No More Oil

Johnestauffer

There is a finite amount of oil. As POD the earth realizes that the stocks of oil will be depleted by 2010 at the latest. When this news finally sinks tremendous changes begin to occur in our world.
If this was true, how would we cope with this situation? It would obviously make major changes in our way of life.
How do you think this would change the way we do things?
How would the world political scene change?
 

Straha

Banned
We'd be so fucked. Oil is the basis of western civilization. We'd experiance some TOUGH ecades while we slowly moved to non-oil fuels.
 

Hansmeister

Oil can be chemically created out of tar sands or coal. After a Manhattan type program reduces he cost of converting, combined with efforts to reduce fuel consumption in motor vehicles the world goes on as usual.
 

Straha

Banned
Hansmeister said:
Oil can be chemically created out of tar sands or coal. After a Manhattan type program reduces he cost of converting, combined with efforts to reduce fuel consumption in motor vehicles the world goes on as usual.
Click to expand...
Yes thats very true but how long would it take? And how severe would the economic crash between the depletion of oil and the development of good coal-oil conversion be?
 

JLCook

ethanol and soydiesel

Though much poo-pooed by many (especially by those deeply commited to petroleum), will become extremely viable alternatives, as prices rise. Already, ethanol is commonly blended with gasoline at the 10% level. I am in favor of increasing this, immediately, in my area at least, to 20% or 25%! If this reduces world food supplies, let the petroleum produces eat petro-burgers! I don't believe in any sort of nonsense about how reserves are too low or how we don't have refining capacity. Another suggestion :ANWaR! And screw the bambi-lovers!
 

Straha

Banned
going into the ANWAR would mean destruction of a sensitive ecology for a little gain. Its pointless and self-destructive.

now back to AH...

A crash program to make fuel cell cars?
 

Hansmeister

ethanol is actually a complete waste of resources atm. It takes more energy to create it than you get out of it. However, biotech engineers are trying to design bacteria that would convert corn directly into ethanol, greatly reducing the cost of production.

Tar sands are really the key to the future as there is a staggering amount of oil that can be extracted from it. Canada alone has as much oil that can be created in that way as Saudi Arabia has in reserves. The cost has been sinking dramatically over the years and now lies at about $40 per barrel.

Even if we run out of oil, the unlimited resource of the human mind will find a way to easily compensate.
 

Hansmeister

Straha said:
going into the ANWAR would mean destruction of a sensitive ecology for a little gain. Its pointless and self-destructive.

now back to AH...

A crash program to make fuel cell cars?
Click to expand...

Actually, there is about zero risk to the environment from drilling in ANWAR. This is just a silly argument by religious fundies in the environuts movement without any base in science. However, ANWAR would only provide about 5 percent of our oil demand by itself that would be not enough. Since the premise is that the world ran out of oil we would have to work from the assumption that there isn't any in ANWAR so it is rather moot.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
Actual REAL efforts to develop alternative energy sources coupled with massive government programs to help people convert from petro using devices to electric power. (electricity is main product of most, altho not all, alternate sources).

There would be more than a little economic dislocation because of increased energy costs but this might be handled by cuts in defense spending and corporate welfare.

What am I saying? Bush would probably invade Iran to get its solar energy capability and order all the scientists who came up with the original study arrested for defeatism in the war on terror. When we finally do run out he'd go on tv and announce his new Faith Based Energy Initiative under which we all Pray Real Hard for Mild Winters and the leader of the Amish is appointed the new Secy of Transportation :rolleyes:
 

DMS

The most obvious answer is that, suddenly,

the world as a whole wouldn't give a %^%$ about the Palestinians. That should be obvious regardless of which side you think is more right in the Middle East.

Economically, it depends on how much time we have to adjust from the point where people really believe we are going to run out. Do we all realize tomorrow that we're out by 2010 or is the realization gradual? Five emergency/martial law type years isn't enough but it's a lot more for rich countries to make the adjustment than poor countries. You'd see telecommuting, rapid construction of nuke plants (more safely in some places than others), and coal use, of course, by those countries with lots of coal. More hydropower by those with water resources, same with natural gas. Much less trade, which screws small countries. Probably starvation in some places as grain shipments overseas have low claim on precious petroleum. Magnetic rail and electric trucks a high priority.

Countries which survive best: Australia, Canada, US.
Worst: the desert oil exporters.
 

fhaessig

I'd add France to the countries which survive best. About 80% of it's electricity production is nuclear and just under 15% is hydrolic. And it's a net electricity exporter beside.

For first world countries, I think the first priority is going to turn agribusiness machinery to electricity. Food production is the first priority.
 

Burton

Banned
There is a scientific debate going on at the moment as to whether oil really is of organic fossil origin. Fields which were thought to have been depleted and were closed for 20 years have found to have \"miraculously\" become fully replenished. The new theory is that oil is of inorganic origin, and may be virtually limitless if pumped out at a reasonable rate.
 

eschaton

I don't know who has seen this site. It's very sensationalistic, and he doesn't discuss the U.S. switching back to coal (which is the most likely thing, sadly), but he refutes a lot of points optimists are making here.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Have any of you read this yet? On Thursday, OPEC's acting Sec'y General announced that oil will hit $80 a barrel sometime within the next two years. They claim that it is unlikely to remain that high for very long, but that a boost to 50-60 dollars a barrel (which is what they're projecting for the next two years or more) will inevitably boost investments to increase supplies and lead to a drop in demand, eventually reducing prices.
 

Ivan Druzhkov

Well, we can probably build more nuclear/hydro/solar/wind plants, so there should still be electricity.

As for vehicles, I could see it going two ways: either towards fuel cells and alternative fuels, or back to steam.

Personally, I think it's more worrying that plastics would disappear if the oil dried up.
 

carlton_bach

Ivan Druzhkov said:
Personally, I think it's more worrying that plastics would disappear if the oil dried up.
Click to expand...

Most plastics are recycleable. And sionce they just don't rot, all we need to do is start excavating all those landfills from the 70s.

Come to think of it, not the kind of job I'd want...
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
carlton_bach said:
Most plastics are recycleable. And sionce they just don't rot, all we need to do is start excavating all those landfills from the 70s.
Click to expand...
Hell, New Jersey alone could keep civilization running. I'm sure a lot of unsolved murder mysteries will be solved in the process.

Just think -- we'd become the "Arabs of Plastics!"
 

Max Sinister

Banned
One question: When exactly do the people discover that oil will run out till 2010? Today? That would be very urgent, maybe too much...

(Funny, I once wanted to write a story about what would happen if the world ran out of oil in 2020 - unprepared. I was 13 at that time.)
 
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