Until the 1970s, it is more likely that what we call the "Left-Nationalist Government" (nationalist dictatorship + social-democratic policy), maybe with a touch of moderate Islamism (as we say in European conservative parties - non-religious, but respecting traditions). Alas, but there are feudal orders reigning and this country is poor in resources, so for the time being it will have to be delayed with socialism (although cities like Kabul will be inclined to modernization).Anyone have any opinions on what's likely to happen in Afghanistan?
So far I'm of the opinion that the Comintern at first just replaces the King with a pro-comintern one so that they don't have to commit any troops to occupying it in Afghanistan's brief entry into the war for the Axis, but may push more radical change in later decades.
In the 70s, modernization and radicalization of consciousness took place. OTL - progressive nationalists came to power. I think that the Moderate Socialists will come to power, striving to reduce national tension. But here there will be two fronts of dissatisfied - radicals (Trotskyites, Left Communists, non-Pashtun nationalists), and paleo-conservatives (Pashtun nationalists, Islamic fundamentalists).