Republican Spain wins the Spainish civil war

what would have to happen for the Republicans to win the spainish civil war. If they were able to deafte franco what would happen? How would they respond to WW2?
 
what would have to happen for the Republicans to win the spainish civil war. If they were able to deafte franco what would happen? How would they respond to WW2?
Seems to me there would have to be an assist on the Republican side similar to that given to Franco by Hitler and Mussolini; it's a bit hard to imagine that coming from France, Great Britain or the Soviet Union (and certainly not the rather isolationist United States). The flip side of that is the absence of any aid to Franco by the Fascist powers (perhaps Hitler wasn't entirely successful in consolidating power by 1936, with the SA still a sizable thorn in his side?). I believe that the Fascist aid to Franco tipped the scales, but I could be wrong.

Anyhow, let's say that the Republicans prevailed. That suggests that France might have a modestly benevolent neutral border instead of a potentially hostile border with Spain, which might free up the French to put up more of a resistance to the Wehrmacht (although I question that would have made much difference whatsoever). I think you can forget any Spanish involvement, though. They steered clear of the first World War (when even Portugal got in on the Allied side!) and coming off a bloody internal conflict wouldn't want any part of a general conflict, even at the urging of their patron/quasi-ally Stalin.
 
yea but if they are allies of the USSR wouldn't they be able to send more supplies to them and give the allies a good base to advanced to europe from?
 

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Maybe Spain might turn Communist ???????
This might cause Hitler to Invade after he finishes off France.
 
The army in North Africa does not get ferried across. The US does not deny oil and arms to the legitimate democratically elected gvt. The British accept French arguments to help the legimate gvt of Spain albeit with small amounts of arms.
 
A republican victory ends with german occupation in 1940. Hitler does not want a potential enemy on the south, and also needs to wipe out Gibraltar. The fall of Gibraltar would be a hard blow to the british, but if they are ablo to stay in the war as in OTL, then in 1942 the allies have to liberate Gibraltar before going on to North Africa. It is very likely that Spain would play the role of Italy as the first front in Western Europe.
The spanish republicans only needed better organization to win. If Italy and Germany cannot send Franco weapons and men, they have a good chance.
 
A combined German/Italian invasion of Spain (maybe Portugal too?) in 1940 possibly means less troops in the Balkans. Can Yugoslavia don't be carved and remain a fascist state?
 
A republican Spain would be problematic for Stalin too. The orthodox Communists in Spain were a hopeless minority, the anarchists and syndicalists were stronger. Which also explains why Stalin didn't help them as much as he could've.

I can't imagine Hitler attacking Spain. Not his main interest. Although, if he decides Gibraltar is important enough...

Spain will have suffered under the Civil War ITTL too. So I don't expect them to enter the war against Germany.

BTW, Portugal entered WW1 because the Germans invaded their colonies (Mozambique, Lettow-Vorbeck) first.
 
A combined German/Italian invasion of Spain (maybe Portugal too?) in 1940 possibly means less troops in the Balkans. Can Yugoslavia don't be carved and remain a fascist state?
On those days Portugal was a right wing dictatorship (in spite of its military alliance with England – the world's oldest military alliance, it was signed in the 1300s and lasts till today) that supported the Spanish Nationalists. In case of a Republican Victory in the Civil War, I can imagine the Portuguese helping the Germans invade Spain, maybe for getting Galicia incorporated into Portugal in return.
 
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On those days Portugal was a right wing dictatorship (in spite of its military alliance with England – the world's oldest military alliance, it was signed in the 1300s and lasts till today) that supported the Spanish Nationalists. In case of a Republican Victory in the Civil War, I can imagine the Portuguese helping the Germans invade Spain, maybe for getting Galicia incorporated into Portugal in return.
Why would they do that? They have never claimed Galicia!! Probably Olivenza and Ceuta, but Galicia?
 
Why not?

Why would they do that? They have never claimed Galicia!! Probably Olivenza and Ceuta, but Galicia?
It was not a question of previous claims, or not. Obviously Olivença and Ceuta would be among the spoils. But it was more a matter of politics. It is a scenary where the Republicans win the civil war, Salazar's portuguese government would face a hostil government in a historical adversary nation (rather a friendly political aligned Franco regime like in our OTL). In this case, and considering that Portugal supports the Spanish Nationalists, the surviving Republican regime would look to Portugal as an enemy, both in terms of international politics as well as idiology. Adding to that the historical Spanish ambition to rule a united Iberia.

To counter this, and considering that Hitler would go after a Republican Spain after the fall of France, I can see Salazar supporting such a move and asking in return the return of oth Olivença and Ceuta and the union of the "protoportuguese" (Portuguese language evolved from the galician idiom) speaking Galicia with Portugal. Other changes would, perhaps, be the a appearence of other indepedent countries under facist/nazi regimes in the Peninsula: The Basque Country, Catalunia, and Canary and Balear islands and maybe, even, Granada in the southern part of the Peninsula. This way Salazar would meet his political goals of mantaining an independent Portugal while weakning Spain to such a degree it would no longer be a huge threat.

Please remember that these are sugestions of a possible ATL, so everything is possible, no? Anyway, I always look forward to your input and coments since you seem to be really well versed in Iberic history and social reality.
 
The difference would be in how the republicans win. If they win thorough massive soviet aid, the hard-line communists can impose their will and have a stalinist regime. If the democratic republican governement can get weapons and political support from France, UK and USA, they would be able to eventually regain control of the army from the communists and the militias. (In OTL, the communists did disarm the anarchist and troskist militias during the war).
A communist republic would be a major headhache for Hitler. After the fall of France, he would have to attack the soviets leaving behind a soviet Spain, potential base for attacks. If he goes for Spain first, Stalin would not be taken by suprise and might even attack himself.
A pro-western spanish republic would be crushed in 1940, right after France.
 
Spain would be no walkover for the Germans. They would have to invade over the Pyrenees as the Med coast of France was Vichy and the Royal Navy would make it impossible for them to ferry troops from the French Atlantic ports. Even if they hugged the coast line the Spanish and allied ships and planes would make it very risky indeed.

Getting the Panzers into Spain would be next to impossible and would mean no spare troops for North Africa. Italian help would mean little as the ships and supplies would end up on the bottom of the Med as in OTL. It would mean a major amphibious operation akin to what would be required for Sea Lion so the threat of the invasion of Britain would disappear and the impossibility of the invasion of Spain would be apparent. The whole strategic thrust of Hitler in the West and even the plans for Barbarossa would be in peril.

No aid for Italy in Greece and no Afrika Corp means Allied victory in North Africa and a huge setback for the Axis in the Balkans. A delay in Barbarossa means a worse result for Germany.

I agree with Karlos that the nature of the Republican win would influence the German plans and if the new government was Stalinist then he could not leave it alone when the invasion of the USSR began. That would be fatal for German strategy. If it was democratic, then Portugal would not be much of a threat. They would be very unlikely to ally with the Axis since their whole overseas empire would be lost almost overnight and they could expect very little to no aid. The Spanish forces would be battle hardened and more than adequate to defeat Portugal.
 
On the other hand, if the Stalinists win in Spain then the West might be more worried by Communist expansionism then they were in OTL. Maybe when Hitler proposes an Alliance with Britain agains the Soviets he is not so coldly rejected now that the Communists appear more dangerous. Perhaps the Allies are willing to accept the loss of Poland, on the assumption that giving the Germans and Soviets a common border will encourage them to fight?
 
My theory is that if the Republicans win early, Spain stays democratic.

If the Republicans win late, Spain becomes a Communist dictatorship. I read somewhere that at the end of the war, the Republican army had political commissars--not a good sign.

I wonder if a defeated Franco can withdraw into North Africa and set up a "traditional Spain in exile." IIRC his Arab troops all but worshiped him, so it could be done.
 
Assume an early Republican win and a non Stalinist Spain I have two queries

1) In OTL did France keep any forces on the Spanish border in case of Franco?

2) Would a Democratic spain join the allies. It is worth noting that the only natons that decided to go to war with the Nazis were Britain, France and dominions. (Others were attacked- often after non aggression pacts.)

3) Would a few Spanish divisions have made much of a difference.




Oh and was there any chance of a fairly radical left but non Stalinist group winning?
 
Spain was pretty bled white after the war. I don't expect they have the power to join WW2, if they don't have to.

I don't think a few divisions could've made a difference. Unless of course the German Manstein plan is butterflied away, which could happen.

The non-Stalinists could win in this case. Difficult to tell who'd win - Socialists, Syndicalists, democratic republicans? I only excluded the Anarchists.
 
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