Russia and Austria split the Balkans

[Aphrodite]

The Russians made many offers to split the Balkans with the Austrians (Nicholas I offered the Austrians the Western Balkans down to Salonika in return for the Staits and Bulgaria and Romania)

This was kind of a standing Russian offer that the Austrians could probably have gotten at any time. Acceptance had its adherents in Austria, most prominently Beck in the late 1890s. Franz Joseph would never agree but the Archduke who favored reconciliation with Russia had more sympathy

So our POD is that FJ dies in 1901, FF takes the throne and the Balkan violence provides the usual excuse and the partition happens.

Especially interested in views as to how this would affect the British, the Japanese and the Italians

 

[DocJamore]

It wasn't called the "Eastern question" for no reason. Those two dividing the Balkans into blocs would piss the rest of the powers off. If they don't get a share there would be a European war. But if everything went perfectly for Austria and Russia was willing to concede some things for the straits I could see it maybe going like this.

Bosnia: Annexed by Austria-Hungary

Serbia: OTL borders minus the Austrian portion and Macedonia.

Montenegro: Kept independent of Serbia through foreign intervention in order to keep Serbia weak.

Albania: Independent and with OTL borders. Keeps Italy from throwing too much of a fit over being left out. Head of state will be whoever is the best compromise candidate.

Macedonia: Both upper and lower. Capital in Salonika. An "independent" state with a Hapsburg prince as its head. Basically think of an orthodox Belgium but with Greeks and Bulgarians instead of French and Flemish. Greece will not be happy with this.

Bulgaria: Basically gets whatever Macedonia and Romania don't get but they have Thrace so that's something. Greece will not be happy about this. Romanov as head of state.