Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Glorious is still around true. And it also makes a certain degree of sense to send it to the Mediterranean. Which also opens the question of the Free French fleet. Richelieu and Strasbourg are probably paired with Hood at Scapa Flow at this point the Germans have Gneisenau, Bismarck is more or less worked out, TTL she entered service in May and Tirpitz has just been delivered, just like King George V and Prince of Wales...

Lorraine likely either goes to Alexandria or is based at Gibraltar.
Did Courageous get sunk TTL?
 
Glorious is still around true. And it also makes a certain degree of sense to send it to the Mediterranean. Which also opens the question of the Free French fleet. Richelieu and Strasbourg are probably paired with Hood at Scapa Flow at this point the Germans have Gneisenau, Bismarck is more or less worked out, TTL she entered service in May and Tirpitz has just been delivered, just like King George V and Prince of Wales...

In a perfect world Richelieu would be the one that puts down Bismarck. To have Bismarck sunk by an admiral, a king or the heir to the throne is just meh. Bismarck needs to be destroyed by a statesman of his own caliber. If it happens to be a French statesman, even better!
 
In a perfect world Richelieu would be the one that puts down Bismarck. To have Bismarck sunk by an admiral, a king or the heir to the throne is just meh. Bismarck needs to be destroyed by a statesman of his own caliber. If it happens to be a French statesman, even better!
I agree...it is a shame that we don't have a bb named after venizelos..
 
I agree...it is a shame that we don't have a bb named after venizelos..
I bet that ITTL there will be at least one major ship in the future Hellenic Navy with the name Eleftherios Venizelos. An optimal scenario would be smt like that; Turkey participates in the war on the Axis side and when the Allies win the war Turkey is forced to give a panzerschiff to the HN as part of war reparations, just as Italy gave up this ship to Greece IOTL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_cruiser_Eugenio_di_Savoia . The Turkish ship transferred to Greece could be renamed Eleftherios Venizelos...
Ok, I know it sounds a little bit ASB but one can dream!
 
What can Britain realistically do? That is a very good question. I think the north littoral of eastern Mediterranean is now of greater importance to Britain since the Straits are involved and there is a possibility for an Axis drive to Suez from Turkey.
An Axis invasion of Syria... any advance has to be kept in supply from a single railroad ultimately leading to Constantinople and from there Europe... same with every other axis army in Anatolia. Doable but priorities will be interesting to behold...

I think there is greater incentive to give less priority to the East African Campaign. To be honest, the only important target in Italian East Africa is Massawa. The British cannot rapidly advance in Eritrea due to logistics. A possible scenario would have been if the 4th Indian Division is never sent to Sudan but it stays in the Western Desert. In its place, the 11th or 12th African Division is sent to Sudan and the southern advance is butterflied. Having the 4th in Cyrenaica would mean that there is no gap in the advance waiting for the 6th Australian to move forward.
There is an obvious difference here before counting the deployments of British empire divisions...

Another thing is the allocation of the ~900 american 75mm guns that arrived in summer. At least the mle 1897 can be sent to the Free French in Syria to help them arm and expand their forces. Likewise, some Royal Engineers can also go to the Mandate to help develop a redoubt at Mount Lebanon and the Alawite Mountains.
The Greeks could also use some of these... on the other hand they take shipping space to go around Africa. Do you want to use it up for mostly old artillery... or for say Centaur tanks? :angel:

Other than that, the British can furnish the 6th Infantry Division with artillery, engineer and signal units early on and have it ready for deployment at e.g. January 1941. They can also send the 1st Cavalry Division to Syria-Lebanon to bolster the French.

Lastly, with more commitments in the Balkans and Levant, the Circus Offensives may be toned down or even abandoned altogether. That would be for the best since it was such a waste of pilots and machines. Instead a number of Hurricane squadrons can be deployed in the Mediterranean Theater from December 1940- January 1941 onwards.
Speaking of RAF squadrons before altering RAF deployments in Western Europe let me point to a couple maps...

1629300705549.png

1629300794042.png
 
An Axis invasion of Syria... any advance has to be kept in supply from a single railroad ultimately leading to Constantinople and from there Europe... same with every other axis army in Anatolia. Doable but priorities will be interesting to behold...

Well, I certainly don't think that Syria will be prioritized over Smyrna and Constantinople. The Queen of Cities doesn't have fortifications, just the world's deepest moat. Smyrna has fortifications, but how many divisions will be needed to siege Smyrna? That lives some divisions free for action against the Levant, at least until Barbarossa kicks in.
There is an obvious difference here before counting the deployments of British empire divisions...
The Poles?
The French in Somaliland?
Is Centaur the only difference when it comes to british armoured forces or are there more ?

Speaking of RAF squadrons before altering RAF deployments in Western Europe let me point to a couple maps...
*Sighing*... Maleme again instead of Souda as an airfield ...

Araxos airbase is a nice touch though.

Basically the RAF can transfer aircraft to Malta directly from Greece. Moreover, instead of Takoradi we may have the Dakar Route, less shipping time, so more aircraft can be send over a certain period of time.
 
Can an earlier "Torch" operation take place with the Free French instead of the Americans now that they have the momentum of flipping provinces?
Also the Italians in Africa are a nuisance that can be easily be dealt with for morale boost with not that many troop involvement as OTL so the East Africa campaign should take place.
I see the Syrian border as an offensive one really. The French can punish the Turks from there and get to the Taurus Mountains maybe even bringing the Kurds to revolt. The Turks have a lot of manpower but not enough weapons to handle both fronts effectively especially the Smyrna fort area which would demand a lot of heavy artillery.

About the Taranto raid though. Oh boy this one has the potential to be really devastating if the HAF is involved and the greek airfields utilized instead of a carrier or even with it (risking a carrier is always avoided). We could see much more havoc there and the complete death of a big part of the Italian navy.
 
About the Taranto raid though. Oh boy this one has the potential to be really devastating if the HAF is involved and the greek airfields utilized instead of a carrier or even with it (risking a carrier is always avoided). We could see much more havoc there and the complete death of a big part of the Italian navy.
*Slaps forehead* I forgot Taranto !

Although, we may get a Trafalgar instead of a mini-Pearl Harbor. I have read many takes of an alt-Taranto in timelines like Astrodragon's and fester's. But what about a battle where Cunningham catches the Italians not in harbor but in open sea? To quote from the "Struggle for the Middle Sea":
On 11 November twenty-one Swordfish flying in two waves from Illustrious swooped down and attacked Taranto. They torpedoed Littorio and knocked her out of the war for four months, Duilio for six, and Cavour for the duration. The raid occurred just hours before a planned sortie to cover a bombardment of Suda Bay by the 1st (Cruiser) Division, which Mussolini insisted upon as a reply to Greece’s unexpectedly stiff resistance, and of which the British had no inkling.

To sink a battleship in port and shallow waters is a devastating blow if the ship turtles over. But what if the ship is sunk in somewhat deeper water? I had always a soft spot on the Swordfish, being obsolescent but soldiering through. Warspite gets another special place. What about a naval battle where they destroy together the italian battleline?

In case it is a raid against the Taranto harbour, I leave this map here with the side note that Preveza-Taranto is 344km and Sarande-Taranto 238km.

If ABC doesn't get Glorious, then maybe Sommerville will. With Malta receiving aircraft from Greece he doesn't need to park Hurricanes on Ark Royal, He can engage Campioni's fleet of Vittorio Veneto, Cesare, six cruisers, and fourteen destroyers with two carriers and whichever BB/BCs are allocated to him.
 
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I'm not inclined to comment in detail on Taranto, besides a few observations:

This was the status of the RN in OTL early November 1940
  1. Home Fleet
    1. King George V (just delivered working out)
    2. Nelson
    3. Rodney
    4. Hood
    5. Repulse
  2. Atlantic convoys
    1. Revenge
    2. Royal Sovereign
  3. Mediterranean fleet
    1. Ramillies
    2. Warspite
    3. Valiant
    4. Malaya
  4. Force H
    1. Barham (transferred to Alexandria mid November)
    2. Renown
  5. Under repair
    1. Queen Elizabeth
    2. Resolution
Opposition was the 6 Italian battleships in the Mediterranean, plus Scharnhorst, Gneisenau and Bismarck (working out)

What is different TTL so far?
  1. Renown and Repulse are gone, Resolution is operational and Glorius is in service
  2. Richelieu, Strasbourg and Lorraine are Free French
  3. Scharnhorst is gone. Gneisenau and Bismarck are fully operational, Tirpitz just entered service
  4. The Italians may be a bit more aggressive, they've fought and won an action off Liguria against the French back in June.
  5. There is one more allied battleship, Salamis, in the Mediterranean (as of Greece joining the war)
How that's likely to affect allied dispositions? The Germans are somewhat more dangerous, so Strasbourg and Richelieu will be tied down with the Home Fleet. Resolution is almost certainly with Force H. Which leaves us with an additional carrier in Glorious. What are the RN carrier dispositions at the moment? Illustrious and Eagle are with the Mediterranean fleet. Ark Royal is with Force H. Argus and Furious are ferrying aircraft to Africa from the British home islands. Who's lacking a carrier permanently assigned to it? Home Fleet arguably...
 
Part 65
Taranto, November 13th, 1940

The British had waited for a week, for the possibility of the Regia Marina coming out to give battle following the start of the war with Greece and the invasion of the Dodecanese. The Italian navy had instead quietly stuck in port, it's battleships and heavy cruisers at least. If the Italians were not coming out then perhaps the Royal Navy could come visiting. A couple of flares illuminated the harbour as the Swordfish of Illustrious and Eagle attacked. By the time the attack was over out of the five Italian battleships in the harbour Duilo, Cavour and Cesare were sunk or sinking.

Belfast, November 14th, 1940

James Craig, had been prime minister of Northern Irealand for even longer than Michael Collins had been prime minister of the rest of Ireland. In all these years he had been as firmly Unionist as Collins had been Nationalist. It had been an often thankless job. It had become a distinctly worse one as London's government had seen no issue back in late June to offer Collins re-unification of Ireland in exchange for Irish participation to the war. Collins had not said yes, right away but had proven to wily to say no either. Instead he had raised the all too sensible question if the government of the North agreed. If it did why the republic would be most interested in London's proposals. That had put the pressure on Craig, who had firmly refused. But as Collins kept entertaining discussions and getting increasingly lured by the possibility of a united Ireland and British shipping losses kept mounting so did the pressure on Craig. It had proven too much as he died, in what was a rather inopportune moment for the Unionist cause...

Madrid, November 17th, 1940


The small room was filled with smoke, alcohol and a bunch of highly influential but rather disgruntled people. Three weeks earlier Ochoa had finally met with Hitler. Instead of finally throwing Spain's lot in the war as her honour and self-interest demanded the man had adamantly refused, or according to some of the information they had received made completely impossible demands to entertain the thought. It shouldn't be really surprising that Ochoa did not want to repay Spain's obligations to Germany and Italy for their aid during the war, the man was a closet liberal himself who had given an amnesty to Republicans for political crimes and had even tried since then to rein in on what he called "excesses" in prosecuting common republicans for "non political" crimes, a broad enough definition for judges true to the cause to do what needed doing. It was clear that Ochoa had to go and a new junta take his place. The Abwehr agents they were in contact with most certainly agreed. The plotting begun...

Golcuk, Turkey, November 21st, 1940

The Turkish navy had left Marmaris in force two days before, much to the alarm of the Greeks and the British, who had feared it had been the opening move of Turkey joining the war. Instead it had cleared around the Dodecanese and sailed north, finally entering the straits to reach Golcuk, shadowed all the way to the straits by the Greeks. The temptation to attack the fleet while it was out in the open had been great. But that would had meant bringing Turkey to the war a risk none had dared to take. And thus the Turkish navy had found itself back again at the Bosporus. With the Dodecanese under Greek control Marmaris would had been vulnerable in the extreme...

Rhodes, November 22nd, 1940


Cesare De Vecchi, put his signature at the instrument of surrender as the Greek flag was raised amidst the cheers of the locals over the governor's palace and the forts of the old town and the better part of 22,000 Italian soldiers and sailors went into captivity. Leros and Kos were still in Italian hands, but this was small consolation. He had fiercely advocated war against Greece, had single-handedly tried to begin it back in August in hopes of advancing his own place in the fascist hierarchy. The war coming only for him to end within two weeks defeated and in Greek captivity had been the last thing he had expected. But perhaps the future would hold more surprises for him in the future. Greek investigators were already busy in the archives of the governorate looking for clues about who had actually given the orders for the attack on Tinos back in August...

Kleisura & mount Trebeshine, Greek-Albanian border, November 23rd, 1940

Italian artillery eased off its bombardment. The 14 Italian divisions in the Albanian front had attacked again and again the Greek positions, Height 731 the lynchpin of Greek defences around Kleisura had been at the receiving end of over 100,000 artillery rounds and dozes of assaults but it had held out. So had the rest of the Greek line, every time the Italians had made gains, Greek counterattacks had wrestled them back. It made no sense to continue, casualties were already running to upwards of 17,000 for no apparent gain. At least in Yugoslavia the axis armies might have been taking casualties but kept advancing if increasingly slowly...
 
So the Greeks have taken the Dodecanese, Michael Collins is steaming towards full Irish unification, and Germany is planning to stick an ice pick into Spain. No telling whether an attempt to unseat Ochoa would actually work (guessing not, given German intelligence's dubious quality at best compared to their contemporaries), but whether it does or not, it could do quite a bit to shake Spain's neutrality. The country might be in no condition to support a war effort, but some hard-core Falangist might not see things the same way; alternatively, Ochoa reacting to a failed coup attempt by being a lot more cushy than Franco ever was might invoke a punitive response by the Axis. Admittedly drastic options - Spain really is in a bad place at this time due to the depredations of the Civil War, making active military involvement that much harder to measure. But a Spain that has taken a side decisively rather than played the teams from the sidelines has a lot of potential agency on the world's trajectory, too.

Interested to see how well Greece ends up holding against the Axis on land. Initial results against Italy and Bulgaria look promising, but it's still Italy and Bulgaria - German military forces will be an entirely different kettle of fish, and the fortifications in Smyrna will more than likely have to hold up against Turkey. Will be interesting to see whether Greece manages to keep hold of any mainland European and/or Asian territories, or whether it will have to fight on from Crete and the Dodecanese.

I didn't say it earlier, but happy birthday to this timeline!
 
Taranto, November 13th, 1940

The British had waited for a week, for the possibility of the Regia Marina coming out to give battle following the start of the war with Greece and the invasion of the Dodecanese. The Italian navy had instead quietly stuck in port, it's battleships and heavy cruisers at least. If the Italians were not coming out then perhaps the Royal Navy could come visiting. A couple of flares illuminated the harbour as the Swordfish of Illustrious and Eagle attacked. By the time the attack was over out of the five Italian battleships in the harbour Duilo, Cavour and Cesare were sunk or sinking.
So ITTL's Taranto Raid we have 2 British carriers participating instead of one and more extensive damage to the Italian capital ships. I wonder if there will be a Battle of Cape Spartivento ITTL.
 
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A couple of flares illuminated the harbour as the Swordfish of Illustrious and Eagle attacked. By the time the attack was over out of the five Italian battleships in the harbour Duilo, Cavour and Cesare were sunk or sinking.

"Sunk or sinking" ... not "the captain ordered to run her aground". Considering the OTL efforts, I doubt that they will be raised and rebuilt. I think only USA had the resources and shipyards to take on such projects (the Standards after Pearl). Considering italian resources, I think these three battleships are permanently out of the war.

The italian battleline consists now of Littorio, Vittorio Veneto and Andrea Doria.

Where any cruisers hit in the raid?

Belfast, November 14th, 1940

Britain cannot send troops to Ulster to force unification. Also they can only promise to simply support the unification after the war, Perhaps to support a referendum post-war. Other than that, I think it will be civil war.

In the case of referendum, according to the 1937 census, Fermanagh, Tyrone and south Armagh had a catholic majority. Would Collins join the war for the two counties? AFAIK it is probable especially if there will be no conscription. If he tries to introduce conscription, he will have a huge internal problem. Perhaps conscription could be introduced later on, after USA has entered the war.

It goes without saying that having any british troops at State soil at all, would be a big no-no. But Canadians could be sent to bolster the State's defences, at least until Americans join the war.

And thus the Turkish navy had found itself back again at the Bosporus.
Submarines included?

The Allies need to retreat as quickly as they can from Constantinople. If it could not be held before, now the City's fall is only a matter of time.

I can almost hear busy noises from Lemnos with the Greeks fortifying the island along with Imbros and Tenedos in order to bottle up the turkish fleet in the Straits.

Italian artillery eased off its bombardment. The 14 Italian divisions in the Albanian front had attacked again and again the Greek positions, Height 731 the lynchpin of Greek defences around Kleisura had been at the receiving end of over 100,000 artillery rounds and dozes of assaults but it had held out. So had the rest of the Greek line, every time the Italians had made gains, Greek counterattacks had wrestled them back. It made no sense to continue, casualties were already running to upwards of 17,000 for no apparent gain. At least in Yugoslavia the axis armies might have been taking casualties but kept advancing if increasingly slowly...

I see that Height 731 is the Greek Verdun in TTL as well.

ipsoma3.jpg
 
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So the Greeks have taken the Dodecanese, Michael Collins is steaming towards full Irish unification, and Germany is planning to stick an ice pick into Spain. No telling whether an attempt to unseat Ochoa would actually work (guessing not, given German intelligence's dubious quality at best compared to their contemporaries), but whether it does or not, it could do quite a bit to shake Spain's neutrality. The country might be in no condition to support a war effort, but some hard-core Falangist might not see things the same way; alternatively, Ochoa reacting to a failed coup attempt by being a lot more cushy than Franco ever was might invoke a punitive response by the Axis.
Ochoa is in a curious position. OTL he became the "butcher of Asturias" despite being quite a bit more moderate than the grand majority of his colleagues. Here his survival and the death of Franco have propelled him at the head of the Nationalist side between rank and capability. Compared to Franco he's probably a better soldier and for that matter a better human being... but on the down side he hardly has Franco's grip to power and the Spanish army was... shall we say prone to coups and infighting? If even under Franco Carlists and Falangists had start throwing grenades on each other in churches...

So ITTL's Taranto Raid we have 2 British carriers participating instead of one and more extensive damage to the Italian capital ships. I wonder if there will be a Battle of Cape Spartivento ITTL.
You have two carriers yes. But...

"Sunk or sinking" ... not "the captain ordered to run her aground". Considering the OTL efforts, I doubt that they will be raised and rebuilt. I think only USA had the resources and shipyards to take on such projects (the Standards after Pearl). Considering italian resources, I think these three battleships are permanently out of the war.

The italian battleline consists now of Littorio, Vittorio Veneto and Andrea Doria.
Or it could be just a turn of phrase on my part. Or again Littorio was much larger and more modern than the old rebuilds. :angel:

Britain cannot send troops to Ulster to force unification. Also they can only promise to simply support the unification after the war, Perhaps to support a referendum post-war. Other than that, I think it will be civil war.
They cannot and they would not be interested either. For that matter making promises for peaceful negotiated unification and actually holding to them post war are different things. "Sorry mate you failed to convince the north to unite with you"

In the case of referendum, according to the 1937 census, Fermanagh, Tyrone and south Armagh had a catholic majority. Would Collins join the war for the two counties? AFAIK it is probable especially if there will be no conscription. If he tries to introduce conscription, he will have a huge internal problem. Perhaps conscription could be introduced later on, after USA has entered the war.
This is under the "stay tuned for coming episodes" :p

Submarines included?

The Allies need to retreat as quickly as they can from Constantinople. If it could not be held before, now the City's fall is only a matter of time.

I can almost hear busy noises from Lemnos with the Greeks fortifying the island along with Imbros and Tenedos in order to bottle up the turkish fleet in the Straits.
From the Turkish point of view with the Italians so inconveniently losing the Dodecanese, Marmaris becomes VERY vulnerable. It's only 60km from Maritsa airport in Rhodes for example. Going behind the straits at least offers a very good defensive position... aside from threatening Constantinople and making the fleet available in the Black sea.

I see that Height 731 is the Greek Verdun in TTL as well.
Geography being the same...
 
From the Turkish point of view with the Italians so inconveniently losing the Dodecanese, Marmaris becomes VERY vulnerable. It's only 60km from Maritsa airport in Rhodes for example. Going behind the straits at least offers a very good defensive position... aside from threatening Constantinople and making the fleet available in the Black sea.

Well, under these circumstances there is no need to send a garrison to Crete other than RAF and RN units. The Dodecanese Islands are greek (Leros and Kos cannot hold on for much), the older half of the italian battleline is sunk and the turkιsh fleet is in the Marmara Sea. I would bet that the british priorities are to reinforce Malta and keep the turkish fleet bottled up in the Straits.

So there is a combination of a more successful Taranto, an additional commitment to the Straits and the reality (along witht the perception) that the local minor Ally is more competent, powerful and alligned to Britain compared to OTL.
 
Isn't the Turkish navy vulnerable in the Straits as well as Greece controls Eastern Thrace and Smyrna? An attack against Greece might mean a similar fate to their nave ass the Italian in Taranto. That might give them more thoughts and wait for the inevitable German involvement.
 
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