Just wrapping up an interesting book by Philip Zelikow on how close WW1 came to ending in a negotiated peace of the sort that usually marked European wars in the 1916 and the very beginning of 1917, brokered by the US. Through a series of miscommunications, some likely accidental and some almost certainly deliberate among many of the parties involved, the chance slipped away before the military leadership in Germany was able to push for a resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare, thus basically killing the chance for a negotiated peace. However, until that point, the US under Wilson was haphazardly committed to brokering a peace convention.
Zelikow presents Wilson as somewhat amateurish in his efforts, his agent House as almost bipolar in his obfuscations, Lansing as a complete rogue, and Llyod George as practically tyrannical in his efforts to sabotage the peace efforts (I'm being more charitable in Zelikow's descriptions of the players involved than Zelikow's book is of them). However, the US had a strong card in that it could basically force the Entente to the peace table, and the desires of the Germans that the Americans were aware of were actually quite limited.
So, lets assume that, despite all the personal obstacles to peace, the effort manages to achieve a negotiated peace, with an armistice in late 1916 (though one in early 1916 is not out of the question, either). The borders in Europe are adjusted slightly, but no major changes, except a possible independent Poland. Some colonies change hands, but every single state can tell its own populace that they achieved their war aims. And, of course, 2 more years of bloodshed are avoided. The Russian, German, Austrian, and Ottoman empires all stagger out of the war in various degrees of intact-ness.
What happens next?
Zelikow presents Wilson as somewhat amateurish in his efforts, his agent House as almost bipolar in his obfuscations, Lansing as a complete rogue, and Llyod George as practically tyrannical in his efforts to sabotage the peace efforts (I'm being more charitable in Zelikow's descriptions of the players involved than Zelikow's book is of them). However, the US had a strong card in that it could basically force the Entente to the peace table, and the desires of the Germans that the Americans were aware of were actually quite limited.
So, lets assume that, despite all the personal obstacles to peace, the effort manages to achieve a negotiated peace, with an armistice in late 1916 (though one in early 1916 is not out of the question, either). The borders in Europe are adjusted slightly, but no major changes, except a possible independent Poland. Some colonies change hands, but every single state can tell its own populace that they achieved their war aims. And, of course, 2 more years of bloodshed are avoided. The Russian, German, Austrian, and Ottoman empires all stagger out of the war in various degrees of intact-ness.
What happens next?