Q: A Western version of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk possible?

[Mario]

Let's assume a scenario where France suffers a revolt at some time during WWI because of bad perspectives at war (the US are finally not involved and the Germans keep on successfully advancing, or something like that), famine, political strife or whatever cause which leads to the French government to be deposed and replaced by another one which have no other realistic option than seeking a treaty of peace with the Central Powers.

Would the Central Powers intent or be able to impose to France a treaty with similar conditions of the IOTL Brest-Litovsk? Would the UK (specially if the US remains neutral) be able to stop such thing?

Similar conditions would mean that France might renounce to bordering territories which would be either annexed or converted in buffer states puppetized by the CP. This would surely include also Belgium and Luxembourg. Some Prussian leaders dreamed about setting the western border along the Meuse.

 

[Riain]

Germany wanted different things in the west compared to the east. The western powers had the ability to block Germany from global markets so punitive measures with regards to territory will likely be counterproductive. German political and industry leaders knew that Mitteleuropa was no substitute for access to world trade.

 

[Analytical Engine]

I could see Germany enforcing a demilitarised zone in eastern France.

Maybe small parts of northern France might be snipped off to give to Belgium, in exchange for Germany annexing Luxembourg and Belgian Luxembourg.

The UK wouldn't be happy with such a dominant Germany, and it would try to ameliorate things where possible.

Also, there aren't really any ethnic minorities in eastern France to create puppet states out of. Trying to annex all the way to the Meuse would lead to millions of very angry French-speaking subjects in Germany.

 

[Mario]

Also, there aren't really any ethnic minorities in eastern France to create puppet states out of. Trying to annex all the way to the Meuse would lead to millions of very angry French-speaking subjects in Germany.

Well, probably Germany would follow the same philosophy of the annexation of A-L in 1872 and push the Francophones not accepting German authority to migrate to France and repopulate the area with German speakers from elsewhere.

 

[ArtosStark]

Well, probably Germany would follow the same philosophy of the annexation of A-L in 1872 and push the Francophones not accepting German authority to migrate to France and repopulate the area with German speakers from elsewhere.

I am not sure but I think the population involved here would be significantly greater.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Well, probably Germany would follow the same philosophy of the annexation of A-L in 1872 and push the Francophones not accepting German authority to migrate to France and repopulate the area with German speakers from elsewhere.

I don’t think theee was that much population transfer in 1872, as the Germans saw Alsatians as a Germanic people. Those that left were few in number and as individuals rather than whole swathes of the populace.

I am not sure but I think the population involved here would be significantly greater.

Pure numbers wise, almost certainly.

Would there be anyone left in Germany proper with all this resettlement? Brest-Litovsk involved large amounts of people moving East, with a Plan to repopulate “Mosanland” as well, the Reich is going to struggle to find settlers.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

I also feel that borders in Western Europe were considered more 'legitimate' then the ones in Eastern Europe. Not saying this is the end-all be -all, but I think most German leaders would feel far more comfortable carving up the Czar's realms then those of Germany or Italy.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I also feel that borders in Western Europe were considered more 'legitimate' then the ones in Eastern Europe. Not saying this is the end-all be -all, but I think most German leaders would feel far more comfortable carving up the Czar's realms then those of Germany or Italy.

Maybe because they had carved up Poland a generation or two before with barely a murmur and practically all the “new” nations of Eastern Europe were born from defeated multiethnic Empires?

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Maybe because they had carved up Poland a generation or two before with barely a murmur and practically all the “new” nations of Eastern Europe were born from defeated multiethnic Empires?

That would be one reason, yes.

 

[ArmageddonZ4747]

It may be easier to do with Italy or Spain on the CP side. Russia was carved up by both Germany and A-H. Germany alone won't have enough interest in taking more territory from France.

 

[Mario]

Would there be anyone left in Germany proper with all this resettlement? Brest-Litovsk involved large amounts of people moving East, with a Plan to repopulate “Mosanland” as well, the Reich is going to struggle to find settlers.

They can call German-Americans who did not fare well in their American dreams and could be potentially interested in getting free farms in their homeland (sort of).

 

[Deleted member 94680]

They can call German-Americans who did not fare well in their American dreams and could be potentially interested in getting free farms in their homeland (sort of).

That’s not a serious proposition

 

[CalBear]

Well, probably Germany would follow the same philosophy of the annexation of A-L in 1872 and push the Francophones not accepting German authority to migrate to France and repopulate the area with German speakers from elsewhere.

Which would, of course. lead to the exact same thing that the ToV led to. Another massive war in 20 years or so.

 

[Fire and shadow]

What would the equivalent to Ukrainian independence for France?

 

[Mario]

Which would, of course. lead to the exact same thing that the ToV led to. Another massive war in 20 years or so.

Probably, but France should think twice before attacking Germany, because if the border moves to the Meuse, France (specially the region of Ile-de-France) would become pretty defenceless.

What would the equivalent to Ukrainian independence for France?

Burgundy maybe? (in wide sense, like the old Kingdom of Arles)

 

[naraic]

What would the equivalent to Ukrainian independence for France?

France was a lot more culturally united than Russia. There wasn't a real equivalent. You can't exactly proclaim Britanny an independent nation. It had regional institutions that were only disbanded by the French revolution but Bretton nationalism wasn't really a thing.

It's also the opposite side of France to Germany so Germany wouldn't be proximate to prop it up. Although I'm sure the British would have trouble with the idea of a German fleet based in Britanny.

 

[cjc]

Let's assume a scenario where France suffers a revolt at some time during WWI because of bad perspectives at war (the US are finally not involved and the Germans keep on successfully advancing, or something like that), famine, political strife or whatever cause which leads to the French government to be deposed and replaced by another one which have no other realistic option than seeking a treaty of peace with the Central Powers.

Would the Central Powers intent or be able to impose to France a treaty with similar conditions of the IOTL Brest-Litovsk? Would the UK (specially if the US remains neutral) be able to stop such thing?

Similar conditions would mean that France might renounce to bordering territories which would be either annexed or converted in buffer states puppetized by the CP. This would surely include also Belgium and Luxembourg. Some Prussian leaders dreamed about setting the western border along the Meuse.

Probably not, even when germany conquers France its not going to have the strength to defeat britan on it island, and thats likely to lesson german demands emensly. Plus Germany simply didn't want as much from France as it did from Russia, it wasn't as scared of her as it was of Russia and dosnt need a string of puppet states to defend agenst France like it would need agenst a industrialized russia.

 

[Alex1guy]

What would the equivalent to Ukrainian independence for France?

That doesn't quite work. Russia was a multi ethnic Empire made up of lots of groups that could be carved out. France less so.

I don't think that was ever in the cards for Germany.

 

[Mario]

That doesn't quite work. Russia was a multi ethnic Empire made up of lots of groups that could be carved out. France less so.

I don't think that was ever in the cards for Germany.

I think moving the border to the Meuse was something that, even if quite hard to implemenent or close-to-ASB, would have been considered in case of an overwhelming victory, because it would guarantee that France would be quite defenceless in case of a new war. Certainly some optimistic Prussian officers had this idea on mind.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I think moving the border to the Meuse ... Certainly some optimistic Prussian officers had this idea on mind.

Really? Do you have a source for that?