Portuguese-Castilian Union Makes Up Spain; How Does Colonization Develop?

[EMT]

Interesting. I also imagine spain would remain allies with Austria (if less so than otl) because their actions in north africa would draw the ire of the turks. So that begs the question, what do other powers like france and england do?

England's grandfathered into an alliance off of the Portuguese-English alliance. France is likely busy preoccupied with the HRE and Italy as OTL and rooting for the Ottoman Empire or maybe even assisting them with port access in the south of France like during the reign of Suleiman. France isn't too interesting a question in comparison to Aragon, IMO, and that's where the most speculation is required as we don't have much to go off of what their diplomacy might look like in this scenario.

Likely still a rival to the French over Rousillion and Naples, likely still sore over the War of Castillian Succession, Aragon's key friend here would be Austria, although the marriage that unified the two with Phillip the Handsome is unlikely to go as it did OTL, what with no Catholic Monarchs. The key thing here is that Aragon would be forced to be anti-Ottoman, partially due to their attempts on Otranto, partially to keep the Austrians happy. I'd imagine that they'd be paranoid about PortuSpain and likely get involved in North African conquests as a separate venture to make good on their alliance with the Hapsburgs against the Ottoman Empire while also not allowing an encirclement by PortuSpain. Which I imagine is likely to encourage the PortuSpanish to try and 'seal the deal' and make good on a united Iberia through marriages to guarantee the peace between the two.

France's relationship with PortuSpain is likely to shift strongly from monarch to monarch if only because they don't have overlapping geopolitical interests really, but their allies hate the other and it's likely to lead the two into at least a few dumb wars that don't really accomplish much versus one another.

 

[AlternosMundos]

Would TTL's Spain be in a better position to make gains in India or other parts of Asia due to greater resources and manpower?

And if not Spain would anyone try to take a shot at conquering otl Mexico once they find it? I think England might have the best shot. Allied to spain, they could probably get decent supplies for an initial colony (if a sphere of influence is defined between them), then it's a matter of luck finding the aztecs

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

I mean I think Portuspain would be pretty pro Ottoman all things considered- it keeps the Aragonese occupied if nothing else, and there's very little chance it would affect their own adventures in Africa given how Moroccan dynasties were claiming caliphal status and were a pretty separate cultural world from the Turks.

 

[AlternosMundos]

I mean I think Portuspain would be pretty pro Ottoman all things considered- it keeps the Aragonese occupied if nothing else, and there's very little chance it would affect their own adventures in Africa given how Moroccan dynasties were claiming caliphal status and were a pretty separate cultural world from the Turks.

Morocco, sure. But once they're messing around with Tunisia or what would be Libya, I think stuff gets messy

 

[EMT]

Would TTL's Spain be in a better position to make gains in India or other parts of Asia due to greater resources and manpower?

And if not Spain would anyone try to take a shot at conquering otl Mexico once they find it? I think England might have the best shot. Allied to spain, they could probably get decent supplies for an initial colony (if a sphere of influence is defined between them), then it's a matter of luck finding the aztecs

And piss off their Spanish allies with the following factors at play?

A) Spain having legal jurisprudence/rights to Mexico
B) Are depending on them to provide much of the resources and bases to fuel a conquest
C) Are going to trample Spanish commercial interests in the region in the process

England isn't gonna be doing anything there anytime soon IMO. Not only do they not have the capacity for it without a well-established and developed North American colony, but it'd also cost them far too much geopolitically to contemplate it AND the Mesoamericans would by this point be well-exposed to shock factors that eased Spain's attempt such as horses and diseases.

England isn't going to find Mesoamerica, Spain is, and they're gonna find out about it after English merchants in Lisbon are getting sold Mesoamerican goods by Spanish merchants. Now, the Spanish giving away small chunks of their empire as dowries is a possibility, but ceding their rights to Mesoamerica seems unlikely in the extreme.

 

[AlternosMundos]

And piss off their Spanish allies with the following factors at play?

A) Spain having legal jurisprudence/rights to Mexico
B) Are depending on them to provide much of the resources and bases to fuel a conquest
C) Are going to trample Spanish commercial interests in the region in the process

England isn't gonna be doing anything there anytime soon IMO. Not only do they not have the capacity for it without a well-established and developed North American colony, but it'd also cost them far too much geopolitically to contemplate it AND the Mesoamericans would by this point be well-exposed to shock factors that eased Spain's attempt such as horses and diseases.

England isn't going to find Mesoamerica, Spain is, and they're gonna find out about it after English merchants in Lisbon are getting sold Mesoamerican goods by Spanish merchants. Now, the Spanish giving away small chunks of their empire as dowries is a possibility, but ceding their rights to Mesoamerica seems unlikely in the extreme.

True... that effectively locks england out of the new world (at least, north America.) Since anywhere they could grab would be very close to spain and run the same risks. Given that between trying to hispanify morocco, fighting france and the ottomans (without the dutch money,) the americas and any venture in africa or asia, something seems likely to give.

For araspain it was their efforts in germany and asia, whereas Portugal failed in north america and stagnated in Asia. But the reasons for those failings are really complicated.

 

[kasumigenx]

Well, they would not even be interested in gaining the Philippines which would butterfly the Sakoku of Japan.

 

[AlternosMundos]

Well, they would not even be interested in gaining the Philippines which would butterfly the Sakoku of Japan.

Could you elaborate please?

 

[kasumigenx]

Could you elaborate please?

They would have control over the Spices trade in the East and the Americas, since the control of the Spice trade was the initial aim of Castile and Portugal in the first place, the conquest of Luzon was one of the factors that led to the Sakoku of Japan.

 

[AlternosMundos]

They would have control over the Spices trade in the East and the Americas, since the control of the Spice trade was the initial aim of Castile and Portugal in the first place, the conquest of Luzon was one of the factors that led to the Sakoku of Japan.

Ah, I didn't actually know what the sakoku was till i looked it up. So... yeah that tracks. How do you think that would effect the rest of asia?

 

[AlternosMundos]

Would spain have the resources to be a bigger competitor in India after the decline of the mughals?

 

[Qastiel]

Would spain have the resources to be a bigger competitor in India after the decline of the mughals?

That's an interesting thought. ALT Spain would have a lot less interest in the Mediterranean without Aragon but they'd still retain some interests in the Med due to their coast in the region. The Ottoman battle with the Portuguese/Alt Spain over control of the spice trade would be really interesting to watch with Spain being contested in both the Med and the Indian Ocean.

Especially if the proxy/periphery conflicts grow even larger with a more direct avenue for Europeans to be involved in said conflict. Given that Alt Spain would be much more powerful without having to meddle in Italy with no immediate rivals for colonisation. Though I guess things would depend on how France goes with their plans to dominate Italy and if Aragon can get any allies to help them contest France since otherwise there'd be a much stronger French king.

 

[AlternosMundos]

That's an interesting thought. ALT Spain would have a lot less interest in the Mediterranean without Aragon but they'd still retain some interests in the Med due to their coast in the region. The Ottoman battle with the Portuguese/Alt Spain over control of the spice trade would be really interesting to watch with Spain being contested in both the Med and the Indian Ocean.

This seems poised to lead to conflict over Egypt a lot earlier than otl since britain couldnt really challenge the ottomans from the west until after napoleon. Were there any separatist movements that spain could exploit?

Especially if the proxy/periphery conflicts grow even larger with a more direct avenue for Europeans to be involved in said conflict. Given that Alt Spain would be much more powerful without having to meddle in Italy with no immediate rivals for colonisation. Though I guess things would depend on how France goes with their plans to dominate Italy and if Aragon can get any allies to help them contest France since otherwise there'd be a much stronger French king.

This tl does seem poised for a spain vs france conflict due to their power over europe coming at each other's expense. Do you think france will be able to get grabby in America or would Lisbon have it too locked down?

 

[Qastiel]

This seems poised to lead to conflict over Egypt a lot earlier than otl since britain couldnt really challenge the ottomans from the west until after napoleon. Were there any separatist movements that spain could exploit?

I'm not a particular expert but I'm pretty sure the Mamlukes were integrated pretty well into the Ottoman administration upon their defeat. Perhaps a little too well since they still held some considerable power but I don't believe that they'd be liable to revolt upon Spanish urgings.

This tl does seem poised for a spain vs france conflict due to their power over europe coming at each other's expense. Do you think france will be able to get grabby in America or would Lisbon have it too locked down?

I think it might be possible that the Americas get divided between France and Spain if France wins Naples off Aragon by pushing their Angevin claim in the Italian Wars (likely imo) and then leverages Naples to keep Milan (less likely). This'd leave them in a powerful position in Europe but would naturally push Austria into a pro-Spanish camp. Aragon would be interesting to view too.

I'm not really knowledgeable enough to make much of a guesstimate of how things would shake out, just find it to be an interesting set up.

 

[AlternosMundos]

think it might be possible that the Americas get divided between France and Spain if France wins Naples off Aragon by pushing their Angevin claim in the Italian Wars (likely imo) and then leverages Naples to keep Milan (less likely). This'd leave them in a powerful position in Europe but would naturally push Austria into a pro-Spanish camp. Aragon would be interesting to view too.

Milan makes sense, it's highly developed and close to the french frontier. But how important would Naples be, really? It's big but really rural isnt it?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Sicily was not what it had been during the Normans (let alone during antiquity) but neither was it yet reduced to the sorry result of half a millenium of Spanish neglect and then Savoyard/Piedomontese incompetence. It is a rich prize, and strategically significant, especially if the alliance with the Turks holds and reduces the predation of the Barbary Corsairs.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Could a Portugal-Castile Union incorporate Aragon and Navarre too if successfully enough? Such a union would be a powerhouse although this means it would be a bit more involved in Europe. People here claim that it isn’t possible but wouldn’t the Portugal-Castile rulers want to rule over all of Iberia?

 

[Terço]

I think that a three kingdoms Spain is the best option.
If Peter II of Aragon crushes Simon de Monfort army and negotiate the reintegration of Catharism into Roman Catholicism ( probably needs to kill the leaders first and then he can be more lenient whit the peasants) he can start to truly unite Toulouse and Provence with his Iberian possessions, moving people from Toulouse to the Ebro valley and creating the basis for is son James I Crown of Aragon to become the main player in the Mediterranean.
In this scenario France doesn't have direct access to the Mediterranean, so Aragon would probably had a easier time conquering Sardinia, Sicily and Naples.
From there, Tunisia and coastal Albania are doable, creating a barrier to the Ottoman expansion into western mediterranean.
Castile can take Navarre and prevent a french dinasty from taking the kingdom and eventually expand into southern Gascony, taking the basque speaking region and Bearn.
In this scenario, Castilian language would in time replace basque and gascon and just like Aragon would seize any instability in France to further centralize and promote the language shift from basque and gascon to castillian.
Castille would fallow Portugal into the Age of Discovery but due to a longer reconquista whit a delay of several decades, so Canary Islands go to Portugal but Orania and Algeria are seen with interest and we probably see the conquistadors first in North Africa and then in the Americas.
In the west, Portugal and Leon unite and are the first to end the reconquista in Iberia , consolidate, and expand first to the islands and then to coastal Morocco.
Portugal establish a colony in Newfoundland and goes on to settle north america down to Delaware and Castille establish the colony of New Navarre north of New Castille (Mexico) and in time, indigo, rice, tobacco and cotton and the settlement in the american Piemont, healthier for europeans would create a wealthy colony and then a Vice Kingdom.
In South America, Portugal settle in coastal Brazil but in time reach the Pampas and Otl Buenos Aires becomes the main population center in Portuguese South America and while the castillian silver is exported from Lima to Asia an agreement with Portugal allows Castille to export silver to Europe from Otl Buenos Aires in exchange for the portuguese right to settle in Chile.
Castilian silver would finance the Portuguese expansion in the Indian Ocean allowing for someone like Afonso de Albuquerque to lock the Ottomans out by taking Aden and gaining influence in Abyssinia and Aragonese expansion in the Mediterranean.
Eventually a two prong attack by Aragon in the Mediterranean and Portugal in the Indian Ocean would crippled the ottoman navy and the Ottoman Empire would be on the defensive.
A Spanish Commonwealth could emerge as a loose confederation due to common interests, but the kingdoms would remain separate and brides would be chosen in the northern Italian states from families like the Sforza, Farnese, Medici, Gonzaga, etc,
Aragon focus and dominates western and central mediterranean, Castille becomes the main player in the Americas and Portugal establish the sea route to Asia and hires Magellan so no Philippines, they are called Fernandines and belong to Portugal.
The Iberians have a decent chance of only loosing some islands in the Antilles to the English and French, but in India, Portugal settles in the west ( Konkan, Malabar and Ceylon) and the French take Madras and the English, Calcutta.
If Portugal arrives soon enough, part of Java can be converted creating a strong colony and a base for war with the sultanates like Malacca, Aceh, Brunei and a second base in Manila in the Fernandines would allow power projection into East Asia and Macau, Tamão, Amoy, Formosa, Okinawa and Nagasaki could become part of the Empire, especially if Portugal is strong enough to help the Ming resist the Qing.
Maybe after being defeated the remnants of the Ming convert to catholicism and flee to Formosa, Fernandines, Java and Malaya.
No jewish expulsions, quite the opposite, the Iberian kingdoms become a safe haven.
Both Portugal and Castille would take advantage from the potato famines in Ireland and Scotland and settle thousands of refugees in the Americas.

My two cents to the discussion......

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I think that a three kingdoms Spain is the best option.
If Peter II of Aragon crushes Simon de Monfort army and negotiate the reintegration of Catharism into Roman Catholicism ( probably needs to kill the leaders first and then he can be more lenient whit the peasants) he can start to truly unite Toulouse and Provence with his Iberian possessions, moving people from Toulouse to the Ebro valley and creating the basis for is son James I Crown of Aragon to become the main player in the Mediterranean.
In this scenario France doesn't have direct access to the Mediterranean, so Aragon would probably had a easier time conquering Sardinia, Sicily and Naples.
From there, Tunisia and coastal Albania are doable, creating a barrier to the Ottoman expansion into western mediterranean.
Castile can take Navarre and prevent a french dinasty from taking the kingdom and eventually expand into southern Gascony, taking the basque speaking region and Bearn.
In this scenario, Castilian language would in time replace basque and gascon and just like Aragon would seize any instability in France to further centralize and promote the language shift from basque and gascon to castillian.
Castille would fallow Portugal into the Age of Discovery but due to a longer reconquista whit a delay of several decades, so Canary Islands go to Portugal but Orania and Algeria are seen with interest and we probably see the conquistadors first in North Africa and then in the Americas.
In the west, Portugal and Leon unite and are the first to end the reconquista in Iberia , consolidate, and expand first to the islands and then to coastal Morocco.
Portugal establish a colony in Newfoundland and goes on to settle north america down to Delaware and Castille establish the colony of New Navarre north of New Castille (Mexico) and in time, indigo, rice, tobacco and cotton and the settlement in the american Piemont, healthier for europeans would create a wealthy colony and then a Vice Kingdom.
In South America, Portugal settle in coastal Brazil but in time reach the Pampas and Otl Buenos Aires becomes the main population center in Portuguese South America and while the castillian silver is exported from Lima to Asia an agreement with Portugal allows Castille to export silver to Europe from Otl Buenos Aires in exchange for the portuguese right to settle in Chile.
Castilian silver would finance the Portuguese expansion in the Indian Ocean allowing for someone like Afonso de Albuquerque to lock the Ottomans out by taking Aden and gaining influence in Abyssinia and Aragonese expansion in the Mediterranean.
Eventually a two prong attack by Aragon in the Mediterranean and Portugal in the Indian Ocean would crippled the ottoman navy and the Ottoman Empire would be on the defensive.
A Spanish Commonwealth could emerge as a loose confederation due to common interests, but the kingdoms would remain separate and brides would be chosen in the northern Italian states from families like the Sforza, Farnese, Medici, Gonzaga, etc,
Aragon focus and dominates western and central mediterranean, Castille becomes the main player in the Americas and Portugal establish the sea route to Asia and hires Magellan so no Philippines, they are called Fernandines and belong to Portugal.
The Iberians have a decent chance of only loosing some islands in the Antilles to the English and French, but in India, Portugal settles in the west ( Konkan, Malabar and Ceylon) and the French take Madras and the English, Calcutta.
If Portugal arrives soon enough, part of Java can be converted creating a strong colony and a base for war with the sultanates like Malacca, Aceh, Brunei and a second base in Manila in the Fernandines would allow power projection into East Asia and Macau, Tamão, Amoy, Formosa, Okinawa and Nagasaki could become part of the Empire, especially if Portugal is strong enough to help the Ming resist the Qing.
Maybe after being defeated the remnants of the Ming convert to catholicism and flee to Formosa, Fernandines, Java and Malaya.
No jewish expulsions, quite the opposite, the Iberian kingdoms become a safe haven.
Both Portugal and Castille would take advantage from the potato famines in Ireland and Scotland and settle thousands of refugees in the Americas.
View attachment 692094
My two cents to the discussion......

Yeah I sincerely doubt that France is just going to let Aragon keep Toulouse and Provence just like that. Expect the two kingdoms to constantly fight over them.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Okay yeah preventing France from accessing the Mediterranean does sound bonkers but I love the quick riffing of an entire timeline just off the cuff like that, awesome post, very vivid and thought-provoking.