People's Republic of (North) Japan?

[Clipper747]

Hi,

I'm new here but I'm very interested in alternate realities and their historic timelines.

I've been thinking about this scenario:

Operation Olympic goes according to plan starting October '45 to capture Kyushu and all remaining southern islands. Japan surrenders after Olympic Operation Coronet is cancelled.

The Soviets invade and capture Hokkaido setting up a Communist North Japan.

So in essence we have a Southern Japan (democratic) comprised of Honshu and Kyushu versus Communist North Japan in Hokkaido.

I see this as a very real alternative history considering the Soviets were going to invade Hokkaido, and Communism was present in Japan (albeit small numbers).

I wonder how this would effect current history. Would there have been a Japanese War North vs. South?

How would this impact the Cold War?

 

[Color-Copycat]

I agree that this scenario is pretty plausible, but I don't know if I can contribute much to discussion.

However, I should think that a communist north and democratic south would not play out like the situation in the Korean peninsula. For one thing, occupation by the United States in Japan was significantly more substantial, so you might see more of an analogue to West and East Germany in that regard.

 

[black angel]

I think the USSR annexing Hokkaido and forming PRJ out of northern Honshu is more likely

 

[teg]

Also Hokkadio is considerably less densely populated than North Korea and less industrialized. Additionally it is isolated by sea.

In this situation, a Japanese War between the north and south would probably either end with a total southern victory as the US Navy could stop supplies reaching the North Japanese army invading Kyshu (presumbably) and Soviet supplies from reaching Hokkadio. Alternately, the Soviets might try and escort their convoys, which would most likely end with total war between the Soviet Union and the west.

 

[Osakadave]

Yes, it's been done in several variations. CalBear's post here should cover most of the concerns.

For the Soviets, Hokkaido's doable and Tohoku and the northern parts of Chubu are definately possible. For the Allies, Kyushu, Shikoku, and Chugoku are pretty much givens, and Kansai, Kanto and most of Chubu are likely.

So you end up with East and West Japans.

 

[Roslin's Wig]

If the original occupation plan had taken place:

Well, the Soviets would take Hokkaido as you said. It would probably end up like a Japanese version of North Korea, complete with a "Great Leader" who takes on Hirohito's old role as a living god. Maybe it wouldn't be as poor as North Korea, but who knows.

The Americans and British would have, respectively, Honshu and Kyushu. Everything happens like it did in OTL, and I can't see the British occupiers behaving any differently than the Yanks. We'd end up with contemporary modern Japan.

The Republic of China would take Shikoku. This is the most interesting one, since I wonder how the Chinese would administer it, and also what would happen after Mao Zedong's rebellion back in the homeland. Not the mention the ethnic tensions - the Chinese would be reveling in their power over the invaders who raped their country, plus the Japanese would resent the "inferior chinks" lording it over them.

 

[Osakadave]

If the original occupation plan had taken place:

Well, the Soviets would take Hokkaido as you said. It would probably end up like a Japanese version of North Korea, complete with a "Great Leader" who takes on Hirohito's old role as a living god. Maybe it wouldn't be as poor as North Korea, but who knows.

The Americans and British would have, respectively, Honshu and Kyushu. Everything happens like it did in OTL, and I can't see the British occupiers behaving any differently than the Yanks. We'd end up with contemporary modern Japan.

The Republic of China would take Shikoku. This is the most interesting one, since I wonder how the Chinese would administer it, and also what would happen after Mao Zedong's rebellion back in the homeland. Not the mention the ethnic tensions - the Chinese would be reveling in their power over the invaders who raped their country, plus the Japanese would resent the "inferior chinks" lording it over them.

I'm not so sure that plan would've survived the invasions, particularly in light of the Soviets Mancurian grab and after the US doing almost all of the "heavy lifting". (The only allied ground forces scheduled were the three divisions of the the Commonwealth Corps for Coronet - 3 in 45 doesn't make for a large contribution) It certainly didn't ITTL.

If it did, what a glorious mess! The industrial heartland in ruins, mass starvation looming, and the breadbasket goes to the Soviets.

 

[The Vulture]

What would the political situation in South Japan be? Would we still have student radicalism and such groups as the United Red Army, or would the political climate not support that?

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Japan is reunited in 1990.

 

[LeX]

I personally find the idea of an entirely Communist Japan more interesting, since the Japanese are a little extreme culturally anyhow (a little like the Brits) and it would be fascinating to see what craziness a Communist island nation could conjure. If you have North Japan it's just doomed to be overshadowed by the south, which has like 80% of the industry and people no matter how you divide it.

 

[Osakadave]

What would the political situation in South Japan be? Would we still have student radicalism and such groups as the United Red Army, or would the political climate not support that?

Small quibble: it'd be East, not South.

Looking at ROK for examples, they'd probably be quashed. Trade unionism was cut short by SCAP in the face of the Korean War. Trade unions would be co-opted or suppressed. Probably only Rengo ("National Federation of Private Sector Unions") would be legal, and it'd be even more of a yellow dog. The Zenroren (the JCP affiliated "National Confederation of Trade Unions") would be outright illegal. Zenrokyo (the independent "National Trade Unions Council") would be in a KCTU like position.

Hmmm... I've thought on and off about an AH regarding the occupation and focusing on trade unionism (I was a bit of a labor actrivist for the last several years I was there, so I have a particular interest), and this may be a good starting point.

Japan is reunited in 1990.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Vietnam reunited in the 70s and Korea's still divided.

I personally find the idea of an entirely Communist Japan more interesting, since the Japanese are a little extreme culturally anyhow (a little like the Brits) and it would be fascinating to see what craziness a Communist island nation could conjure. If you have North Japan it's just doomed to be overshadowed by the south, which has like 80% of the industry and people no matter how you divide it.

IMHO, having lived in Japan 19 years, it'd make DPRK look nice and GDR like Disneyland.

 

[Roslin's Wig]

Just curious, but are you Japanese?

IMHO, having lived in Japan 19 years, it'd make DPRK look nice and GDR like Disneyland.

How so? How would it be different from Hirohito's Japan?

 

[Clipper747]

Geographically speaking, would it be better to call "North" Japan....East Japan?

I wonder what the popular moniker would be in the "alternate" reality?


Would Sapporo have been renamed? Would the Kuril Islands be attached to the Communist nation?

 

[Osakadave]

Just curious, but are you Japanese?

Nope - recently repatriated American.

How so? How would it be different from Hirohito's Japan?

Japanese culture has much more of an authoritarian streak than Korean or Chinese culture, in my experience. I'd expect it to look more like it did under Tokugawa than under Showa, with shades of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and Democratic Kampuchea.

I was thinking earlier about the regional effects that a Soviet occupation might have, and just had an interesting idea. With Japan now being divided, more attention would be payed to China. If the KMT wins, and pushes out the CCP, where does Mao end up?

Clipper747, the Japanese divide the country east-west, not north-south. The dividing line is in the Chubu district, which was the early extent of the Yamato. The cultural differences are fading, but the foodways, dialects, and cultural mores are still alive.

The JCP drafted a constitution for the People's Republic of Japan in '46, so I'd expect that to stick. (There used to be a good link to an English version available online, but I can't seem to find it now.)

Sapporo'd probably stay Sapporo. I expect the Soviets would still absorb the Kuriles.

 

[Roslin's Wig]

Nope - recently repatriated American.

I love that word, repatriated. You're an immigrant, gaijin boy.

Japanese culture has much more of an authoritarian streak than Korean or Chinese culture, in my experience. I'd expect it to look more like it did under Tokugawa than under Showa, with shades of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and Democratic Kampuchea.

I don't know. South Korea was more racist than Japan in my experience, and I'm sure the North is light-years worse. The Japanese definitely have an authoritarian culture as you said, but they're also very traditionalist - you can't just waltz in and replace their Emperor with a commie proletarian. So you have to "Japanize" the whole communist ideology in order to create a People's Republic, which sounds pretty hard to do.

As for how the People's Republic of Hokkaido would look...I guess like North Korea, but not as bad. I don't know much about the Tokugawa Shogunate, but I thought it was more of a feudal medieval society than a modern dictatorship. Peasants working in rice paddies and samurai strutting around with swords, and such.

The JCP drafted a constitution for the People's Republic of Japan in '46, so I'd expect that to stick. (There used to be a good link to an English version available online, but I can't seem to find it now.)

Could you give a link? I'd just run it through google translate, to get a rough translation of it.

 

[Clipper747]

Clipper747, the Japanese divide the country east-west, not north-south. The dividing line is in the Chubu district, which was the early extent of the Yamato. The cultural differences are fading, but the foodways, dialects, and cultural mores are still alive.

The JCP drafted a constitution for the People's Republic of Japan in '46, so I'd expect that to stick. (There used to be a good link to an English version available online, but I can't seem to find it now.)

Sapporo'd probably stay Sapporo. I expect the Soviets would still absorb the Kuriles.

Okay I see now, thanks.

My scenario sees only Hokkaido being taken. However, what if the Soviets did move into Honshu while we were busy fighting in Kyushu.
As one other poster wrote, Japan barely had any military assets in Hokkaido, what would possibly stop them(apart from no amphib equipment) from entering the main island of Honshu?

Is it more realistic to see the Soviets capturing only Hokkaido?

 

[Osakadave]

I love that word, repatriated. You're an immigrant, gaijin boy.

Repatriated, as in no longer an expatriate.

I don't know. South Korea was more racist than Japan in my experience, and I'm sure the North is light-years worse.

I've been to both, and while there's enough racism to go around, I do think the Japanese are more racist. The Koreans are just more outspoken and agressive about it.

The Japanese definitely have an authoritarian culture as you said, but they're also very traditionalist - you can't just waltz in and replace their Emperor with a commie proletarian. So you have to "Japanize" the whole communist ideology in order to create a People's Republic, which sounds pretty hard to do.

Historically Japan's been pretty quick to flip the switch in such situations.

As for how the People's Republic of Hokkaido would look...I guess like North Korea, but not as bad. I don't know much about the Tokugawa Shogunate, but I thought it was more of a feudal medieval society than a modern dictatorship. Peasants working in rice paddies and samurai strutting around with swords, and such.

They operated in a more totalitarian fashion than most modern dictatorships can manage. Hideyoshi had already disarmed the populace. Under the Tokugawas every household from the lowest scum to the was part of a gonin-gumi ("five-person group", although they ranged from 5 to 10 households) in a system similar to China's Baojia system or sort of similar to England's frith-borh. These groups bore collective responsibility for taxes and crimes, and if the group couldn't the punishment was almost universally death. The Tokugawas also operated an extensive secret police network. And at one point all crops were collected in taxes and a portion was returned to the peasants depending on how well behaved they were. Also, the seclusion policy was enforced much more harshly, as I understand it.

The conformist goupism that marks modern Japanese culture is largely rooted in this period. (It was there in some form before, but not nearly as strong.)

Could you give a link? I'd just run it through google translate, to get a rough translation of it.

Here's the English wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft_Constitution_of_the_People's_Republic_of_Japan

the original: http://www.ndl.go.jp/constitution/shiryo/02/119/119tx.html

the google translation of the original: http://translate.googleusercontent.....co.uk&usg=ALkJrhhp-HWijD0n3V9YmipjGnLVrUmkVA

and the google translation of the Japanese wiki: http://translate.google.co.uk/trans...6%A1%88&num=100&hl=en&safe=off&sa=G&prmd=ivns

Clipper747, I think it's quite possible that the Soviets could have taken Tohoku.

 

[Roslin's Wig]

Repatriated, as in no longer an expatriate.

Just another word for "immigrant", dude. That's how the Japanese view you.

I've been to both, and while there's enough racism to go around, I do think the Japanese are more racist. The Koreans are just more outspoken and agressive about it.

Yeah, I've been to both as well. To me, it looked like the Japanese were more used to seeing foreigners than the Koreans were. And racism doesn't really bother me if I'm just visiting a country; it doesn't matter to me as long as they're polite to my face. I'm sure lots and lots of people are secretly racist bigots. Anyways, I enjoyed Japan much more than South Korea. Haven't been to Kim-land north of the DMZ, and I don't want to.
While in Japan, I spent most of my time in Roppongi anyways, which is basically a foreign neighborhood.

Historically Japan's been pretty quick to flip the switch in such situations.

No, not really. Both the Shoguns and MacArthur knew better than to get rid of the Emperor.

They operated in a more totalitarian fashion than most modern dictatorships can manage. Hideyoshi had already disarmed the populace. Under the Tokugawas every household from the lowest scum to the was part of a gonin-gumi ("five-person group", although they ranged from 5 to 10 households) in a system similar to China's Baojia system or sort of similar to England's frith-borh. These groups bore collective responsibility for taxes and crimes, and if the group couldn't the punishment was almost universally death. The Tokugawas also operated an extensive secret police network. And at one point all crops were collected in taxes and a portion was returned to the peasants depending on how well behaved they were. Also, the seclusion policy was enforced much more harshly, as I understand it.

That's pretty totalitarian, for a feudal society. But I can't see how Tokugawa's government would enforce those rules. I mean, the point of feudalism is that peasants answer to knights, who answer to nobles, who answer to the king. No individual or group has total power over a country.

Although, I have to ask: Why would Japan be so totalitarian? It's a historical fact that Showa Japan was never as fascistic as Nazi Germany or North Korea, not even during the height of their militarism.

The conformist goupism that marks modern Japanese culture is largely rooted in this period. (It was there in some form before, but not nearly as strong.)

Now I know why those Japanese kids sometimes dance in unison at clubs, like a weird mass aerobics move. Fuck you and your conformism, Tokugawa.

 

[Osakadave]

Just another word for "immigrant", dude. That's how the Japanese view you.

LOL - no, repatriated is most certainly not another word for immigrant.

Yeah, I've been to both as well. To me, it looked like the Japanese were more used to seeing foreigners than the Koreans were. And racism doesn't really bother me if I'm just visiting a country; it doesn't matter to me as long as they're polite to my face. I'm sure lots and lots of people are secretly racist bigots. Anyways, I enjoyed Japan much more than South Korea. Haven't been to Kim-land north of the DMZ, and I don't want to.

Never got stopped by the cops for WWW in Korea like I did manty times in Japan. Never ran across a "no gaijin" sign either.

While in Japan, I spent most of my time in Roppongi anyways, which is basically a foreign neighborhood.

That would explain a lot.

No, not really.

Yes really. The arrival of Chinese cultural influance, the arrival of Europeans, Tokugawa Shogunate, the Meji restoration, and the US occupation were all instances where Japan did abrupt about faces.

That's pretty totalitarian, for a feudal society. But I can't see how Tokugawa's government would enforce those rules. I mean, the point of feudalism is that peasants answer to knights, who answer to nobles, who answer to the king. No individual or group has total power over a country.

It was partly a response to a couple of centuries of chaos and partly clever design and enforcement by the Shogunate.

Now I know why those Japanese kids sometimes dance in unison at clubs, like a weird aerobics move. Fuck you and your conformism, Tokugawa.

Two words: "rajio taiso".

Even at cherry blossom time, just when the parties in the parks really get rolling, the police will roll up tell everyone it's time to go hame, and everyone will.

Another example is how nearly everyone is registered with the local police (that's in addition to the national family register system, BTW). I remember when I was living in Niigata and got a note on the door. I had a friend translate it (early days when my Japanese might get me a beer and some food if I was lucky). Turns out the officers from the local koban had stopped by with a bunch of paperwork for me to fill out asking all sorts of personal questions. My Japanese friends didn't blink an eye, and thought it was a bit odd that I objected.

One more note: another root of Japanese culture is the early exposure to China. I heard it explained a long time ago as the shock of encountering sophisticated China at a time when the Japanese were no where near as sophisticated deeply imprinted a Confucian mode of operation on the culture where there is a perfect model that one tries to emulate. It's seen throught the culture, especially in the education system. There's always one right answer.

 

[Roslin's Wig]

LOL - no, repatriated is most certainly not another word for immigrant.

Never got stopped by the cops for WWW in Korea like I did manty times in Japan. Never ran across a "no gaijin" sign either.

I just chose to not go to those fancy places that were only for Japs. It doubt they were having a lot of fun either.

Yes really. The arrival of Chinese cultural influance, the arrival of Europeans, Tokugawa Shogunate, the Meji restoration, and the US occupation were all instances where Japan did abrupt about faces.

You still didn't explain the bit with the Emperor. They've always kept an Emperor there, even though he was usually powerless (actually, the imperial dynasty of Japan has survived so long BECAUSE they have no real power). A communist People's Republic of Hokkaido...I don't know. The idea of keeping an Emperor goes against everything communism stands for.

Neither did you explain why ultra-conformist, ultra-fascist, collectivist Showa Japan never went to the totalitarian extremes of Nazi Germany or North Korea, when they had the chance to do so.