P&S-No Rest for the Wicked

Great start!

Africa may have some islands of stability in the middle of chaotic seas, but considering the famines that historically took place in 1984-85 I don't think that the continent has a good future at all! Western help is a thing of the past forever now and I can therefore easily see huge areas of Africa going back to the Dark Ages and utter barbarism.
 
Great start!

Africa may have some islands of stability in the middle of chaotic seas, but considering the famines that historically took place in 1984-85 I don't think that the continent has a good future at all! Western help is a thing of the past forever now and I can therefore easily see huge areas of Africa going back to the Dark Ages and utter barbarism.

Im still running the numbers, but Africa will have 80 to 100 million people at best by 2000.
 
Im still running the numbers, but Africa will have 80 to 100 million people at best by 2000.

This is very low but somewhat plausible for sub-saharian Africa and will probably have very severe implications in the long run. By this I mean that any country which will have recovered to some extent by 2000 and I feel that this will be the case of some European nations, could very well go an expansionist spree either to control valuable trade routes or valuable resources.

The war won't change anything to the fact that the Cape of Good Hope still has a huge strategic value, that the petroleum reserves of Gabon and Nigeria will still be in the ground and so on.

If India really ends up as a superpower by default post war (I still think that it would be very difficult though). I can honestly see them exporting their population surpluses to East Africa in order to control the sealanes and the mineral resources of the area. The process would be long and slow, but they have the population base to make something like this work and work big. Heck that's what I would do if I were them, one man's loss is another man's gain as the saying says.

South Americans nations might do the same, likely to control strategic points.

If something like this does happens, Africa has been thrown back two centuries in the past ...
 
Monrovia and Abijan ate Soviet ICBMs.

Burkina Faso was just horrid luck.

80 to 100 million might be to few, thats true. Some parts of the continent will be worse off then others. IE, Libya will have probably most of its OTL population...
Egypt will have about 3% of its OTL population

Also, currently working on a finalized target list. And if their is any area of Africa people want to see a one shot vignette of, feel free to request it. Or in general, if their is stuff people want to know about, let me know. I have ideas for all of Africa, and it will take requests to churn them all out.
 
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Great start!

Africa may have some islands of stability in the middle of chaotic seas, but considering the famines that historically took place in 1984-85 I don't think that the continent has a good future at all! Western help is a thing of the past forever now and I can therefore easily see huge areas of Africa going back to the Dark Ages and utter barbarism.

Except this time with Ak-47's.

Im still running the numbers, but Africa will have 80 to 100 million people at best by 2000.

Even if the population was 250 million that would be 50% of what it was in 1980 :eek:


I would how long before P&Sverse hits 7 billion people?
 
I take it then that the Aswan Dam was nuked?:eek:
Yes, yes it was.

Even if the population was 250 million that would be 50% of what it was in 1980 :eek:


I would how long before P&Sverse hits 7 billion people?
Hmm, damn. Okay, I'll probably settle on 200 million or so, with the largest concentrations being North Africa, part of West Africa, Tanzania/Kenya, Ethiopia...(less so)
 
Subscribed, Agentdark!:)
Monrovia and Abijan ate Soviet ICBMs.

Burkina Faso was just horrid luck.

80 to 100 million might be to few, thats true. Some parts of the continent will be worse off then others. IE, Libya will have probably most of its OTL population...
Ghaddaffi will mean more trouble for a continent that will be suffering a lot from war, famine and diseases.:(
Egypt will have about 3% of its OTL population
The senior surviving authorities in Egypt, will be mid-level bureaucrats and military officers in eight or nine governorates. the largest surviving city will be Port Said (assuming the Suez Canal was not targeted).
The destruction of the Aswan Dam would have been horrendous loss of life.
Also, currently working on a finalized target list. And if their is any area of Africa people want to see a one shot vignette of, feel free to request it. Or in general, if their is stuff people want to know about, let me know. I have ideas for all of Africa, and it will take requests to churn them all out.
Can you write a post about Cape Verde, please?:)

I would how long before P&Sverse hits 7 billion people?
Considering the wars and epidemics that would also affect some less nuked areas, I fear that it will take alt least sometime during the first half of the XXI century to reach that number.:(
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
Subscribed, Agentdark!:)
Ghaddaffi will mean more trouble for a continent that will be suffering a lot from war, famine and diseases.:(

The Be-medalled One bit the dust already. ;)

No Rest for the Wicked
Act I, Scene 1-

  • Enter the Unprepared Man
The Revolutionary Guide and Brother to All Libyans is silent for once.
~SNIP~
The man says nothing
The Prime Minister steps forward
“Sir?”
The man still says nothing
“Get a Doctor”
The Prime Minister rules Libya now, this was certain unexpected



Falkenburg
 
Fantastic TL

Having following the other P&S threads (and these are impressive too!), this one really fascinates - I can't think of anywhere else I've read of a WW3 scenario following Africa.
This really would be hell on earth - I think I'd sooner stand in Berlin in a pair of shorts, factor 1000000 sun cream and an umbrella than hang around Africa in this TL!
I'd be interested to see how the few surviving civilian Europeans in Africa would fair (charity workers, medics, oil workers in Libya etc.)...
 
Having following the other P&S threads (and these are impressive too!), this one really fascinates - I can't think of anywhere else I've read of a WW3 scenario following Africa.
This really would be hell on earth - I think I'd sooner stand in Berlin in a pair of shorts, factor 1000000 sun cream and an umbrella than hang around Africa in this TL!
I'd be interested to see how the few surviving civilian Europeans in Africa would fair (charity workers, medics, oil workers in Libya etc.)...


a half-dozen stoned expats in a hotel lobby, where the humor is so dark that it absorbs light from its surroundings when even pondered
 
The Aswan dam was probably targeted by Israel one of the last acts of the Israeli Air Force before the soviets nukes came.Lybia is unlikely to make it in the long term refugees and no oil revenue anymore means their screwed.
 
Except this time with Ak-47's.
AKM's and Type 56's. ;)

As to Lybia, Tanzania, and Ghana: A few thoughts.
First off it depends on when you’re talking about. As we’re dealing with nuclear apocalypse and the Soviet’s are mentioned, I’m guessing the mid/late 80’s. You’re right, the songs don’t match, but meh.

Libya…
A couple things going on that might be relevant: the Chadian-Libyan War was probably only just winding down (’78 to ’87) wherein Libya got it’s conventional butt kicked by the Chadians.
Brief snippet from Wiki:

“At the opening of 1987, the last year of the war, the Libyan expeditionary force was still impressive, comprising 8,000 troops, 300 tanks, many multiple rocket launchers (rocket artillery) and regular artillery pieces, Mi-24 helicopters and sixty combat aircraft. These forces did not have a unified command, but were divided into an Operational Group South, active in the Tibesti with 2,500 men, and an Operational Group East, centered in Faya-Largeau.[16]
Apparently formidable, the Libyan military disposition in Chad was marred by serious flaws. The Libyans were prepared for a war in which they would provide ground and air support to their Chadian allies, act as assault infantry, and provide reconnaissance. By 1987, however, Muammar Gaddafi had lost his allies, exposing Libya's inadequate knowledge of the area. Libyan garrisons came to resemble isolated and vulnerable islands in the Chadian Sahara. Also important was the low morale among the troops, who were fighting in a foreign country, and the structural disorganization of the Libyan army, which was in part induced by Gaddafi's fear of a military coup against him. This fear led him to avoid the professionalization of the armed forces.
The Libyans had also to deal with the greatly strengthened Chadian National Armed Forces (FANT), which was composed of 10,000 highly motivated troops, led by experienced and able commanders, such as Idriss Déby, Hassan Djamous and President Hissène Habré himself. And while FANT previously had no air power, limited mobility and few anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, by 1987 it could count on the French Air Force to keep Libyan aircraft grounded and, more importantly, to provide 400 highly mobile Toyota pickups equipped with MILAN anti-tank guided missiles. It is these trucks that gave the name "Toyota War" to this last phase of the Chadian-Libyan conflict. “


So the Chad/Libyan border area is going to be seriously f—ed up.
Despite this, Libya is still going to have some serious teeth. They’ve just come out of a major buying spree in the Soviet Union. And despite their having gotten raped up and down the street by the Chadians, they still are going to be the toughest kid on the block: largely because the Chadian’s biggest donor of support (France in the form of air support and the US to a lesser extent for Stinger missiles) are now supposedly gone.
One thing to take into account is that Libya would most likely have several tens of tons of mustard gas and the ability to make more (not sure on the exact date they obtained it).

Being almost entirely reliant on oil and real cozy with the Soviets, they really didn’t have any need to invest into weapons production (other than some far-fetched specialty stuff, like nukes and chemical weapons). Similarly, given how cheaply the Soviet were throwing equipment at anyone even hinting at being Socialist: there would have been no economic reason.
Therefore, they’ll have butt loads of Zil 131’s, A few of the “newer” Urals, plenty of T-55’s, SAM sites, and other stuff. Actually…
This list is pretty representative of what Gaddafi would have had back then (only then, it would have been relatively state-of-the-art).
So, if they scrambled, they could probably get some sort of machining going to keep their present fleet of equipment running. Hell, Iran’s been running unsupported F-14’s for close to 30 years. But it would rely a LOT on cannibalization…

Small arms: they could probably get something going for making AK’s, and possibly RPG’s, but the biggest problem they would run into would be munitions. They don’t really have the necessary chemical resources to make explosives, gunpowder, etc in any sort of meaningful quantities.
Granted, they have tons and tons stockpiled… but it would be a non-renewable stockpile.

Tanzania.
Tanzania was really tight with China. That would mean not AK’s, but the Chinese copy: the Type 56 (you can tell a Type 56 from an AKM by the front sights hood. AKM is open on top, '56 is a closed ring). Generally considered to be inferior to Russian or Romanian versions of the AK, but (now, anyway; not so back then) by far the most common. Back in the day, they were still outnumbered by Soviet versions. You can tell an AK-47 from an AKM by the dust cover ribbing: AKM has it (for strength in the thinner metal), AK-47 is smooth.
But I’m getting ahead of myself.

Julius Nyerere might still be in power (was up until ’85).
He was actually very progressive: implementing Socialist policies for the purpose of bringing Tanzania up out of relatively abject poverty, then fully intended to turn it over to the Free Market/Democracy when he stepped down in ’85. Problem is, it didn’t work all that well and by the mid ‘80’s, they were an international welfare case.
In the mid-80’s, they’re going to be very cautious about Uganda (Soviet backed/equipped). They just wrapped up a victorious war with them in ’79, but the Ugandan’s broke down into an internal bush/civil war (’81 to ’86).
As to their military: as mentioned, it was heavily reliant on China. So, you’re talking Type 59’s, Type 62’s (not T-62’s…), F-5/6/7’s… You get the idea.
This comment is rather accurate:

“One informed observer previously described the current Tanzanian Army as being a force of about 15 lightly armed infantry battalions mounted in transport that sometimes works.”

That also means that they’re going to have a tougher time finding replacement parts. That leads us to their industry. Part of their aid deal from China included large numbers of Chinese to work in industrial jobs there. I’m guessing there is no China for them to go home to, so you’re going to have a large Chinese minority stuck there.

Unfortunately, you’re stuck with a great many of the same problems as Libya: they simply don’t have any industry geared towards military production. They do (and did) have a strong mining sector, but all their equipment was foreign purchased. On the other hand, that’s also going to imply a decent basic mechanical base, and they could probably begin fabbing replacement parts for their current fleet fairly quickly. But there is no way they’re building any new vehicles any time soon.
Same issues with arms and munitions. While they do have a bit of a chemicals industry (fertilizer), they would be better than Libya when it comes to manufacturing propellant and explosives, but it’ll take some industrial know-how which is sadly lacking. Similarly, they’ll have massive stockpiles, but it’ll be generally unreplenishable.
Actually, without the Soviets around to back them, they’d probably try to kick Uganda around some more: attempting armory raids to hoard all the munitions they could…
Really, the only thing they can make are simple, hand-made things with local supplies: clothing, shoes, cigarettes, etc. Then again, with the rest of the world f—ed up, that could be a valuable sector to have…


Ghana.
Jerry Rawlings. Came to power in a coup in ’81, and stayed there for a looooong time. Banning political parties and suspending the constitution, the county actually in a bad way around the time of your story with a lot of people leaving.
Industrially, they had a pretty good foundation with aluminum processing, vehicle assembly plants, cement manufacturing… but it was all dated from the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s. It started going downhill in the mid 70’s due to idiocy on the part of the govt (who controlled most of it), and never really recovered until the 90’s.
So, if they can get their political act together in light of the apocalypse, they’re actually not too bad. Principally, in the vehicle bit.
The military is largely going to be equipped with NATO (UK) stuff, FN-FAL/L-1A1 rifles, Land Rovers, Daimler and Alvis Armored Cars, etc. Given the guy in charge is/was and ex-military man, that is one area they would be relatively competent in.
Replacement parts will be tough to come by (as with the others) but they’re also the best set-up to breath some life back into their potential. Sorry I can’t tell you what companies the assembly plants were for, as pretty much everything shut down over 30 years ago, and therefore isn’t/wasn’t really relevant to what I did.

As to your mercs:
Most likely they wouldn’t have been in a Chevy pickup. A pickup, yes. But not a Chevy. Traveling in that area (west Africa), they would have most likely been in either Land Rover Series trucks (standard UN vehicle at the time, with Toyota's just coming in), or Toyota Pickups (Land Cruisers if they had money, Hilux’s if not).

See that bit of text above the wheel? Says "Land Cruiser".
Toyota%20wars6.jpg


There were a ton of the 70 series pouring into Africa at this time, but the older 40 series would still be (by far) the most common version.

Other vehicles they might have been using would be the Mercedes “L” series. Look them up. If you’ve ever seen a pic of an old truck in Africa with the big Mercedes symbol on the front, it was most likely an L series.
mercedes-overload.jpg


In a lot of NATO/Euro backed powers, you would have also seen plenty of the ubiquitous M35 trucks.

Weapons, they would most likely have either FN-FAL’s, or AKM’s (preferably the Romania version, as they were considered the highest quality). M-16’s weren’t really used outside the US at that point, and the 5.56 round would have been rare. It was still all 7.62X51 or 7.62X39 everywhere outside the US and Europe was still in the process of making the changeover.
As to the mercs themselves, I’d be interested in who they were working for. 9 times out of 10, it would have been a South African company. When Rhodesia fell, there was a huge number of highly experienced combat vets who went south: to South Africa. There, a large number of them went into the service, many with the infamous 32nd Battalion. With the war in Namibia/Angola winding down, a ton of the Rhodesians didn’t have anywhere to go/anything to fight for. They felt betrayed by politics in their own country, and fighting the bush war in South Africa saw Namibia go independent anyway (it had been administered as part of South Africa up until ’89). So, they’d spent their entire lives fighting in two major wars: only to be betrayed in the end by politics in both cases (despite winning militarily). As such, you have bush wars flaring up all over Africa through the 80’s and 90’s (job opportunities)… Tens of thousands of VERY capable and experienced ex-soldiers (supply of services)… Is it any wonder people think South Africa when the think mercenaries / mercenary companies in Africa?
Anyway, just some thoughts. ;)
 
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