Pedro II dies early

[brunosouzzxx]

What if Emperor Pedro II of Brazil dies earlier in his reign? Maybe around the 1860s.

By this time Isabel would already be in her 20s, and, IIRC, was despised by the political elites for her seemingly uninterest in running the country and because everyone hated her husband, Gaston.

Could she overcome this and be the Brazilian Victoria?
Was she really unprepared or is it a post-monarchy interpretation?
How would her reign go?

@Gukpard @Taunay @ByzantineCaesar @Guilherme Loureiro @Vinization

 

[Vinization]

Depending on when Pedro dies, Isabel will probably have her hands full with the Paraguayan War. Gaston probably won't take an active part in the fighting ITTL, which will affect his reputation later on for better or worse.

I'm really curious as to how politics might evolve later on, depending on when exactly Pedro dies. Perhaps the Progressive League (made up of moderate conservatives and liberals) could last longer or consolidate itself as a political party, thus contributing to the political marginalization of hardline conservatives like the viscount of Itaboraí.

This could, in turn, lead to an earlier abolition of slavery, perhaps in the early 1880s rather than right at the end of the decade.

 

[Taunay]

Depending on when Pedro dies, Isabel will probably have her hands full with the Paraguayan War. Gaston probably won't take an active part in the fighting ITTL, which will affect his reputation later on for better or worse.

I'm really curious as to how politics might evolve later on, depending on when exactly Pedro dies. Perhaps the Progressive League (made up of moderate conservatives and liberals) could last longer or consolidate itself as a political party, thus contributing to the political marginalization of hardline conservatives like the viscount of Itaboraí.

This could, in turn, lead to an earlier abolition of slavery, perhaps in the early 1880s rather than right at the end of the decade.

Honestly, I think OTL is already way too late in its abolition of slavery and part of that is because Pedro II refused to press the issue.
The events in your comment coupled with Isabel's personal disdain for the institution would lead to it being abolished way earlier (late 1870s?)

 

[Vinization]

The events in your comment coupled with Isabel's personal disdain for the institution would lead to it being abolished way earlier (late 1870s?)

I think that's too soon, the slavers' lobby will still be very powerful, with plenty of legislators and prominent politicians adhering to their cause (folks like the Baron of Cotegipe and Paulino de Sousa). My money's on slavery being abolished when Ceará and Amazonas do it (in 1884).

 

[brunosouzzxx]

Depending on when Pedro dies, Isabel will probably have her hands full with the Paraguayan War. Gaston probably won't take an active part in the fighting ITTL, which will affect his reputation later on for better or worse.

Would there be any significant differences in the Paraguayan War? Idk how much Pedro II got real decision power in the conflict

Isabel's personal disdain

I wonder if her distancing from politics would result in more stable terms for prime ministers, as OTL most of them served for only about one year or less

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

Would there be any significant differences in the Paraguayan War? Idk how much Pedro II got real decision power in the conflict

The war would likely end in 1868, with the occupation of Asunción. I believe it was the Emperor who pressed for the unconditional surrender of Paraguay and the capture of Solano López, which prolonged the conflict until 1870 and saw some of the worst atrocities of that war. Now, I very much doubt that Solano López would agree to negotiate a peace treaty, so he gets to lead a counter-insurgency in Paraguay while the Triple Alliance installs a new Paraguayan government in Asunción that signs the peace treaty, making territorial concessions and so on. Brazilian forces will remain occupying the country for a few years to prevent Argentina from taking it, but they can’t stay there indefinitely, especially if there is an active resistance movement led by Solano in the countryside. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. The occupation might inflict heavier costs and casualties than the last stage of the actual war did in OTL, prompting either an earlier evacuation or even increased domestic pressure in Brazil when compared to OTL. Either way, the Brazilian occupation is likely to be more costly and to end sooner.

This, of course, presents the added problem that if Solano isn’t captured at any point, he might seize power and topple the “legitimate” Paraguayan government. He may renege the peace treaty and try to recover the lost territories, igniting a war between Paraguay and Argentina in which Brazil would likely be in no good position to intervene, what with the domestic crisis and general war weariness. I don’t know who would win such a conflict (or if there would even be a clear winner at all), but without Pedro II there to enforce the capture of Solano López, I think it’s safe to assume that the Platine region will be far more unstable ITTL.​

 

[unprincipled peter]

I think it’s safe to assume that the Platine region will be far more unstable ITTL.

This is likely, and I think it is predictable in advance, which is why it makes sense to press for unconditional surrender. Why would the alliance quit with such an obvious, likely, possibility? Were there alternative factions pushing for this, OTL, which the Emperor had to overcome?

You might see an attempt at such a scenario, but Lopez is going to quickly make a muck of it, and the Alliance will resume a full offensive. I don't think there'd be enough of a peace period to allow full withdrawal and then Lopez makes his move. Instead, the Alliance might install a puppet gov't, and then, while the Allies are divvying up the spoils, Lopez will strike. The occupiers will be harassed, and Brazil will have little choice but to resume the fight while their war machine is still there, or watch their efforts go for naught, and the region gets destabilized.

IF they're going for a partial victory, leaving Lopez still in the field, it would make more sense to simply strike a deal with Lopez. After having been crushed, Paraguay will not be in any position to be a threat for a long time.

OR, do the puppet install, declare victory, and get the hell out. Trying to prop up a puppet, with Lopez lurking around is the worst move of all. Get out quick, and let Paraguay sort itself out.

 

[chrnno]

One thing people tend to not really grasp about Brazillian slavery, especially since they tend to compare it to USA's which was fundamentally different, is that it wasn't sustainable without the slave trade and people both understood and accepted this.

So once the British started to use their navy to interrupt the slave trade, and became increasingly efficient at doing so over the decades, the countdown to the end of slavery began and what could get across the Atlantic only delayed that somewhat. Thus people for it were simply half milking all they could and half kicking the can down the road so someone else had to handle the aftermath, meanwhile those against it knew for sure it would end eventually and so most felt no particular need to spend time, effort, and influence to speed it up a bit.

Pedro II dying earlier might have lots of consequences if it disrupts the Paraguayan war and there is certainly ways the succession could go weird, but abolition is likely to be the same drawn-out affair.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Like people said here, this affects mainly the Paraguayan war and the slavery question. The former while I don't think goes exactly like OTL would still remain very brutal as Solano Lopez would refuse to surrender so Brazilian troops probably still have to go chasing him until they shoot him down in the swamps, however without Pedro there and being a experienced ruler and we instead get Isabela and Gaston(The first somewhat politically green and the second very gung ho) or even a particularly stubborn Brazilian diplomat who demands the "fair share" of Paraguay in the talks with Argentina we could see something like a tense border between the two countries as they both take Paraguay apart and divide amongst themselves, if things heat up again, we could see a Second Paraguayan War that would without a doubt be won by Brazil thanks to having a large experienced army and navy as well as Argentina's constant troubles between it's federalist and centralist factions, either way Brazil gains even more territory from Argentina and become the undisputed master of South America.

Now for slavery, the Paraguayan War was a big factor in helping end slavery as many plantation owners sent their slaves instead of sons(an idea that would be copied by those who could afford getting slaves) and because these soldier slaves earned their freedom as well as the help and sympathy of the military who had fought alongside them, they started forming abolitionist clubs and organizations to help free their people, with Isabella in power and with the support of the military and these veterans and other sympathizers she could end slavery earlier and one that has a few caveats to help out the freedmen as well as giving compensation to former slave owners, there would be a push back sure but with the support of the army as well as the power of the state, she could crush any opposition.

Honestly the monarchy might survive since the military would be alongside them as well as the freedmen alongside the new legitimacy of having conquered new territory

 

[holycookie]

get Isabela and Gaston(The first somewhat politically green and the second very gung ho)

Well he is a complicated figure. Twice during the course of the conflict, Gastão sent a request by letter to Pedro II to authorize him to fight in Paraguay, but on both occasions, to his great disappointment, He was denied. He agreed with the duke de caxias on the issue of paraguay (When he arrived in Paraguay, he reorganized the Brazilian army and dismissed officers accused of looting enemy territory). The Viscount of Taunay said that the count revealed "great strategic skill, the patience of an experienced captain, indisputable courage and cold blood". He also tried to get involved in government like this with his wife (but Dom Pedro wouldn't let him).The government will be a mix of congress and empress, with the empress being weaker in the beginning. He will be excluded completely from the government. Interestingly, most of his fame is invented by the Brazilian elite (like Rui Barbosa who didn't like a foreigner to have so much influence in the country).

or even a particularly stubborn Brazilian diplomat who demands the "fair share" of Paraguay in the talks with Argentina we could see something like a tense border between the two countries as they both take Paraguay apart and divide amongst themselves,

I think this is likely to happen if the country is shared because Argentina will want most of the country for historical reasons, but Brazil will have the biggest army. Brazil and Argentina hated each other during this period. Not only that, but depending on the partition taking place, Brazil will have more access to the Plata Basin, which was a nightmare for the Argentines. The most likely is basically a continuation of the war in Paraguay, but now between Brazil and Argentina.

if things heat up again, we could see a Second Paraguayan War that would without a doubt be won by Brazil thanks to having a large experienced army and navy as well as Argentina's constant troubles between it's federalist and centralist factions, either way Brazil gains even more territory from Argentina and become the undisputed master of South America.

More likely, Brazil will create a puppet state in the Entre Rios region (maybe a protectorate) and annex Paraguay as a whole. And wanting to push the country's debts to Argentina (either that or demanding reparations to pay the debt). So, probably after this war with Argentina, Brazil will have another 2 or 3 wars until everything settles down. In addition, Chile can attack Argentina, basically the South American cone will have many more wars (there is also Bolivia and maybe Peru in this matter)

with Isabella in power and with the support of the military and these veterans and other sympathizers she could end slavery earlier and one that has a few caveats to help out the freedmen as well as giving compensation to former slave owners, there would be a push back sure but with the support of the army as well as the power of the state, she could crush any opposition.

Depending on the situation, this group may encourage a war with Argentina as a way to inflate the number of former slaves in the army, creating a way for slaves to achieve their freedom more quickly. Regarding the monarchy, it probably survives but it will be different, I don't know if the country will be a democracy like England (maybe the emperor will keep more power). Anyway, I think it's likely that the throne will be passed to Pedro the Third (son of Isabel as soon as possible probably when he turns 18 in 1893). I also don't know if the dispute between Brazil and Argentina will be taken to WW1 (with one side going to the central power and the other to the entent, I think it's unlikely)

 

[unprincipled peter]

Well he is a complicated figure. Twice during the course of the conflict, Gastão sent a request by letter to Pedro II to authorize him to fight in Paraguay, but on both occasions, to his great disappointment, He was denied. He agreed with the duke de caxias on the issue of paraguay (When he arrived in Paraguay, he reorganized the Brazilian army and dismissed officers accused of looting enemy territory). The Viscount of Taunay said that the count revealed "great strategic skill, the patience of an experienced captain, indisputable courage and cold blood". He also tried to get involved in government like this with his wife (but Dom Pedro wouldn't let him).The government will be a mix of congress and empress, with the empress being weaker in the beginning. He will be excluded completely from the government

Are you saying Congress, being stronger in the beginning, will exclude Gaston?

Seems to me, without Father in Law Pedro to restrict him, he would look to get involved, possibly looking to overshadow his wife (I don't know his personality to say whether he wants to be the power in the couple, or to assist Isabella). Being green, she would likely either be amenable to him being involved, or limited in her ability to prevent it. If he's anything at all of a politician, he'll figure out how to get a role. If he's not, but eager to be one, he may monkey up the situation and create chaos.

 

[holycookie]

possibly looking to overshadow his wife (I don't know his personality to say whether he wants to be the power in the couple, or to assist Isabella).

well he didn't mind sharing space with the woman otl. He didn't want to be in her shadow, he wanted to be someone.

Being green, she would likely either be amenable to him being involved, or limited in her ability to prevent it. If he's anything at all of a politician, he'll figure out how to get a role. If he's not, but eager to be one, he may monkey up the situation and create chaos.

He proved to be a competent figure, more so than his wife. Overall in this case he will probably run the empire. And it probably won't be done badly. He traveled the entire country (more than any other member of the imperial family) to get a better feel for the country. He unlike his father-in-law will probably not allow republican newspapers. The Brazilian has a wrong idea of him due to the fact that he became the scapegoat for the republicans to attack (He was basically maria antonieta of brazil). If Dom Pedro stabilized the empire, Gaston would solidified it.

José Avelino, who would participate in the first republican constituent, years later after the end of the monarchy would say about Gaston:

"What was possible to do to win the title of Brazilian he did: regulations, bills for better organization of the Army and improvement of its war material; schools, libraries, orphanological colonies [orphanages] for helpless children; everything in short that he could speak to the gratitude of the unprotected masses of fate or to the different classes of society, he planned or carried out for the most part"

 

[brunosouzzxx]

If slavery is abolished before AND Gaston is the de facto Emperor of Brazil, wouldn't he be even more hated by the elites? I would think the republic would probably start before it did OTL, as they would have the same "casus belli" (abolition+dissatisfaction of urban elites+army feeling sidelined) along with a better target than Pedro II, as Pedro was popular and respected and Gaston was hated and viewed with suspicion.

As for the monarcy-army relations, I think a second war would only worsen it. The monarchy wasn't interested in changing it's favour from the National Guard to the Army, if it was it would have done it after the OTL war. IMO if more wars happen, the army would feel even more entitled to stage a coup and rule the country that they """"saved"""".

 

[holycookie]

If slavery is abolished before AND Gaston is the de facto Emperor of Brazil, wouldn't he be even more hated by the elites?

The slaveholding elite yes, the others depend on how he will act economically. In addition to that he can make economic reparation agreements for the loss of slaves

I would think the republic would probably start before it did OTL, as they would have the same "casus belli" (abolition+dissatisfaction of urban elites+army feeling sidelined) along with a better target than Pedro II, as Pedro was popular and respected and Gaston was hated and viewed with suspicion.

The republic was an anomaly that gained its "insurrection" by permission of Dom Pedro and nothing else. With Dom Pedro dying much earlier, Gaston has the possibility of governing the country, which can be good or bad. The army will not be sidelined, especially if we take into account OTL Gasto who always pushed for the modernization of the Brazilian army (he was an army man more than anything). The urban elite again depends on how he will govern , the unpopularity will depend in whether he will allow republican newspapers to exist (something Dom Pedro allowed, and something extremely dumb on his part).

As for the monarcy-army relations, I think a second war would only worsen it. The monarchy wasn't interested in changing it's favour from the National Guard to the Army,

At OTL with Dom Pedro in charge.

if it was it would have done it after the OTL war. IMO if more wars happen, the army would feel even more entitled to stage a coup and rule the country that they """"saved"""".

Again this depends on how the army is governed. The army controlled by Dom Pedro will not be the same army governed by Gaston. And again it wasn't the whole army it was a part of the army that was republican (not the majority).