Peace in the Pacific War July 1945

[Ski]

I have been reading about the Pacific War in its final months and came across a proposal by the allies to the Japanese for a negotiated peace in July 1945. If this was accepted what could both sides expect? How would the USSR react? Bare in mind in July the Japanese still controlled parts of Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia (except for most of West Irian), Manchukuo etc.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/World_War_II_1945_07.png

Also what the effects be on the modern world? Would the emperor retain much power or would Japan become a 'colonial democracy'?

 

[merlin]

I doubt what the Allies have in mind for 'negotiations' and what the Japanese have in mind are anything alike!!
I can't see it being much different from OTL in the eyes of the Allies - figure-head emperor, but Allied control of war crimes, no Japanese controlled territory outside the home islands, and Allied forces in control in Japan.

Japan's ideas were totally different, their priority was to preserve 'face' i.e. no foreigners in control in Japan, Japanese military intact, internal trial of war crimes - and probably want Okinawa back!

That's why any such 'peace talks' didn't get anywhere (and it didn't help Japan choosing Russia as a go between) Japan was on a different 'planet'!

 

[CalBear]

The Japanese "peace offer" was effectively to give them what they had wanted in 1941 before the war started and allow them to deal with any War Crime accusations against their forces internally.

More or less it was a request to return to the status quo ante at best, with an Allied surrender at worst, despite Japan having been utterly crushed. It was so far removed from reality the Swiss didn't even bother to present a version to the Allies.

 

[sloreck]

CalBear is spot on. There has been lots (dare I say a crapload) of revisionist writing that intimates there was a viable Japanese peace effort that the US ignored because we wanted to use the bomb to scare the USSR/show what badasses we were/loved the idea of killing "little yellow people" etc. Status ante is basically what the Japanese were considering, keep Manchukuo but willing to leave the rest of China, keep Korea, keep Taiwan, get Okinawa & Iwo Jima back. No occupation, and any reductions in the Japanese military to be overseen by Japanese only, no war crimes trials, and resumption of full trade. There were element in the Japanese military that thought these terms were too generous!

The unfortunate reality was there as no way that Japan was going to end the war in July 1945 on any terms the Allies would find acceptable.

 

[TheMann]

There is no way after Pearl Harbor that the US is gonna accept a negotiated peace short of a Japanese surrender. The Japanese proposal there was beyond ridiculous, effectively wanting to keep what they had gotten in 1941-42 permanently. Not gonna happen.

 

[The Vulture]

There is no way after Pearl Harbor that the US is gonna accept a negotiated peace short of a Japanese surrender. The Japanese proposal there was beyond ridiculous, effectively wanting to keep what they had gotten in 1941-42 permanently. Not gonna happen.

Absolutely agree with this. Not to mention the Chinese, Australians, New Zealanders, British, French, Dutch, and even the Portuguese wanting blood. This was not a solely United States effort by any means, and the US couldn't afford to alienate anyone by accepting a separate peace.

 

[Wolfman]

So negotiations are a moot point...

 

[jaybird]

Absolutely agree with this. Not to mention the Chinese, Australians, New Zealanders, British, French, Dutch, and even the Portuguese wanting blood. This was not a solely United States effort by any means, and the US couldn't afford to alienate anyone by accepting a separate peace.

This. Everyone wanted their pound of flesh out of Japan. With all the stories out about Japanese atrocities, it was either Downfall or Manhattan at that point, and in the end, the two nukes were the less costly option. Stalingrad would have looked like a cakewalk compared to Tokyo...

EDIT: speaking of, are there any TLs people recommend for a Downfall scenario?

 

[TheMann]

So negotiations are a moot point...

The Japanese would never give up a fraction as much as it would take for the US to accept any deal.

 

[Douglas]

Stalingrad would have looked like a cakewalk compared to Tokyo...

Not so, I think. Kyushu, perhaps, but the Kanto Plain had been denuded of troops by the estimated start of Coronet. Unless, of course, you think starving, demoralized Japanese civilians are going to really rise up in some kind of People's War against the Allies.

 

[TheMann]

Not so, I think. Kyushu, perhaps, but the Kanto Plain had been denuded of troops by the estimated start of Coronet. Unless, of course, you think starving, demoralized Japanese civilians are going to really rise up in some kind of People's War against the Allies.

I agree, but the real danger would be Kyushu being such a bloodbath that the US gives up and just shoots everything in sight, thus leaving parts of Japan almost depopulated.

 

[Bearcat]

Not so, I think. Kyushu, perhaps, but the Kanto Plain had been denuded of troops by the estimated start of Coronet. Unless, of course, you think starving, demoralized Japanese civilians are going to really rise up in some kind of People's War against the Allies.

More likely, Marpi Point, times a thousand.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Okinawa didn't give much hope to the US of Japan being prepared to surrender.

The number of regulars captured, including those severely injured, was negligible.

The number of reservists, of questionable training and worse equipment, taken amounted to barely 8%, half of them wounded.

Given the size of Japan's regular army the expectation that an invasion of Japan would be an absolute bloodbath was unbreakable after Okinawa.


I believe even MacArthur expressed the hope that Hirohito would be under a bomb or some other scenario sparing the US the choice of working with the emperor or putting him on trial, noting that the heir was too young to be guilty of anything.


As it was conditions in Japan had become so bad that MacArthur's final plea for supplies after the surrender was for Truman to either send him bread or send him bullets. A few months negotiations under a cease fire would likely have killed millions in Japan.

 

[Derek Jackson]

Negotiating though someone who was not the USSR the USA could offer this choice.

Japan surrenders conditionally- the only condition being that the existence of an Emporer as a figurehead is allowed to the US in July 1945 or faces eventual occupation not only by the US but also in the Norhern part of the Home Islands by Stalin's USSR.

 

[Markus]

I agree, but the real danger would be Kyushu being such a bloodbath that the US gives up and just shoots everything in sight, thus leaving parts of Japan almost depopulated.

Hence the idea not to invade Kyushu and go straight to Tokyo. IIRC an idea opposed by CalBear most "favourate" general on the grounds that he would not have been in charge any more.

 

[CalBear]

Hence the idea not to invade Kyushu and go straight to Tokyo. IIRC an idea opposed by CalBear most "favourate" general on the grounds that he would not have been in charge any more.

All too true.

You had the Navy, Marines, and General Marshall all saying "Gee, it looks like the enemy has got us figured out on this whole Kyushu thing, maybe we need to try something different" & Dugout Doug saying ""It won't be that bad. Acceptable losses."

 

[Bearcat]

All too true.

You had the Navy, Marines, and General Marshall all saying "Gee, it looks like the enemy has got us figured out on this whole Kyushu thing, maybe we need to try something different" & Dugout Doug saying ""It won't be that bad. Acceptable losses."

Well, it wouldn't, for MacArthur. He'd sit on his cruiser, watching the battle, taking all the credit, ducking all the blame. And making sure no other names made it into the press. And his fawning acolytes in said press in the US would go along with it. What could go wrong?

What MacArthur deserved in ww2 was to somehow change places with Stilwell, and end up safely out of the way, playing Dueling Napoleonic Complexes with the Peanut of Chungking.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Why is it that Japan is worthy of a conditional surrender and that not all ends justify the means in getting an unconditional surrender, but this argument does not apply to Germany?

 

[CalBear]

Well, it wouldn't, for MacArthur. He'd sit on his cruiser, watching the battle, taking all the credit, ducking all the blame. And making sure no other names made it into the press. And his fawning acolytes in said press in the US would go along with it. What could go wrong?

What MacArthur deserved in ww2 was to somehow change places with Stilwell, and end up safely out of the way, playing Dueling Napoleonic Complexes with the Peanut of Chungking.

What MacArthur deserved was a General Court Marshall for his horrible, borderline criminal, handling of the Philippines. Wasn't going to happen, not with the war and the need to paint the best face on things.

What he should, however, have gotten was a command of a Military District, maybe Kansas City where his ego wouldn't have dug quite so many graves.

 

[usertron2020]

Hey! I thought we were all racists favoring Germany?!

Why is it that Japan is worthy of a conditional surrender and that not all ends justify the means in getting an unconditional surrender, but this argument does not apply to Germany?

Brutal facts on the ground. Germany doesn't have terrain just 2 orders of magnitude less difficult than Switzerland. Plus, the Germans had for a leader someone who since Stalingrad had been fighting for one reason and one reason only: to save his own skin. When the Japanese told Truman they accepted the Potsdam Declaration, they declared that it: "Was with the understanding that said declaration does not interfere with His Majesty's prerogatives as a sovereign ruler." The arguement went back and forth between Truman and his advisors. The Secretary of State objected and quoted Canberra's demands that :"The Emperor should enjoy no protections from prosecution as a War Criminal." The Secretary of War (Henry Stimson) reminded everyone that in the last war they made the Kaiser out to be a demon, and forced the Germans to do away with their monarchy altogether." The Under-Secretary of state (George Ball) chimed in:"And you left a great big hole Hitler could just march right in, and fill."

Truman decided that the emperor could stay, but he would be subject to the authority of the Supreme Allied Commander. The Secretary of State, in good humor, replied:"And since that's likely to be good 'ol Douglas MacArthur, it'll be one deity answering to another!"lol by all

The Germans were getting fed. The Japanese Minister for the Home Economy predicted (accurately) the whole Japanese economy would collapse no later than 10/1/45. As Grimm Reaper said, times had gotten supremely desperate for Japan. Check out a Japanese/Canadian film "Hiroshima". It's an eye opener.

Economic collapse, imminent invasion, the firestorms, famine from the sub blockade, Hiroshima, the Soviet DoW, Nagasaki, the Emperor's Decision, putting down a last minute coup that came close to succeeding, the broadcast, and only then could Japan surrender. Anything less the Allies would never accept. When the first American troops arrived, do you know what their first target was? IJA Chief of Staff Sugiyama. Why? He personally signed the death warrants for the 3 executed Doolittle fliers.
What goes around comes around.