So, WI the Mexican-American War hadn't ocurred in 1846, or would such a conflict between the US & Mexico have been inevitable at some point during that period ?
No Mexican-American War
- Thread starter Melvin Loh
- Start date
(typing from my cellular so forgive the ignored punctuation)
the only way i can see te US not going to war at that particular time would be to avoid the annexation of Texas into the union. armed conflict was inevitable as the anglos were fixated with reaching the pacific and that path was blocked by the mexicans
the only way i can see te US not going to war at that particular time would be to avoid the annexation of Texas into the union. armed conflict was inevitable as the anglos were fixated with reaching the pacific and that path was blocked by the mexicans
Solomaxwell6
Banned
The way I see it, conflict, while not inevitable, is fairly likely. The US had three main avenues of expansion: Mexico (including Texas), the Caribbean, and Canada. Canada is unlikely. It would bring us once more into conflict with Britain, which is a bad thing, especially given finally warming relations. The Caribbean was still largely colonial, meaning it's a bad avenue for expansion. A lot of Spanish colonies, a lot of British colonies... Haiti was a black republic (obviously the Southerners wouldn't exactly like it). I think the Dominican Republic was the only other free Caribbean nation at the time, but that's a relatively small expansion, anyway, and would hardly distract the US from long.
The last possible avenue of expansion, Mexico, is meanwhile fracturing (Texas, Rio Grande, Yucatan...), has an economy in the shithole, and didn't have major European connections like the Caribbean and Canada. So, considering the options... tiny Dominican Republic, black Haiti, European colonies, or large, resource-rich but vulnerable Mexico, the choice is clear. So the two ways I can see the US avoiding war with Mexico is if they either had a cultural shift and wasn't so expansionist (unlikely, but definitely possible) or Mexico just caved and gave in to giving up its claims on the Republic of Mexico (very unlikely... Mexico isn't just going to give up large pieces of land), unless we move the POD back a bit (no independence from Spain, for example).
Even if there isn't an actual war, we'll still see the US gobbling up Mexican breakaway republics (Texas and California, maybe even places like Rio Grande). Not an actual Mexican-American War, but it'll have the same basic results.
Sorry if this doesn't answer your question of effects, but I hope I've emphasized enough how difficult it is to prevent the Mexican-American War, in some form, from occurring.
If there is no War with Mexico and lets say that California becomes its own republic. Is there still an ARW? Would it be sooner or later than 1860?
You mean Civil War I take it?
Probably and likely sooner. Allowing slavery to expand west did buy the Union a few years before the pot boiled over.
Yes, you are correct lothaw. I need to proof my posts better. (I have actually been pondering a scenerio for the ARW the last few days and mixed it up with the ACW)
Thank you, for being easy on me
I think the ACW would be sooner as well. The South would loose political clout in Congress sooner as Texas would not balance out another free state. If Clay is elected in 1844 and I assume he or another Whig is elected in 1848. A Democrat is elected in 1852, but that is the election that fractures the Democrats.
The South says good bye after the 1856 election. What are your thoughts?
Thank you, for being easy on me
I think the ACW would be sooner as well. The South would loose political clout in Congress sooner as Texas would not balance out another free state. If Clay is elected in 1844 and I assume he or another Whig is elected in 1848. A Democrat is elected in 1852, but that is the election that fractures the Democrats.
The South says good bye after the 1856 election. What are your thoughts?
I just thought of a crasy, ASB scenerio for this thread..
Going along the lines that Clay is elected in 1844 and Texas is not admitted intro the Union.
That event, that Texas is not admitted into the Union, sparks the South to leave the Union. The South and Texas combine to form the Confederacy with Rio Grande as the southern border (not recognised by Mexico).
This immediatly places the Confederacy (the break away Southern states and Texas) against both Mexico and the USA. There could be a three way war as the USA now would claim Texas along with all of the Confederate States and declare war on Mexico as well.
This is completely ASB, as Clay may not even get the chance to deal away Texas; a lame duck John Tyler may sign Texas in as a state after being admitted by Congress to make the point mute.
Going along the lines that Clay is elected in 1844 and Texas is not admitted intro the Union.
That event, that Texas is not admitted into the Union, sparks the South to leave the Union. The South and Texas combine to form the Confederacy with Rio Grande as the southern border (not recognised by Mexico).
This immediatly places the Confederacy (the break away Southern states and Texas) against both Mexico and the USA. There could be a three way war as the USA now would claim Texas along with all of the Confederate States and declare war on Mexico as well.
This is completely ASB, as Clay may not even get the chance to deal away Texas; a lame duck John Tyler may sign Texas in as a state after being admitted by Congress to make the point mute.
Yeah, and actually, that's exactly what happened. Texas was admitted before Polk's inauguration.
However, had Tyler believed that admitting Texas would have been an issue with the President-elect, it's likely he wouldn't have pursued it. (in OTL, he consulted with Polk before annexation)
But given an already-admitted Texas at the time of the inauguration of President Clay, I think Clay would have tried to negotiate to avoid war, even if that meant compromising the Rio Grande border. Remember, there was also a threat of war with Britain over Oregon Territory, and I think Clay would have been hesitant to provoke Mexico when a confrontation over Oregon was a possibility.
Clay could have won if James Birney wasn't in the election, and the bulk of Birney's votes (10,000 of Birney's 15,000 votes) in New York had gone to Clay instead.
You would probably need to do something that simultaneously satiates America's lust for territory, while resolving the territorial disputes caused by Texas independence/annexation. I do not think the election of Clay alone, will be enough to curtail manifest destiny indefinitely. However if a treaty was bilaterally signed between the united states and Mexico, which settled the borders of both Texas and Colorado and sold the United states northern California, I believe that the United States could be satisfied.
This would be far from ideal from Mexico's point of view, however it should do much to shut up the war hawks in congress, while giving Mexico the time and money to stabilize itself.
This would be far from ideal from Mexico's point of view, however it should do much to shut up the war hawks in congress, while giving Mexico the time and money to stabilize itself.
Wolfpaw
Banned
A possible POD could be a greater British victory in the War of 1812. Say they're able to annex part of Maine or the Great Lakes region or perhaps some of America's new territories in the Gulf as opposed to the status quo ante bellum that was established with the Treaty of Ghent.
This could evolve into an even more rabid Anglophobia on the part of the Americans. They could evolve a sort of cultural persecution/inferiority complex towards Britain that manifests itself as increased hostility, militancy, and determination to eventually push the "Limey Scourge" out of North America once and for all. So basically the Americans focus way more on the Canadas and the Carribean.
With the US focused on getting rid of the British until the late 1830s, early 1840s (by which time a more militant US goes to war with Britain again after something akin to the Aroostook War goes haywire) Mexico could buy time to sort out its own issues. So by the time the US looks West, Mexico is ready for war or even possibly supported by Britain, France, or other powers worried at an American monopoly over North America and the Caribbean.
This could evolve into an even more rabid Anglophobia on the part of the Americans. They could evolve a sort of cultural persecution/inferiority complex towards Britain that manifests itself as increased hostility, militancy, and determination to eventually push the "Limey Scourge" out of North America once and for all. So basically the Americans focus way more on the Canadas and the Carribean.
With the US focused on getting rid of the British until the late 1830s, early 1840s (by which time a more militant US goes to war with Britain again after something akin to the Aroostook War goes haywire) Mexico could buy time to sort out its own issues. So by the time the US looks West, Mexico is ready for war or even possibly supported by Britain, France, or other powers worried at an American monopoly over North America and the Caribbean.