Historians argue that Hideyoshi's invasions of Míng China and Joseon Korea, though a failure, left China and Korea weak enough for Manchu conquest. What if Hideyoshi decided not to invade?
Hideyoshi never invaded China. His invasions of Korea were one of many factors responsible for the fall of the Ming Dynasty and were far from sufficient, by themselves, to cause the Ming's fall. If Hideyoshi doesn't invade Korea, the Ming might partially or completely collapse by the mid-17th century anyways. But even if he does invade China, the Ming might still survive. I would argue that a point of divergence in early 1644 might even allow the Ming to survive in southern China.Historians argue that Hideyoshi's invasions of Míng China and Joseon Korea, though a failure, left China and Korea weak enough for Manchu conquest. What if Hideyoshi decided not to invade?
How about Shùn taking Míng's place once it collapses? In one of my previous threads, "Manchu Invasion of China Repelled" (https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=335139), user Seleucus believed that a Shùn conquest of Manchuria was reasonable. Plausible result: Korea, having also resisted the Manchu Invasions, establishes a close trade and diplomatic relationship with Shùn China.Hideyoshi never invaded China. His invasions of Korea were one of many factors responsible for the fall of the Ming Dynasty and were far from sufficient, by themselves, to cause the Ming's fall. If Hideyoshi doesn't invade Korea, the Ming might partially or completely collapse by the mid-17th century anyways. But even if he does invade China, the Ming might still survive. I would argue that a point of divergence in early 1644 might even allow the Ming to survive in southern China.
Therefore, I think the bigger issue is whether an intact Korea might be able to resist the Manchus better.
I would imagine Toyotomi control over Japan would be stronger, the clans most loyal to the Toyotomi were the ones severely weekend by the invasions.