No Iranian Revolution, Effects on Afghanistan ?

[Brahman]

Iranian Revolution and War in Afghanistan were two of the most important events that happened in the late 20th century, it radically changed both the Middle East as well as Islam and set the stage for conflict in the post cold war era, but ironically, both did not have much influence on each other despite occurring in the same time period and being neighbours to each other.

How would things change of one of the key events did not occur, more specifically what if Iranian Revolution did not happen, how would things change in Afghanistan in Particular. Would USA now use Iran rather than Pakistan to fund rebels in Afghanistan, how would conflict in Afghanistan play out with a US aligned Iran ?

 

[Brahman]

Bump, No One ?
This are some effects I see happening -

1. An Imperial Iran would be used to Fund rebels in Afghanistan alongside Pakistan in Afghanistan
2. With Iran being available, USA would not be so dependent on Pakistan on funding Rebels, infact Iran might be the more preferred ally due to it being considered a better and more trustable ally
3. Iran would not fund Islamists, infact they would fund Nationalists, but Cultural and Ethnic Nationalists over any Islamist like Pakistan did, as Imperial Iran would not want Islamists to be inspired back home
4. Due to more rebels fighting against the Soviet, they might realize and retreat earlier than OTL
5. Afghan Civil war would be more in lines of Iran backed Nationalists and Pakistan backed Islamists

 

[walmart]

With Iran being available, USA would not be so dependent on Pakistan on funding Rebels, infact Iran might be the more preferred ally due to it being considered a better and more trustable ally

Pakistan is still going to be the main route due to geography.

Iran would not fund Islamists, infact they would fund Nationalists, but Cultural and Ethnic Nationalists over any Islamist like Pakistan did, as Imperial Iran would not want Islamists to be inspired back home

Islamists were also certainly going to end up as the dominant faction in Afghanistan. The Shah isn't going have any issues with aiding Afghan Islamists as they lack connections with the Iran's Islamists. In addition Shah up until his overthrow was more worried about communist than Islamists.

 

[Brahman]

Pakistan is still going to be the main route due to geography.

Yeah Pakistan is going to be more important due to geography, but Iran would also now be a significant funder of the rebels, especially coinsuring how much Influence the Persian Language has on the people. It could devolve into a situation where Iran Supports Farsi Speaking groups and ethnicites and Pakistan supports Pashtun Speaking groups and ethnicities

Islamists were also certainly going to end up as the dominant faction in Afghanistan. The Shah isn't going have any issues with aiding Afghan Islamists as they lack connections with the Iran's Islamists. In addition Shah up until his overthrow was more worried about communist than Islamists.

Wouldn't there be a fear of blowback from Afghanistan to Iran by Shah, also why wouldnt he try to fund Nationalist rebels ?

 

[walmart]

also why wouldnt he try to fund Nationalist rebels ?

He might in the beginning but once the Islamists come to dominate. It’s going to make a difference as long as the Soviets leave .

 

[Brahman]

He might in the beginning but once the Islamists come to dominate. It’s going to make a difference as long as the Soviets leave .

How wpuld post soviet Afghan civil war play out ? Would Iran and Pakistan fund opposite sides