Ogedei Lives

[Don Draper]

What if Ogedei had survived longer than he did OTL, and the Mongol invasion of Europe continued?

 

[Valdemar II]

What if Ogedei had survived longer than he did OTL, and the Mongol invasion of Europe continued?

No. (try to read the several other threads on the subject)

 

[rcduggan]

No. (try to read the several other threads on the subject)

While I agree with you, it would be good to state reasons why you hold this opinion rather than giving a one-word response.

 

[Malta]

Hmmm, certainly if the army had not turned back then Eastern Europe would have faced a sacking of its lifetime. Possibly as far as Northern Italy and the Low Land countries.

 

[antisocrates]

Probably, though, not to the extent some people think. The army that was there was pretty much at its limit. Any further push into Europe would've been counterproductive (due both to the nature of the terrain and the issue of foraging adequately) and the Mongols did realize that. That is why theres's a strong evidence that they planned a satrapy around Russia and Hungary, with Hungary as their forward base for further European conquest, even if Hungary itself was barely adequate for the Mongol armies as constituted then. However, if nothing else but Ogadei's death is PODed, then other events would soon overtake the Mongols, and Europe would remain a sideshow. Frankly, Mongol scouts found Europe rather poor compared to the Middle East, not to mention China. The bulk of modern Mongol military would be kept in China in their decades-long struggle to conquer the South Song dynasty. The troops that remained were heavily dilluted with Turks and other Central Asian nomads, and mainly fought in the initial Mongol style, rather than the more mature later proto-Yuan combined arms style. The Golden Khans fought in the traditional style, with very little influence from the combined arms style of later Mongol warfare that conquered China. A steppe army in the 13th century had no chance to conquer Europe, not with its dense population and multitude of castles and forests. The logistics just wasn't there. The only possible way to conquer Europe would've been if Kublai and his father decided to conquer Europe instead and shifted the entire Mongol operation to Russia-- and turn Russia into Europe's Jin Empire, the place where the Mongols recruited manpower and wealth to pursue a logistic persisting strategy of conquest of Europe a la Wales or South Song. Like how Kublai's father adjusted to the realities of south China (death trap for cavalry warfare), Mongol system, like the Romans, would add auxillaries to suit the occasion. Other than this, the Mongol invasion would've been ephemeral, though it'd have caused helluva damage.

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

Probably, though, not to the extent some people think. The army that was there was pretty much at its limit. Any further push into Europe would've been counterproductive (due both to the nature of the terrain and the issue of foraging adequately) and the Mongols did realize that. That is why theres's a strong evidence that they planned a satrapy around Russia and Hungary, with Hungary as their forward base for further European conquest, even if Hungary itself was barely adequate for the Mongol armies as constituted then. However, if nothing else but Ogadei's death is PODed, then other events would soon overtake the Mongols, and Europe would remain a sideshow. Frankly, Mongol scouts found Europe rather poor compared to the Middle East, not to mention China. The bulk of modern Mongol military would be kept in China in their decades-long struggle to conquer the South Song dynasty. The troops that remained were heavily dilluted with Turks and other Central Asian nomads, and mainly fought in the initial Mongol style, rather than the more mature later proto-Yuan combined arms style. The Golden Khans fought in the traditional style, with very little influence from the combined arms style of later Mongol warfare that conquered China. A steppe army in the 13th century had no chance to conquer Europe, not with its dense population and multitude of castles and forests. The logistics just wasn't there. The only possible way to conquer Europe would've been if Kublai and his father decided to conquer Europe instead and shifted the entire Mongol operation to Russia-- and turn Russia into Europe's Jin Empire, the place where the Mongols recruited manpower and wealth to pursue a logistic persisting strategy of conquest of Europe a la Wales or South Song. Like how Kublai's father adjusted to the realities of south China (death trap for cavalry warfare), Mongol system, like the Romans, would add auxillaries to suit the occasion. Other than this, the Mongol invasion would've been ephemeral, though it'd have caused helluva damage.

I must say, that is one of the most concise and informative explanations on this kind of subject I've read