Pearl Harbor: The Disaster Which Doomed Imperial Japan (The attack goes wrong)

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
Realistically speaking in OTL it did lead to that outcome in the end, but what we're looking at here is an operation which goes wrong right at the start of the war.

This can be a loss of some vessels, greater aircraft losses, a failure in the attack such as lack of surprise, or also disastrous losses for the IJN across airgroups and vessels, or anything else we can consider. The more damaging the more it meets the goal of the title.

Let's see what the good membership of these fora can come up with and the thoughts and discussions regarding this.


Sargon
 
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Realistically speaking in OTL it did lead to that outcome in the end, but what we're looking at here is an operation which goes wrong right at the start of the war.

This can be a loss of some vessels, greater aircraft losses, a failure in the attack such as lack of surprise, or also disastrous losses for the IJN across airgroups and vessels, or anything else we can consider. The more damaging the more it meets the goal of the title.

Let's see what the good membership of these fora can come up with and the thoughts and discussions regarding this.


Sargon
Bringing along a big chunk of the Japanese battle line & then try to use it for shore bombardment against alerted coastal defences?
 

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
Bringing along a big chunk of the Japanese battle line & then try to use it for shore bombardment against alerted coastal defences?

I'm thinking more of the OTL operation as it was historically composed in terms of forces really.

I suppose other force dispositions could be discussed if necessary.


Sargon
 
I'm thinking more of the OTL operation as it was historically composed in terms of forces really.

I suppose other force dispositions could be discussed if necessary.


Sargon
Apologies it was more a sarcastic response poking a bit of fun at a recent 20 page plus thread with the op trying to argue what a fantastic plan this would be. I don't mean to distract from far more sensible discussion around your idea.
 
Kimmel remembers to put up torpedo nets in the harbour. Murata is forced to implement Genda and Fuchida's hare brained OTL scheme for dealing with them - selecting volunteers from amongst his B5N crews to destroy the nets by crashing their aircraft onto them.

This goes about as well as it sounds: disastrously. The suicide squads are largely unable to spot, let alone accurately hit the buoys that hold the nets in place, and are lost in futile crash dives, blunting the numbers of attacking B5Ns while achieving little. Only a handful of the remainder, who boldly opt for different attack angles/approaches (including Juzo Mori), achieve meaningful hits, which are insufficient to sink anything from the battle line - the rest find their torpedoes stopped completely cold by the netting.

It's all up to Fuchida's level bombers now, but given that the first phase has gone off half cocked, the Americans have been granted the precious minutes required to mobilise a defence. The AA gunners find the range and stymie the lead bombardiers' aim where they do not outright cause losses; Fuchida's force achieves one or two hits, but Tadashi Kusumi's OTL knockout blow to Arizona is not among them.

Desperate to salvage something out of this disaster, Fuchida diverts the first wave D3As, originally slated to bomb the airfields, to the harbour instead. Armed with land bombs rather than armour piercers, their weapons cause some topside damage but little else - a poor return for the losses they end up incurring.

No thanks to the D3As' emergency redeployment, the airfields are largely spared. As a result, both the withdrawing first wave and the inbound second wave are met by a swarm of interceptors that outnumber and overwhelm Itaya's A6Ms. By the end of the entire affair, Kido Butai's aircrews are gutted, with the loss of many squadron and flight leaders including Fuchida, Murata, Takahashi and Shimazaki.

In his haste to shepherd the few surviving bombers to safety, Itaya does not initially realise he is being tailed on his way back to Kido Butai. By the time he shakes off his pursuers, Kimmel and Short have already figured out the direction in which to send every available land based strike aircraft.

With nothing but a skeleton force providing CAP, Kido Butai's fate is sealed the moment the first B-17s and SBDs appear on the scene. In exchange for trifling American losses, Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu are all fatally hit; Nagumo, Yamaguchi and Genda share the fate of these ships. Chuichi Hara can do nothing else but send Shokaku and Zuikaku, the former moderately damaged but still miraculously underway, fleeing westwards and he does not stop running until he reaches Truk Lagoon.

Unfortunately, he is still there with both carriers when Enterprise, Saratoga and Lexington, a vengeful Bull Halsey leading them, come a-calling several days later...
 
I have often wondered what would have happened if the Kido Butai was simply sighted at sea by a merchant vessel and if it had transmitted a warning? I believe it is save to assume with all the Magic traffic having been read by the US that these carriers being discovered transiting eastward is a giveaway that they plan to attack Pearl Harbor?

Would Nagumo have been ordered to return to the Home Islands and now that the cat is out of the bag, how does the US react to Japan even though now there is no PH attack?

Further, does Japan still move on the southern territories per the same schedule or having lost that element of surprise that they are intending war with everybody, does suddenly the IJN (at least) cancel everything and hope the US doesn't declare war on Japan?
 
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I have often wondered what would have happened if the Kido Butai was simply sighted at sea by a merchant vessel and if it had transmitted a warning? Would Nagumo have been ordered to return and now that the cat is out of the bag, how does the US react to Japan even though now there is no PH attack?
Nagumo had very explicit instructions about what to do if spotted:

1. If discovered prior to "X"-minus-2-day, the Task Force was to return to Japan without executing the attack.

2. If discovered prior to "X"-1-day, the decision as to what action to take was the responsibility of the Task Force Commander.

3. If discovered on "X"-minus-1-day or the morning of "S"-day the Task Force was to continue with the attack.

4. If at any time during the approach to Pearl Harbor the negotiations with the United States had been successful the attack would have been cancelled.

You can bet Roosevelt will order a strike on Kido Butai if it's rumbled en route.
 

chankljp

Donor
Just off the top of my head, from the video game "Order of Battle: World War II", when playing the mission for Pearl Harbor as the US, you can get an ATL scenario by minimizing US loses while maximizing the same for Japan. Starting with not mistaking the first wave of attack as B-17 bombers that were expected to arrive from the Mainland, in having them scheduled to arrive either a day earlier or later. This perhaps will not not correctly identifying them as a surprise attack, but might just be enough to raise the alarm on the unidentify contacts.

Followed by somehow getting more then just 6 US planes in the air to fight the Japanese. One way or another, increase the number of Japanese planes that got shot down. In OTL, the Pacific War started with Japan fielding a larger number of more experienced pilots due to their invasion of China. However, that experienced generation of veterans quickly died off, while the Americans made sure to rotate their best pilots off the frontlines to become instructors. Hence, having a larger number of their pilots killed at the start of the conflict will make that issue on lowering standards worst for Japan much faster.
 

Garrison

Donor
Nagumo had very explicit instructions about what to do if spotted:

1. If discovered prior to "X"-minus-2-day, the Task Force was to return to Japan without executing the attack.

2. If discovered prior to "X"-1-day, the decision as to what action to take was the responsibility of the Task Force Commander.

3. If discovered on "X"-minus-1-day or the morning of "S"-day the Task Force was to continue with the attack.

4. If at any time during the approach to Pearl Harbor the negotiations with the United States had been successful the attack would have been cancelled.

You can bet Roosevelt will order a strike on Kido Butai if it's rumbled en route.
I do wonder if they would actually have broken off or convinced themselves said merchant ship hadn't been able to get off a report and press on? Given the aggression of the IJN and the optimism they displayed with other operations I suspect they would have talked themselves into continuing the attack.

As for PODs, a couple of last minute ones. The USS Ward's report of the engagement with the midget sub is taken seriously, or one of the subs washes up inside Pearl harbor before the attack. Or the radar report from Opana Point is likewise taken seriously, perhaps because the B-17 flight arrived earlier or wasn't scheduled for that weekend. These are a bit last minute but they might provoke a more effective air defence.
Bigger picture, the codebreakers get lucky and penetrate Japanese codes sooner, allowing the USN to ambush the Kido Butai.
 
I do wonder if they would actually have broken off or convinced themselves said merchant ship hadn't been able to get off a report and press on? Given the aggression of the IJN and the optimism they displayed with other operations I suspect they would have talked themselves into continuing the attack.
If Tamon Yamaguchi was in command, sure. But this is plodding, boring, cautious Chuichi Nagumo we're talking about here, and this is his first outing so victory disease and the overconfidence that comes with it have yet to set in. He turns back, I'm pretty sure.
 
I think knowledge that if a merchant ship had sighted them and making a report would have been known because they would have picked up that ship making the transmission. Of course, they might have attacked said merchant ship and destroyed it but what they then wouldn't know would be if that message was waking up the USN to the threat the KB was posing? I believe that Nagumo would have pulled the plug on the operation even if it happened as late as the 6th.
 
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Followed by somehow getting more then just 6 US planes in the air to fight the Japanese. One way or another, increase the number of Japanese planes that got shot down.
One thing that is often overlooked is how few A6M escorts there were in proportion to the number of bombers they accompanied. And how almost none were assigned to CLOSE escort, i.e. directly accompanying the bombers. A large and determined interception could very well have overwhelmed them.
 
I think knowledge that if a merchant ship had cited them and transmitted a report would have been known because they would have picked up that ship making the transmission. Of course what they then wouldn't know would be if that message was waking up the USN to the threat the KB was posing?
Nagumo would be all better part of valour and assume that it had.
 
How about Japan not realizing they were spotted? Say a sub spots them but is not spotted in return?
Then that is different, the KB proceeds on its way into a thoroughly prepared PH. Of course a sub would need to transmit the sighting which means the KB picks it up with pretty good certainty how close it is coming from them
 

Garrison

Donor
So if PH gets cancelled the US is still certain Japan intends war so how to they as well as the British and Dutch react to this knowledge?
If Pearl Harbor is cancelled then the attacks against Malaya, the DEI and the Philippines almost certainly go ahead and the British and Dutch were already expecting attacks.
 
Nagumo had very explicit instructions about what to do if spotted:

1. If discovered prior to "X"-minus-2-day, the Task Force was to return to Japan without executing the attack.

2. If discovered prior to "X"-1-day, the decision as to what action to take was the responsibility of the Task Force Commander.

3. If discovered on "X"-minus-1-day or the morning of "S"-day the Task Force was to continue with the attack.

4. If at any time during the approach to Pearl Harbor the negotiations with the United States had been successful the attack would have been cancelled.

You can bet Roosevelt will order a strike on Kido Butai if it's rumbled en route.
Then if it's spotted x-1, Hawaii is alerted. The US may even do a pre-emptive strike, which probably won't be succesful, but will screw up the preparations. On the other hand, if the strike arrives when the first wave is taking off, that could lead to somewhat of a carnage. Otherwise, at least the radarpost will be alerted and you get an early warning for the actual strike, so it can be attacked early and be dirupted.

Is it also possible for Lexington to join the battle if they know where the Kido Butai is? An attack from them would probably not be really succesful, but they might land a hit.
 
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