Pickelhaubes in the CSA

[PJ Norris]

An If in an If: What if the Germans invaded an independant Confederacy in say, before 1914?
I'm just reading 1901 and thinking, if say things between my CSA and the Germans got bad over Cuba and Puerto Rico, would and could the Krauts invade? If so would they be successful? How would the world react?
This might go into my TL I'm working on, in which my CSA has just got the Spanish islands of the Caribbean. The CSA also got Maryland and southern Delaware in 1862 after a victory at Glendale in the 7 day battles (to get the gist read Minus Twelve Stars).
NOTE: the CSA army is mostly in Cuba, there are some units in Maryland and Louisiana but mostly it's abandoned. The CSN is largely dispersed and out of date compared to the German ships.

To help and to show military moves here's a map of the political heart of my CSA to draw on:

 

[carlton_bach]

Well, that is assuming the Germans, or anyone, can handle opposed troop landings at the time. My take on this is:

- The British must, at least, tacitly support the idea. which probably means the CSA is screwed either way because its cotton economy depends on British capital, and if Britain is happy to condone an invasion... enough said

- The German merchant fleet would have to be used almost in its entirety. A huge economic strain that will weaken Germany in Europe for years to come even if they win, so you must assume either that they have a strong ally to keep their back free, or that their politicians don't worry about france any more. Why ever.

- There must be allies providing coaling/fueling stations, because the nearest German stations are either Windhoek, Togo, or home ports, and the German fleet can no more operate indepedently than any other can. Who's helping Jerry? The Brits, for some inscrutable reason? The Yanks, bent on revenge? THe French? (You know, if I were the French government I'd want to encourage the Germans in this venture. really.)

- The total number of troops landed, assuming they can land largely unopposed (the technology for an opposed landing simply doesn't exist yet, so a grouping of coastal artillery would be enough), will still be fairly small. They'd be Prussia's finest undoubtedly, and go through local state militias like a hot knife through butter, but there won't be enough. Given the presence of a CS navy, they have to strain their resources mightily to convoy their supply ships ferrying between Germany and the CSA, and the political structure of the Confederacy makes a decapitation strike unlikely to succeed.

Bottom line: Germany is out of prestige, a good deal of money, and several ten thousand troops, the CSA gains a national legend, whoever was in command at the time gets a shot at the Presidency in a few years and the German chancellor loses his job.

Dumb move. Not impossible, just incredibly dumb. Which, depressingly, looks about right for the German government at the time.

 

[sikitu]

For an answer, we need more information on the alliance situation in your 1901 and on the state of the CSA military and navy as well. Generally speaking, I would agree with Carlton Bach's analysis.

WI the Germans could convince the USA to join the attack? In that case, provided other powers stay out, the CSA would likely be screwed, having far less manpower and industrial capacity.

 

[Earling]

Well the question is.. why exactly are they at war and what does either side want to gain from it.

If theres some plausable explanation and plausable desires.. then it could be done if and only if it was logistically possible the Germany to base a fleet in the Caribbean. If Coaling stations and similar could be supplied by some American Power then I imagine they would have a reasonable chance of success.

Blockade Cuba then force the surrender of the army there. Then offer the CSA terms. Even better lure the CSA fleet into a significant engagement where it can be destroyed and then offer terms.
If the CSA still isn't willing to listen then a punitive raid on Washington DC (E.G Land somewhere close, burn as much as you can, scare a few people then leave) might bring them to the table. It might also get other powers to accept German ownership of Cuba+other Caribbean islands in the CSA's possession. US oppinion for example would be paticually important.

But that doesn't solve one, as far as I can see, Unanswerable question.

What does Germany realistically expect to get out of it? Fighting a war over the possession of Cuba, an island which is completely undefendable, will be a drain on German resources and furthermore a target for further American expansion in the years to come seems the height of stupidity. Given the worries Germany should be having about Russia and France the CSA is going to be so far down the list as to priorities its not going to happen (In my oppinion anyway..).

 

[MrP]

Well, they'd gain a base for commerce raiding in any future European War, and have an excuse not to have the whole fleet pointlessly bottled up in the North Sea. Beyond that, though . . .

 

[David S Poepoe]

I don't see any venture like this working for the Germans, for the simple fact of such logistics over such distances. They aren't going to be able to call up a blockade out of nowhere so the Confederacy should be able to get its armed forces in shape to repel them.

 

[Spartan]

The total number of troops landed, assuming they can land largely unopposed (the technology for an opposed landing simply doesn't exist yet, so a grouping of coastal artillery would be enough), will still be fairly small. They'd be Prussia's finest undoubtedly, and go through local state militias like a hot knife through butter, but there won't be enough. Given the presence of a CS navy, they have to strain their resources mightily to convoy their supply ships ferrying between Germany and the CSA, and the political structure of the Confederacy makes a decapitation strike unlikely to succeed.

The Confederate Army would be like the BEF in the Great War in that small wars with Indians would have hardened the Confederate army to the realities of war. Another is the Confederates are a rural people fighting on home soil which mean they can live off the land and are damn good shots while the Krauts are not. Like the BEF at the Battle of the Mons when the Jerries' 12th Brandenburg Grenadiers were cut down by high accurate rifle fire from the Brits' 1st Battalion Queen's Own Royal West Kent Regiment.

 

[MrP]

Depends if you've got the rifle for it, though. Remember that the British had the advantage of one of the nicest rifles of the day. 10 round detachable box magazine for the Lee-Enfield. Do the CSA have these? Or has the Confederate Army actually gone for the more logical choice for a nation of men raised to go after game - a hunting rifle. This means they're probably using the same model as the Germans, a Mauser. Mauser has more stopping power, but the most I understand the stripper clip holds is 5 rounds.

 

[carlton_bach]

The Confederate Army would be like the BEF in the Great War in that small wars with Indians would have hardened the Confederate army to the realities of war. Another is the Confederates are a rural people fighting on home soil which mean they can live off the land and are damn good shots while the Krauts are not. Like the BEF at the Battle of the Mons when the Jerries' 12th Brandenburg Grenadiers were cut down by high accurate rifle fire from the Brits' 1st Battalion Queen's Own Royal West Kent Regiment.

The CS Army is likely to be pretty good, given it lives next door to a more powerful potential enemy and has the Caribbean and Central America to dominate, but as the first post stipulated, it is engaged elsewhere. It'll be bad when they come back, though.
The state militias will most likely consist of modreate-to-good shots (German troops were middling fair riflemen on average, though any expeditionary unit would likely include the better ones), but that alone doesn't help. Living off the land is a limited option especially in cotton country. Unlwess the race question is settled they will find it hard to a) depend on the cooperation of former - or still - slaves and b) reduce the presence of armed men in their homes without upsetting the status quo.
But even if this was not a problem, a militia raised for immediate home defense is unlikely to be a seroious opponent for a modern military bent on conquest. The tactical doctrine of the German forces calls for conquering cities and fighting battles, and the Confederates will not be able to prevent that. Any attempt at stopping the advancing troops will result in lots of dead people as field artillery comes into the equation.
What they will be able to do is make any occupation hell, but any German military that actually intends occupation needs its head examined anyway. Even a landing would be highly weird, not to mention pointless.

 

[MrP]

I wonder whether the German military would be able to bring themselves to utilise the potential disruption that could be caused by offering to free/improve the lives of the oppressed black minority. I've had a similar situation crop up in a (very ASB heavy) timeline I'm working through at the minute, which has led to the formation of a coastal free black state. Not saying such a thing'd happen here, but dependent on how the CSA's race-relations are, one could see a great deal of trouble - if the Germans were credible.

 

[PJ Norris]

Is that it?

In 1901 so far, the Germans are indeed facing the problems already highlighted. Let me just bring this to light on the situation:

-The Germans don't want to occupy, they just want to shake the CSA a bit until they give in. A logical choice of invasion would be Maryland in my opinion (which is in the CSA.)
-The Kaiser wants an empire bad but dosen't want to fight Britain's navy nor the armies of both France and Russia.
-The Kaiser wants (in 1901) Cuba and Puerto Rico in the belief that these would truly make Germany an empire or get him on the right start to being one.
-Britain and France have so far no military pact or alliance with the Confederacy.
-Since the Southern Revolution, things between north and south have been fairly peaceful although there would been resentment against the Germans. The fact that Germans are now on the US border dosen't help things along with questionable German aggression.
-In 1901 the Germans make rapid progress upon landing and in the first few months. Although landing in the islands of New York has slowed down progress they make good headway. If the Germans however landed on mainland CSA, against a weaker resistance, I imagine the imperial flag flying in the District of Dixie (former Columbia) within in the first few weeks.

If anyone believes that war would be inevitable, bypassed or would never in hell happen, please post.

 

[David S Poepoe]

I don't see such a war happening since European politics is practically dominated by the Dual Entente and the Triple Alliance. Disturbing the balance of power in Europe isn't something any of the Great Powers would do to their disadvantage. The three major wars of the turn of the century are pretty much extraeuropean events (Spanish-American, Boer and Russo-Japanese Wars).

While there may be no official Anglo-Franco Entente, relations between the two powers are getting much better. The recent Navy Laws passed by the German Reichstag has no endeared Germany to the British either.

 

[Spartan]

I just don't see the US allowing a European power to come into the western hemisphere agressively and imposing its will upon a nation in the western hemisphere. Germany to the CSA would be like France to Mexico when they installed Maximilian. Even if it is the CSA the US would allow a European power to come in and establish itself because it would serve its interest.