Protect and Survive: A Timeline

100% mortality, I don't think so, certainly not for the UK. Plus the casualty figures for UK cities are not accurate, but best estimates, as the story acknowledges. It's hardly going to be possible for the Authorities to send people into what's left to count the bodies, now is it?

I think you are also forgetting that a great many, of not most of the initiations are air bursts which do not generate a lot of fall-out. Yes, large parts of Europe are going to suffer from fall-out, but a lot of the radiation is of a short half-life.

Nuclear winter is largely discredited, at worst you'd get a nuclear autumn, but not the sort of freezing twilight often seen in many post-laydown scenarios.

I've done a lot of reading in this field for my own work and because I'm a Cold War history buff. IMVHO Jack has come about as close as anyone has to a realistic scenario, baring in mind we'll never really know (hopefully) what a post-nuclear world would be like.


Hi,

what do you say about the power plants? look at fukushima... or tshernobyl...that alone will poison the world... so no surviving....not in the first 3 months, but the next 10-15 years...
not in 1983...

a 1983-full size nuclear war is game over... 14times Overkill... about the nuclear winter - we disagree...

greetings...
 
Not sure I'd characterise it as a game of chicken, perhaps more a sword of damoclese hanging over the heads of both sides if they missbehaved. Thankfully neither side did anything silly and democracy was able to defeat the second major challenge to it in the 20th Century.

MAD did work very well, thankfully, but only because leaders on both sides were rational human beings. If one side is not rational, or thinks that they'll get into Paradise if they're killed, then it won't work, which is why I'm a believer in having an ABM system, but that's a discussion for another day.

Or if the other side thinks they can win with minimal damage. Like those people in the 1950's and '60's that thought the US could "win" a nuclear, albeit at a cost of Europe and 10-20 million Americans.
 
Hard to say that minimal is 20 million,especially if those 20 were in the main cities and administrative centers of the country.Its easier to withstand an attack if most losses are in unimportant regions but losing Washington DC alone would be potentially catastrophic at least in the short-term.
 
Hard to say that minimal is 20 million,especially if those 20 were in the main cities and administrative centers of the country.Its easier to withstand an attack if most losses are in unimportant regions but losing Washington DC alone would be potentially catastrophic at least in the short-term.

I'm just using some off-hand numbers I've heard people threw around for a nuclear war in the late 'Fifties/ early 'Sixties
 
Hi,

what do you say about the power plants? look at fukushima... or tshernobyl...that alone will poison the world... so no surviving....not in the first 3 months, but the next 10-15 years...
not in 1983...

On Chernobyl look at the flaura and fauna that lives near the power station. It's largely unaffected and the worst of the effects of the release on humans have already happened.
The radiation release from Fukushima was not small, but it was not the huge disaster on the scale some in the media have suggested.

Do a bit of reading about nuclear winter and you'll see that more recent studies do not back it up. Sagan's model of the Earth was a smooth sphere with no water, mountains, or weather, plus he publicly admitted he, to be generous, fudged the figures to support the idea of a Nuclear Winter.

If you think the survival rates seen in this story are implausible then don't read it.
 
what do you say about the power plants? look at fukushima... or tshernobyl...that alone will poison the world... so no surviving....not in the first 3 months, but the next 10-15 years...
not in 1983...

a 1983-full size nuclear war is game over... 14times Overkill...

It's worth pointing out that the Chernobyl exclusion zone is not exactly a wasteland devoid of life, and the death toll of Fukushima was remarkably low even for people who were working there. There will be effects from fallout, certainly, and they will be unpleasant ones. But even every single nuclear power plant in the world catastrophically failing and having a 50km exclusion zone placed around it will not poison the world.
Nuclear wars are bad enough without needing to say things like this.

Edit: Ninja'd! I defer to my learned colleague JN1 :)
 
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On Chernobyl look at the flaura and fauna that lives near the power station. It's largely unaffected and the worst of the effects of the release on humans have already happened.
The radiation release from Fukushima was not small, but it was not the huge disaster on the scale some in the media have suggested.

Do a bit of reading about nuclear winter and you'll see that more recent studies do not back it up. Sagan's model of the Earth was a smooth sphere with no water, mountains, or weather, plus he publicly admitted he, to be generous, fudged the figures to support the idea of a Nuclear Winter.

Eh...the stuff I've read suggests the question is far from settled. There are so many variables that it's difficult at best to predict how things would go in such a scenario. One variable that I've seen mentioned is where the nuked cities are.

For reference, here's the original TTAPS paper, from 1983:
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19900067303_1990067303.pdf

It's worth pointing out that the TTAPS paper was not in fact the first work on the subject; there was research by the Russians also done concurrently, and at least one paper I can find reference to from 1982.

There was a study done about 5 years ago - discussed here - http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061211090729.htm -that concluded a "limited" nuclear war in the tropics - an exchange of 100 15-KT weapons dropped largely on cities (thinking of India & Pakistan) - would have horrific consequences for the global climate. The magnitude of the disaster was compared to the previously mentioned "Year Without A Summer" of 1816, when cold temperatures caused massive crop failures across the Northern Hemisphere. That was linked to the eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia, which ejected about 35 cubic miles of dust, ash, and gas into the atmosphere.

There is also apparently some disagreement over whether large-scale firestorms would ensue from a nuclear war. The number and magnitude of firestorms would have an effect (of course) on how much stuff was put into the upper atmosphere.

Also consider ground-burst strikes, which would eject millions of tons of dust and smoke into the stratosphere. Think about all those silos (how many in the mid-80s?) in the US Midwest, which would probably get 2 warheads each - the amount of dust ejected from those alone would be enormous.

There was also a 2007 study conducted by climate scientists at Rutgers, which used modern climate models reexamine the original TTAPS conclusions as well as some other studies. They concluded that not only would the effects be as bad as TTAPS suggested, but would last longer than they thought. That paper is linked below - it's kind of a dense read but worth the trip:

http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~gera/nwinter/nw6accepted.pdf

In one case, they looked at a "moderate" nuclear conflict, with 150 Teragrams (Tg) of aerosols and soot in the upper atmosphere. This was in the midpoint of the range of dust/soot loads considered by the TTAPS study. A couple scary quotes:

" A global average surface cooling of –7°C to –8°C persists for years, and after a decade the cooling is still –4°C (Fig. 2). Considering that the global average cooling at the depth of the last ice age 18,000 yr ago was about –5°C, this would be a climate change unprecedented in speed and amplitude in the history of the human race."


and...


"As examples of the actual temperature changes in important grain-growing regions, we have plotted the time series of daily minimum air temperature for grid points in Iowa, United States, at 42°N, 95°W, and in Ukraine at 50°N, 30°E (Fig. 5). For both locations (shown in Fig. 4), minimum temperatures rapidly plummet below freezing and stay there for more than a year. In Ukraine, they stay below freezing for more than two years. Clearly, this would have agricultural implications."


They show lows of around -15C (5F) in July. See the graphs/charts at the end of the paper for more info.​

What's worse, their results also point towards a major reduction in precipitation globally. So you get years of cold drought. Nice.​

It makes the climactic upheaval depicted in Robert McCammon's Swan Song looks like it was a bit optimistic, without the mystical girl to bail our sorry arses out.​

I don't take a position on whether it's accurate or not, as it's impossible to know for sure, and hopefully we'll never know. But ejecting those immense quantities of dust, soot and aerosols into the upper atmosphere can't possibly be a positive thing. Even if the Rutgers study was off by half, it'd still be catastrophic.​

Jason
 
When it comes to how much would temperatures decrease I guess the best way is to compare to the probable effect of an asteroid/comet impact of maybe 3-4 km in diameter.Experts say that such an impact would release more energy than the entire nuclear arsenal of the planet.While there would be differences between a nuclear war and an asteroid impact like the fact that explosions would be spread all over the basic things would be the same.Ejecta from the asteroid impact would spread over a wide area torching everything.Experts seem the say that humanity can survive such an event although we would be back to the stone age.
 

Macragge1

Banned
Hi,

what do you say about the power plants? look at fukushima... or tshernobyl...that alone will poison the world... so no surviving....not in the first 3 months, but the next 10-15 years...
not in 1983...

a 1983-full size nuclear war is game over... 14times Overkill... about the nuclear winter - we disagree...

greetings...

Hi,


I'm not sure I quite follow your point about the nuclear powerplants. Whilst obviously both the Fukushima and Chernobyl incidents were extremely serious and (especially in the latter's case) caused environmental and human damage, it is apparent that they didn't poison the world. Indeed, apart from iffy areas relatively near to the disaster epicentres, the long term effects are rather minimal - there is a possible upsurge in cancer cases downwind, but whilst tragic, this is far from apocalyptic.

Note as well that radiation leaks from nuclear power plants are generally more potent than fallout from '80s era nuclear weapons. Whilst I am not denying the horrible effects that such fallout has, it is a relatively short term phenomenon. Within a month, most of the people who are going to die of radiation sickness will have done so (there will of course, be deaths further down the line thanks to indirect complications). Whilst the Protect and Survive advice is subject to a lot of mockery, it is very likely that even hiding under one's stairs covered in suitcases is going to protect people from fallout in the short term; it's just dust, after all.

With regards to the environmental effects of a major nuclear conflagration, it's important to understand that everything is (thankfully) speculation. Whilst obviously there are calculations that can be done in order to work stuff out, there's still a lot of unknown integers that mean there's no hard and fast rule. Based on what I've read and on what other members have said, I believe that the closest precedent would be the Year without Summer (1816)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_Summer

The result of a major volcanic eruption in the Pacific, the phenomenon basically entailed irregular weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, with temperatures dropping to near freezing even in the height of Summer. Apparently the sunsets were spectacular.

Whilst this isn't the endgame that Hollywood nuclear winter entails, it is still a huge, huge problem given the effects on growing crops and the fact that the populace in general is physically very weak.

With regards to the survival rate, it's worth remembering that the UK alone has lost c. 10-15 million people. This is far from insignificant.
 
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On Chernobyl look at the flaura and fauna that lives near the power station. It's largely unaffected and the worst of the effects of the release on humans have already happened.
The radiation release from Fukushima was not small, but it was not the huge disaster on the scale some in the media have suggested.

Do a bit of reading about nuclear winter and you'll see that more recent studies do not back it up. Sagan's model of the Earth was a smooth sphere with no water, mountains, or weather, plus he publicly admitted he, to be generous, fudged the figures to support the idea of a Nuclear Winter.

If you think the survival rates seen in this story are implausible then don't read it.

Hi - do you really belive what you write?
because i am - well, can´t explain it, deeply troubled that you belive this.
Chernobyl is not a healthy place, genetic mutations are no good idea - people can´t live there without getting ill, really ill - and they die.

and we do not talk about one chernobyl, but we talk about thermonuclear hits and with them you have huge fallout, maybe 10-20 times the fallout of chernobyl - for each powerplant.... now add the numbers of all powerplants...

your last comment is insulting - i do critzise the plot and ask questions about such things like the nuclear radiation from destroyed powerplants... and your answer is "don´t read it" - do you the same? do you never critizie plots?

funny - i like the idea of the story - it is just to harmless - make it 100 times more evil and it looks good - at last this is my opinion...
 
Hi,


I'm not sure I quite follow your point about the nuclear powerplants. Whilst obviously both the Fukushima and Chernobyl incidents were extremely serious and (especially in the latter's case) caused environmental and human damage, it is apparent that they didn't poison the world. Indeed, apart from iffy areas relatively near to the disaster epicentres, the long term effects are rather minimal - there is a possible upsurge in cancer cases downwind, but whilst tragic, this is far from apocalyptic.

Note as well that radiation leaks from nuclear power plants are generally more potent than fallout from '80s era nuclear weapons. Whilst I am not denying the horrible effects that such fallout has, it is a relatively short term phenomenon. Within a month, most of the people who are going to die of radiation sickness will have done so (there will of course, be deaths further down the line thanks to indirect complications). Whilst the Protect and Survive advice is subject to a lot of mockery, it is very likely that even hiding under one's stairs covered in suitcases is going to protect people from fallout in the short term; it's just dust, after all.

With regards to the environmental effects of a major nuclear conflagration, it's important to understand that everything is (thankfully) speculation. Whilst obviously there are calculations that can be done in order to work stuff out, there's still a lot of unknown integers that mean there's no hard and fast rule. Based on what I've read and on what other members have said, I believe that the closest precedent would be the Year without Summer (1816)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_Summer

The result of a major volcanic eruption in the Pacific, the phenomenon basically entailed irregular weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, with temperatures dropping to near freezing even in the height of Summer. Apparently the sunsets were spectacular.

Whilst this isn't the endgame that Hollywood nuclear winter entails, it is still a huge, huge problem given the effects on growing crops and the fact that the populace in general is physically very weak.

With regards to the survival rate, it's worth remembering that the UK alone has lost c. 10-15 million people. This is far from insignificant.


Hi, sure - gladly nobody knows about the real nuclear war - but some things are proven
1.) both sides targeted the nuclear facilities of their enemies
2.) radiation was used as a weapon, so many many ground hits
3.) the consequences of nuclear and conventional hits on nuclear powerplants are massive contamination of large areas around these plants and - if it is done "right" massive contamination of very large areas of the planet - just look how big the radiation was in the chernobyl-case... now think about 200-400 such events, just nobody stop it from burning... now you get the real scenario... in such events the direct consequence will be for sure heavy radiation and a lot (30-40% of the surviving people) will die in around 3-6 months, another 30-40% in the next 2 years

the rest will die more slowly... but the death is sure...
this is just the damage of the powerplants, we have also the damage by the 25000 nuclear warheads both sides had. And again - not all are "clean" air hits... both sides wanted to destroy their enemies capabilities... so at last 50% (even more - in some areas the weapons are used to destroy ground facilities) of the bombs are surface hits...

no - the scenario sounds to "light" - that is my critic. Kill 80% more, let them starve, die by cancer and it is fine - but no country like UK will survive this war - maybe a few (1000-10000) people, but not as a country.
 
When it comes to how much would temperatures decrease I guess the best way is to compare to the probable effect of an asteroid/comet impact of maybe 3-4 km in diameter.Experts say that such an impact would release more energy than the entire nuclear arsenal of the planet.While there would be differences between a nuclear war and an asteroid impact like the fact that explosions would be spread all over the basic things would be the same.Ejecta from the asteroid impact would spread over a wide area torching everything.Experts seem the say that humanity can survive such an event although we would be back to the stone age.


yes - but in this case you have no radiation, not a shot gun but a single impact.... so you can say the human race could survive, but not as a civilisation - give em 10.000 years to recover - but with genetic changes... but not as countries like the thread starter does.
 
Informationfan, I see I'm not going to convince you, so I'll give up. ;)

Btw The Zone of Alienation around Chernobyl is now a tourist attraction. Yes, there are still hot spots, but most of it is safe for visits. It is also now something of a nature reserve.
 
the consequences of nuclear and conventional hits on nuclear powerplants are massive contamination of large areas around these plants and - if it is done "right" massive contamination of very large areas of the planet - just look how big the radiation was in the chernobyl-case... now think about 200-400 such events,

If wiki is to be believed the Chernobyl exclusion zone is a 30km radius around the plant - my high school mathematics gives me a total area of 2826 square kilometers. 400 of those brings us to 1130400 square kilometers - that sounds like a lot, but it's only 0.75% of the planet's land area of 148940000 square km. Hardly a very large area of the planet.

but no country like UK will survive this war - maybe a few (1000-10000) people, but not as a country.

Sorry, but I have trouble believing this. We're talking something in the region of 80 nukes hitting the UK, none larger than a few Mt and some hitting the same place (I think London received 10) or not hitting heavily populated areas. The UK had nearly 57 million inhabitants in 1983. Leaving only 10000 survivors total would require something more like nuclear carpet-bombing of the entire country.
Can I ask where you're getting your information about the effects of these strikes?
 
Yes there are differences between an asteroid impact and a nuclear war but somehow i doubt an event like an asteroid impact if that asteroid is somewhere in the 3-5 km diameter, anything bigger would probably be an extinction level event would be less destructive for the human race than a nuclear war.
 
I've read recently that the current concern about the Zone of Alienation is that the Ukranian government wants to reclaim bits of it that are now considered safe. Wildlife groups oppose this because of the beneficial effects the exclusion zone has had since the accident.
 
Hi - do you really belive what you write?
because i am - well, can´t explain it, deeply troubled that you belive this.
Chernobyl is not a healthy place, genetic mutations are no good idea - people can´t live there without getting ill, really ill - and they die.

and we do not talk about one chernobyl, but we talk about thermonuclear hits and with them you have huge fallout, maybe 10-20 times the fallout of chernobyl - for each powerplant.... now add the numbers of all powerplants...

your last comment is insulting - i do critzise the plot and ask questions about such things like the nuclear radiation from destroyed powerplants... and your answer is "don´t read it" - do you the same? do you never critizie plots?

funny - i like the idea of the story - it is just to harmless - make it 100 times more evil and it looks good - at last this is my opinion...

And myself I am deeply troubled by the fact that you don't seem to understand the basics of nuclear science.

The wildlife is thriving around Chernobyl that's a proven fact. Mutations have happened the extent of which is still unknown, but these mutations have not been crippling. There are not sixe legged boars living around Chernobyl, neither there are giants lombrics as per Godzilla or human eating mutants.

I have explained many times over in this thread why the radiation from a thermonuclear weapon is less potent and less numerous than the one from a nuclear power plant. The fallout from Chernobyl was full of heavy isotopes like americium, curium and most importantly plutonium. These isotopes are fission products, the result of Uranium 238 absorbing neutrons and not splitting (the neutrons are too slow). All these heavy isotopes would split during an uncontrolled nuclear reaction ie when the bomb explodes. The resulting fission products would be radioactive but not as much as the heavy isotopes. Most of the energ in a thermonuclear explosion comes from hydrogen atoms ungoing fuysion with other hydrogen atoms, the same thing happens at the centre of the sun and releases a tremendous amount of energy. The "atom" core is only there as a trigger and its size kept going down as weapon design improved, crucially the size of this core does not need to be increased by much if the weapon designers are after a bigger yield. The biggest H bomb ever made the Tsar Bomba (58MT) had a small fission core for its yield, to the extent than relative to its siez it was one of the cleanest nuclear weapon ever made.

I think that it is VERY CLEAR from the list of targets that none of Britain nuclear power stations have been targeted. Even Sellafield has not been hit, let alone Dunreay and Harwell. What likely happened is that once the alert was sounded, all the reactors in mainland Britain where immediately Scrammed and shutdown. When the power went down the diesel generators took the slack and kept the gas circulation pumps running in order to cool the reactors down. Due to the design of Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors a Chernobyl type accident is IMPOSSIBLE, as a steam explosion is impossible. A partial meltdown like in Fukushima has reduced changes of happening as well. There is no water running around in the core of an AGR reactor, what you have instead is carbon dioxide gas. The control rods and the reactor core will therefore never be "out in the air" as in Fukushima. I also think that even if the pumps are down, some of the CO2 will still circulate in the system by itself and because of thermal convection. I you want to I can have a look at diagrams in a textbook to confirm or infirm this.

If the power stations are hit directly then problems might happen, but don't forget that nuclear reactors are sturdy pieces of engineering. The Fukushima earthquake was a 9.0 on the Richter scale and it did not destroy the reactor. No craks appeard in the reactor vessel or in the pressure vessel. What happened instead was that the cooling systems went down and it is this which led to problems later on and nothing else. Radioactivity did go out, but this is because excess pressure was vented outn of the reactor vessel, thence flushing radioactive air and particles out. I order to completely destroy a reactor, you would likely need a direct hit on the reactor vessel itself , something unlikey to happen in the light of the poor accuracy of Soviet missiles. If this does happen then, a lot of radioactivity will be released but this will greatly depend on how damaged the reactor will be as a consequence of both the explosion and subsequent meltdown.

I personnaly doubt that nuclear power stations or even individual power stations where targetted during the exchange on a massive scale. For several reasons:
-The Soviets wanted to leave enough infrastructure intact so that it could be reused later on. Don't forget that according to Soviet doctrine, the Army would follow on after the nukes to control the terrain. Destroying too many targets which could be used to "rebuild the motherland" does not make sense according to this doctrine. The aim is to cripple but not to destroy.
-You would need sixteen weapons to destroy each nuclear power station in Britain. Two dozens would be needed in France, one dozen at least in Germany and nearly fifty in the United States. Add in the coal, gas and oil fire power stations and we are talking about hundreds if not thousands of weapons for the entire western alliance. That's a waste of nukes, as a tenth of that number could do more long term damage by crippling the power distribution network. The destrustion of cities also achieves mores strategic damage.
-Other targets have a higher overall priority, including airfields and weapon producing industries. A nuke on Port Talbot or Redcar steelworks would utterly cripple the entire British industrial apparatus. A nuke on the ICI chemicals works in the North would cripple key industries and factories crucial to the war effort. A nuke on a refinery would have an even bigger effect. If a power station is nuked, ok that's a loss of power capacity, but rolling blackouts, rationing and other energy saving measures would mitigate this greatly.

If I was the Soviets I would primarily target cities and command and communication centres. Losing command and control creates anarchy, massive civilan casulties creates even more anarchy and reduces the overall manpower potential. A few months down the line the country would be sufficiently weakened that an invasion would be a doodle and a return of order through a SSR of Great Britain led by Comrade Scargill welcomed!
 
One thing i would like to know is what is left of central european countries.So far most intel has been about western countries.But countries like Poland,East Germany,Czechoslovakia,Bulgaria,Hungary and Romania have been hit.Most likely the highest number of nukes hit in East Germany and Poland followed by the czechs.Probably the fewest would have been in Romania no soviet troops no nukes not much of an armed force.Still its a bit frustrating not to know anything about these places,no way is everyone dead.Pochest of survivors would be in some places.There is a certain sad part here,for example in Poland we where only a few years after the Solidarity marches,most poles would have been more likely to side with NATO but instead they got NATOs nukes:(.
 
Taking out power stations is only worthwhile during a longish conventional war where power shortages would cripple industrial production. It's a bit pointless in a nuclear exchange though, after all who, or what is going to be using power anyway? Moreover the National Grid is going to be utterly wrecked by the destruction of so many towns and cities.

The older MAGNOX reactors might be more vulnerable to an Chernobyl style accident, though Windscale and Chaplecross would suggest that they are much safer.
 
I shudder to think how many crop failures will occur worldwide during the next few years.

Even worse between radiation, semi-starvation, malnutrition, shock, and extreme stress, I wonder how bad the next few flu seasons will be, although they will be tempered by the lack of international travel, still the population of the UK and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is ripe to be hit by at least some diseases.


For instance how much priority has been put on sanitation in the UK? And what about the places where there is no organized government to speak of?

I shudder even more at what quarantine measure the government would take if there was a major outbreak of disease in the UK. In that case I think it is safe to say that we do not go into the forest.
 
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