France and the UK were able to absorb substantial colonies post-WW1 OTL. Why would A-H not be able to? It's going to magically fall apart for some reason?
Q: How much could the Austrian-Hungarian Empire have expanded if the Central Powers had won WWI (without screwing its internal stability) ?
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France and the UK were able to absorb substantial colonies post-WW1 OTL. Why would A-H not be able to? It's going to magically fall apart for some reason?
They had already a great colonial empire and for them it was just to increase their zone of influence , A-H will not only basically build everything from scratch in term of administration and skill but at the same time will need to face the postwar trouble...and yes any post 1917 victory mean that A-H will fall apart, not by magic but for all the previous troubles that the nation had that will be increased by the war and even added some more. Even the leaderships knows that after a certain date even in victory the empire will have been history or in the best case just the first of the servant of Germany... and the big problem in every late CP victory timeline is that: In OTL the nations of the entente faced in the years after the war a lot of economic, social and political strife, Italy fallen to the fascist after the red two-years, France almost gone fascist in 1934 and was full of problem and division, the UK become more insular and saw the financial and political primacy disappear but Germany and co. no, they magically avoid this for some reason
Nabbing a couple of small African colonies is pretty easy compared to holding down Bosnia, for example.
I completely disagree with your determinism on the date of AH post-1917. OTL it survived well into late ‘18, and only collapsed once the army dissolved. Why would that occur here? Why would the Germans allow it to happen, even if the risk were as great as you think? AH may well have troubles similar to those of the OTL victorious Entente... none of which came close to collapse. With German support and the capacity to economically exploit Eastern Europe the chance of it collapsing due to troubles seems pretty remote.
One thing is to hold while there is a war with the enemy right in front of you and defending your land, collapse in revolution russian style are not that common and the rest of the entente nation had faced the bulk of the problem after the guns fell silent. It will occur here because after the war the soldiers will want reform and the enstablishment will be not really keen to give them, not in the way they want; also considering that none of the pre-war problems has been resolved and there is the economy in trash, revolution right beyond the border in the east and a goverment system more complicated than the European Union.
Germany will help? Sure but they will also have their problem between the socialist also wanting reform, the economy needed to be rebuild (in case of victory that public loan will need to be repaid instead of being considered void as OTL) and absorb the new empire in the east, a feat that will need a lot of effort (plus it will hardly fun as the local population were already not very happy of the current arrangement) and frankly this help will be of the enough to keep A-H alive but remain dependent on Germany by design, after all by the end of the war they were already a whole owned subsidiary of the German Empire giving even less legitimancy at the goverment
A-h is like Loky in the Avengers, there is no scenario where she come in tops, even if she is among the winner, at least if we are talking of anything past 16/17
Deleted member 94680
All said with a bit of an anti-Austrian bias, no?
What reforms will the Common Army want, given it was a bulwark of the regime and virtually one of the only institutions after 1867 that united the peoples of the Empire?
A victorious War will be a fillip to the Hapsburgs, not a detriment. OTL the route cause of the collapse of the Empire was, bizarrely, the faith the populace had in the Emperor and the degree to which they believed the propaganda on how well the War was going. Once the truth was revealed and the privations of the late War supply and financial situation began to bite (which one would assume would not be present in an ATL successful War scenario) the populace rapidly turned against the regime. It was because they held the Emperor in such high regard that the failures of the late War were reacted to so extremely.
The effect of the Peace Treaties can’t be underestimated either. When the surviving Great Powers removed 60 and 70-odd percent of the territory of the two halves of the Empire, it’s all well and good decrying the ability of the Empire to remain united, but the dissolution wasn’t a singularly domestic phenomenon.
Maybe if Austria-Hungary follows those plans of real federalization, with the creation of a multi-ethnic organization of states which might overcome the dualist Austrian & Hungarian concept and replace it by a more true multi-ethnic concept of state, they will increase their internal stability and also incorporate new territories of their interest without such high levels of resentment.
The ideal of Mitteleuropa would fit much better in a federalized evolution of A_H rather than those backward Prussian concept of a German Empire with puppetized satellital duchies.
The ideal of Mitteleuropa would fit much better in a federalized evolution of A_H rather than those backward Prussian concept of a German Empire with puppetized satellital duchies.
Something like this, but United States of Central Europe would be more neutral. The Habsburgs could be just figurehead Emperors, but I would say that in the medium term it would drift into a Republican regime (if the Germans eventually allow it).
It would work better if the states are not specifically attached to national denominations i.e. better State of Bohemia & Moravia rather than State of the Czechs/Czechia or so, in order to make the Sudetenland Germans more comfortable.
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I agree with what seems to be the consensus here, that after a CP win, the A-H Empire would focus far more on internal consolidation than external expansion. We know what most of the eastern border would've looked like due to the 1918 Treaty of Bucharest:
As for the rest of A-H's borders, I wouldn't expect too much to change, except possibly in the west with Italy. In Galicia, the situation was not really clear, as none of the proposals for the borders for Germany's client 1916 Kingdom of Poland had been accepted before things fell apart in OTL. In the south, possibly some minor border revision in favor of the Bosnia province at Serbia's expense. I'd suggest a restoration of the pre-1908 occupied district in Novi Pazar to split Montenegro from the Serbian rump state, but that's just me 
. That would also provide a direct link between A-H and Macedonia, which would presumably go to Bulgaria a la the discarded San Stefano treaty from 1878.
As for Italy, I think Friulia should definitely be taken by A-H, to push the border away from the ever-disputed "Julian March" area. Also I doubt the locals would object too strongly to the change. I get the objections that some have raised to the idea of a vassal state in Venetia, but a buffer between A-H and an even more irredentist Italy would be hard to resist, even if it meant re-building a sense of distinct Venetian identity from scratch. Venetia, Belluno and the portion of Mantua left to A-H after 1859 should definitely be included, so as to include the Quadrilatero fortress-and-road network built up in the 1800's. (I even have a monarch in mind for the "throne", but I can't divulge who she is b/c I may work it into a TL at some point)
I think creating an Austrian-protected state in Albania is an excellent idea, and I think there's 3 good reasons the Albanians would be on board - the Serbs, the Italians, and the Greeks. The Serbs had already attempted to swallow up the entire northern half of Albania during the Balkan Wars; the Greeks had attempted to take a slice of the south; the Italians had long wanted to bring Albania into their "sphere" to secure control of the Adriatic. The Austrians would've been viewed as suitably neutral and remote enough outside power to preserve Albania's borders against its acquisitive neighbors, restore order (Albania's internal politics were in complete chaos throughout WWI), and preserve Albanian nationality, so long as they didn't meddle too much in local affairs.
. That would also provide a direct link between A-H and Macedonia, which would presumably go to Bulgaria a la the discarded San Stefano treaty from 1878.As for Italy, I think Friulia should definitely be taken by A-H, to push the border away from the ever-disputed "Julian March" area. Also I doubt the locals would object too strongly to the change. I get the objections that some have raised to the idea of a vassal state in Venetia, but a buffer between A-H and an even more irredentist Italy would be hard to resist, even if it meant re-building a sense of distinct Venetian identity from scratch. Venetia, Belluno and the portion of Mantua left to A-H after 1859 should definitely be included, so as to include the Quadrilatero fortress-and-road network built up in the 1800's. (I even have a monarch in mind for the "throne", but I can't divulge who she is b/c I may work it into a TL at some point
) I think creating an Austrian-protected state in Albania is an excellent idea, and I think there's 3 good reasons the Albanians would be on board - the Serbs, the Italians, and the Greeks. The Serbs had already attempted to swallow up the entire northern half of Albania during the Balkan Wars; the Greeks had attempted to take a slice of the south; the Italians had long wanted to bring Albania into their "sphere" to secure control of the Adriatic. The Austrians would've been viewed as suitably neutral and remote enough outside power to preserve Albania's borders against its acquisitive neighbors, restore order (Albania's internal politics were in complete chaos throughout WWI), and preserve Albanian nationality, so long as they didn't meddle too much in local affairs.
France and the UK were much more centralized governments with more efficient tax systems and established colonial empires.
Austria-Hungary as an economy was as wealthy as France pre-war sure, but this economy was not well set up to support colonialism.
And I must say, I have never heard of Austria Hungary WANTING any colonies. They wanted to set up the Balkans (or at least Serbia and Romania) to their liking and had some interest in Russian Poland and Ukraine. Nothing about grabbing colonies.
fasquardon
Them getting colonies was mostly idle speculation on my part, it's entirely plausible that they wouldn't but a victorious CP would likely want to ring some prestige out of the Entente. One possible way would be to collect a few colonies for AH. My suggestion was the Italian ones, as Libya is very close and East Africa not that far off either. This is a very modest collection, and to be blunt if Italy can hold them so could a victorious AH. Still, it's certainly not going to be at the top of their list of priorities.
Libya could have maybe some value to A-H. On the other hand, Germany might prefer not to upset Italy too much or might return it to the Ottomans who'd lost it only in 1911.
fasquardon
Certainly both those options are also plausible. I could also see the Germans taking it for themselves.
Italy betrayed the CP, so yeah either they give it to ottomans, austrians or keep it themselves
If anybody want Libya, well the answer of any italian goverment will be a: you are welcome and good luck. Post war we needed 10 years of brutal desert warfare to subdue the Senussi and with basically nobody to help them...if other want have the pleasure and yes i include the Ottoman as they have done a lot of big promise to the Senussi Emir, promise that they haven't any intention of keep, well yeah good luck.
Regarding Albania, again good luck, the place was more or less in anarchy and without any goverment now and needed years to stabilize and there is Serbia that will be also in need of pacification
No, I simply a look to A-H without the rosy tinted eyes; was a nation more fit to the 18th century than to the 20th everybody knows it but were also scared of any type of change so instead of reforming in the last 50 years they kicked the can as much as they can...unfortunely there are limit at this.
A victorious war? Maybe, but this is not a victorious war, this is surviving the most great bloodshed know to man till that moment, loser or winner at this level are meaningless word, too much blood, too much treasure spent and the new emperor surely don't have the same respect of old Franz Joseph.
Frankly can A-h survive something like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biennio_Rosso? No, at least not without a lot of German help and not only will come to a price, it will also not be eternal as they will have their own internal problem.
Good luck not only in bringing on board the Hungarian but also anybody in Wien that don't want give up power; you need some ideological glue to overcome this, if we are talking about a communist or fascist takeover i can agree as ideology will be what will keep things (more or less) together, otherwise there is no incentive especially due to the fact that everyone will know that the one really calling the shots of this nation live in Berlin; because at the moment the backward Prussian are the one in charge, even if they have their own troubles.
Sorry but any Mitteleuropa will be basically Germany that command his puppet for his own advantages give everybody else some crumbs, sure they will not the nazi but basically it will be what the sovranist/conspirationist say of the modern EU is.
Regarding Albania, again good luck, the place was more or less in anarchy and without any goverment now and needed years to stabilize and there is Serbia that will be also in need of pacification
No, I simply a look to A-H without the rosy tinted eyes; was a nation more fit to the 18th century than to the 20th everybody knows it but were also scared of any type of change so instead of reforming in the last 50 years they kicked the can as much as they can...unfortunely there are limit at this.
A victorious war? Maybe, but this is not a victorious war, this is surviving the most great bloodshed know to man till that moment, loser or winner at this level are meaningless word, too much blood, too much treasure spent and the new emperor surely don't have the same respect of old Franz Joseph.
Frankly can A-h survive something like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biennio_Rosso? No, at least not without a lot of German help and not only will come to a price, it will also not be eternal as they will have their own internal problem.
Good luck not only in bringing on board the Hungarian but also anybody in Wien that don't want give up power; you need some ideological glue to overcome this, if we are talking about a communist or fascist takeover i can agree as ideology will be what will keep things (more or less) together, otherwise there is no incentive especially due to the fact that everyone will know that the one really calling the shots of this nation live in Berlin; because at the moment the backward Prussian are the one in charge, even if they have their own troubles.
Sorry but any Mitteleuropa will be basically Germany that command his puppet for his own advantages give everybody else some crumbs, sure they will not the nazi but basically it will be what the sovranist/conspirationist say of the modern EU is.
If the Austrians pushed for the full partition of Serbia and used Bulgaria (and possible protectorate of Albania) to lighten the load they might be able to pull off full annexation.
1. Push the Bulgarian, Macedonian border up to match the autonomous Bulgarian Exarchate (left). This also has some basis in history going off of the conference of Constantinople (center). Finally, give Bulgaria the rest of Serbian land east of the Serbian Great Morava river (right)
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
2. If Albania submits to protectorate status you could grease the wheels so to speak by giving them Kosovo and southern Montenegro, as a more restrained take(left) if you wanted to have the minors share as much of the load as possible because of Austria Hungary being to weak you could also go for the nationalist maximum northern Albania (right)
en.wikipedia.org
3. The Austrians should be able to annex the rest of Serbia and Montenegro (you might need federalism or trialism but it should be partitioned enough to be stable without it)
1. Push the Bulgarian, Macedonian border up to match the autonomous Bulgarian Exarchate (left). This also has some basis in history going off of the conference of Constantinople (center). Finally, give Bulgaria the rest of Serbian land east of the Serbian Great Morava river (right)
Bulgarian Exarchate - Wikipedia
Bulgarian irredentism - Wikipedia
Greater Albania - Wikipedia
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I would say that an anticipated vision of EU might work for this case: the Austrians play the role of today's Germany, enjoying the great advantages of a large captive market in their surrounding while the other nations enjoy the industrialization, the common (strong) currency and the improved life standards that such union can provide to them.
Today's EU is not glued by ideologies or religion, but by money...and money proved to be a good glue (except for Brexiters).
No, it's glued at the core by the prospect that a third round of the previous unpleaseantness need to be averted and the fact that while the degree of influence are variable, in general all members are more or less equal and democracies.
Your Mitteleuropa it's just a German show used as a framework for the sole prosperity of the German nation...as this was the original plan and why the Austrian will want to play the role you give them? They had so much trouble at home and are by now a dependent of Germany, plus before the war and even during they had found extremely difficult do any serious reform.
Seriously, in any Mitteleuropa the Hapburg Empire will count nothing, it's just the first servant of the German Empire, sure with some privilege and the illusion that's an independent power, for old time sake but everyone will know the truth.
You want something similar to the actual EU? Not with this framework, there are no incentive for the enstablishment and it's out of their way of thinking that's basically like talking of an alien civilization
I think the Bulgarians would need to be "restrained" somewhat at the peace conference... I know they wanted to annex Serbian territory atw up to the Morava, but including that many ethnic Serbs in Greater Bulgaria would be nothing but a recipe for trouble. Perhaps a narrower strip of Serb territory, providing a link between Bulgaria and A-H in the vicinity of Orsova at the Iron Gates, would've satisfied the Bulgarians with less potential future conflict.If the Austrians pushed for the full partition of Serbia and used Bulgaria (and possible protectorate of Albania) to lighten the load they might be able to pull off full annexation.
1. Push the Bulgarian, Macedonian border up to match the autonomous Bulgarian Exarchate (left). This also has some basis in history going off of the conference of Constantinople (center). Finally, give Bulgaria the rest of Serbian land east of the Serbian Great Morava river (right)
View attachment 554464View attachment 554465View attachment 554466
Bulgarian Exarchate - Wikipedia
2. If Albania submits to protectorate status you could grease the wheels so to speak by giving them Kosovo and southern Montenegro, as a more restrained take(left) if you wanted to have the minors share as much of the load as possible because of Austria Hungary being to weak you could also go for the nationalist maximum northern Albania (right)Bulgarian irredentism - Wikipedia
View attachment 554471View attachment 554473
3. the Austrians should be able to annex the rest of Serbia and Montenegro (you might need federalism or trialism but it should be partitioned enough to be stable)Greater Albania - Wikipedia
I think control of what's left of Serbia would be best resolved by exiling the Karadordevics and installing a more compliant monarch - maybe someone from the Petrovic-Njegos of Montenegro, since they were the last link of the extinct pro-Austrian Obrenovics.
The Albanian "state" should definitely get most of Kosovo, maybe the area between the Serbian borders of 1878, and the border of Macedonia claimed by the Bulgarians. Also some of Chameria in Greece might be added. To propose further expansion eastward would conflict with Bulgarian claims in Macedonia, which would have priority, and also bring a lot of non-ethnic-Albanians into an already unstable political situation.