Pedro I of Brazil dies in September 1825

[The Gybson Boy]

Emperor Pedro I of Brazil and his wife Empress Maria Leopoldina
As the title says, let's say that in September 1825, the young emperor of brazil falls from a horse and dies at the age of 26, less than 3 years after proclaiming the independence of the country he loves so much, at this moment his wife is 6-7 months pregnant, her posthumous son is emperor before he is even born, the uprising in Cisplatina began less than a month ago and the general war did not start until Christmas, the wife and now widow of Pedro I, Princess Maria Leopoldina da Austria would certainly be appointed regent during her son's minority, it would be a long 18 year regency (or 14 if you think the "coming of age coup" can still happen), what changes in the history of Brazil does this entail?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Emperor Pedro I of Brazil and his wife Empress Maria Leopoldina
As the title says, let's say that in September 1825, the young emperor of brazil falls from a horse and dies at the age of 26, less than 3 years after proclaiming the independence of the country he loves so much, at this moment his wife is 6-7 months pregnant, her posthumous son is emperor before he is even born, the uprising in Cisplatina began less than a month ago and the general war did not start until Christmas, the wife and now widow of Pedro I, Princess Maria Leopoldina da Austria would certainly be appointed regent during her son's minority, it would be a long 18 year regency (or 14 if you think the "coming of age coup" can still happen), what changes in the history of Brazil does this entail?

For the better, I hope, since Leopoldine was far and away more capable than Pedro. Miguel will be the default in Portugal, so no Miguelist Wars (although that's debatable)

@John I of Brazil @unprincipled peter @Guilherme Loureiro @nandalf @ByzantineCaesar @Viriato @Lusitania @RedAquilla

 

[Prince di Corsica]

Quite an interesting scenario, I'll try to tackle the Portuguese side a bit first. I've actually been reading into this lately for a project.

When King João VI dies, it's quite likely that the Regent Princess calls Miguel to the throne, without Pedro around to fashion his compromise. The absence of an active Constitution will make it harder for liberals to oppose him, and indeed it's likely the first years of his reign will look quite a bit like OTL, although without as much persecution of liberal opponents, especially in the countryside. Then again, maybe not, because the persecutions were more about lingering resentments than any sort of official policy.

Now, a lot of the reasons why the Miguelist regime fell was because of the revolutionary change in Europe, with France getting the July Monarchy, England getting a new Whig government and Spain getting a more liberal-inclined Regency facing the Carlists. This made the European powers turn from sympathetic to the regime to sympathetic to the liberals and, when the tide began to turn, openly siding with the liberals. Now, without Pedro, the liberals lose their figurehead, but these diplomatic forces are still at play. Which leaves us with some possibilities:

1) The regime withstands and is able to remain as an absolutist monarchy in a sea of liberal monarchies. A situation that probably would crumble when 1848 arrives at the latest

2) Dom Miguel chills out (or, depending on your reading of the period, never goes full reactionary) and allows for some modest reform to happen, perhaps to the right of the OTL 1826 Charter, but not that different. This seems quite likely, as without the war there would be more liberal voices in administrative positions and Dom Miguel himself never seemed to keen on ruling, and with the death of his mother losing a strong incentive to keep pushing for that. Again, depending on how absolutist this regime is it might fare better or worse once 1848 arrives

3) A liberal revolt, if not directly backed at least entertained by the British and French, removes Dom Miguel from power, possibly if he starts to support the Carlists in the war and pisses out the other powers through that. A constitutional regime would come into place (probably not with the 1822 Constitution, but it's possible too) and the question is who replaces Miguel? A republic seems unlikely in the current climate, pan-Iberism is still in its infancy (and with the Carlist Wars raging and an infant girl on the Spanish throne seeming less palatable), unification with Brazil is out of the question, other dynastic connections are quite in bed with the Miguelist-Carlist camp, and bringing in an European prince... Could happen. Seems a bit of a fragile arrangement, but it's not like Spain didn't have that happen a few decades later (and not go that well, but alas)

Hopefully someone will refute some of my statements here, since that will probably make me note some things I am wrong about for my project too hehe.

I may try my hand at Brazil later, but let's wait and see what other people more knowledgeable about that say first.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Quite an interesting scenario, I'll try to tackle the Portuguese side a bit first. I've actually been reading into this lately for a project.

When King João VI dies, it's quite likely that the Regent Princess calls Miguel to the throne, without Pedro around to fashion his compromise. The absence of an active Constitution will make it harder for liberals to oppose him, and indeed it's likely the first years of his reign will look quite a bit like OTL, although without as much persecution of liberal opponents, especially in the countryside. Then again, maybe not, because the persecutions were more about lingering resentments than any sort of official policy.

Now, a lot of the reasons why the Miguelist regime fell was because of the revolutionary change in Europe, with France getting the July Monarchy, England getting a new Whig government and Spain getting a more liberal-inclined Regency facing the Carlists. This made the European powers turn from sympathetic to the regime to sympathetic to the liberals and, when the tide began to turn, openly siding with the liberals. Now, without Pedro, the liberals lose their figurehead, but these diplomatic forces are still at play. Which leaves us with some possibilities:

1) The regime withstands and is able to remain as an absolutist monarchy in a sea of liberal monarchies. A situation that probably would crumble when 1848 arrives at the latest

2) Dom Miguel chills out (or, depending on your reading of the period, never goes full reactionary) and allows for some modest reform to happen, perhaps to the right of the OTL 1826 Charter, but not that different. This seems quite likely, as without the war there would be more liberal voices in administrative positions and Dom Miguel himself never seemed to keen on ruling, and with the death of his mother losing a strong incentive to keep pushing for that. Again, depending on how absolutist this regime is it might fare better or worse once 1848 arrives

3) A liberal revolt, if not directly backed at least entertained by the British and French, removes Dom Miguel from power, possibly if he starts to support the Carlists in the war and pisses out the other powers through that. A constitutional regime would come into place (probably not with the 1822 Constitution, but it's possible too) and the question is who replaces Miguel? A republic seems unlikely in the current climate, pan-Iberism is still in its infancy (and with the Carlist Wars raging and an infant girl on the Spanish throne seeming less palatable), unification with Brazil is out of the question, other dynastic connections are quite in bed with the Miguelist-Carlist camp, and bringing in an European prince... Could happen. Seems a bit of a fragile arrangement, but it's not like Spain didn't have that happen a few decades later (and not go that well, but alas)

Hopefully someone will refute some of my statements here, since that will probably make me note some things I am wrong about for my project too hehe.

I may try my hand at Brazil later, but let's wait and see what other people more knowledgeable about that say first.

This all seems reasonable. It is likely that Joao is still poisoned as OTL. It is possible, with no adult heir but Miguel, Joao would have named an heir IF he disapproves of Miguel.

In Brazil, Leopoldina would have her hands full trying to maintain a regency. There's no guarantee she automatically gets the nod. All the competing factions are going to be vying for control. Portugal won't accept her controlling the succession in Portugal. The pragmatic thing would be to just finalize the divorce by declaring the Brazil branch of Braganza relinquishes any claim to Portugal. No matter which way you slice it, the future of Portugal is altered.

Are we assuming the POD puts Leopoldina in a position to survive? Certainly the pregnancy/miscarriage is butterflied. Some accounts point to the death being related to perpueral fever related to intestinal hemmorage. There's a popular story of Pedro beating her, although that seems to be more myth than reality. She's spared the tremendous humiliation and resultant depression/downturn in health Pedro inflicted on her with his publicly raising the status of his mistress. I think Brazil fares better if she lives. With her death, you have no moderating force and an infant Emperor.

The Cisplatine war will still go badly. Blame still needs to be pointed somewhere. The Regency, no matter whom is at the helm, is a likely target.

The politics of Brazil go differently without the disastrous personality of Pedro I. Leopoldina might be able to act as a moderating figure. If we imbue her with some political prowess, she could guide the country through infancy. She would not be able to impose her will, so she may be a more conciliatory figure. The various factions may see the value in her in this role. This is all good for Brazil. Or...they could toss her to the wayside, and Brazilian politics becomes a free for all.

 

[The Gybson Boy]

Quite an interesting scenario, I'll try to tackle the Portuguese side a bit first. I've actually been reading into this lately for a project.

When King João VI dies, it's quite likely that the Regent Princess calls Miguel to the throne, without Pedro around to fashion his compromise. The absence of an active Constitution will make it harder for liberals to oppose him, and indeed it's likely the first years of his reign will look quite a bit like OTL, although without as much persecution of liberal opponents, especially in the countryside. Then again, maybe not, because the persecutions were more about lingering resentments than any sort of official policy.

Now, a lot of the reasons why the Miguelist regime fell was because of the revolutionary change in Europe, with France getting the July Monarchy, England getting a new Whig government and Spain getting a more liberal-inclined Regency facing the Carlists. This made the European powers turn from sympathetic to the regime to sympathetic to the liberals and, when the tide began to turn, openly siding with the liberals. Now, without Pedro, the liberals lose their figurehead, but these diplomatic forces are still at play. Which leaves us with some possibilities:

1) The regime withstands and is able to remain as an absolutist monarchy in a sea of liberal monarchies. A situation that probably would crumble when 1848 arrives at the latest

2) Dom Miguel chills out (or, depending on your reading of the period, never goes full reactionary) and allows for some modest reform to happen, perhaps to the right of the OTL 1826 Charter, but not that different. This seems quite likely, as without the war there would be more liberal voices in administrative positions and Dom Miguel himself never seemed to keen on ruling, and with the death of his mother losing a strong incentive to keep pushing for that. Again, depending on how absolutist this regime is it might fare better or worse once 1848 arrives

3) A liberal revolt, if not directly backed at least entertained by the British and French, removes Dom Miguel from power, possibly if he starts to support the Carlists in the war and pisses out the other powers through that. A constitutional regime would come into place (probably not with the 1822 Constitution, but it's possible too) and the question is who replaces Miguel? A republic seems unlikely in the current climate, pan-Iberism is still in its infancy (and with the Carlist Wars raging and an infant girl on the Spanish throne seeming less palatable), unification with Brazil is out of the question, other dynastic connections are quite in bed with the Miguelist-Carlist camp, and bringing in an European prince... Could happen. Seems a bit of a fragile arrangement, but it's not like Spain didn't have that happen a few decades later (and not go that well, but alas)

Hopefully someone will refute some of my statements here, since that will probably make me note some things I am wrong about for my project too hehe.

I may try my hand at Brazil later, but let's wait and see what other people more knowledgeable about that say first.

I believe that Miguel would have gotten the Portuguese throne without much effort here, on the one hand Leopoldina would certainly like to have her daughter as queen of Portugal, on the other hand she would be very busy with the Cisplatina rebels and she is smart enough to know what to fight for in two wars at the same time would be political suicide, speaking of which, how do you think she would deal with Cisplatina, would there be a different outcome?

How absolutist would Miguel's government be? honestly i think without the war miguel would be relatively moderate, he was a traditionalist, not a madman who thought he was Louis XIV, i imagine he would certainly support the carlists during the war, even launch an invasion to support carlos V, the carlists may end up winning.
As for 1848, a liberal revolt would certainly happen and we have several variables for this:
1: Total victory of the liberals: The liberals take over Portugal and overthrow Miguel, if he already has a son, a liberal regency could be installed, if not the throne could be offered to someone else in Spain in 1866.
2: Inconclusive Result: The revolt is destroyed, Miguel keeps the throne but is forced to make some concessions to the liberals.
3: Total repression of the revolt: The revolt is completely destroyed, the rebels are all executed and Portugal remains as a reactionary conservative regime similar to post-1848 Austria.

 

[The Gybson Boy]

This all seems reasonable. It is likely that Joao is still poisoned as OTL. It is possible, with no adult heir but Miguel, Joao would have named an heir IF he disapproves of Miguel.

In Brazil, Leopoldina would have her hands full trying to maintain a regency. There's no guarantee she automatically gets the nod. All the competing factions are going to be vying for control. Portugal won't accept her controlling the succession in Portugal. The pragmatic thing would be to just finalize the divorce by declaring the Brazil branch of Braganza relinquishes any claim to Portugal. No matter which way you slice it, the future of Portugal is altered.

Out of all people, Leopoldina is the most credited with maintaining the Regency, she is a very popular and beloved figure, mother of the emperor and a remarkable politician, I agree that Leopoldina probably wouldn't care much for Portugal, unlike her husband.

Are we assuming the POD puts Leopoldina in a position to survive? Certainly the pregnancy/miscarriage is butterflied. Some accounts point to the death being related to perpueral fever related to intestinal hemmorage. There's a popular story of Pedro beating her, although that seems to be more myth than reality. She's spared the tremendous humiliation and resultant depression/downturn in health Pedro inflicted on her with his publicly raising the status of his mistress. I think Brazil fares better if she lives. With her death, you have no moderating force and an infant Emperor.

Her death would be avoided, in OTL she dies after miscarrying a baby boy in December 1826, that and more than a year after PoD

Changing the subject, would it be possible that with Leopoldina's influence, Brazil would evolve to a model of government similar to Austria? As Leopoldina's presence influenced the marriage of her children, in 1826 she would have four daughters and a son:
Princess Maria da Gloria (born 1819)
Princess Januaria (born 1822)
Princess Paula (Born 1823, died 1833, but with PoD her death can be prevented)
Princess Francisca (born 1824)
Emperor Pedro II (Born in 1825, the most important of the children, in OTL the ambassadors wanted to get him a Habsburg bride, but the Vienna court was afraid that he would be like his father, as Leopoldina is alive she can get a Habsburg bride for Pedro, or at least a princess from a minor Catholic kingdom, such as Bavaria or Saxony)

 

[lusitano 1996]

I think people are being way to optimistic , and just are big fans of leopoldina , honestly i think that without the figure of pedro I or pedro II , there is a real chance of brazil breaking up into several republics , i dont see a better brazil , i think people underestimate the importance of both pedro I and pedro II as unifing figures, ralling points that could ancor brazil so to speak , without the monarchy brazil would almost certanintly not be a single country today.

 

[The Gybson Boy]

I think people are being way to optimistic , and just are big fans of leopoldina , honestly i think that without the figure of pedro I or pedro II , there is a real chance of brazil breaking up into several republics , i dont see a better brazil , i think people underestimate the importance of both pedro I and pedro II as unifing figures, ralling points that could ancor brazil so to speak , without the monarchy brazil would almost certanintly not be a single country today.

Leopoldina would be a unifying figure in this scenario, as much as I believe that Pedro I was an essential piece in Brazilian history, many of his actions in his later reign were completely stupid, like parading his lover as if she were his wife publicly even knowing that his wife was immensely more popular and bought a fight for the throne of Portugal even knowing that the Brazilian public opinion hated the idea and believed that he cared more about Portugal than Brazil, Pedro I was an admirable figure but he lost his crown out of sheer pride and folly.
I also don't see the point why Brazil would split here, if in OTL Brazil didn't fall apart during the regency period even with a bunch of imcopent regents in power why would it split here when they have a regent who is unifying and knows rule properly.

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

Cabanagem will likely still happen.
No idea about Cisplatina, could the PoD change anything about the war?

 

[The Gybson Boy]

A short list of possible brides for Pedro II in this scenario:
Austrian-Habsburgs
Archduchess Maria Karoline of Austria (Born in 1825)
Archduchess Adelaide of Austria (Born in 1822)
Minors Habsburg (Tuscany, Modena, Teschen)
Princess Auguste Ferdinande of Austria (Tuscany) (Born in 1825)
Wittelsbachs (Bavaria)
Princess Adelgunde of Bavaria (Born in 1823)
Princess Hildegard of Bavaria (Born in 1825)
Princess Alexandra of Bavaria (Born in 1826)
Princess Theresa of Bavaria (Born in 1850)
Wettins (Saxony)
Princess Elisabeth of Saxony (Born in 1850)
Italians Bourbons (Parma, Two Sicilies)
Teresa Cristina of the Two Sicilies (Born in 1822) (Pedro II wife in OTL)
Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies (Born in 1822)

 

[The Gybson Boy]

Cabanagem will likely still happen.
No idea about Cisplatina, could the PoD change anything about the war?

Practically the entire War, the PoD is in September 1825, the Cisplatine revolt started in August and the General War only broke out in December

 

[lusitano 1996]

Leopoldina would be a unifying figure in this scenario, as much as I believe that Pedro I was an essential piece in Brazilian history, many of his actions in his later reign were completely stupid, like parading his lover as if she were his wife publicly even knowing that his wife was immensely more popular and bought a fight for the throne of Portugal even knowing that the Brazilian public opinion hated the idea and believed that he cared more about Portugal than Brazil, Pedro I was an admirable figure but he lost his crown out of sheer pride and folly.
I also don't see the point why Brazil would split here, if in OTL Brazil didn't fall apart during the regency period even with a bunch of imcopent regents in power why would it split here when they have a regent who is unifying and knows rule properly.

Pedro is a man , leopoldina is a woman as is foreign that counts , she might have been popular before , but now alone the voltures are going to come out of the shadows , during the regency again pedro II was that anchor , in this timeline i think the revolts are going to be bolder and without a unifing force things are going to be rough , in otl things could have gone wrong , in this one i predict more instabilily .

 

[RedAquilla]

Prince di Corsica made a good analysis of the Portuguese side, I would argue that the biggest problem in Portugal is Carlota Joaquina as she likely indirectly killed John VI and exacerbated Miguel's absolutist policies. If John VI gets rid of her or she dies, he may live longer, get a more moderate constitution decreed, get Miguel to swear it and respect it, get Miguel to marry OTL Maria II to unite claims (and give John VI's blood to Miguel's descendants because he was not John's son). With Carlota present, everything goes as in OTL except a civil war might take longer to erupt.

In Brazil, I think Leopoldina would struggle with keeping the Regency in her hands and with the poor result of the Cisplatine War she might be pushed out of the political scene. She might even die as some pointed out. I did find an interesting thing in the POD presented, how do they know Leopoldina's child is a boy? If Peter I dies in the POD, his daughter, OTL Maria II becomes the Empress, no? They could theoretically wait to learn if the posthumous child is a boy or a girl...

 

[The Gybson Boy]

how do they know Leopoldina's child is a boy? If Peter I dies in the POD, his daughter, OTL Maria II becomes the Empress, no? They could theoretically wait to learn if the posthumous child is a boy or a girl...

They don't know, it's the same situation that happened after the death of Alfonso XII, a regency is declared, if the baby is a girl then the throne will go to Maria da Gloria, if it's a boy the throne will be his.

 

[RedAquilla]

They don't know, it's the same situation that happened after the death of Alfonso XII, a regency is declared, if the baby is a girl then the throne will go to Maria da Gloria, if it's a boy the throne will be his.

Yes...a Regency will be in place either way. I was looking at it by following only the perspective of the list of monarchs.

 

[holycookie]

I think people are being way to optimistic , and just are big fans of leopoldina , honestly i think that without the figure of pedro I or pedro II , there is a real chance of brazil breaking up into several republics , i dont see a better brazil , i think people underestimate the importance of both pedro I and pedro II as unifing figures, ralling points that could ancor brazil so to speak , without the monarchy brazil would almost certanintly not be a single country today.

Yes and no Pedro II is very important, Pedro I not so much. The man managed to be expelled from Brazil, for losing cisplatin and betraying the empress (His extramarital sexual affairs created huge scandals and also tarnished his reputation. Empress Leopoldina was loved by all the Brazilian people, and her popularity was even greater and more expressive than that of Pedro). The liberal revolutions that occur in france and portugal do not occur in brazil for good reason the country was not liberal. The country is not the US that has liberal ideas, the country has always been a pyramid of power. What the country wanted was a constitutional monarchy not a republic, they got it. The only successful revolt was cisplatin due to foreign support (Argentina) the rest were very isolated being unable to survive alone. Regarding the cisplatin war, I don't know the outcome in this timeline, the Brazilian navy will dominate the sea. But on land, the same thing can happen in OTL, but if the United Provinces of Rio de la Plata loses only one battle, the war is almost over.

 

[lusitano 1996]

Yes and no Pedro II is very important, Pedro I not so much. The man managed to be expelled from Brazil, for losing cisplatin and betraying the empress (His extramarital sexual affairs created huge scandals and also tarnished his reputation. Empress Leopoldina was loved by all the Brazilian people, and her popularity was even greater and more expressive than that of Pedro). The liberal revolutions that occur in france and portugal do not occur in brazil for good reason the country was not liberal. The country is not the US that has liberal ideas, the country has always been a pyramid of power. What the country wanted was a constitutional monarchy not a republic, they got it. The only successful revolt was cisplatin due to foreign support (Argentina) the rest were very isolated being unable to survive alone. Regarding the cisplatin war, I don't know the outcome in this timeline, the Brazilian navy will dominate the sea. But on land, the same thing can happen in OTL, but if the United Provinces of Rio de la Plata loses only one battle, the war is almost over.

So you think that without the monarchy brazil would have managed to stay this massive contry ? no way , spanish america broke up because it dindnt have a figure to unite them , brazil did , and pedro was very important , denyng that makes no sense , brazil had plenty of revoltes and separatist movements , but they always could rely on that good old monarchy as a anchor to unite everyone , the ascencion of pedro II is a good proof of that , compared to spanish america brazil was a haven of stability .

 

[holycookie]

So you think that without the monarchy brazil would have managed to stay this massive contry ? no way , spanish america broke up because it dindnt have a figure to unite them , brazil did , and pedro was very important , denyng that makes no sense , brazil had plenty of revoltes and separatist movements , but they always could rely on that good old monarchy as a anchor to unite everyone , the ascencion of pedro II is a good proof of that , compared to spanish america brazil was a haven of stability .

Brazil will remain a monarchy. I don't know where you got that I said that Brazil will become a republic. As a whole, having the Emperor die in this TL or him being expelled in the OTL did not end monarchism.

 

[holycookie]

What do you think will happen?
@Kaiser of Brazil, @Aluma, @ToasterOven456, @Gabingston, @Gloss and @Taunay.

 

[lusitano 1996]

Brazil will remain a monarchy. I don't know where you got that I said that Brazil will become a republic. As a whole, having the Emperor die in this TL or him being expelled in the OTL did not end monarchism.

I didnt say it will become a republic , i was saying that it would be worse for brazil in this cenario , everyone seems optimistic , i disagreed , just my opinion.