Q: How much could the Austrian-Hungarian Empire have expanded if the Central Powers had won WWI (without screwing its internal stability) ?

[Mario]

No, it's glued at the core by the prospect that a third round of the previous unpleaseantness need to be averted and the fact that while the degree of influence are variable, in general all members are more or less equal and democracies.

This might be somehow true at its origin, but if the EU still exists today is not because of fear of an eventual WWIII (with NATO would be enough for that).
And 'all members are more or less equal' it's blatantly false...and the democratic quality of some Eastern members is quite debatable. Money rules EU today for good or bad, nothing more, nothing less.

Your Mitteleuropa it's just a German show used as a framework for the sole prosperity of the German nation...as this was the original plan and why the Austrian will want to play the role you give them? They had so much trouble at home and are by now a dependent of Germany, plus before the war and even during they had found extremely difficult do any serious reform.
Seriously, in any Mitteleuropa the Hapburg Empire will count nothing, it's just the first servant of the German Empire, sure with some privilege and the illusion that's an independent power, for old time sake but everyone will know the truth.

You are assuming that Austria would be happy playing the German puppy once the war is finished, but I think that it is likely that they might separate in the medium term, getting back to the 1860s situation.

 

[lukedalton]

This might be somehow true at its origin, but if the EU still exists today is not because of fear of an eventual WWIII (with NATO would be enough for that).
And 'all members are more or less equal' it's blatantly false...and the democratic quality of some Eastern members is quite debatable. Money rules EU today for good or bad, nothing more, nothing less.

If it is only money or what you say about equality was true, the union, money or not money will have been over long time ago; and btw i was not talking about an external enemy it was to tie the various goverment together in a manner that disputes will have never reached the war level before. Regarding the members equality being false, well it's your opinion, from my pow even some little country can stop agreement and politics with her vote...and this is pretty important

You are assuming that Austria would be happy playing the German puppy once the war is finished, but I think that it is likely that they might separate in the medium term, getting back to the 1860s situation.

You are assuming that Austria will have any say on it, even by OTL 1917 it was heavily dependent on Germany and they will need Berlin help in the immediate postwar and a lot after, all this come to a price...even if they don't like t, Austria unless is not engulfed in a communist or fascist revolution will be Germany little puppy till something of big happen, like Berlin decide that the effort is no more worthy and decide to dismember the place.

 

[marathag]

Regarding Albania, again good luck, the place was more or less in anarchy and without any goverment now and needed years to stabilize and there is Serbia that will be also in need of pacification

Anarchy from what Serb and Montenegrin troops did in the previous Balkan Wars, not that long ago.
Austrians would not have been doing the atrocities that the Turks, Serbs and Italians did to encourage that response from the people. Unlike them, Austria didn't mind that they spoke Albanian and were Roman Catholic in the North or Muslim in the South.
Near all the States that comprised Austro-Hungaria, realized that while Independence was great, they would get a better deal under them than under any of their neighbors.

 

[Mikey]

The Austrians are not going to pursue colonies overseas: a single concession in China isn't the beginning of a colonial empire. To the south, border adjustments with Italy assume that the Central Powers win, AND that Italy enters the war against them regardless, right? If Italy is neutral, or allied to Austria, they're going to be a rival for influence elsewhere, rather than a target for Hapsburg expansion.

The Central Powers *did* defeat Romania, and the Treaty of Bucharest mostly gives territorial concessions to Bulgaria, with some minor border shifts for Austria. Serbia is likely annexed (that is the primary reason for the war, after all), though that's clearly going to screw with internal stability. Montenegro might become a protectorate or annexed outright. Italy probably gains influence in Albania ahead of Austria, however.

That leaves Russia. As with Romania, the Central Powers DID impose a treaty on defeated Russia, and there weren't any border adjustments in favor of Austria. Germany had already proven hesitant to expand Austrian power in Poland, and internally, Hungary especially wasn't interested in being part of a yet-more-Slavic empire.

 

[marathag]

Serbia is likely annexed (that is the primary reason for the war, after all),

Not annexed, punished for regicide.

 

[lukedalton]

Anarchy from what Serb and Montenegrin troops did in the previous Balkan Wars, not that long ago.
Austrians would not have been doing the atrocities that the Turks, Serbs and Italians did to encourage that response from the people. Unlike them, Austria didn't mind that they spoke Albanian and were Roman Catholic in the North or Muslim in the South.
Near all the States that comprised Austro-Hungaria, realized that while Independence was great, they would get a better deal under them than under any of their neighbors.

Anarchy was much due to the colera epidemic and the fact that the goverment and the Price were chased away in 1914, basically there were the muslim and the catholic tribes that fight each others for the control of the place.
Austria will have to support someone for controlling the nation and this mean that the others will start to fight back, not considering the Greek minority in the south and that the place really was just at the early stage of nationhood...basically it's more like Somalia.

 

[fasquardon]

Today's EU is not glued by ideologies or religion, but by money...and money proved to be a good glue (except for Brexiters).

The EU is TOTALLY an ideological project. It's applying the ideology of the American Revolution to European problems.

fasquardon

 

[Mario]

If it is only money or what you say about equality was true, the union, money or not money will have been over long time ago; and btw i was not talking about an external enemy it was to tie the various goverment together in a manner that disputes will have never reached the war level before. Regarding the members equality being false, well it's your opinion, from my pow even some little country can stop agreement and politics with her vote...and this is pretty important.

Yeah, so many times Germany changed their European policies because the Maltese were anger...on paper EU could resemble something else, but at the end of the day this is Mitteleuropa on steroids, that's it. Not something I am mad about it, just reality.

You are assuming that Austria will have any say on it, even by OTL 1917 it was heavily dependent on Germany and they will need Berlin help in the immediate postwar and a lot after, all this come to a price...even if they don't like t, Austria unless is not engulfed in a communist or fascist revolution will be Germany little puppy till something of big happen, like Berlin decide that the effort is no more worthy and decide to dismember the place.

So basically you are saying that Austria had to choose between some authoritarian revolution or accept to be the poodle of Germany until Berlin decides to behead it and incorporate German Austria to the Empire and kick the rest to the trash can? I guess that if alt-Austrian politicians smell that, they would try to distance themselves from Berlin whenever the economy rebound from WWI strife.

The EU is TOTALLY an ideological project. It's applying the ideology of the American Revolution to European problems.

Today EU members are extremely diverse ideologically-wise, so I can't see the ideological project anywhere today (maybe in the 1950s). Only money keeps it breathing, let's face that because that's the truth of the matter.

 

[lukedalton]

Yeah, so many times Germany changed their European policies because the Maltese were anger...on paper EU could resemble something else, but at the end of the day this is Mitteleuropa on steroids, that's it. Not something I am mad about it, just reality.

I'm from Italy dude and if I for one i tell you that's BS on epic scale say alot

So basically you are saying that Austria had to choose between some authoritarian revolution or accept to be the poodle of Germany until Berlin decides to behead it and incorporate German Austria to the Empire and kick the rest to the trash can? I guess that if alt-Austrian politicians smell that, they would try to distance themselves from Berlin whenever the economy rebound from WWI strife.

Bingo and you want to know the 'better' part? They already know that, why do you think they tried their pathetic attempt at a separate peace? No, Austria unless there is a total change of regime will become the loyal pe...ehm sorry ally of Germany as his existence and the well being of the upper scale depend on it

Today EU members are extremely diverse ideologically-wise, so I can't see the ideological project anywhere today (maybe in the 1950s). Only money keeps it breathing, let's face that because that's the truth of the matter.

Thanks to have told me that, i just live here and i have not understand it, thanks again, sure between the 2008 crisis and the pandemic, the migrant crisis and russia deciding to flex his muscle if the Union will be based only on the money will have already fallen or btw if based only on money Brexit will have never happened...but better not consider such detail

 

[Mario]

I'm from Italy dude and if I for one i tell you that's BS on epic scale say alot

Thanks to have told me that, i just live here and i have not understand it, thanks again, sure between the 2008 crisis and the pandemic, the migrant crisis and russia deciding to flex his muscle if the Union will be based only on the money will have already fallen or btw if based only on money Brexit will have never happened...but better not consider such detail

I don't know how is the perception there in our brother nation, but here in Spain any kind of European project based on ideology and sentiment was thrown to the river during the 2008 crisis and now it's even worse with the current pandemic crisis and some Northern countries comments on the South.

People only expect money from EU, nothing else.

 

[Mikey]

So basically you are saying that Austria had to choose between some authoritarian revolution or accept to be the poodle of Germany until Berlin decides to behead it and incorporate German Austria to the Empire and kick the rest to the trash can? I guess that if alt-Austrian politicians smell that, they would try to distance themselves from Berlin whenever the economy rebound from WWI strife.

Austria can do a lot of different things. But realigning itself away from Germany, especially right after a dramatic victory won because of German military might deployed on behalf of the Austrian heir, is going to take an enormous amount of political will and diplomatic maneuvering. All to achieve a purpose which isn't really clear anyway — what suffering has Germany inflicted on Austria that it so desperately needs to escape? They're not going to leave the alliance in order to stake a claim to Poland, which they'll struggle to make anything of anyway, and which would be opposed by Hungary.

If there's an angle on it here, it's probably going to come from Hungarian politicians, and not Austrian ones, and probably because the Austrians are *too* friendly to Germany and too influenced by German nationalism. If Hungary starts asserting itself (it will bitterly resist attempts to form a triple-monarchy), then Austrian leadership will probably be still *more* dependent on Germany.

 

[Mario]

If there's an angle on it here, it's probably going to come from Hungarian politicians, and not Austrian ones, and probably because the Austrians are *too* friendly to Germany and too influenced by German nationalism. If Hungary starts asserting itself (it will bitterly resist attempts to form a triple-monarchy), then Austrian leadership will probably be still *more* dependent on Germany.

The best strategy with Hungary would be to introduce a policy of effective federalization and 'chop' Croatia, Upper Hungary (=Slovakia) and Transylvania away. Hungarian opinions should not count more than the Czech or South Slavic ones if the Empire (or whatever successor entity) wanted to keep working for longer time.

 

[Mikey]

The best strategy with Hungary would be to introduce a policy of effective federalization and 'chop' Croatia, Upper Hungary (=Slovakia) and Transylvania away. Hungarian opinions should not count more than the Czech or South Slavic ones if the Empire (or whatever successor entity) wanted to keep working for longer time.

I mean, I don't think that's a bad idea overall, but it's also a recipe for the end of the Austro-Hungarian Empire; it's more or less the exact thing that Hungary was most concerned about. Hungary already had enough constitutional powers to make sure this kind of thing wouldn't happen without them, so getting it through would require some kind of political revolution on behalf of the Emperor, or else some kind of civil war.

It's also going to be particularly challenging because the new Emperor, Karl I, was very young (31), inexperienced, and raw even for a new monarch; he only became the heir because of Franz Ferdinand's death, and had not been expected to ever reign.

 

[Mario]

I mean, I don't think that's a bad idea overall, but it's also a recipe for the end of the Austro-Hungarian Empire; it's more or less the exact thing that Hungary was most concerned about. Hungary already had enough constitutional powers to make sure this kind of thing wouldn't happen without them, so getting it through would require some kind of political revolution on behalf of the Emperor, or else some kind of civil war.

It's also going to be particularly challenging because the new Emperor, Karl I, was very young (31), inexperienced, and raw even for a new monarch; he only became the heir because of Franz Ferdinand's death, and had not been expected to ever reign.

Well, this will obviously not happen during the immediate aftermath of WWI, I was thinking about maybe during the 1930s.

Federalization could be asymetric, conceded first to Bohemia, Galizia or even Tyrol...if the trend consolidates, Hungary could not resist it as their internal demands (Croats, Romanians, Slovaks...) could not be stopped for long in such scenario.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

An out of the box solution (and one I’m not convinced would be possible) is to allow the Hungarian half of the Empire - minus Croatia-Slavonia - to become independent whilst maybe retaining Karl as monarch?

Cut them loose and allow the Magyars all the rule they want whilst concentrating on re-centralising Cisleithania and elevating the Croatians to the second tier.

 

[marathag]

But realigning itself away from Germany, especially right after a dramatic victory won because of German military might deployed on behalf of the Austrian heir, is going to take an enormous amount of political will and diplomatic maneuvering.

They have a history of that, see relations with Russia after 1849, in exchange for beating down the Hungarian rebels, did nothing to help them in 1854

 

[Mikey]

An out of the box solution (and one I’m not convinced would be possible) is to allow the Hungarian half of the Empire - minus Croatia-Slavonia - to become independent whilst maybe retaining Karl as monarch?

Cut them loose and allow the Magyars all the rule they want whilst concentrating on re-centralising Cisleithania and elevating the Croatians to the second tier.

It's a thought, anyway. The balance is going to be pretty difficult. One odd thing here is that there was really only ever the one Austro-Hungarian emperor except for the very end: upon the establishment of the dual monarchy in 1867, Franz Joseph had already reigned for almost 20 years. He died in 1916 - so it's hard to even really say if there was anyone else who could plausibly rule both countries, regardless of the constitutional arrangement. Karl ruled so briefly, and in such extreme circumstances, it's hard to really attribute much to him.

 

[lukedalton]

They have a history of that, see relations with Russia after 1849, in exchange for beating down the Hungarian rebels, did nothing to help them in 1854

it's a different situation and frankly they are much much more linked with the Germans in both political and economic terms (always as the junior patner naturally) post 1918 than to the Russian post 1848; a more apt example is Nazi Germany and fascist Italy in 1942, nominally allies but everyone know who really call the shots

 

[CalBear]

If it is only money or what you say about equality was true, the union, money or not money will have been over long time ago; and btw i was not talking about an external enemy it was to tie the various goverment together in a manner that disputes will have never reached the war level before. Regarding the members equality being false, well it's your opinion, from my pow even some little country can stop agreement and politics with her vote...and this is pretty important



You are assuming that Austria will have any say on it, even by OTL 1917 it was heavily dependent on Germany and they will need Berlin help in the immediate postwar and a lot after, all this come to a price...even if they don't like t, Austria unless is not engulfed in a communist or fascist revolution will be Germany little puppy till something of big happen, like Berlin decide that the effort is no more worthy and decide to dismember the place.

The EU is TOTALLY an ideological project. It's applying the ideology of the American Revolution to European problems.

fasquardon

Yeah, so many times Germany changed their European policies because the Maltese were anger...on paper EU could resemble something else, but at the end of the day this is Mitteleuropa on steroids, that's it. Not something I am mad about it, just reality.



So basically you are saying that Austria had to choose between some authoritarian revolution or accept to be the poodle of Germany until Berlin decides to behead it and incorporate German Austria to the Empire and kick the rest to the trash can? I guess that if alt-Austrian politicians smell that, they would try to distance themselves from Berlin whenever the economy rebound from WWI strife.



Today EU members are extremely diverse ideologically-wise, so I can't see the ideological project anywhere today (maybe in the 1950s). Only money keeps it breathing, let's face that because that's the truth of the matter.

Interesting current political discussion.

Please move it to Chat.

 

[Mario]

If I could design the federalization of Austria-Hungary I will set the following states:

- (German) Austria: including Upper and Lower Austria and Salzburg, mostly German.
- Styria: German with Slovene minority.
- Carinthia: same as Styria.
- Tyrol-Vorarlberg: German with Italian minority.
- Carniola: Slovene with German minority.
- Bohemia-Moravia: including Upper Silesia, Czech with important German minority.
- Upper Hungary: Slovak with Hungarian and Ruthenian minorities.
- Lower Hungary: mostly Hungarian with some German minorities.
- Transylvania: pretty multi-ethnic.
- Bukovina: mix of Romanian and Ukrainian.
- Galizia-Lodomeria: mix of Polish and Ukrainian. It might include some of New Galizia taken from Congress Poland.
- Banat: same as Transylvania.
- Vojvodina: mix of Hungarian and Serbian.
- Croatia (without Dalmatia): mostly Croatian with some Serbian minority.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina: mix of South Slavic ethnicities. It might include some parts taken from Montenegro.
- Dalmatia: Croatian with Italian minority.
- Optional --> Friuli-Venice: parts taken from Friuli and Veneto, adding the Kustenland. Italian with some Slovene and Croatian minorities.

In the most wanking case, Serbia (north), Montenegro, Albania, Wallachia, Moldova and Bessarabia could be also eventual states.