If say it is detected enroute to Hawaii, Nagumo bails on the attack and returns the Kido Butai to Japan what is the fallout? Do the Japanese go ahead with the southern operations regardless that they have more or less shown their hand? Do the Americans, British and Dutch treat the IJN fleet getting caught red handed as an act of war even though no shots have yet to be fired? Does McArthur this time actually prepare the Philippines for the airstrikes likely to come?
Pearl Harbor gets scrubbed...what happens in its wake?
- Thread starter steel_captain
- Start date
To me the US treats it as an act of war but Roosevelt still wants Japan to fire the first shots so doesn't ask Congress to declare war on Japan however all commands now know that negotiations between Japan and the US are just a faint so all that comes to an end and all the allies in the Far East can do it ready themselves the best they can knowing they likely can't stop what is coming.
I do believe that Japan goes ahead with the southern operations as per OTL.
I do believe that Japan goes ahead with the southern operations as per OTL.
Absolutely.
There is no way the Japanese can innocently explain the presence of a huge naval task force en route to Hawaii.
Yes, the Japanese believe they have no choice.
I don't think so, no. The Japanese launched their attack on the Philippines mere hours after Pearl Harbor.
Personally, I don't think King is going to change his strategic stance: the overriding priority is to secure the sea lanes between Australia, Hawaii, and the American mainland, and that's going to be the focus. The Americans probably will be more daring with their carriers, though - the battleships being intact make Hawaii more secure and for Wake specifically Kimmel was more aggressive with Saratoga than Pye was.
That was already US policy. The War Warning orders of November made it absolutely clear any Japanese ships or aircraft near US territory were to be considered hostile. That why the Ward was dropping depth charges on a suspected submarine. Commanders were authorized to attack Japanese craft. The War Warnings had the same weight as the "Shoot on Sight" order given to the USN patrols in the Atlantic a few months earlier as guidance when encountering German submarines.
I've read at least once that the Kido Butai was under orders to fight their way in to PH, or the US battle fleet, *even if detected*, rather than scrub the mission.
Has anyone else read/heard this?
Maybe this would have been a doable order, or maybe it would have been tactically, logistically unfeasible/suicidal in practice, depending how far out they were detected. A disadvantage of confronting US battlewagons underway of course is compartments are sealed, guns are manned and armed, and they can maneuver. An "advantage" is that any sunk in open ocean as opposed to the harbor can't be raised. But a disadvantage for the Japanese is their maneuver time in around any target area in the Hawaiian Islands is limited because of the need for fuel for the trip back home to Japan or at least Japanese owned refueling stations.
Is there anything the Dutch or Brits able to do with a little bit more time for preparation or are they so outgunned that it is all a fait accompli for them?
Yes, in the operational orders Nagumo issued to his command indicated that if detected within 24 hours of the attack, (ie, 6am December 6th, after refuelling had been completed), that the striking force would continue with the attack. In this case, the intention was to send the fighter unit, (maybe 80 Zeros) in first to engage and destroy USAAF defenses before attacking with the bombers.
What would Nagumo have actually done? I do not know.
The Brits no. The already knew Japanese war ships & convoys were off the Maylasian & Thai coasts when the PH attack started. Japan did not directly attack the Dutch territory until 10 January 1942. Until then there were some naval engagements and some air activity. The primary Japanese effort from 8 December to 10 January was diplomatic pressure/threats to get the Dutch governor to comply with Japanese demands.
What am wondering is it somehow the PRINCE OF WALES & REPULSE don't get sent to their doom?