Ottoman Empire in Central Powers Victory WW1

[Tordenskjold]

I'm looking for input, advice and timelines on what happens internally within the Ottoman Empire in a Central Powers victory.

For my purposes the exact nature of how the central powers win isn't that important. The situation should be somewhat comparable to the one of the allied powers in 1918 - vicotry, but not necessarily an easy one.

I'm thinking especially in terms of:
- Could the Ottomans help German efforts in Africa with a land connection to the continent through Egypt(I'm assuming Egyptian independence/Ottoman alliance as part of a peace deal)?

- Can the empire hold together, for how long, and could it remain in its pre-war form for a considerable amount of time?

- What would oil mean for the economy (probably a lot)?

 

[Gog (♀)]

When the war is won is the most important btw

I'm looking for input, advice and timelines on what happens internally within the Ottoman Empire in a Central Powers victory.

For my purposes the exact nature of how the central powers win isn't that important. The situation should be somewhat comparable to the one of the allied powers in 1918 - vicotry, but not necessarily an easy one.

I'm thinking especially in terms of:
- Could the Ottomans help German efforts in Africa with a land connection to the continent through Egypt(I'm assuming Egyptian independence/Ottoman alliance as part of a peace deal)?

- Can the empire hold together, for how long, and could it remain in its pre-war form for a considerable amount of time?

- What would oil mean for the economy (probably a lot)?

1 Germans can't keep any land in Africa except MAYBE Tanzania and that's a big maybe

2 If it reformed maybe but probably not

3. Oil wouldn't be a factor til the 40's at least

 

[Germaniac]

It really depends on when the war ends, if late I find it unlikely the Ottomans get back anything the Brits have already taken.

 

[Tordenskjold]

Ok. Let's say that for whatever reason, bad stategic decisions, dumb luck or bad moral, the offensive at Verdun break the allied lines, German command folllows it up well. Pétain is disgraced and replaced by some hopeless idiot. The allies launch their own version of Operation Michael, lose badly. The Russian revolution comes early, perhaps the public realize how bad things are going, freeing soldiers from the east front and making the situation hopeless for the allies. German victory is acknowledged in early 1917.

With such a victory in mind, how do the Ottomans fare through the post-war years, and how are Ottoman-German relations affected?

 

[SvoHljott]

When the war is won is the most important btw



1 Germans can't keep any land in Africa except MAYBE Tanzania and that's a big maybe

2 If it reformed maybe but probably not

3. Oil wouldn't be a factor til the 40's at least

In the event of a Central Powers victory as the OP asked, why is it difficult to assume Germany would gain some French colonies in Africa, and why is it a 'maybe' for them to hold Tanzania (and what about Namibia and Kamerun, their other African colonies?)

I don't see the difficulty.

 

[usertron2020]

In the event of a Central Powers victory as the OP asked, why is it difficult to assume Germany would gain some French colonies in Africa, and why is it a 'maybe' for them to hold Tanzania (and what about Namibia and Kamerun, their other African colonies?)

I don't see the difficulty.

Not an expert. But wouldn't Ataturk's victory at the Dardenelles set him up for political triumph post-war anyway?

I would think that you would need a VERY early POD, with Germany's 1914 offensive resulting in an early Allied collapse due to incompetence, incredible luck for the Central Powers, and the Ottomans jumping in almost from Day One. Do that, and the Ottomans don't suffer the long tide of defeat suffered OTL. IDK about an independent Egypt though, as anti-Ottoman feeling were (IIRC) very strong among the Arab populations at the time. Great enough for them to side with Christian armies against Turkish muslims.

What could the Ottomans expect to get for early entry into the Central Powers, with a Schlieffen Plan that works on schedule? France and Russia are knocked out of the war quickly, and the Turks are free to...Oh God.

Armenia

 

[Tom_B]

Ok. Let's say that for whatever reason, bad stategic decisions, dumb luck or bad moral, the offensive at Verdun break the allied lines, German command folllows it up well. Pétain is disgraced and replaced by some hopeless idiot. The allies launch their own version of Operation Michael, lose badly. The Russian revolution comes early, perhaps the public realize how bad things are going, freeing soldiers from the east front and making the situation hopeless for the allies. German victory is acknowledged in early 1917.

With such a victory in mind, how do the Ottomans fare through the post-war years, and how are Ottoman-German relations affected?

Verdun was not intended to rupture allied lines but to put the French Army into a position where it found be forced to attack at a sharp disadvantage.

There was a recent thread about Africa in a CP victory. I think a review of that discussion would be very helpful for you.

The whole bit about Egypt is a total nonstarter though. France and Russia may be defeated but the UK is NOT. In fact in a CP victory TL it would make sure it retains control of Egypt (and Ireland and India) To quote Bane if something like the 1919 Revolution was attempted it would be very painful

"for you" (the Egyptians)

 

[EMT]

Not an expert. But wouldn't Ataturk's victory at the Dardenelles set him up for political triumph post-war anyway?

I would think that you would need a VERY early POD, with Germany's 1914 offensive resulting in an early Allied collapse due to incompetence, incredible luck for the Central Powers, and the Ottomans jumping in almost from Day One. Do that, and the Ottomans don't suffer the long tide of defeat suffered OTL. IDK about an independent Egypt though, as anti-Ottoman feeling were (IIRC) very strong among the Arab populations at the time. Great enough for them to side with Christian armies against Turkish muslims.

What could the Ottomans expect to get for early entry into the Central Powers, with a Schlieffen Plan that works on schedule? France and Russia are knocked out of the war quickly, and the Turks are free to...Oh God.

Armenia

That isn't happening unless the Ottomans fall flat on their face trying to invade the Caucasus and are, well, being crushed. If they're winning, Armenian insurrection is likely to remain at a minimum. If the Ottomans can also snag Russian Armenia while throwing the Armenians a few bones towards autonomy, then chances are Armenia's both a) not suffering a genocide and b) relatively loyal to the Empire. It took the Ottomans being on their last legs for Eastern Anatolia to turn into what it did historically.

 

[zosimus]

That isn't happening unless the Ottomans fall flat on their face trying to invade the Caucasus and are, well, being crushed. If they're winning, Armenian insurrection is likely to remain at a minimum. If the Ottomans can also snag Russian Armenia while throwing the Armenians a few bones towards autonomy, then chances are Armenia's both a) not suffering a genocide and b) relatively loyal to the Empire. It took the Ottomans being on their last legs for Eastern Anatolia to turn into what it did historically.

Sorry but I have to disagree with your last statement. Look up "Red Sunday", the order to deport Armenian intellectuals on 24 April 1915. The 100th anniversary just occurred. This was still early in the war, one day *before* the Allies landed at Gallipoli. Then look at the Tehcir Law, passed just a month later. It started the mass deportations of Armenians in Eastern Turkey. As much as it is now painful to realize, it seems the leaders of the Ottoman Empire used the war as pretext to take care of their "Armenian Question" once and for all. The later collapse of the empire was a completely separate phenomenon.

 

[usertron2020]

Thank you

Sorry but I have to disagree with your last statement. Look up "Red Sunday", the order to deport Armenian intellectuals on 24 April 1915. The 100th anniversary just occurred. This was still early in the war, one day *before* the Allies landed at Gallipoli. Then look at the Tehcir Law, passed just a month later. It started the mass deportations of Armenians in Eastern Turkey. As much as it is now painful to realize, it seems the leaders of the Ottoman Empire used the war as pretext to take care of their "Armenian Question" once and for all. The later collapse of the empire was a completely separate phenomenon.

Which was my very point, though you have put it with vastly greater factual input than I could have. Why wouldn't in victory, the Ottomans be encouraged to take matters even worse than OTL? Consider: When the Bolsheviks entered Armenia, they were greeted as liberators, the Armenian Church did not suffer nearly as badly as the Russian Orthodox Church did (to say nothing of all the other faiths), and IIRC was one of the more quiescent republics thru the history of the USSR. (1)

1) If I'm wrong on any of this, please sing out.