Plausibility check: Colonial power controls Japan?

the tricky bit about Japan is that its so much out of the way that no one really was willing to consider conquest of it (specially since it was also one of the most militarized countries outside the western world), force them to open for trading posts yeah, but not vassalaging it ... Korea was much weaker at this point, and a much better toehold from which you could influence China (the big prize).

Don't think there is any way for Russia to advance their infrastructure enough for them realisticly take a bite without getting more than they can chew
 
the tricky bit about Japan is that its so much out of the way that no one really was willing to consider conquest of it (specially since it was also one of the most militarized countries outside the western world), force them to open for trading posts yeah, but not vassalaging it ... Korea was much weaker at this point, and a much better toehold from which you could influence China (the big prize).

Don't think there is any way for Russia to advance their infrastructure enough for them realisticly take a bite without getting more than they can chew

Any European power would first have to seize a significant portion of Japan or China before even thinking about Korea, if at all. Although China, Japan, and Korea all extensively traded with other countries within East and Southeast Asia for centuries, China and Japan both had significant domestic markets as well by the time that the Europeans arrived, while the same did not apply to Korea, as it had a smaller population (10-15 million), and the majority of the urban population had remained clustered around Hanseong (Seoul).

However, even if Europeans had somehow managed to seize Korea, the only region that Europeans could have gained significant access to would have been Manchuria, which only had around 2 million inhabitants (half of which were Han Chinese) in the late 18th century, not to mention that most of its resources could generally have been attained elsewhere. As a result, considering that even Manchuria was not viewed as particularly strategic until the Treaty of Aigun in 1858, when the Russians annexed Outer Manchuria, and Chinese migrants began to flood into Inner Manchuria soon after, Korea would have been viewed as less so. While taking the peninsula could theoretically have facilitated access to Shandong, Southern China as a whole would have remained far more attractive for centuries, making it unnecessary to sail further north just in order to contact Joseon.

IOTL, after a few sporadic shipwrecks for centuries (but no diplomatic contacts), the French only decided to intervene in 1866 (and voluntarily withdrew after minor defeats) specifically in retaliation for the execution of its missionaries, not because it wanted to "open" Korea up to trade. Additionally, while the United States made two minor attempts to contact the peninsula in 1866 and 1871, ostensibly for trade, both were militarily repulsed. These halfhearted contacts were in stark contrast to the Europeans' collective interests in China and Japan, which spanned over three centuries despite the fact that both sought to actively curtail European trade by limiting the number of ports in question.

Ultimately, while Korea's relative "remoteness" caused Europeans to generally ignore the peninsula, over two centuries of extended peace and stagnant economic/social policies meant that its military and economy were relatively fragile when the Japanese gradually intervened after 1876, eventually causing it to fall prey to Japanese annexation in 1910.

I've also detailed Korea and Japan's general situations elsewhere, specifically here and here.
 
I don't see 1815 working, but maybe something like:

The Dutch keep Formosa/Taiwan somehow (this is the easiest step).
The Dutch get their outpost in Japan as IOTL, but when they help the Tokugawa shogunate they manage to take over and add the Portuguese tradeposts and a bit more (say, the rebellion is more painful and needs more Dutch aid to quell).

With these two in place, the Dutch focus a bit more on influencing Japan, and some Japanese rebellion is butterflied into a major event that topples the Shogun. The resulting resumption of Japanese civil war results in a lot of opportunities for Dutch divide and conquer, and make Formosa consistently a bit more useful (as the only Dutch base between Japan and the East Indies, thus able to respond more quickly). The Dutch also conquer Okinawa at some point.

By the 1800's, the Dutch have outposts scattered through Japan with a major base in Hokkaido where they helped the Ainu in some rebellion (Hokkaido becoming a mostly Ainu-ruled island under the Dutch, with a more Japanese minority). In the 19th century (and lord knows the butterflies by now) the rapid expansion of Dutch power due to industrialisation, and the experience of ruling Japanese, allows them to eventually gain a puppet-like Emperor and Shogun for a couple of decades just as they eventually managed to 'conquer' Java and other such massively populated places.
 
The problem is that Japan is a very well organised country and it plays by pretty similar rules to European nations. Its somewhere Europeans can do business with without needing to conquer anything.
You've also the problem of the 19th century political situation between the Europeans. You couldn't just go out and unilaterally carve out an empire. Everything had to be done with at the least unofficial agreements with other powers that they will be allowed to expand their influence somewhere. A place as rich and important as Japan...its unlikely anyone will be willing to give there.

That being said...IOTL the French and British were really heavily competing for interest in Japan.
If you could have Britain and France end up at war with each other in the mid 19th century then you could get a situation where the winner ends up with a protectorate over Japan.
However this would be some way from actually controlling the place.

Russia is a bit of a no go IMO.
Yes, it was technically near by if you look on a map, but the Vladivostok area was practically a different planet to the real (European) Russia.
Considering Russia's general naval deficiencies the British and French with their other holdings and the US across the pacific are much more capable of power projection in the area if things got serious.

One potentially interesting way to go could be China. Get some smarter and more successful leadership there and you really could get their dreams of formalising/modernising the old Asian vassal system by rather more directly taking control in Japan and Korea.
Alas this would really be one of those scenarios where you need a very different and interesting TL in its own right to get what we want as a minor secondary result.
 
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