Planning thread for a Hohenstaufen TL

[Yanez de Gomera]

So, after the poll ended with a tie, I decide to use my sovereign authorial powers to decide to do the medieval timeline. Sorry for those who wanted to see Eugene Beauharnais and his descendants unify Italy, one day I will make a redux of an Ausonian Tale to go back to the Risorgimento atmospheres.

Now I am exploring the realities of a Hohenstaufen Tl and I would like to have some inputs on it.

First, which monarch has in your opinion the best potential? Manfred or Conradin?
I think that both could have beaten Charles d'Anjou (btw, reading about him I discovered a really loathsome character, great villain for the first part of my story, but I will make sure that he encounters a suitably unpleasant end.), but who had the best chances of keeping the throne?

Manfred is experienced, but his legitimacy will be questioned (probably by Conradin himself too) and it looked to me that he was quickly being abandoned by his vassals during the weeks before the battle of Benevento.

Conradin is young and has very few contacts in the Kingdom of Sicily, on the other hand, I see the ever chivalrous Louis IX ending up mediating a peace between him and the Pope (Louis was skeptical of Charles adventure, not wanting his brother to become an usurper), especially if Conradin renounces his rights to the title of King of the Germans/Romans (which his very plausible, as he had to give out most of his lands in Schwaben to finance his Sicilian expedition).
The Sicilian barons have also witnessed the rapacious tiranny of Charles and might greet him as a liberator.
On the other hand, he is thoroughly German and might be considered a foreigner much more than Manfred.

In both cases, leaving aside the military technicalities of the victory, what would be the lines of expansion, especially re: the various polities in the Balkans and Greece? The Hohenstaufen had rights over parts of the Despotate of Epirus and controlled Corfù. Needless to say control of both sides of the Otranto channel makes much strategic and economic sense - and will make Venice decidedly unhappy.

The other prize would be Sardinia, but that risks another confrontation with the Pope, as well as with the Aragonese allies.

In Africa, keeping or re-establishing control over Tunis is an important goal, while good trade relationships with the Mamluks are a priority, the title of Kings of Jerusalem will in all likelihood remain a purely formal one.

Northern Italy might be a great opportunity in the long term, but will also be a constant source of problems, as Sicily will often end up sucked into the quarrels between Guelphs and Ghibellines.

Honestly, I would like a Hohenstaufen Sicily that is mostly focused on North Africa and the Balkans, is this plausible? I would need the help of the residing Byzantine experts on the Balkan part...

Sorry if this felt a bit rantish, I am just throwing some rough ideas at the audience to get some feedback and start planning the TL.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Bump: Sicily was rather centralized at the time, mainly because of the combination of Norman heritage and Frederick's tendencies to behave like a Sultan/Roman Emperor at times. This could be imho an invaluable asset if it can last until the crisis of the second half of the XIV century. By that time a renewed attempt at taking control of Central/Northern Italy might be done, especially if there is an equivalent to the Avignonese captivity and later the Great Schism.

Obviously centralization might be too much, for example it is èossible that the Staufen's reliancy on bureaucrats to control trade dealt a severe blow to the developement of an independent merchant/banker class like in the Northern city. In these matters a fine balance must be found.

 

[RiseofBubblez]

I honestly dont know much about this topic but seeing how no one has replied I've done aome cursory reading so Im not an expert but...

I'm going to go and say Conradin over Manfred. Technically Manfred was illegitimate and in all honesty I don't think Manfred was ever all that popular as a result. After all whem Conrad arrived the decade previously, everyone seemed to juat defect from Manfred in favour of a more legitimate king. In comparison Conradin later (in 1268) recieved massive support in Italy. I honestly think that Conradin has a better chance if just because he, like unlike Manfred, ahould have proper support from the nobility.

As for lines of expansion they may be able to expand into Epirus while Andronikus is distracted in Asia Minor in the early 14th Century but I honestly dont know about the plausibility of significant control of the Balkans. North Africa is plausible, after all Muhammad al-Mustansir was a vassal of Manfred before his overthrow.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Thank you! I was thinking along the same lines about Manfred. It doesn't help that there were rumors about him murdering Conrad IV (likely unfounded, but still...).

The relationship with Tunis is interesting and profitable for Sicily, as they mainly export grains for gold. Frederick II exploited a crop failure in Tunis in 1240 to monopolize the grain exports of the realm for a season and selling 50000 "salme" of grain at the outrageous price of one "onza" for a "salma".

 

[Evil Crusader]

Sadly, Medieval history is far from my favorite - but I can give you some pointers (and my best wishes) for the Balkans.
The Normans also controlled what were, back then, healthy non-Byzantine Greek polities - the Principality of Achaea and the Duchy of Athens. Good relations with Epirus followed suit (Corfu, which you name, was actually given to Manfred in 1259 as a dowry for his marriage with an Epirote princess) and if the domains can survive the reign of the devious Michael VIII well, everything is good for them (what remains of Byzantine pressure will fade, especially if control over Mistra and the Peloponnese will be regained during the 1341-47 Byzantine Civil War - the Despotate of Morea only grew after it - and the ruinous 1311 encounter with the Catalan Company is avoided).
This would leave any Kingdom based in South Italy to be considered the natural protector of Epirus, Peloponnese and Attica - a role they occasionally entertained OTL due to internarriage with Epirote nobility and doesn't require too much of a struggle if Stefan Dusan and his Serbia mirror their swift historical rise and fall.
The hardest part is starting out, but the strong cultural mix of the Kingdom makes it easy to go in any direction afterwards.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

@Evil Crusader thank you! The POD I have in mind is in 1266 or 1268, so after the disaster of the battle at Pelagonia, but certainly Sicily will be interested in Epirus and Greece, especially if the King can realize the fact that North Italy is basically impossible to subdue at the time. Keeping some sort of at least commercial control over Tunisia and preventing the formation of strong barbary corsair states would be a priority for Sicily, while another expansion target could be Sardinia.

Someone has any other ideas/is interested in this scenario?
I am a bit daunted at actually starting this Timeline, because of the amount of research that would be required to do it justice... Maybe I would be better off rebooting my original timeline about Joachim Murat surviving the Congress of Vienna...

If, instead, I decide to actually do a medieval TL focusing on Hohenstaufen Sicily, do you think it would be better to use Manfred or Conradin (or some other Hohenstaufen dynast)? Both have their pros and cons, so I am very open to suggestions.



The problem with this is that, this being a middle ages TL, the butterflies would certainly lead to an unrecognizable world, while in a XIX century TL I can at least work with established nation-states and cultures...

 

[Evil Crusader]

Yeah, such a TL requires really extensive levels of research - especially as the early stage will have the world responding to thie new Kingdom, which will have to stay on the defensive and wait for an opening.
The Crusade of Tunis will go to Egypt as Louis wanted instead, and Michael VIII will be more keen on trying to bring Hellas under Byzantine control; we might even see some kind of Greek Vespers instead of Sicilian ones. However, Aragon (which has just renounced her French ambitions) could be a good mid-term ally whose needs for expansion on the Thyrrenian Islands and the Barbary Coast are similar, but not necessarily overlapping until later on.

Murat surviving is definitely a much less daunting project, even if not taking into account the whole hosts of butterflies up until the XIX Century; depends on how much time you can spend researching it, but I'd say it feels much more doable.

 

[Tonifranz]

Conradin. He is the legitimate heir of the Hohenstaufens. He could even become King of the Germans, or King of Sicily, but though not both.

Simply, a legitimate king is much more appealing than a bastard, especially during this time period. And he won't have any legitimacy issues should he win, unlike Manfred.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Bumping this thread again although I don't really know if I will actually be as bold as to try my hand at writing this TL.
I have decided that my initial protagonist is going to be Conradin rather than Manfred.
One idea I have is that, after defeating Charles, Conradin might be able to secure the mediation of Louis of France to make peace and with the papacy. The Hohenstaufen would renounce their rights to the HRE and promise not to seek public offices in northern Italian cities or in Rome, but in turn get recognised as legitimate rulers of the Kingdom of Sicily and probably receive some monetary compensation (maybe a ransom, if Charles is captured?).
I was thinking that participation in the crusade could convince Louis to marry Conradin with a French princess (his earlier marriage could easily be done away with as non consumed), or is it implausible? The crusade would go to Egypt in all likelihood: is it doomed? What about possibke Hohenstaufen claims on Jerusalem
Sicily will likely favour Pisa against Genoa in any war, but would otherwise be neutral in the disputed between the other Italian maritime republics.
I don't see an alliance with Aragon as feasible in the long term, because Sardinia will certainly be disputed hotly by the two powers.

Greek policy? Control of Epirus should not be difficult and this entails controlling the start of the via Egnatia, leading straight to Constantinople, with possibly interesting implications, although I would hope that the lure of the second Rome doesn't become too strong, leading to a waste of efforts in trying to conquer and hold it.
Other chunks of Greece are fair game though..

 

[ByzantineLover]

Conrad's survival and victory could affect not just the Mediterranean, but the reet of Europe. If the crusade heads to Egypt instead of Tunis, Louis IX may not catch dysentry and might live longer. Unless Martin IV still becomes pope, the decline of crusading and papal authority might be delayed. And finally, if Charles of Anjou dies or remains confined to Provence, and if the native dynasties die out like they did IOTL, Hungary and Poland would end up dominated by the Houses of Premysl, Hapsburg, Wittelsbach or Luxembourg. One Bohemian ruler IOTL came close to securing Bohemia, Hungary and Poland at the same time around the start of the 14th century.