Non-Communist Czechoslovakia: bad in the short term, good in the long term?

[Zajir]

POD: The Czechoslovak Communist Party recieves strict instructions "never overthrow the bourgeois democratic system".

Effects on the USSR:

In the short term:
1. The strong Czechslovak army is not in the Warsaw Pact
2. The position of the Soviet army in Germany is a bit weaker
3. Hungary/Poland might want a similar status to CS, Eurocommunism might appear sooner in the West, but as in OTL these movements would be repressed (Hungary) or co-opted (Poland)

In the long term:
1. Neutral Czechoslovakia would be the most pro-soviet capitalist country, won't join NATO
2. Similar to Finland, it would be a way for the USSR to get western technology starting from the 1970s when the gap between the West and the USSR appears, but even better as CS is more industralized
3. Lots of joint ventures would be possible (especially cars, trains etc.)

In the longest term:
1. Pro-Soviet feeling might decrease in CS with the post-war generation growing up, being more anti-authoritarian, more integrated with Western Europe etc.
2. The example of Czechoslovakia would be taken up by reformists in the rest of the Warsaw Pact states again, in the USSR itself Czechoslovakia would definitely be a model for Perestroika etc.

 

[Karelian]

Finland was a front window to the West because it was so small and techically a Baltic island from a military point of view. Communist takeover was also initially deemed like a foregone conclusion and thus it was not rushed. Then, after the Greek Civil War started, Stalin opted to maintain the new status quo for the time being.

Chzechoslovakia is prime real estate right in the heart of Europe, and as you mentioned, it threatens key supply routes of Soviet forces in Eastern Germany.
The traumatised postwar Soviet leaders were not taking any chances, and first and foremost wanted Stalinist totalitarian control in areas they deemed vital for their interests.

 

[Clandango]

Might depend partially on how Czechoslovakia behaves. If their is no communist group the Western Europeans and French might not put as much focus on working to avoid the Italians Communists winning a general election, and I also expect there would be some hostility between the Czechoslovaks and at least some of the Germanic states, plus possibly the Hungarians. Maybe also you can find a way to get the Czecks to continue claiming the area below,, though they would probably give up soon after and focus on getting rid of Germans. They might expel different people than they did under the Communist government, or end up sending them to different occupied areas. Really, though, I doubt the Soviets would want to give up such an area, even if various sorts of socialists are in charge. After all, non-Bolsheviks, and even plenty of those, would all be eliminated in Russia during the previous decades. Stalinism and subversion should to Russia came first.

Kłodzko Land - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Lalli]

Non-communist Czechoslovakia is not very likely after WW2. Soviets realised how important the country would be so it wouldn't be allowed being out of communist bloc. Strategically and industrially just too important. Soviets in OTL even ivnaded CS only because there was attempt to change communist doctrines. At best (still unlikely) would be just neutral pro-Soviet Union Czechoslovakia but its independence would be even more limited than Finnish independence during Cold War altough not as badly as WarPac nations.