PRC: Was the power transition from Jiang Zeming to Hu Jintao inevitable?

[AT0N]

As we all know Deng Xiaoping laid out the succession of power in China for 2 generations after him- first he was succeeded by Jiang Zemin in early 90s and then Jiang was suceeded by Hu in 2002.
While both such transitions are considered to be very smooth, Jiang didn't give up all his posts in 2002- he held the position of head of Central Military Comission until 2005 and some speculated that he planned to keep it at leat until 2007. But after 2005, the influence of Jiang's associates from Shanghai (the "Shanghai Clique" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_clique ) started to wane.

So, let's sat that something drastic happens to China during Jiang's reign-would he able to consolidate his power and kepp power from Hu, or at least lose his positions at slower pace?

Let's say that 1993 WTC bombing succeeds and US enters War on Terror 8 years earlier. While the Americans are busy, China could feel a bit bolder and escalate the Third Taiwan Strait crisis more- capture Penghu Islands. That would boost the DPP popularity in 1996 Taiwan elections a lot and in 1997 Taiwan is proclaimed as new independnet state. Clinton administartion recognize it fast and put sanctions on the PRC.

Would such events be enough to break the Deng-planned succession line? I certainly see different 1997 CCP Congress and perhaps Li Peng staying as Premier for longer.

 

[schai]

It would not make any significant changes since Deng was not conscious in the later days of his life. In additional, Jiang didn't lost much of his power during Hu's era, since Hu was a figurehead from beginning to the end.

If Jiang had cracked down his opponents like Xi has done, he would stay in power until he died. The power was for him to lose. I think he lost his power because he was not willing to make tough decision.

 

[AT0N]

It would not make any significant changes since Deng was not conscious in the later days of his life. In additional, Jiang didn't lost much of his power during Hu's era, since Hu was a figurehead from beginning to the end.

If Jiang had cracked down his opponents like Xi has done, he would stay in power until he died. The power was for him to lose. I think he lost his power because he was not willing to make tough decision.

Like, As I heard, the differnce between the Hu's associates and Jiang's "Shanghai clique" was that the former were more consistenly Dengist, while Hu made some reforms in order not to overheat the Chinese economy too much. And I don't know how more sanctions from US would influence the balance of power between these two factions. But with Jiang and his associates having more power, we may end with the Chinese economy enetering a Japan'like crisis in around 2009-2010.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Unless I'm mistaken, Jiang believed the "intra-party democracy" between the Princelings and Populists was good for China, as were the unofficial term limits. So, while he did cling to lingering influence, an open effort to become dictator for life would be out of character. Which is not to say he wanted to democratize, he just recognized that these informal checks and balances could be a stabilizing factor.

Mind you, now that Xi has demolished his system, he probably wishes he'd ruled as a full despot.

 

[LeX]

Jiang created the arbitrary system of "seven up, eight down" (七上八下, i.e. "67 and younger at the beginning of the term can stay, 68 or older must retire) to get rid of older cadres from the Deng era. Then he got hoisted on his own petard somewhat when the early 2000s came along and he was 68.

 

[AT0N]

Unless I'm mistaken, Jiang believed the "intra-party democracy" between the Princelings and Populists was good for China, as were the unofficial term limits. So, while he did cling to lingering influence, an open effort to become dictator for life would be out of character. Which is not to say he wanted to democratize, he just recognized that these informal checks and balances could be a stabilizing factor.

Mind you, now that Xi has demolished his system, he probably wishes he'd ruled as a full despot.

Jiang created the arbitrary system of "seven up, eight down" (七上八下, i.e. "67 and younger at the beginning of the term can stay, 68 or older must retire) to get rid of older cadres from the Deng era. Then he got hoisted on his own petard somewhat when the early 2000s came along and he was 68.

Actually, I used to think that the term limits and age restrictions were Deng's idea. My question is how such drastic foreign policy events as Third Taiwan strait crisis escalating and Taiwan itself bceming independent may influence Chinese leadership. First of all, I envision a different XV CCP Congress in 1997- perhaps more folks from PLA and Bo Xilai's attempt to enter the Central Comittee succeedeing.