Plausibility Check: A Second Sino-Japanese War with a Taisho Democracy

[Fries]

I'm currently working on my first TL, working title "Plastic Love Under a Tokyo Sky", and the major point of divergence in this timeline is that the Huanggutun incident, instead of being an assassination on Zhang Zhuolin, is instead an early Mukden incident. The Kwantung Army tries to invade Manchuria, but they're reigned in by the civilian government and disavowed by Prime Minister Tanaka Giichi with the aid of the Emperor and the Minseitō under the threat of American sanctions. Independent militarism never develops in Japan and the radicalization of the military is halted by an abortive attempt at an earlier coup in June of 1929.

China falls into infighting, with Li Zongren taking over Chiang's post in 1931 (IOTL this power struggle was interrupted by the Mukden incident). The Fengtian Clique is still primarily backed by the Japanese, and Li's government aligns more to Nazi Germany. Japan, fearful of an axis-aligned China on their doorstep and seeing a reason to both secure the Fengtian Clique in China and secure new territory for the Empire, invades in 1942, soon before America enters WW2 after Germany bombs American civilian shipping.

My question is: how plausible is this? Is a Second Sino-Japanese War possible (or even plausible) without an independent Kuantung Army and supremacist cabinet? Another idea I have includes Japan continuing to back the Fengtian Clique in a low-intensity conflict that spirals out of control later down the line. It doesn't necessarily have to follow the timeline I laid out, I just want to know if such a thing---a 2SJW with a Taisho government---is in the realm of plausibility.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

With no Kwantung Army and no militarists in the Diet, there will be no war - no militarists means no desire to gain territory for the Empire. Also, an Axis aligned China will have no capability of threatening or invading your democratic Japan, so Japan has no reason whatsoever to invade.

 

[Fries]

With no Kwantung Army and no militarists in the Diet, there will be no war - no militarists means no desire to gain territory for the Empire. Also, an Axis aligned China will have no capability of threatening or invading your democratic Japan, so Japan has no reason whatsoever to invade.

I tried to avoid the term "militarist" for this very reason, honestly. Many people in the liberal sectors of government were still plenty militarist: Keisuke Okada was really the only major non-militarist in the government at the time. Politicians like Fumimaro Konoe and Kōki Hirota are still going to be around and clambaring plenty for war, if not militarization. I instead used the word "supremacist" to denote those would later be crucial during Japan's wartime efforts and promote Japanization policies and their supporters, like Mineo Ōsumi and reform bureaucrats like Nobusuke Kishi or Okinori Kaya. The only major non-militarists in government are the Naval Left, like Yamamoto Isoroku, and even then when the situation called for it they were plenty militarist.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

I'm curious what the post-war situation would look like in this scenario. Is Japan going to end up striking it out as some sort of third power block in the Cold War (if such a thing even occurs)?

 

[Fries]

I'm curious what the post-war situation would look like in this scenario. Is Japan going to end up striking it out as some sort of third power block in the Cold War (if such a thing even occurs)?

That's a distinct possibility, honestly. There's still going to be animosity between Japan and China (even before the 2SJW they were not on very friendly terms, to say the least) but I can imagine Japan trying to stake out a bloc amongst independent third-world warlords or independent nations that don't feel comfortable under the American or Soviet umbrellas. Even though they're communist, I could imagine Japan possibly backing the Viet Minh if not solely in an attempt to empower the VQNDĐ (or revive it) later down the line.

 

[walmart]

Axis China isn't happening. The German-Chinese relationship was based on trade. China isn't strong enough to get involved on the Axis side.

 

[Fries]

Axis China isn't happening. The German-Chinese relationship was based on trade. China isn't strong enough to get involved on the Axis side.

An Axis aligned China doesn't necessarily have to happen, though. Japan could just be really scared it's going to happen, like how the US's hatred of communism made the Viet Minh ally with the USSR or the French government indirectly set the seeds for Algerian independence. A pre-emptive invasion, if that makes sense. It also gives Japan an excuse to invade China and seize the territory it's been eyeing for a long time (as well as numerous concessions), like Hainan or Qingdao.