Prince Henry of Prussia: The Rise of U-Boat.

[Tom_B]

Conflation

You've obviously conflated the historical unsuccessful attack on Monarch by U.15 off Fair Island with the very famous successful attack on Aboukir/Cressy/Hogue in the Broad Fourteens. Hmm having some problems with that. Let's start with where's Birmingham? Why is she not mentioned in the action report? The expendable old Bacchante class cruisers were by themselves that fateful day (bad weather forced Harwich Force to turn back) The GF is going to have a screen of which Birmingham was an element.

 

[Methatron]

Sounds intersting so far. Subscribed.

Keep up the good work.

 

[BlondieBC]

You've obviously conflated the historical unsuccessful attack on Monarch by U.15 off Fair Island with the very famous successful attack on Aboukir/Cressy/Hogue in the Broad Fourteens. Hmm having some problems with that. Let's start with where's Birmingham? Why is she not mentioned in the action report? The expendable old Bacchante class cruisers were by themselves that fateful day (bad weather forced Harwich Force to turn back) The GF is going to have a screen of which Birmingham was an element.

Yes, I am looking at battles in WW1 as a basis for the story, and the Live Bait squadron did inspire the HMS Monarch battle, but that being said, I believe it is withing the range of possibilities, even without the following changes.

Important changes in this ATL.

1) Crews have twice the time in boats on average. Quality of seamanship matters.
2) All these boats are diesel boats, not kerosene. Kerosene power emits a white smoke. Therefore, the U-boat is not seen by the Monarch, and gets a better shot at better range.
3) The U-15 was having mechanical issues when it was sunk hours after the attack on the HMS Monarch. We will never know for certain, but mechanical issues probably made it harder to attack the Monarch. Simply put, the U-boat in my time line is on its way back to port when the Birmingham arrives.

BTW, I read Jellicoe book which gives fleet positions. These three ships were unescorted by destroyers. It is only after the attack that half a flotilla of destroyers was sent to look for the U-boats. So yes, the GF does have a screen of ships, but the three super-dreadnought do not. You are having issues with Jellicoe actions not my time line. The British preparation in WW1 for submarines make Admiral Kimmel's performance look outstanding.

As the next installment will show.

 

[BlondieBC]

Night of Chaos: August 8/9

7:00 PM: UX-33 encounters the Grand Fleet at 58.31N 1.9E, at a range of 10 miles. UX-33 radios a contact report, and after hearing another U-boat relay the message, he begins his approach from the rear of the fleet. The Grand fleet is traveling at 14 knots giving the UX-33 a 3 knot advantage on the surface and a 4 knot disadvantage submerged. Within three hours, 15 of the remaining 19 U-boats are heading to the contact at full speed.

10:00: UX-44 begins the penetration of Scapa Flow.

August 9, 2:00 AM: UX-44 fires at the HMS Russell. Before he leaves the port at 5:00 am, he will have also sunk two colliers which burn brightly in the harbor. It will be 11 am before he is safe of the harbor defenses.

3:00: On board the Iron Duke, Admiral Jellicoe is awakened with a message about the Scapa Flow attack.

03:15: Orders Grand Fleet to head to 60.8N, 3.3W.

03:45: Fleet begins the turn.

04:00: UX-33 fires two torpedoes at the HMS Hercules which loses power and begins to take on water.

04:10: UX-33 fires two badly-aimed torpedoes at the HMS Neptune. Luckily, one hits the ship damaging the rudder. The ship begins to sail in a wide circle.

04:30: UX-33 fires a long range shot at the HMS Iron Duke. Both miss.

04:35: Adm. Jellicoe issue an order to proceed to Belfast.

04:50: UX-47 fires two torpedoes at the HMS Iron Duke. One hits near the engine room starting a petroleum fire and slowing the ship to 11 knots.

5:00: UX-40 fires two torpedoes at the HMS Natal. Both hit and the Natal sinks within 10 minutes.

05:05: Jellicoe realized that the fleet is under a coordinated U-boat attack, and has no defense but speed. He orders all ships to increase to maximum speed and for the destroyers of the 2nd and 4th Flotillas to escort the wounded and slower ships to safety. In the next few weeks, this order will be widely criticized by many in the British Admiralty.

05:09: UX-47 fires two more torpedoes at the Iron Duke. Both hit and the Iron Duke begins to list port.

05:11: UX-40 fires two torpedoes at the HMS Shannon, both miss as the ship is accelerating to flank speed.

05:15: Last ship in Grand Fleet reaches flank speed. In the morning twilight, five additional U-boats are close enough to see the Grand Fleet race away. These commanders proceed to finish off the wounded ships, and the proceed to travel in the direction of the fleeing Grand Fleet. The Iron Duke takes 4 additional torpedoes before sinking. Admiral Jellicoe and most of his command staff perish.

06:00: While patrolling the waters between Scapa Flow and Scotland, the UX-42 see the approaching HMS Vanguard. One of the torpedoes hits near the forward most main turrent, resulting in a main magazine explosion, and a few second later a second magazine explodes. The Vanguard is split into 3 pieces and sinks within 4 minutes. Only three sailors survive the sinking.

06:50: Ten miles north of Scapa flow, UX-49 sinks the King Edward VII.

Over the remainder of the day, the U-boats with remaining torpedos will pursue the fleet, but none will catch up to the faster surface ships. Then one by one, they will proceed to attack ships in and around Scapa Flow. Fifteen additional non-combat ships are sunk without warning, including one neutral freighter from Norway who happens to be in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

The British Admiralty sides into a state of shock and near panic. A series of conflicting, changing orders are issued. Reports of airplanes over British cities, Zeppelin raids on Scapa Flow, the High Seas Fleet leaving port, and a German Naval base being established in Norway are received. It will be several weeks before the Admiralty understands what really happened.

01:00 PM: Schultze receives word that the Grand Fleet is at 58.3N and 1.9E. The message is 18 hours old, and he realize not placing fleet code books in the submarines was a serious mistake.

02:00: The High Seas Fleet begins preparation to sail.

05:00: Enough messages have been relayed to U-boat command that Schultze realizes the Grand Fleet has fled, and the battle is over. The High Seas Fleet stands down as the German Navy tries to figure out what happened.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Russell_(1901)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Hercules_(1910)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Neptune_(1909)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Iron_Duke_(1912)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Natal_(1905)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_(1909)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_King_Edward_VII

 

[SAVORYapple]

excellent TL.

great Uboat-wank

but a plausible wank

and you basically introduced the wolf pack three decades early!!!!

 

[NHBL]

I like this...

Bagging that many dreadnoughts sounds like quite a bit of luck--but much of war is luck.

I know some might comment on the number of ships that sunk, but I can't remember many, if any, World War One wrships surviving more than one torpedo hit. Number of hits may be debatable, and I do question more maazine explosions, but if it's hit 2 or more times, I'd say "sunk" is fair.

I'll be watching for sure!

 

[BlondieBC]

excellent TL.

great Uboat-wank

but a plausible wank

and you basically introduced the wolf pack three decades early!!!!

It varies from the wolf pack in that there is no leader, no coordination. In a wolf pack scenario, all 19 boats would have arrived and attacked at the same time. The full wolf pack may be introduced later in the war with a Zeppelin as the command ship. The support for this plan in this time line is the "Freighter and a Diamond" concept where U-boats learned to cooperated in the Kamerun squadron.

Actually, I introduced it 2 to 3 years early. This is cooperation between submarines, and that was used in WW1. This will also the futility of the German Surface Naval plan. After a bigger victory than the Surface fleet dreamed of, it is still too weak to be decisive. I may or may not do some massive attack on the SE English Coast, but even if I send the entire High Seas fleet to shoot a full 1/2 of there ammo at London, it is not decisive. Possible fall of PM, but not decisive. And after doing all this work, I can say with Sealion in WW2 was delusional.

I am working on Tsingtao now, and i have some questions.

1) Are the U-boats hitting about the right % of the time?

2) Is it taking too few or too many torpedoes to sink each BB?

3) Anyone have any favorites for new Grand Fleet commander? I can research one, but i will run with any plausible one that makes for a good story. Jellicoe dying save Churchill's career. Someone has to be the bad guy, and dead men can't defend themselves.

In OTL, the Grand fleet sailed for 3 days in a 120 nm by 90 nm box at 14 knots. The first wave of ships missed it somehow. And the German u-19 boats could generally match this speed. A full sortie by the High Seas fleet with u-boat in lead, followed by surface scout ships, and then the High Seas Fleet would have resulted in a decisive battle no later than August 10, 1914.

In my ATL the second line finds it, so by the time the Grand Fleet turns west, the majority of the U-boats are between the Fleet and waters North of Scotland. This is why so many boats got to the Grand Fleet, because the Grand Fleet avenue of retreat was cutoff. When the fleet turned to head to west of Scapa Flow, it turned into the bulk of the U-boats.

 

[BlondieBC]

Bagging that many dreadnoughts sounds like quite a bit of luck--but much of war is luck.

I know some might comment on the number of ships that sunk, but I can't remember many, if any, World War One wrships surviving more than one torpedo hit. Number of hits may be debatable, and I do question more maazine explosions, but if it's hit 2 or more times, I'd say "sunk" is fair.

I'll be watching for sure!

Yes, this match what i found. One mine or torpedo means a ship sunk or in dry dock for more than 3 months. The second one is always fatal. To avoid too much debate, I used a lot more than two on many of the ships. But to me this is realistic, any U-boat captain will make sure a super-dread sinks. So they keep shooting til it is dead, unless there is another BB to shoot at.

See the post above for why so many ships. The first wave totally missed the Fleet for some reason as in OTL. If the first wave finds the main fleet, the British actually do a lot better because the Monarch group lives, and when the Grand Fleet accelerates to any speed over 18 knots and heads for home, the U-boats can't catch them. It would be probably no more than 3 ships total lost.

 

[Detlef]

I am working on Tsingtao now, and i have some questions.

1) Are the U-boats hitting about the right % of the time?

2) Is it taking too few or too many torpedoes to sink each BB?

Well, the old torpedo boat S-90 managed to sink a Japanese Cruiser "Takatschio" in our TL..
What happened to von Spee´s Asia squadron by the way?
And if that single and old torpedo boat is supported by several U-boats then maybe they could have sunk a few more Japanese ships?

Not to mention that U-boat supply ships guarded by U-boats and the von Spee Aisia squadron might be a bit more effective in this TL...?

 

[BlondieBC]

Well, the old torpedo boat S-90 managed to sink a Japanese Cruiser "Takatschio" in our TL..
What happened to von Spee´s Asia squadron by the way?
And if that single and old torpedo boat is supported by several U-boats then maybe they could have sunk a few more Japanese ships?

Not to mention that U-boat supply ships guarded by U-boats and the von Spee Aisia squadron might be a bit more effective in this TL...?

I am working on those now, along with Africa. In the first 4 days of the war, not much happens in those places, but over time some of the colonies will do better, at least for a while. 23 U-boats is not a lot for 3 Oceans.

When the Japanese arrive, there will be 3 U-boats on patrol, 3 in port. Von Spee will follow the same pattern. The Japanese have overwhelming force, so he will still find the basic same tactical pattern. He is also a surface guy, who has underestimates for sub. The Japanese will lose some extra ships, but have not decided how to write story, or if Japan has better Navy than Britain. Over time, butterflies get bigger, and I have to write all battles from scratch.

Do you have any suggestions on Japan?

 

[David S Poepoe]

How are the Germans establishing a base in Norway unless either they invade or force the Norwegian government to give into them?

I don't get why British Naval Intelligence, or any other commander on the African station didn't eventually figure out that something was strange about increased German sub activity in out of the way places. Don't give me the malarky that you've convinced yourself of that the British were battleship centric and wouldn't pay attention to what their major rival was doing.

This is a Germanwank TL.

 

[MerryPrankster]

If the British still have nearly double Germany's submarines, that strikes me as something that could present a large problem.

 

[SAVORYapple]

How are the Germans establishing a base in Norway unless either they invade or force the Norwegian government to give into them?

I don't get why British Naval Intelligence, or any other commander on the African station didn't eventually figure out that something was strange about increased German sub activity in out of the way places. Don't give me the malarky that you've convinced yourself of that the British were battleship centric and wouldn't pay attention to what their major rival was doing.

This is a Germanwank TL.

like BlondieBC stated, the German u-boat program was a limited thing, with a gradual pre-war build up on a program of minor funding importance, but more importantly, training and doctrine workouts, as well as certain innovations such as Radio that allowed something similar to Wolfpacks.

 

[juanml82]

If the British still have nearly double Germany's submarines, that strikes me as something that could present a large problem.

But they don't represent as much as an opportunity to the UK than Germany. The British would still outnumber the German fleet and more (or less) subs don't change the British capacity to blockade Germany. For Germany, more subs with better crews mean a chance to win the Battle of the Atlantic (winning meaning sinking enough tonnage to get Britain out of the war) and the British subs can't do much against the German ones. Subs weren't good at fighting each other for a long time.


Oh, and the way I see it, Germany didn't get a base in Norway, those are just rumors spread in the aftermath of the defeat

 

[Jukra]

For Germany, more subs with better crews mean a chance to win the Battle of the Atlantic (winning meaning sinking enough tonnage to get Britain out of the war) and the British subs can't do much against the German ones.

There's a number of technical possibilities which go into accelerated development due to submarine threat. Depending on how long the war lasts they may get into production.

First, depth charges, historically first deployed in effective form in 1916. This is a simple weapon which WILL be deployed at earlier date and deployed in much larger numbers than OTL.

Second, hunter killer submarine a la British R-class (ordered Dec 1917, into service Oct 1918).

Third, magnetic mines deployed for ASW, historically first used in August 1918.

Fourth, more systematic sub hunting techniques.

All these may benefit from large number of British subs.

 

[Adler]

British warships of ww1 had some problems with torpedoes and mines. So HMS Audacious was sunk after hitting a single mine in 1914. HMS Marlborough was hit by one torpedo by SMS Wiesbaden, which reduced her speed and finally forced her to retreat from the battle of Jutland. A second hit would be likely her end. SMS Seydlitz on the other hand survived 21 heavy shells and a torpedo hit.
Thus 2-3 hits should finidsh off any British battleship.

Adler

 

[BlondieBC]

How are the Germans establishing a base in Norway unless either they invade or force the Norwegian government to give into them?

I don't get why British Naval Intelligence, or any other commander on the African station didn't eventually figure out that something was strange about increased German sub activity in out of the way places. Don't give me the malarky that you've convinced yourself of that the British were battleship centric and wouldn't pay attention to what their major rival was doing.

This is a Germanwank TL.

Fiction has to make sense, reality does not. Read Jellicoe biography. British Intel SUCKED at start of war. Britain had almost no preparation for the real battle plan. Kimmel did better than Churchill in preparing, just in WW2 the Japanese had an aggressive attack plan, in WW1, the Germans sat in port.

The following are real reports:

1) Zeppelin Raids. (Quickly Dismissed)
2) Planes over Scapa Flow. (Quickly Dismissed)
3) German Naval Base in Norway. This was believed because it is what the British thought the Germans would do at the start of the war. This is why the fleet is so close to Germany. The patrol box he was in was about 300 miles from the German Coast or 15 to 20 hours for the High Seas Fleet. He was in range of all but the U-1 and U-2 U-boats. In OTL, if the High Seas Fleet had sortied behind the submarine screen and then cruiser screen, a decisive battle would have happened on the 8th or the 9th. In fact, looking at Betty later in the war, Jellicoe would have sail the fleet straight toward combat. It would have been a hugely complicated battle, but it could have been a major loss of for either side.

Read up on the subject, this is the second time you have complained on ACTUAL HISTORIC EVENTS.

As of the time the battle starts, Jellicoe also believed there were 2 German Cruisers north of his position somewhere near Norway, 4 torpedo boats north of Scapa Flow. The event closest to ASB is Jellicoe order to maximum speed. It is quite plausible that in a confusion of a nite battle, with his ships firing secondary batteries at ghost targets, he would have stayed much longer. I chose not to do this because I wanted a longer TL, and sinking 15 to 30 BB would likely cause Britain to sue for peace, IMO. Or at least not send any troops to France.


http://books.google.com/books?id=tA...w#v=onepage&q=First Fleet Grand fleet&f=false

 

[BlondieBC]

If the British still have nearly double Germany's submarines, that strikes me as something that could present a large problem.

It will. I have not worked through the details of what the British will do, but at a minimum, the British have enough subs to prevent SeaLion the Prequel. In OTL, the subs were largely a unneeded force because the older cruisers and like did quite well on the blockade. It is even possible that the unrestricted submarine will be done first by the British. Churchill did Oran, so he will cut corners when desperate.

But they don't represent as much as an opportunity to the UK than Germany. The British would still outnumber the German fleet and more (or less) subs don't change the British capacity to blockade Germany. For Germany, more subs with better crews mean a chance to win the Battle of the Atlantic (winning meaning sinking enough tonnage to get Britain out of the war) and the British subs can't do much against the German ones. Subs weren't good at fighting each other for a long time.


Oh, and the way I see it, Germany didn't get a base in Norway, those are just rumors spread in the aftermath of the defeat

Yes, if it is just facts, it is listed as XX sank YY. If it list either admiralty does, it has their view point. The fake book at the beginning of the thread will be quoted for any absolute fact and official opinion if there is a need.

I am trying to do both positive and negative butterflies. If the Germans are "winning" at sea, I am not sure they ever switch to merchant raiding as number 1 plan. They will of course sink ships, but the temptation to chase british warships over the worlds oceans will be huge in the mind of the Kaiser and the German Admiralty.

At this point, there is no blockade on the North Sea, because as a part of the panic and general retreat to the Irish Sea, most of the smaller stuff is pulled too. The English Channel is of course shut down, nearly 100%.

If anyone has feedback on how the Kaiser or the Churchill responds to the battle, it would be useful. Right now I am leaning towards Churchill trying to pull forces from other theaters to make up the losses. And the Kaiser will either have the High Seas Fleet sail for a decisive victory or he will be too scared of losing his toys. The most current "decisive victory" idea that I have is to have the entire fleet sail to London and shoot 1/3 of all ammo at London with a submarine screen.

 

[BlondieBC]

There's a number of technical possibilities which go into accelerated development due to submarine threat. Depending on how long the war lasts they may get into production.

First, depth charges, historically first deployed in effective form in 1916. This is a simple weapon which WILL be deployed at earlier date and deployed in much larger numbers than OTL.

Second, hunter killer submarine a la British R-class (ordered Dec 1917, into service Oct 1918).

Third, magnetic mines deployed for ASW, historically first used in August 1918.

Fourth, more systematic sub hunting techniques.

All these may benefit from large number of British subs.

At some point, I have to redo the entire build plan for the British and Germans, so this has to be done in 1914. I am leaning towards once each nation realize what U-boats do, to greatly overbuild them. This is the concept behind the "Rise of the U-boat".

As to the war lasting, I have trouble seeing it ending before January 1917. I am only go to deal with the land war on the Army and sometimes Corp level unless it is some very strategic battle or I just enjoy the subject. For example, if left alone, the African Colonies will do an amphibious operation somewhere. Zanzibar screams come take me since it is 20 miles from a German Naval base and it was traded to the Brits a decade or two before. The Kaiser got attacked in the German press over this trade, so he might want it back. Here is my broad thinking on the land war.

1) Unless British don't send BEF, France looks the same on 1/1/1915.
2) Japan still enters war because it is too soon for the battle to be understood or even know about British Naval defeat by August 15.
3) Russia still crushes A-H.
4) Italy probably does not enter WW1. If it does, it will either be later than OTL, or it will require some additional help for Italy. (Tunisia, other colonies, British Army corp, etc.)
5) Italy changes help A-H or help wherever the extra help comes from.
6) In 1915, German still has to fix the Eastern Front. It may go better, faster, etc.
7) By 1916, the CP will be doing enough better than OTL that major land divergences from OTL will appear.

I am trying to take this week by week, so I have no idea when the war would actually end, besides to say, not quickly.

 

[BlondieBC]

Overseas Squadrons

West Africa:

August 1914: Defense plans and preparations for Douala are completed. Co-ordination meetings occur between the Fregattenkapitän Johannes Lohs and land commanders of Kamerun. They agree to the following items:

1) A state of martial law will be declared, and the two commanders will jointly rule the colony until the end of the war. The colony's governor will be included in the triumvirate, largely as a symbolic move.
2) Naval forces will not be used to defend Togoland.
3) Lohs will be responsible for the defense of Douala and the army for the remainder of the colony.
4) The size of land forces will be expanded to as large as possible. The IV Seebatallione will be expanded to regimental size and renamed the Kamerun Naval Legion. The army begins similar moves. All white men in the colony of military age will be subject to draft, excluding citizens of neutral countries. Nationals of hostile foreign powers will be detained for the duration of the war or until they can be exchanged for Germans in hostile power colonies.
5) A large amount of additional supplies will be needed for the extended campaign. Lohs will be in charge of procurement. Initial goals are for enough equipment and supplies for an additional 3 regiments of soldiers, supplies for supporting merchant ships converted to raiders, larger coastal guns, sea mines, etc.
6) All suitable German flagged ships in port will be converted to merchant raiders using stockpiled submarine guns. Neutral shipping will be approached about the purchase of their ships. Some fishing ships will be converted to coastal gunboats, and they will be outfitted with machine guns and radios, supplies permitting. Training of natives will begin as seamen to supplement merchant raiding crews.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_Lohs



East Africa:

August 1914: Plans similar to West Africa are made, but it is expected to be much more difficult to get supplies due to geography.

August 5, 1914: Troops from Uganda attack German forces near Lake Victoria.

August 8, 1914: HMS Astreaea and HMS Pegasus attack Dar Es Salaam. A patrolling U-boat sinks the HMS Pegasus near Zanzibar, and the HMS Astraeae retreats.

August 15, 1914: German Land Forces conduct first offensive action.



Asia/Pacific:

All items same as OTL, unless noted, including actions of German Surface forces.

August 15, 1914: Japan delivers Ultimatum.