PC: Bavaria Swapped for the Austrian Netherlands, 1740-1745

[Avrorrange]

Absolutely yes. Max III would have no reason to complain or refute the double match. His lands were lost in the war started by his father‘s tentative to take possession of Austria and Bohemia and replace the Habsburgs as Emperors. Sure France pushes them to do it, but remained a trusted ally during the war and now they were renouncing to their war prize for compensating Bavarian‘s loss

My question isn’t whether Max would want to stay as a client ruler of the French,but whether the French would want a client ruler as opposed to ruling Belgium directly and whether other Europeans other than Britain and and the Netherlands would try to oppose such a move militarily.The French were only allies with Bavaria because of shared interest in fighting the Habsburgs.With the Wittelsbachs in Belgium,the strategic priority of the Habsburgs,Wittelsbachs and the Bourbons would be drastically different.

I always thought that if the exchanges was made,then the Wittelsbachs are effectively left at the mercy of the French by the Habsburgs,who might not oppose the next French move on Belgium.

 

[isabella]

My question isn’t whether Max would want to stay as a client ruler of the French,but whether the French would want a client ruler as opposed to ruling Belgium directly and whether other Europeans other than Britain and and the Netherlands would try to oppose such a move militarily.The French were only allies with Bavaria because of shared interest in fighting the Habsburgs.With the Wittelsbachs in Belgium,the strategic priority of the Habsburgs,Wittelsbachs and the Bourbons would be drastically different.

I always thought that if the exchanges was made,then the Wittelsbachs are effectively left at the mercy of the French by the Habsburgs,who might not oppose the next French move on Belgium.

Louis XV is unlikely to try to annex Wittelsbachs Netherlands... And yes, if France tried to take “Belgium”, Austria will stay outside the conflict BUT France, under almost any King, has no reason for trying to occupy “Belgium“ when a daughter of their King is already in Brussels and the Dauphine of France is the heiress presumptive of “Belgium”

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

If France really wanted, could they not create an arrangement like that with Stanisław Leszczyński where he received the duchy of Lorraine as compensation for losing the war of polish succession with the understanding that after his death it would be escheated into the French Crown.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Then there's the fact that the lifeblood of the Flemish traders, the Scheldt river, had long been closed by the Dutch, who controlled its mouth. The great port of Antwerp withered on the vine, as did most of the customs duties for the provinces.

I'm thinking that if Maxi's backed by France, the Dutch would likely be whistling past the graveyard as far as keeping the Scheldt closed is concerned. The Diplomatic Revolution of OTL was a shock to them, since the Cordon Sanitaire that was the Austrian Netherlands was now a cordon no longer, but rather a liability. It was why they turned to Prussia as their "defender". Maria Theresia's gonna be no use, and the English are frenemies at best.

Speaking of the English, one can only wonder how they'd look on this swap.

Would there be something like the Ostend company? Not sure, the Habsburgs tried about five different times to create an East India Company, andd when England and the Dutch/French were at war with one another in the ARW, the incarnation made a handsome profit. But I could be wrong.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

About the POD you are right, about the new ruler of Bavaria, if Maria Theresia can not rule it of her own, I think is more likely seeing it going to Joseph instead of Francis Stephen. Louis XV can still go out as winner in Netherlands also giving them to the Elector, if he agree to swap under the condition who Max married one of his daughter and Max’s eldest sister (and now heiress presumptive) became the second wife of the widowed Dauphin (putting Netherlands firmly in the French sphere with a pretty good chance to annex it in the next generation)...
The title of Duke of Brabant is unlikely to be used as Isabella and Albert, while independent rulers, had still Spain as overlord so I believe Maximilian will use a new title

Its possible that Maxi MIGHT get away with the one (a marriage to Louis XV's daughters) OR the other. But if Maria Antonia is already taken by the time the dauphin is widowed (especially if Maria Antonia already HAS kid(s) by this point), a younger sister will look like Catherine of Aragon after her mother died.

The other reason for the choice of Maria Josepha of Saxony was personal as much as political.
1) her sister was queen of Naples so it was preserving the pacte de famille between Versailles, Madrid and Naples (which could've splintered due to Louis XV's rejection of the OTL duchess of Savoy)
2) she was a Polish princess and France wanted to AVOID their main ally in the east (this was before the Diplomatic Revolution) becoming a Russian/Austrian puppet (after 1737 they realized Stanislas was a lost causs). Hence why there were talks about marrying Adélaïde to Prince Xaver.
3) her mother and sister's fertility
4) her uncle was the Comte de Saxe, a marshal of France and a personal friend of BOTH Louis XV and La Pompadour AND Marie Leczszynska (who otherwise was NOT thrilled with the idea of this match and her dad had to come talk her around to agreeing to it).
5) France wanted the secret to hard-paste porcelain (Meissen ware) for their own manufactories at Sevres.

To give an idea, there were other German candidates considered for the dauphin OTL (Theresia Natalia of Brunswick, Auguste Elisabeth of Württemberg, Elisabeth of Baden-Baden, Anna Viktoria of Hesse-Rheinfels etc). Elisabeth and Anna Viktoria's causes were pushed by their respective relatives at Versailles (the Orléans and the Condés/princesse de Carignan). Theresia refused to convert and Württemberg couldn't meet the dowry requirements.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

With the Wittelsbachs in Belgium,the strategic priority of the Habsburgs,Wittelsbachs and the Bourbons would be drastically different.

Until the Neuburg branch took over, France was allied with the Palatinate Wittelsbachs on-and-off since AT LEAST the 15th century as a counter to whoever sat on the imperial throne. The French were about whoever can unsettle the empire (the Palatinate, Bavaria, Brandenburg-Prussia). It had very little to do with a valve on Vienna.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

If France really wanted, could they not create an arrangement like that with Stanisław Leszczyński where he received the duchy of Lorraine as compensation for losing the war of polish succession with the understanding that after his death it would be escheated into the French Crown.

No. Because Europe would essentially have a fit. The Southern Netherlandish Estates first and foremost. Then the Dutch, Prussians and English. Austria might not be TOO bothered by it, but I suspect they'd have to get involved because it'd be unlikely that SUCH a war would be CONFINED to the Netherlands

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Louis XV is unlikely to try to annex Wittelsbachs Netherlands... And yes, if France tried to take “Belgium”, Austria will stay outside the conflict BUT France, under almost any King, has no reason for trying to occupy “Belgium“ when a daughter of their King is already in Brussels and the Dauphine of France is the heiress presumptive of “Belgium”

I will point out that Karl Theodor wanted the Southern Netherlands so that he could pass it as an inheritance to his illegitimate son. Which seems to imply that the laws of inheritance (IIRC under Dutch Law of the day - been awhile since I read up - as per (think it was) Grotius, illegitimate children, so long as they were recognized by the father held inheritance rights equal to legitimate issue) were flexible enough to get around the eventuality.

If Maxi keeps the electoral title when he transfers to the Low Countries (Emperor Maximilian had plans to erect an electorate in the Low Countries for Philipp the Handsome by purchasing the Bohemian electoral vote from the perennially cash-strapped Vladislaus of Bohemia) it solves the succession issue. Electorates are male-line only. Which means that IF Max dies with no issue, the electorate of Brabant travels to his cousin, Klemens Franz de Paula (d.1770). OTL Klemens Franz de Paula had four kids (all born post-POD, including two sons, born in May 1754 and June 1755) who would be Maxi's heir. Their mom is the sister-in-law to Karl Theodor and aunt to OTL Maximilian IV.

If Maxi has NO issue and the electorate DOESN'T transfer, like Karl Theodor, Maxi might have the estates register his half-brothet, the Count von Holnstein, as heir.

 

[Hvalrossen]

So maxi would be either king of the Netherlands (the Dutch will find that fun aha) followed by grand duke of Flanders and Brabant

The Grand Duchy of Flanders sound better, cut out Brabany from the name. In my humble opinion.

 

[isabella]

Its possible that Maxi MIGHT get away with the one (a marriage to Louis XV's daughters) OR the other. But if Maria Antonia is already taken by the time the dauphin is widowed (especially if Maria Antonia already HAS kid(s) by this point), a younger sister will look like Catherine of Aragon after her mother died.

The other reason for the choice of Maria Josepha of Saxony was personal as much as political.
1) her sister was queen of Naples so it was preserving the pacte de famille between Versailles, Madrid and Naples (which could've splintered due to Louis XV's rejection of the OTL duchess of Savoy)
2) she was a Polish princess and France wanted to AVOID their main ally in the east (this was before the Diplomatic Revolution) becoming a Russian/Austrian puppet (after 1737 they realized Stanislas was a lost causs). Hence why there were talks about marrying Adélaïde to Prince Xaver.
3) her mother and sister's fertility
4) her uncle was the Comte de Saxe, a marshal of France and a personal friend of BOTH Louis XV and La Pompadour AND Marie Leczszynska (who otherwise was NOT thrilled with the idea of this match and her dad had to come talk her around to agreeing to it).
5) France wanted the secret to hard-paste porcelain (Meissen ware) for their own manufactories at Sevres.

To give an idea, there were other German candidates considered for the dauphin OTL (Theresia Natalia of Brunswick, Auguste Elisabeth of Württemberg, Elisabeth of Baden-Baden, Anna Viktoria of Hesse-Rheinfels etc). Elisabeth and Anna Viktoria's causes were pushed by their respective relatives at Versailles (the Orléans and the Condés/princesse de Carignan). Theresia refused to convert and Württemberg couldn't meet the dowry requirements.

Kellan Max and Antonia are still unmarried as their weddings to their Saxon first cousins had not yet happened and is unlikely that weddings would be arranged after the loss of Bavaria. In any case the Dauphin was widowed before Antonia’s wedding so her OTL husband will most likely marrying her next sister (or another daughter of Louis XV).

If France really wanted, could they not create an arrangement like that with Stanisław Leszczyński where he received the duchy of Lorraine as compensation for losing the war of polish succession with the understanding that after his death it would be escheated into the French Crown.

Not really as in the case of Lorraine, Stanislaw’s only surviving child was Louis XV’s wife so French inheritance of Lorraine was guaranteed.

No. Because Europe would essentially have a fit. The Southern Netherlandish Estates first and foremost. Then the Dutch, Prussians and English. Austria might not be TOO bothered by it, but I suspect they'd have to get involved because it'd be unlikely that SUCH a war would be CONFINED to the Netherlands

Most likely. But is unlikely anyone will be able to much once Max died, if his heir is his French nephew...

I will point out that Karl Theodor wanted the Southern Netherlands so that he could pass it as an inheritance to his illegitimate son. Which seems to imply that the laws of inheritance (IIRC under Dutch Law of the day - been awhile since I read up - as per (think it was) Grotius, illegitimate children, so long as they were recognized by the father held inheritance rights equal to legitimate issue) were flexible enough to get around the eventuality.

If Maxi keeps the electoral title when he transfers to the Low Countries (Emperor Maximilian had plans to erect an electorate in the Low Countries for Philipp the Handsome by purchasing the Bohemian electoral vote from the perennially cash-strapped Vladislaus of Bohemia) it solves the succession issue. Electorates are male-line only. Which means that IF Max dies with no issue, the electorate of Brabant travels to his cousin, Klemens Franz de Paula (d.1770). OTL Klemens Franz de Paula had four kids (all born post-POD, including two sons, born in May 1754 and June 1755) who would be Maxi's heir. Their mom is the sister-in-law to Karl Theodor and aunt to OTL Maximilian IV.

If Maxi has NO issue and the electorate DOESN'T transfer, like Karl Theodor, Maxi might have the estates register his half-brothet, the Count von Holnstein, as heir.

If Max has no issue and no electorate is likely who Maria Antonia and her kids will inherit Southern Netherlands...

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Kellan Max and Antonia are still unmarried as their weddings to their Saxon first cousins had not yet happened and is unlikely that weddings would be arranged after the loss of Bavaria. In any case the Dauphin was widowed before Antonia’s wedding so her OTL husband will most likely marrying her next sister (or another daughter of Louis XV).

If our POD is, as suggested the Battle of Pfaffenhofen (April 1745), the dauphin's first wife is still alive and their marriage is less than two months old. Their only child was born in July 1747 (a MONTH after Maria Antonia/Friedrich Christian's marriage took place on 20 June 1747; and a MONTH before Max married Maria Anna (9 August 1747)). To argue that Maria Antonia will remain single for the eventuality of becoming dauphine when any number of factors from Maria Teresa having a different pregnancy due in 1746 or 1748 rather than 1747 to her surviving the childbirth...seems to imply that someone had a crystal ball in 1745.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Not really as Netherlands had NEVER followed Salic law so they will be inherited by Max III’s eldest sister (OTL Electress of Saxony, ATL most likely Dauphine of France) and not by his cousin of Palatinate ... Still the succession would be much easier...

Assuming that Max III does not have any children atl, the inheritance of his domain could go both ways. His sister might inherit, but Max's Palatine cousin might alos inherit. Who inherit will probably depend a bit on contemporary politics, and personal relation.

I suspect that the Bavarians wouldn’t rise up in peace time, MT’s reforms would in general benefit the Bavarians, bringing wealth into the duchy this would likely make them treasure MT. Bavarian surplus population could also settled the Austrian military frontier just as the Austrian subjects in Swabia did. Economic the greater integration of the Swabian and Franconian Imperial Circles[1] with the Austrian-Bavarian economy would also boost Austria and Bavaria. It’s also likely that Austria will push for the removal of internal trade barrier inside the two imperial circles. The long reign of MT means that two generation will grow up under her rule. Under her rule Bavaria is unlikely to see new invasions, this will pretty much give Bavaria it’s longest period without foreign armies on their ground since before the 30YW. Austria will also be in a much stronger position in the Seven Year War. Of course a major question will be what happens to the imperial crown?

[1] both was relative well integrated with the Austrian economy, but the position Bavaria between them was something of a barrier.

If Maria Theresa's rule goes as you described it seems like she or atleast Austrian rule will get somewhat popular in Bavaria. Perhaps she might be favored among the Bavarian elite compared to Wittelsbach revanchist sentiment, which might be present to some degree.

How signifcant might Bavarian migration become?

 

[Hvalrossen]

My question isn’t whether Max would want to stay as a client ruler of the French,but whether the French would want a client ruler as opposed to ruling Belgium directly and whether other Europeans other than Britain and and the Netherlands would try to oppose such a move militarily.The French were only allies with Bavaria because of shared interest in fighting the Habsburgs.With the Wittelsbachs in Belgium,the strategic priority of the Habsburgs,Wittelsbachs and the Bourbons would be drastically different.

I always thought that if the exchanges was made,then the Wittelsbachs are effectively left at the mercy of the French by the Habsburgs,who might not oppose the next French move on Belgium.

Franco-Wittelsbach Netherlands might start good or bad, they might also change for the better or worse. It seems likely that if relations between the two worsen the the Wittelsbach Netherlands will look somewhere else for support. Why would not Britain be supportive of a Wittelsbach Netherlands that is unfriendly with France?

Would there be something like the Ostend company? Not sure, the Habsburgs tried about five different times to create an East India Company, andd when England and the Dutch/French were at war with one another in the ARW, the incarnation made a handsome profit. But I could be wrong.

Most likely there will be some attempt on colonial ventures.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Following the Wittelsbach, numerous civil servants might accompany them to the now Wittelsbach Netherlands. Therefore the Wittelsbach Netherlands might recieve a bavarocracy for the first decades, similar to Greece after Otto was chosen to be king.

Might the areas which was Franco centric during Belgian rule, become Flemish/Dutch centric or might even High German dominate the civil service?

 

[isabella]

If our POD is, as suggested the Battle of Pfaffenhofen (April 1745), the dauphin's first wife is still alive and their marriage is less than two months old. Their only child was born in July 1747 (a MONTH after Maria Antonia/Friedrich Christian's marriage took place on 20 June 1747; and a MONTH before Max married Maria Anna (9 August 1747)). To argue that Maria Antonia will remain single for the eventuality of becoming dauphine when any number of factors from Maria Teresa having a different pregnancy due in 1746 or 1748 rather than 1747 to her surviving the childbirth...seems to imply that someone had a crystal ball in 1745.

I think you have the wrong year for the death of Dauphine Marie Therese of Spain as she died in July 1746 not 1747 and Dauphin Louis remarried to Maria Josepha of Saxony in January of 1747 so BEFORE any of the OTL Saxon/Bavarian weddings, who likely were not yet agreed at the time of the POD...

 

[Jürgen]

Linguistically, could this lead to the consolidation of the Bavarian language, if communication and migration between Austria and Bavaria increases relative to that between Bavaria and the rest of Germany, it makes it that little bit more likely that Bavarian speakers slightly widen and further lean into the difference between Bavarian and Standard German. If Napoleon is butterflied away, it could have major consequences in an alt German nationalism.

Unlikely, German is already heavy influenced by (Austro-)Bavarian (specific the dialect of a Vienna), Bavaria becoming part of Austria will do little to change that or make Bavarian more likely to divert.

 

[Jürgen]

If Maria Theresa's rule goes as you described it seems like she or atleast Austrian rule will get somewhat popular in Bavaria. Perhaps she might be favored among the Bavarian elite compared to Wittelsbach revanchist sentiment, which might be present to some degree.

I think Bavaria will remember her fondly, but they won’t know what they gets beforehand, so they will likely warm up to her under her rule.

How signifcant might Bavarian migration become?

I don’t know but it would likely result in a significant increase of the German population of Banat, Slavonian and Croatian military frontier. In the the first it may push them into being plurality or small majority. While in the the two latter it would simply increase a small minority to a slightly larger one.

 

[Jürgen]

Following the Wittelsbach, numerous civil servants might accompany them to the now Wittelsbach Netherlands. Therefore the Wittelsbach Netherlands might recieve a bavarocracy for the first decades, similar to Greece after Otto was chosen to be king.

Might the areas which was Franco centric during Belgian rule, become Flemish/Dutch centric or might even High German dominate the civil service?

Maybe the administrative language of the Spanish and Austrian Netherlands was Picard a French dialect. It’s not impossible to see a shift to German, if enough people follow the exodus, the elite of Brussel may even end up German speaking,

 

[Jürgen]

I think you have the wrong year for the death of Dauphine Marie Therese of Spain as she died in July 1746 not 1747 and Dauphin Louis remarried to Maria Josepha of Saxony in January of 1747 so BEFORE any of the OTL Saxon/Bavarian weddings, who likely were not yet agreed at the time of the POD...

Honestly it would be more interesting to see Saxony as the legitimate successor to the Wittelsbach Netherlands after Max dies.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I think you have the wrong year for the death of Dauphine Marie Therese of Spain as she died in July 1746 not 1747 and Dauphin Louis remarried to Maria Josepha of Saxony in January of 1747 so BEFORE any of the OTL Saxon/Bavarian weddings, who likely were not yet agreed at the time of the POD...

My bad. But the argument still stands that with a marriage less than two months old no one's going to be looking at a French match for Maria Antonia at the time. Max? Sure. He gets Madame Henriette or Madame Adélaïde (Louis was attached to Henriette, and there's thought that had she lived, Madame de Pompadour would never have come to assert the level of influence - or rather, that she would've been "balanced out" by Henriette - she did.