Oil Discovered in Mesopotamia in 1906 or earlier - Formerly The Turkish Dreadnoughts Were Delivered

[NOMISYRRUC]

I'm having a crash course on the decline of the Ottoman Empire here. It seems that they had a false dawn with the First Constitutional Era of 1876-78. However, the Ottoman bankruptcy of 1875 and the subsequent formation of the Ottoman Public Debt Administration is also making me wary of Europeans bearing loans after the Mesopotamian oil was discovered.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

An Entente Ottoman Empire comes through WWI unscathed and territorially intact. Coffers swelled by allied 'inducements', they expand into the Caucasus on the back of the Russian Civil War as part of their unsuccessful attempt to restore the Tsar to the throne. Labelled as a 'bulwark of Conservatism' by the Tory government, when the Bolsheviks attempt to expand into Transcaspia, it is Ottoman troops that repel the Soviets.

Something like that?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

An Entente Ottoman Empire comes through WWI unscathed and territorially intact. Coffers swelled by allied 'inducements', they expand into the Caucasus on the back of the Russian Civil War as part of their unsuccessful attempt to restore the Tsar to the throne. Labelled as a 'bulwark of Conservatism' by the Tory government, when the Bolsheviks attempt to expand into Transcaspia, it is Ottoman troops that repel the Soviets.

Something like that?

Interesting, but its a long way from how I thought the thread would evolve when I wrote the OP. I envisaged the Ottoman Navy dominating the Aegean and Back Seas for the duration of the war and making occasional forays into the Mediterranean. I thought that there was a less than 50% possibility that Italy would come into the war on the side of the Central Powers with Italy having to give the Dodecanese Islands back to Turkey, but being promised Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Malta, Tunisia and some territory in East Africa if the Central Powers won.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

An Entente Ottoman Empire comes through WWI unscathed and territorially intact. Coffers swelled by allied 'inducements', they expand into the Caucasus on the back of the Russian Civil War as part of their unsuccessful attempt to restore the Tsar to the throne. Labelled as a 'bulwark of Conservatism' by the Tory government, when the Bolsheviks attempt to expand into Transcaspia, it is Ottoman troops that repel the Soviets.

Something like that?

A long time ago my POD for the Ottoman Empire was the Greek War of Independence failing. That would give them one less enemy to fight in the Balkan Wars and by adding the OTL Greek and Ottoman Navies together I produced a force strong enough to limit the losses in the war with Italy to Libya.

That was long before I came to this site and was limited by butterflies, ASBs, having to provide plausible causes for the effects instead of saying, "It just happened that way" and the 1900 Barrier. Since discovering those restrictions I just said that the Ottomans converted just enough Greeks to Islam or were fully Turkified to defeat the independence movement.

The other idea I had, which could be without the above or in combination with it was for the Turks to "Do a Meji" between 1878 and 1908, which included the creation of an armaments industry capable of building battleships and submarines without foreign assistance. They used their new navy to "Do a Tushima" on the Italians in 1911 while their army convincingly defeated the Empire's enemies in the Balkan Wars.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Following on from my reply in Post 104 something that would push the pendulum even further into the pro-Entente camp would be that the British Government trumps the German Government by offering the Turks the pre=dreadnoughs Swiftsure and Triumph plus 4 destroyers at a better price than the Germans offered their ships.

These ships were purchased while building from Chile in the Russo-Japanese war to stop the Russians buying them. A Lord Nelson class battleship and Minotaur class armoured cruiser were deleted from that year's building programme as a consequence. The Royal Navy didn't know what to do with them because they were second-class battleships by their standards and at the start of the Great War, one of them was in reserve at Hong Kong and the second was flagship of the East Indies Station.

My understanding is that the Admiralty would not sell ships commissioned & currently on the active list - even if they were white elephants like Swiftsure & Triumph that were originally built for another nation. At the time they refused to sell these to the Ottomans but offered really outdated vessels of the Royal Sovereign class - open barbettes, anyone? They would not even consider selling ships under construction, although were quite happy for British yards to build ships commissioned by foreign powers (although they did have a habit of ending up commissioned into the RN). Probable reason was that they had to fight the Liberal governments of 1894-95 and 1906 onwards for the naval estimates, so selling current ships could lead Lloyd George & Churchill (in his Radical days) pointing out that the RN didn't really need all that money after all.

So you would need another POD in the Admiralty to be prepared to let go currently commissioned ships. Unlikely IMHO. I think if you are looking to Britain then a better chance of having the orders in earlier, no delays in payment, so they are completed by June 1914 at the latest.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

My understanding is that the Admiralty would not sell ships commissioned & currently on the active list - even if they were white elephants like Swiftsure & Triumph that were originally built for another nation. At the time they refused to sell these to the Ottomans but offered really outdated vessels of the Royal Sovereign class - open barbettes, anyone? They would not even consider selling ships under construction, although were quite happy for British yards to build ships commissioned by foreign powers (although they did have a habit of ending up commissioned into the RN). Probable reason was that they had to fight the Liberal governments of 1894-95 and 1906 onwards for the naval estimates, so selling current ships could lead Lloyd George & Churchill (in his Radical days) pointing out that the RN didn't really need all that money after all.

Fair enough.

The only things I can think of in reply are that Lloyd George was Chancellor of the Exchequer and he might agree to the sale if the money was used as part payment for the 4 dreadnoughts and one battlecruiser built in the 1911-12 programme. The second is that the destroyers would be a direct purchase from British firms and not transfers of RN ships under construction.

So you would need another POD in the Admiralty to be prepared to let go currently commissioned ships. Unlikely IMHO. I think if you are looking to Britain then a better chance of having the orders in earlier, no delays in payment, so they are completed by June 1914 at the latest.

I think there was enough time to have both the June 1911 ships completed by June 1914 in the first place provided there were no delays in payment and no delays in payment was part of the OP.

Having said that placing the orders earlier will help a lot. For one thing both ships would be further advanced before the Balkan Wars broke out so that in the case of Armstrong they would have found themselves with a bigger piece of steel on the slipway with no way of getting the money back - unless in a delicious piece of irony the Greeks buy the incomplete ship instead of ordering Salamis from Germany.

IIRC the Turks bought the ships with money raised through a public subscription. If the earlier discovery of oil is the bonanza others seem to think it would have been then they probably can order the ships earlier because they don't have to "organise a collection" first. If the order was placed in December 1910 instead of June 1911 both ships would have been delivered by the end of 1913.

Is there any possibility of the Turks being able to buy Rio de Janeiro before January 1914? I think there was enough time for her to be delivered before 27th June 1914 anyway, but an earlier sale to the Ottoman Empire would help. This seems feasible because according to Wikkipeadia the ship was put up for sale in October 1913.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

If the Turks were rich enough to order the ships earlier, they would probably have brought the 1914 orders forward too. In addition to the third Reşadiye class battleship these orders included 4 submarines, 2 scout cruisers and 16 destroyers.

So the course of events seems to have to be along the lines of:

1. The Mesopotamian oil is discovered by 1906 at the latest;
2. The protected cruiser Drama laid down in an Italian yard in 1907 (or 1910 depending on the source) and confiscated by the Italian Government in 1911 is laid down at Armstrong as a scout cruiser and delivered to the Ottoman Navy;
3. The Young Turk Revolution of July 1908 still happens;
4. The new government announced a naval programme for 6 battleships, 12 destroyers and 6 submarines in 1908. Make an immediate start by buying 2 dreadnoughts, 4 destroyers and 2 submarines from British yards, which were instead of the ships bought from Germany in 1910. If ordered before the end of 1908 they should be delivered at the end of 1911;
5. The agreement with the Armstrong-Vickers syndicate to take over the management of the Smyrna base for 30 years is brought forward from December 1913 to December 1908. AND there are similar agreements for a base on the Black Sea, a base on the Mediterranean coast and most of important of all one in Constantinople or begin the move from there to Gölcük at the end of 1908;
6. Bring forward the British Naval Mission from 1910 to the end of 1908 so that there is more time to train the sailors;
7. Order Reşadiye and Mahmud Resad V in December 1910 instead of June 1911;
8. Orders the 4 submarines, 2 scout cruisers and 16 destroyers ordered in the first half of 1914 IOTL in the first half of 1911. All of these ships would have been delivered in the first half of 1914;
9. Another programme would be announced in 1914, which would include the construction of 2 battleships, 2 light cruisers, destroyers and submarines, all to be built at the shipyards set up by the Armstrong-Vickers syndicate, but with the parent companies providing some of the fixtures and fittings like the armament, armour and engines. If World War One hadn't happened there would have been additional programmes in 1917 and 1920 with the hulls having a progressively greater percentage of Turkish made content.

Therefore instead of having 2 very old pre-dreadnoughts, 2 protected cruisers dating from 1904, 4 new destroyers and 4 small destroyers dating from 1906 the Ottoman Navy of TTL would have had:

• 2 Dreadnought class dreadnoughts ordered in 1908 and completed in 1911;
• 2 Reşadiye class class dreadnoughts ordered in December 1910 and completed at the end of 1913;
• 1 Rio de Janeiro class dreadnought purchased from Brazil in October 1913 and delivered in May 1914;
• 3 scout cruisers of the British Boadicea/Blonde/Active class. One built instead of Drama and delivered in 1910. 2 ordered in 1911 and delivered by June 1914;
• 2 protected cruisers completed in 1904, i.e. the ships of OTL;
• 24 destroyers. These consisted of: the 4 small boats completed in 1906; the 4 boats ordered in 1908 and delivered in 1910 instead of the 4 boats purchased from Germany; and 16 boats ordered in the first half of 1911 and all completed by the end of 1913.
• 6 submarines. 2 British C or D class ordered at the end of 1908 and delivered by the middle of 1911. 4 E class ordered in the first half of 1911 and delivered by the end of 1913.

The bases set up under the December 1908 agreement should be completed by the OTL Turkish declaration of war i.e. October 1914.

Would the 2 dreadnoughts ordered in 1908 have deterred the Italians for starting the Italo-Turkish War? IOTL it started in September 1911 and if the shipyards got their fingers out they could have been delivered in June provided they were laid down by the end of 1908. [EDIT 19:50 25/11/16 if ordered in December 1908 for delivery by December 1911 they would probably have been laid down in the first half of 1909.] I think the Turks could at least have saved the Dodecanese islands and re-established control of Crete, an independent state since 1898, but its independence wasn't recognised internationally and even the Greek Government would not recognise the Crete's 1908 declaration of union with Greece until 1913.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

With what has now become a 1906 POD is there sufficient time to complete the Berlin to Baghdad Railway and build a branch along the Levant Coast down to Gaza? Plus upgrade the Hejaz Railway and its branches up to Standard Gauge?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

It looks as the oil in Mesopotamia could have been discovered as early as the first half of the 1870s if this extract from the Wikipaedia article on the Berlin to Baghdad Railway is correct.

As early as 1871 a commission of experts studied the geology of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and reported plentiful oil of good quality, but commented that poor transportation made it doubtful these fields could compete with Russian and American ones. During 1901 a German report announced the region had a veritable "lake of petroleum" of almost inexhaustible supply.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Would the 2 dreadnoughts ordered in 1908 have deterred the Italians for starting the Italo-Turkish War? IOTL it started in September 1911 and if the shipyards got their fingers out they could have been delivered in June provided they were laid down by the end of 1908. I think the Turks could at least have saved the Dodecanese islands and re-established control of Crete, an independent state since 1898, but its independence wasn't recognised internationally and even the Greek Government would not recognise the Crete's 1908 declaration of union with Greece until 1913.

I have no doubt that if the Ottoman Navy had a couple of dreadnoughts the Italians would hesitate to start any naval war. Dante Alighieri was not complete in time but the Italians had an overwhelming superiority in pre-dreadnoughts and armoured cruisers - I still think they would wait until their own dreadnoughts were ready. Would have been interesting to see though if one dreadnought was worth a whole squadron of pre-d's as Fisher claimed.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The Balkan Wars

IOTL the Hellenic Navy's control of the Aegean Sea seems to have played an important part in the war because it restricted the number of troops the Ottomans could send to reinforce their army in Turkey in Europe.

At the outbreak of the Balkan Wars the Hellenic Navy consisted of:

• The armoured cruiser Averof. She was laid down at the Italian Orlando yard in 1907 and purchased by the Greek Government in October 1909, launched in March 1910 and completed in May 1911. She displaced 9,958 tons. Her armament was four 9.2", eight 7.5", sixteen 3" and two 47mm guns, three 18" torpedo tubes. Her maximum speed of 22.5 knots;
• 3 Hydra class coast defence ships displacing about 5,000 tons and armed with five 150 mm guns;
• 4 Nici class destroyers. They were ordered from A.G. Vulkan in 1905 and completed in 1906-07. They displaced 350 tons, had an armament of two 12pdr and four 6pdr guns and two 18" torpedo tubes. Their maximum speed was 30 knots;
• 4 Thyella class destroyers. They were ordered from Yarrow in 1905 and completed in 1906-07. They displaced 380 tons, had an armament of two 76mm and two 57mm guns and two 18 torpedo tubes. Their maximum speed was 32 knots;
• 2 French Labeuf type submarines ordered in 1909 and completed in 1912.

The Greeks also bought 2 destroyers building for the German Navy at Vulkan in July 1912 and 4 destroyers building for Argentina at Cammell Laird on 12th October 1912 just as they were about to sail for Argentina. The protected cruiser Helle wasn't bought by Greece until 1914 having been originally ordered by China from the New York Shipbuilding Co in 1910 and completed in November 1913.

Meanwhile the most effective units of the Ottoman Navy IOTL were:

• The 2 German pre-dreadnoughts purchased in 1910. They displaced 9,900 tons, had an armament of six 280mm eight 105mm and eight 88mm guns. Their maximum speed of 16.9 knots;
• 2 protected cruisers completed in 1904. Although build to different designs displacing 3,330 and 3,830 tons respectively they had the same armament of two 6", eight 4.7", six 3pdr and one 1pdr guns and two 18" torpedo tubes. They also had the same maximum speed, 22 knots;
• 4 French Durandal class destroyers ordered in 1906 and completed 1907-08 which displaced 284 tons. Their armament was one 65mm and six 47mm guns and two 17.7" torpedo tubes. Their maximum speed was 28 knots;
• 4 German S 165 class destroyers purchased in 1910 which displaced 665 tons. Their armament was two 88 mm guns and three 17.7" torpedo tubes. Their maximum speed was 33 knots.

However, the most effective units of the Ottoman Navy ITTL were:

• 2 St Vincent class battleships ordered in 1908 and completed in 1911. These were instead of the German pre-dreadnoughts purchased in 1910. They displaced 19,560 tons. Their armament was ten 12" and twenty 4" guns and three 18" torpedo tubes. In addition to having a considerably superior armament to the German ships of OTL their maximum speed was 21 knots, not much slower than the Averof;
• The TTL cruiser Drama laid down in 1907 at a British yard and completed in 1910. She would be a Boadicea class scout cruiser. Her displacement would be 3,300 tons. Her armament would have been six 4" and four 3pdr guns and two 18" torpedo tubes. Her maximum speed would have been 25 knots;
• The two protected cruisers completed in 1904;
• The 4 Durandal class destroyers;
• The 4 destroyers ordered in 1908 instead of the German destroyers purchased in 1910. They were probably oil burning versions of the British Beagle class. Their displacement was 945 tons. They were armed with one 4" and three 12pdr guns and two 21" torpedoes. Although their gun armament was heavier than the German destroyers purchased in the real world they were slower at 27 knots. But the British Beagles were coal burners, the Turkish ships would be oil burners and that might give them a few knots extra speed. All the other ships in the Ottoman Navy would be oil burners ITTL too and that might make them one or two knots faster as well;
• 2 British D class submarines ordered in 1908 and completed in 1911. These ships were armed with three 18" torpedo tubes.

IOTL the Greek reacted to the German ordering of 2 dreadnoughts in June 1911 by ordering the Salamis in July 1912. She was not laid down until July 1913, presumably because the design was changed in December 1912 and her projected completion date was March 1915.

I'm not sure that the Greeks could have afforded to buy one or two dreadnoughts to counter the Turks 1908 TTL order for 2 St Vincent class dreadnoughts. Even if they could and still ordered their ships from Germany the projected completion date would have been September 1912. That is on the basis of the 2 Turkish ships being ordered in December 1908 for delivery by the end of 1911, which was 2½ years ahead of the June 1911 for Turkey's first 2 dreadnoughts.

In the TTL situation I think the Greeks might have been better off buying some submarines with the money they used to buy Averof with IOTL.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The Balkan Wars Part 2

If the discovery of oil in Mesopotamia in 1906 (preferably earlier) does allow the Young Turk Government to build up a bigger navy with the necessary dockyard support they probably have the money to improve their army too.

A better equipped army with greater freedom of movement thanks to the Ottoman Navy's control of the Aegean probably means that the Ottoman Empire performs considerably better in the Balkan Wars or the Ottoman Empire might seem so strong to the Balkan League that they were deterred from starting the war in the first place.

If the Balkan Wars don't happen, does World War One as we know it happen? That is without the territory they gained from Turkey in the Balkan Wars would the assassination of Franz Ferdinand have still happened?

On the other hand if the First Balkan War as we know it still breaks out then what if the improvements in the Ottoman armed forces mean that Turkish forces actually defeat and occupy their enemies?

For example Greek front. IOTL Greek control of the Aegean allowed them to occupy the islands of Lesbos, Chios, Lemnos and Samos. However, ITTL the Turks could occupy the Greek held Aegean islands and Crete. They might even be able to attempt landings on the Greek mainland. Even if that wasn't feasible the Greeks might have to divert troops from their Armies of Epirus and Thesslay to ensure that it wasn't.

 

[RodentRevolution]

The Balkan Wars Part 2


If the Balkan Wars don't happen, does World War One as we know it not happen? That is without the territory they gained from Turkey in the Balkan Wars would the assassination of Franz Ferdinand have still happened?

A Serbia still worried by the Ottomans is not going to sponsor terrorists to pick fights with the Habsburgs. You might still get a war but probably not from a Balkan cause célèbre.

 

[BlondieBC]

It looks as the oil in Mesopotamia could have been discovered as early as the first half of the 1870s if this extract from the Wikipaedia article on the Berlin to Baghdad Railway is correct.

They knew the oil was there, even thousands of years before. It was seeping to the surface.

It is all economics. I run into this on my work on ATL. Mining is much more about economics than physical realities, and by this I mean that normally we know of 10's of locations we could mine, but we only mine 1 or 2. Much like in a more empty world, there would be many locations to fish near our seaside town, but we would only go one or two locations on most weeks.

So you really should be looking at the capital cost of setting up the field,more than technical ability.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

They knew the oil was there, even thousands of years before. It was seeping to the surface.

It is all economics. I run into this on my work on ATL. Mining is much more about economics than physical realities, and by this I mean that normally we know of 10's of locations we could mine, but we only mine 1 or 2. Much like in a more empty world, there would be many locations to fish near our seaside town, but we would only go one or two locations on most weeks.

So you really should be looking at the capital cost of setting up the field,more than technical ability.

I take your point.

AFAIK the Great Powers were running the Turkish economy via the Ottoman Public Debt Administration following the Ottoman Government's declaration of bankruptcy in October, 1875. Therefore most of the money would probably be spent on paying the Turkish National Debt off anyway. That is why I'm sceptical about it being a financial bonanza for the Ottoman Government.

From the research I have done the remoteness of the Mosul was an important reason why the oil wasn't exploited earlier and improving communications with Mesopotamia was one of the reasons behind the Berlin to Baghdad Railway project, which went back to the early 1870s too. Therefore the Germans building the railway sooner would help the oil industry being developed sooner.

But then where does the money to build the railway sooner come from?

 

[BlondieBC]

I take your point.

AFAIK the Great Powers were running the Turkish economy via the Ottoman Public Debt Administration following the Ottoman Government's declaration of bankruptcy in October, 1875. Therefore most of the money would probably be spent on paying the Turkish National Debt off anyway. That is why I'm sceptical about it being a financial bonanza for the Ottoman Government.

From the research I have done the remoteness of the Mosul was an important reason why the oil wasn't exploited earlier and improving communications with Mesopotamia was one of the reasons behind the Berlin to Baghdad Railway project, which went back to the early 1870s too. Therefore the Germans building the railway sooner would help the oil industry being developed sooner.

But then where does the money to build the railway sooner come from?

To do that, you need a non-economic reason. So when I did my current ATL, I decide to create a "prestige colony" so the funds show up. And then it may make money.

An example of OTL prestige project is Tsingtao which the port alone cost 100 million marks. So from writing an ATL perspective, I would look at how much the field costs. Maybe it would be 20 million marks. Maybe it would be 2000 million marks. It takes research to know. Then I would look at a reason, so at first blush, it would be the Germans trying to stabilize the Balkans and encircle Russia. Then, who know, the ATL might flow.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

To do that, you need a non-economic reason. So when I did my current ATL, I decide to create a "prestige colony" so the funds show up. And then it may make money.

An example of OTL prestige project is Tsingtao which the port alone cost 100 million marks. So from writing an ATL perspective, I would look at how much the field costs. Maybe it would be 20 million marks. Maybe it would be 2000 million marks. It takes research to know. Then I would look at a reason, so at first blush, it would be the Germans trying to stabilize the Balkans and encircle Russia. Then, who know, the ATL might flow.

100 million Marks seem to be the equivalent of £4.8 million in 1900, which at the time would have bought 3 or 4 pre-dreadnought battleships.

According to the book I'm looking at the Germans had been trying to increase their influence over the Ottoman Government for decades, but the same book said that Britain's trade with the Ottoman Empire was almost double Germany and Austria-Hungary combined.