PC:surviving Poland Lithuania with first partition borders
- Thread starter walmart
- Start date
People on this forum often say that the Commonwealth could have limpered on into the 19th century had it not pursued radical reforms and continued to keep its head low.
I'm not certain on that, I'm of the opinion that the PLC was not going to stay a Russian protectorate forever and eventually there would be some border readjustment in favor of the surrounding powers, especially if the Napoleonic Wars happen on schedule (though maybe with a rump Polish state remaining somewhere), but hey, at least that's an option.
I'm not certain on that, I'm of the opinion that the PLC was not going to stay a Russian protectorate forever and eventually there would be some border readjustment in favor of the surrounding powers, especially if the Napoleonic Wars happen on schedule (though maybe with a rump Polish state remaining somewhere), but hey, at least that's an option.
Hmm.
Take Galicia, take Pomerelia, take the East Slavic territories, probably take Lithuania...
Hey, we're left with Congress Poland.
Maybe that.
Anyway they could retain Lithuania and along with parts of Belarus and Ukraine ?
PLC doesn't need to keep head low for long time. It just need to survive until Napoleon. It is easier to do with first partition avoided, which is doable if
a) Poniatowski and Czartoryski are really loyal to Russia and are consulting their reforms with Catherine.
b) Catherine behaves more resonable and does not humiliate Poles for no other reason than to show who is the boss. What she gained by supporting emancipation of non-Catholics in PLC except for Bar Confederation?
Third May Constitution was slap on Catherine's face, but she was in large part responsible for it due to her arrogance towards Poles.
PLC surviving until Napoleonic Wars means that PLC is is allowed to rebuild her army, which would be needed to fight 'Godless French'. Recruits and resources of PLC could not be wasted in such circumstances. Napoleon would still defeat PLC and would need to build working administration there to feed his war machine. Post Napoleonic Wars PLC would not resemble 18th century PLC.
a) Poniatowski and Czartoryski are really loyal to Russia and are consulting their reforms with Catherine.
b) Catherine behaves more resonable and does not humiliate Poles for no other reason than to show who is the boss. What she gained by supporting emancipation of non-Catholics in PLC except for Bar Confederation?
Third May Constitution was slap on Catherine's face, but she was in large part responsible for it due to her arrogance towards Poles.
PLC surviving until Napoleonic Wars means that PLC is is allowed to rebuild her army, which would be needed to fight 'Godless French'. Recruits and resources of PLC could not be wasted in such circumstances. Napoleon would still defeat PLC and would need to build working administration there to feed his war machine. Post Napoleonic Wars PLC would not resemble 18th century PLC.
Well, no reforms, no troubles, no serious reasons for the foreign interference and "readjustments". There were certain advantages for the neighbors in having the post-1st partition PLC as a buffer state. For how long this stagnation mode could continue is a different issue: on one hand the PLC's weakness was an "international advantage" but OTOH the same weakness meant that practically any disagreement with status quo (or with a foreign dominance) was resulting in a military action (like Bar Confederation) with the malcontents looking for the help outside the PLC (while the regime would also expect foreign help) and the domino effects like the Russian-Turkish War of 1768-1774. Which, in turn, would almost inevitably force the outside powers to rethink the border "adjustments", etc. Taking into an account that a lowly pragmatism never was a strong point of the Polish political figures of the XVIII century, I quite agree with you that period of peace would be limited.
Military weakness of PLC would no longer be advantage for everyone in face of Napoleonic danger. Keeping PLC without army means, that resources and recruits of PLC could not be used to fight Napoleon.
Which means that everybody knows that Napoleon (and French Revolution) is going to happen.
Actually, this was complicated because Catherine had been under pressure from "inside": unequal treatment of the Orthodox bishops in the PLC was considered an offense to the Orthodoxy in general and to the position of Russian monarch as "protector of the Orthodox faith". And, being who she was and coming to power as (among other things) a defender of the Orthodox Church against Peter III, Catherine could not just let it go on.
Would longer living Elizaveta Petrovna on her place afford to resist that 'inner pressure'?
Probably. However, Elizabeth was also feeling herself quite free to treat the PLC territory as pretty much her own before and during the 7YW and the same was the case with Anna Ioannovna before her. So if somebody in the PLC was looking for a reason to be offended, there were plenty of those and, with the foreign troops being on your land and foreign ambassador dictating your policies, surely the religion issue should be something of an icing on the cake.