PC: Map of Europe in 1811 - Austria TL

[Diego]

So, I have been working on a TL and I would like to know what you think about the plausibility of this map:

The map shows Europe after an Austrian victory at Wagram in 1809, and an Alternative Congress of Vienna in 1810. In this TL Austria rolled only 20s, Archduke John was able to get to the field of battle in time, he fell on Davout that ended the battle injured. Meanwhile, the French bridgehead was captured and the path of retreat of Napoleon was cut by the Austrian 6th Corps. The charge of Bessieres ended up in failure and also with him being killed, partly because of the failure of the cavalry Massena was attacked during the redeployment taking massive casualties, Macdonald also died in a suicide attack against the Austrian center. After that the major part of the French Army on that side of the river was captured or routed, with Napoleon also being captured.

TTL Treaty of Vienna would end with four main powers sharing control of the continent: Britain, France, Austria, and Russia. The nations of Spain, Portugal, Sicily and Holland would end up signing a treaty of alliance and protection with Britain that would render their foreign policy as dependant of Britain. Napoleon would be kept in the throne of France, and Murat kept in Naples with strong ties to France. Russia would have some free hands dealing with the Ottoman Empire and would have its conquest of Finland recognized by the other powers.

Austria would receive the Kingdom of Bavaria with the territory of Bavaria in 1789, but the king of Bavaria would receive the Grand Duchy of Wurzburg and also retain the Northern part of his former kingdom. The Kingdom of Luxembourg would be ruled by Charles of Habsburg and Swabia by John of Habsburg, Baden and Wurtemberg were mediatized. Swabia and Luxembourg would serve as barriers if France became hostile again. Also the German States and the North Italian States would become two confederations presided by Austria, but at this time its function was almost solely military. Wouldn't be part of neither confederation the Kingdom of Danzig-Prussia, the Kingdom of Hungary, or the Polish Lands of both Prussia and Austria.

The United Kingdom of Denmark and Scandinavia would be a creation of the Congress. Denmark and Sweden would both relinquish their lands in Germany, Sweden would also recognize the loss of Finland, Norway would then be given to Sweden forming the Kingdom of Scandinavia, but the king of Denmark would become co-ruler and heir of the King of Scandinavia. Also Norway would receive a lot of authonomy from Stockholm.

The Papal States and Switzerland would both become neutral states guaranted by the four powers.

Many other border corrections would also be made.

What you guys think?

 

[amcrmcm]

Cool scenario! I think the Habsburgs would probably prefer a restored Switzerland over a return of the Austrian Netherlands, as would the French prefer Belgium to Romandie. It'd probably be difficult for the Habsburgs to get agreement for leadership over Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Poland, as every other power is going to challenge them on at least some of those points. I also think it's unlikely for Spain especially to wind up so dependent on the British, but could happen I suppose.

Ultimately though, I don't know if they would bother keeping Napoleon around at this point, especially if they managed to capture him. The marriage with Marie-Louise hasn't happened yet, so a big Austrian motivation for keeping him on the throne is not there. Funnily enough, Metternich doesn't become foreign minister without the Wagram disaster, so Austrian policy is probably quite different.

 

[Diego]

Cool scenario!

Thanks!

Ultimately though, I don't know if they would bother keeping Napoleon around at this point, especially if they managed to capture him.

The reasoning behind Napoleon keeping his throne is that it is in the best interest of Austria. They have Napoleon, but they don't have Paris, the only way to force France to change government would be taking Paris, otherwise the French could sue for peace, but Austria would not have the same leverage. Going to Paris would mean calling other allies, and fight for at least a couple of months, losing money and men. In the end Austria would still have less leverage on the table of negotiation than just after Wagram because they are not going to be the sole saviours of Europe anymore and other nations would have more say in the peace negotiations. Also, in my TL even after Napoleon is captured the French are able to rout the Spanish Armies like they did IOTL.

Funnily enough, Metternich doesn't become foreign minister without the Wagram disaster, so Austrian policy is probably quite different.

Metternich eventually would have a role both in the Congress and in the future government of Austria, but Stadion would be the main figure in Vienna and probably the leader of the Austrian government until his retirement or death.

I think the Habsburgs would probably prefer a restored Switzerland over a return of the Austrian Netherlands, as would the French prefer Belgium to Romandie.

My intention was to put two medium sized states on the border with France for military reasons. Do you think that Austria would be willing to throw Piedmont under the bus giving more of its territory to restore Switzerland as a whole? I read somewhere that Metternich wanted to restore Switzerland, but I don't know exactly his motivations.

BTW, the French ITTL entered the Congress knowing that they had only the frontiers of 1789 to bargain, they received the enclaves they conquered since 1789, plus parts of Switzerland, plus the Duchy of Savoy in compensation for Corsica.

I also think it's unlikely for Spain especially to wind up so dependent on the British, but could happen I suppose.

This dependancy status is more like an unequal alliance:

1 - We are free to dock in your ports.
2 - If we go to war you go too.
3 - Don't declare war nor sign treaties without asking us first.
4 - Be a good boy, don't cause trouble to us.

It'd probably be difficult for the Habsburgs to get agreement for leadership over Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Poland, as every other power is going to challenge them on at least some of those points. I also think it's unlikely for Spain especially to wind up so dependent on the British, but could happen I suppose.

Well, at the time Russia is on a bad situation, they are fighting the Ottomans, and even worse they were at war against Sweden during the fifth coalition, from the British and Austrian point of view Russia was on the French side during the war, they also have a weakness in Finland, as the Austrians could use that to bargain in a "If you force me to lose this, you are also going to lose something" type of negotiation.

Britain would probably want Napoleon out of France, and Germany very well divided in millions of principalities, but without this option I thought that they would probably
prefer this pseudo Holy Roman Empire to counter balance both Russia and France as both of them have been very naughty recently.

TTL France is in a weird situation, if Napoleon had died they would be in a stronger position, but with him prisioner they don't have much room to maneuver, the only bargaining tool that Napoleon would have would be "himself", because if he dies or renounce his title France gets a lot of strenght on the negotiation table. Also they don't want neither Napoleon weak enough to be taken down by revolution nor strong enough to go conquering again.

Well, Austria, from the Austrian point of view they are the saviours of Europe, the Confederation of Germany and the Confederation of Italy are basically a revival of the HRE and the only piece of land that they are really getting as a new land is Bavaria, the other lands are basically the territories that they had in 1789 or 1805 and some of them are not even going directly to Austria.

Denmark, Sweden, Spain, and basically any other nation are too weak and busy with their own things to play the game of the Great Powers.

There is also Prussia, and Prussia could suck a field of sugar cane, at least that is what Austria is thinking, they didn't join the war before Napoleon's defeat, in fact they helped the French as Charles would wait and lose a lot of time trying to make the Prussians join the war, and still the Prussians got most of the Duchy of Warsaw back, and also lands from the Swedish and the Saxons.

 

[Socrates]

Can't see Britain or Russia accepting such a powerful Austria.

 

[Disraeli's Ghost]

Very Interesting scenario. I've always thought of Aspern and Wagram as the beginning of the end for Bonaparte - Losing many of his finest soldiers and commanders in two slogging matches.
I would however take issue with France's borders here. Despite having undergone what seems like a second Cannae from the way you describe it, France is still formidable in 1809, at its height in Spain and not yet scraping the barrel in conscripts. I'd imagine they retain Belgium at least here unless Austria and Prussia (who presumably joins the coalition after this) are prepared to invade. It's more likely the Imperial regime collapses and Republic restored, than the French people agreeing to have all their conquests taken away in return for an Emperor who has just lost spectacularly.

An Austria going into the 19th century with high military and diplomatic prestige would be very interesting however. Certainly makes it much harder for Prussia to settle the German question in their favour.

 

[Tarabas]

The scenario is intresting, though I have some questions regarding Italy:
1) IOTL 1810, the Savoys were in Sardinia while the Bourbons were ruling Sicily. In this scenario, does the Savoys regain back their continental holdings but give up Sardinia? So the Bourbons rule Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica? While a "Kingdom of the Isles" is certainly interesting, I fail to see how this happens.
2) What is the nature of the Confederation of Romagna, and why are these territories not given back to the Papal States?
3) Do the Hapsburg-Lorraine rule the Kingdom of Tuscany? What was the fate of the Austria-Este and Bourbon-Parma families?