Paul Martin wins 1990 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election

Canadian Progressive

What it says on the tin. let's say for whatever reason, Jean Chrétien decides not to run for the Liberal leadership in 1990 and stays retired. This obviously would have allowed then political newcomer Paul Martin to win the leadership instead. How would this affect the 1993 federal election? Would the Liberals under Martin do better or worse compared to OTL? Also, how would Martin's premiership differ compared to Chrétien's?

What do you think?
 
True Grit

True Grit

Not entirely sure that Martin would be the front runner in a Chretien-less scenario, as I think this is a scenario where a bigger name - like David Peterson - is more likely to run. But Martin winning is hardly implausible.

My gut reaction is that he does a little bit worse overall than Chretien, slight gains in Quebec (where he lacks the baggage of Meech) and the west (which he aggressively targeted a decade later IOTL, and where polls showed the Liberals to be fairly competitive) being offset by losses in Ontario and the Atlantic. I could see the PCs hanging on to second here, but it could go either way.
 

Canadian Progressive

True Grit said:
Not entirely sure that Martin would be the front runner in a Chretien-less scenario, as I think this is a scenario where a bigger name - like David Peterson - is more likely to run. But Martin winning is hardly implausible.

My gut reaction is that he does a little bit worse overall than Chretien, slight gains in Quebec (where he lacks the baggage of Meech) and the west (which he aggressively targeted a decade later IOTL, and where polls showed the Liberals to be fairly competitive) being offset by losses in Ontario and the Atlantic. I could see the PCs hanging on to second here, but it could go either way.
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I suppose a minor butterfly caused by this POD would be that Charest beats Campbell in the PC leadership? Charest is much closer in ideology to Martin, I think.
 
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