Presidents who could have got a third term

[Meadow]

Pretty simple - no 22nd amendment, same presidents as OTL (whether that would be the case with no 22nd is perhaps debatable but let's run with it) - who are the most likely candidates to win a third term, or at least get nominated for one?

Extend this to pre-1900 if you like, but replace 'no 22nd amendment' with 'Washington does three terms'.

Thinking about Presidents who enjoyed high approval at the end of their 2nd terms, Reagan comes to mind but the public as I understand it were increasingly worried about his age and health by '88. Clinton too would probably not have survived an election campaign after the impeachment attempt.

If you like, come up with plausible ATL scenarios that may have got third terms - Lee Harvey Oswald misses, for example - RogueBeaver, would JFK had got one if he'd run, or does it all depend on too many butterflies to know? A Watergate-less Nixon presidency might have resulted in a third term (or fourth, if we believe Alan Moore). And like I said, as we've not got much to play with post-22nd amendment, feel free to look at pre-22nd and pre-1900 ones here.

 

[Brian Roastbeef]

Eisenhower and Reagan could have except for their health concerns. Ike had heart trouble. Reagan was getting old, and would soon have Alzheimers.

Clinton is probably the likeliest chance, impeachment aside. Remember the impeachment didn't reverberate with the American public. The GOP pushed it too hard and lost seats in the 1998 midterms. They should have just censured him and focused on fiscal conservatism...

If Al Gore, who wasn't really a very good candidate could come within a few hundred Florida votes of defeating GWB, Clinton would have won as an incumbent President. Strong economy. Country still at peace. Approval rating up over 50%. He'd be a three-termer.

Likely he'd continue working with a Republican Congress and probably would grow more moderate...

 

[Hermanubis]

Clinton too would probably not have survived an election campaign after the impeachment attempt.

The whole impeachment thing actually made Clinton MORE popular, not less. Major sympathy from the public for what was seen as rapid, irrelevant charges by the GOP. Clinton would have had a third term in the bag if he wanted it and was constitutionally able.

I'm not sure about any other post-war Presidents... Eisenhower, maybe? I don't know how his health was in 60. Reagen could have won one easily, but would not have run due to his health. Nixon, if no Watergate.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Clinton's approval ratings were over 60% when his term ended- the highest of any departing POTUS since Ike. He'd beat Bush easily, and I'd vote for Clinton over Bush any day of the week. Nixon could have gotten a third term in 1976, given the anemic Democratic field. If a fiscally conservative Democrat like Lloyd Bentsen is nominated, then Nixon might lose, since he screwed the economy for political purposes IOTL. JFK's health would not be robust enough for a third term, and more likely he'd hand over to Bobby, who could leave in 1980 to avoid an involuntary retirement due to voter fatigue. But more generally, the Kennedys have 5 presidentiables, namely JFK, RFK, their namesakes, and Ted. So you don't need to remove the 22nd for a wank.

For the 20th century...

TR: As long as he wants, depending on health.
Wilson: HELL NO. His last two years in office are a living justification for a much earlier 25th Amendment.
Coolidge: Perhaps, but he'd have to bow out in 1932 to avoid being getting his ass kicked by FDR.
FDR: Yes, but he planned to resign after WWII, knowing he was a dying man.
Truman: Without a Commie victory in China, thus butterflying Korea, Ike doesn't go into politics and Truman beats Taft in '52.
Ike: Health wouldn't permit it, and he was anxious to retire.
JFK: already mentioned.
LBJ: It is certain he'd die during his second term and most likely before the 1970 midterms.
Nixon: already mentioned.
Reagan: Already showing signs of senility in his second term, and too old.
Clinton: already mentioned.
Bush II: He'd spare himself the humiliation.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

RogueBeaver, would JFK had got one if he'd run, or does it all depend on too many butterflies to know?

I'm here too, jeewhizz. *kicks a can*

It is interlocked with butterflies. The 22nd amendment was the GOP's little revenge against Roosevelt since they feared the 20th century from then on was going to be nothing but a bunch of New Deal Democrats for the most part and they wanted to check their power. Little did they know that the remainder of the 20th century would be mostly GOP dominance with a short Democratic interregnum every now and again.
In summary, butterflies would eat away at many things here so this or that guy becoming President is less certain the further you move from the POD.

That being said, there are few candidates who could likely get a third term. Ike perhaps, but he was getting up there. Reagan was already going senile halfway through term two, so no. Clinton is pretty likely (and there were some calls to repeal the 22nd amendment to let him run another term; but there are always those calls). Nixon, sans Watergate, probably (also many popular calls for the repeal of the 22nd amendment and Nixon said he'd consider a third term if granted). Kennedy is a POD mess in this scenario; you have the altercation in the assassination, combined with the administration after 1963, on top of the already existing POD of no 22nd amendment. Popularity wise, he could probably pull it off, and his age in 1968 would mean he really wouldn't have too much else to do (too young to write his memoirs, too old to start a new profession), but the butterflies make it a bit awkward to gauge. And as Rogue stated, he could just run Bobby or Teddy later anyway.

 

[Brian Roastbeef]

LBJ: It is certain he'd die during his second term and most likely before the 1970 midterms.

That's an interesting question, maybe worthy of its own thread. LBJ was more conscientious of his health while in office, and really stopped giving a crap afterward.

Of course, along with his poor habits after 1969, stress was a factor in his poor health, and he'd obviously be more stressed if still in office.

Then again, for him to have a chance vs. Nixon in '68, a whole mess of other things would have had to go down differently during his term... Vietnam, his far left agenda.... altogether could make him less stressed.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Eisenhower, FDR, Reagan and Clinton could've easily gotten a third term .

 

[RogueBeaver]

Vietnam is preventable with an early 1964 POD, but not the Great Society, which from LBJ's own descriptions, was intended as not only New Deal 2.0, but a permanent one.

 

[King Nazar]

Eisenhower, FDR, Reagan and Clinton could've easily gotten a third term .

FDR did get a third term

 

[adam888]

I would think Lincoln if he had not been assassinated would have been a candidate to win a third term.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

I would think Lincoln if he had not been assassinated would have been a candidate to win a third term.

I've always doubted Lincoln would have run for a third term. The presidency had already aged him decades beyond his years, and into his second term he'd probably get all the peace time domestic stuff done that he wanted. So unless there was something really calling him to a third term (ensuring black equality which was being threatened by the South is the likeliest), I don't think he'd run for one.

Lincoln really wanted to go see the west coast which he'd never seen. I think he'd go west to California and the Pacific Northwest.

 

[David S Poepoe]

I would think Lincoln if he had not been assassinated would have been a candidate to win a third term.

I think its doubtful that his own party would back him, or he may split the Republican Party between those moderates that back him and the Radical Republicans. I believe that Andrew Johnson's administration is a good indication of how easily relations between the White House and the Congress can become strained.

 

[King Nazar]

Wahington would have gotten a third term if he ran

 

[The Kiat]

Reagan would have, but probably would have had to resign due to his health. I'd like to think I could, but would he bother? And of course, Slick Willy would still be in office if not for Amendment #22.

 

[mowque]

FDR did get a third term

And, just to show he could, a fourth.

 

[Alien and Sedition Bat]

I'm convinced by the argument above that Clinton could have won a third term. Nixon would have too, if not for Watergate. As to Presidents before World War Two? TR probably could have had a third term. And it's too bad he didn't, the U.S. would have been prepared for WW I a lot earlier, the war would have ended earlier, maybe the Bolsheviks could have been crushed, TR would have had the realism and the clout to make a better postwar settlement, and a whole world of grief could have been avoided. People don't realize it, but Woodrow Wilson was the worst and most disastrous president in U.S. history, bar none. Worse than Carter, worse than Bush II, worse than Herbert Hoover.

For 19th century presidents, James Monroe could have had three terms; he was extremely popular in a time of prosperity. And maybe Andrew Jackson. Probably Grant too, in spite of the scandals (which southern historians would exaggerate over the following decades to get even with him).

Oh, and Jefferson could have had a third term, although he wouldn't have wanted it. He was succeeded by his neighbor, friend and close philosophical associate James Madison.

 

[Brian Roastbeef]

Reagan would have, but probably would have had to resign due to his health. I'd like to think I could, but would he bother? And of course, Slick Willy would still be in office if not for Amendment #22.

I'm thinking ITTL Clinton would have just been defeated or more likely chosen not to run for a fifth term.

People don't realize it, but Woodrow Wilson was the worst and most disastrous president in U.S. history, bar none. Worse than Carter, worse than Bush II, worse than Herbert Hoover.

Not worse than Obama though, nyah.

Nah, kidding. Some realize it... Wilson is certainly not popular around here, from what I've read. I think everybody has their own specific reasons not to like him, there are so many. I actually did my bachelor's thesis on his administration... Ambassador Morgenthau, specifically, and the U.S. response or lack of it to the Armenian genocide... Really is shameful considering the position of the USA as a neutral power, that Wilson chose not to act on Morgenthau's recommendations. Of course, the USA's neutrality was Wilson's top political bargaining chip at the time - no way he'd endanger it for anything until after the election...

Anyway, can't see Wilson winning a third term even if he were healthy. By 1920, the country was trending Republican pretty heavily. Cox lost in a landslide, didn't win a state outside of the solid south - even lost Tennessee. For Wilson to get term #3 would need a pretty big PoD that would make Wilson not Wilson...

 

[RogueBeaver]

Wilson was never very popular. He won in 1912 because of the GOP split and squeaked by in 1916 because Hughes forgot to spend a few minutes with Hiram Johnson when they were within 2 floors of each other in the same hotel. Not to mention his 1918 midterm massacre which was entirely his fault. Yes he won the war, but he also twisted it for partisan ends, German-Americans (normally Democratic) were hardly enthused about his anti-German Kulturkampf during the war, not to mention mass suppression of civil liberties. Irish-Americans were angry at his outspoken Anglophilia, and blacks would be especially motivated to vote against the would-be Verwoerd.

 

[tb75]

Wilson was never very popular. He won in 1912 because of the GOP split and squeaked by in 1916 because Hughes forgot to spend a few minutes with Hiram Johnson when they were within 2 floors of each other in the same hotel. Not to mention his 1918 midterm massacre which was entirely his fault. Yes he won the war, but he also twisted it for partisan ends, German-Americans (normally Democratic) were hardly enthused about his anti-German Kulturkampf during the war, not to mention mass suppression of civil liberties. Irish-Americans were angry at his outspoken Anglophilia, and blacks would be especially motivated to vote against the would-be Verwoerd.

If only Teddy would have been patient and waited until 1916, American history would have been very different. Taft or Roosevelt in 1912 would have defeated Wilson in a landslide, as it turned out both of Wilson's wins were flukes.