(I'm basically writing this like a HOI4 campaign.)
I think that there was always going to be an inevitable counter-reaction to Bolshevism, especially considering the leading/central roles many Jews played in the Russian and German Revolutions. Without the Nazis coming to power in Germany, there would still be an ultranationalist/monarchist government that comes to power, but rather than push for anything more than the borders of 1914 (at least not right away), they would focus on being a diplomatic superpower first and likely cooperate with the Poles to create a German and Polish-led Intermarium, and alsogradually improve relations with the French, by reluctantly abandoning their claims to Alsace-Lorraine, but to compensate, Germany gets a good free trade agreement. By 1943, Germany is ready for war for with the Soviet Union.
Broadly speaking, what have the new Central Powers been doing with their Jewish populations from 1936-1943 ITTL? The ghettos have returned, unless their Jewish residents convert to Christianity. Likely there are labor camps/factories, but with good conditions and food rations, as they wish for their second-class citizens to thrive, rather than slowly die out. When Stalin demands Bessarabia, the Intermarium honors their mutual defense pact and declares war on the Soviet Union.
The French political troubles still ran hot, what with the French not facing an external enemy in Germany to galvanize the people, and they see Communist and Fascist uprisings at this time; each, ironically enough, pushing for the government to attack Germany with their lowered defenses. The Fourth Republic collapses into a military junta led by De Gualle and Petain, and a French civil war begins, or more accurately the "Cordon de Paix" suppressing the Fascist and Communist revolutionaries.
As the war in the East drags on, Jewish women and girls replace their men in the factories, as the men have been conscripted into penal battalions to "purge their race of the stain of the Great War". Eventually, German scientists, with the help of "Schutzjuden" (protected Jews) like Albert Einstein are able to detonate a nuclear bomb in international waters in the Mediterranean, thanks to sea access through Yugoslavia.
In the first few months of 1945, Leningrad would fall, but Moscow and Stalingrad would remain under siege, but the Caucasus would be cut of by Intermarium troops . Seeking new allies, the German government, led by Emperor Wilhelm III, would reach out to Britain, Greece, Turkey, and Italy, and hold a conference in Vienna about restructuring the Balkans and Eastern Europe. (The French were not invited, due to the ongoing civil unrest.) Britain, having no interest except to keep the continent from having one single ruler, suggested suing for peace, but this was rejected. Italy, seeking the Adriatic coast territories, asked what it would take for Yugoslavia to trade for those territories. The Bulgarian Tsar proposed that a personal union between his house and the Karageorgevich House would suffice, semi-integrating Bulgaria into Yugoslavia, if Romania would cede Southern Dubruja, acknowledging Romanian claims in Ukraine. Hungary wanted Northern Transylvania for this deal to go through, but Germany denied them and played peacemaker, turning Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania into a free trade and transit zone, to harness the power of the Danube River under German direction, and improve its functions. Turkey's European Bosporous territory would be forsworn by Bulgaria and Greece for twenty years and turned into a Demilitarized International Zone in exchange for Turkey taking overlordship of the Caucasus region, but sharing resource extraction rights with the Germans and Italians. (Rhodes and the Dodecanese Islands would be returned to Greece, and Cyprus would become a British crown colony, with free trade and transit for Turks and Greeks.) A Karageorgevich princess and young Prince Simeon of Bulgaria would be betrothed, as a final agreement for the conference.
Britain would not declare war on the Soviet Union, as they saw it as a counterbalance to German power, and yet, with none of their allies or protected nations under German threat, a Lend-Lease bill to the Intermarium would be narrowly passed through the House of Commons by Oswald Mosely and his British Union of Fascists, a growing minority party, and so British steel and other war materiel would become available to Germany and its allies at a discount.
At the same time, in the United States, without a war economy to pad out the pseudo-socialist policies of FDR's administration, the Great Depression would become a great stagnation in wages which were had before 1929, but a growing national debt and inflation, which President Truman would inherit, and Congress would undo most of the New Deal. America would remain in splendid isolation, however there would still likely be a Pacific War with the Japanese. However, to defeat the Japanese, an amphibious invasion would be required, and by 1947, Emperor Hirohito would personally surrender to General Macarthur in Kyoto where the Imperial Family was evacuated to when Tokyo fell in 1946.
With fresh blood from Italy and Turkey, the Caucasus fell, and eventually 3 million Jewish men would serve with distinction on the Eastern Front, though it would remain the policy to execute Soviet political officers, especially if they were Jewish. In August 1946, Stalingrad would fall, followed by Moscow in December. The battle lines would remain static, and Stalin would seek a truce, aware of the German nuclear capability through his spies in the Balkans, specifically through Tito and his partisans.
Talks fell through in Stockholm, and, as February turned to March in 1947; the remnants of Soviet Army would make one final counteroffensive. For the next two months the three main strongholds of Leningrad, Moscow, and Stalingrad would routinely change hands, and seeing no other way to stem the tide of German and allied blood, he ordered the nuclear bombing of Arkhangelsk, Samara, Ufa, Chelyabinsk, and Atyrau.
(Mussolini would purchase Tunisia from the Cordon de Paix in exchange for help suppressing colonial uprisings (by the Italian Army) and the French Communards (with the help of Blackshirt units.)
As it happened, Stalin and his cabinet were in Ufa when the bomb dropped. With the head cut of from the serpent, regional commanders and politicians scrambled to find someone to represent the nation and negotiate for a surrender. Eventually, Nikita Khrushchev, having been on the front lines near Stalingrad, was pushed forward by the Supreme Soviet as the new General Secretary, and he unconditionally surrendered in Moscow on September 2, 1947 to Field Marshal Erwin Rommel. A "Joint Council of Military Government" between German and Russian generals, except for those arrested for war crimes, would rule Russia during the peace talks.
Poland would surrender the Germanic territories in the north in exchange for their old borders as the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, (splitting Czechoslovakia with the Germans and Hungarians), with the addition of Latvia and Estonia. The Germans would also retain Memel and the Romanians would retain their new lands in Western Ukraine. The Romanovs would be restored in Russia with a German-style constitutional monarchy, but would be heavily demilitarized by treaty, but not deindutrialized, and they would become heavily economically dependent on German loans to rebuild the Rodina.
In January 1948, Colonel Dario Gabbai petitioned Emperor Wilhelm to "honor the service of the Jewish race to the freedom and good welfare of the European community of nations, by freeing us to take hold of our own blood and soil; to reclaim Haaretz Yisroel". The Emperor replied, "When this program began, I gave my word that the Jewish nation would be reborn in fire and iron and blood. You have shared in our victory, now it is time to claim your own."
With the resources of the Intermarium, by 1950, 10 million Jews from Europe and Russia would arrive in Israel, and in 1952, the State of Israel would be founded. An Arab-Israeli war would start, but the Jews, hardened by war and flush with war materiel from the Intermarium and plundered from British stockpiles drove back every invader. In 1955, a new constitution would explicitly define Israel as a Jewish ethno-state, and the Arabs would be expelled from Israel over the next ten years.
Beyond this point, I can't really predict further.
