No Indochinese War - effect on Algeria

[La Rouge Beret]

I was re-reading 'A Savage War of Peace: Algeria 1954 - 1962' and it argued that if the French had offered a greater degree of autonomy from 1945 / 1946 the Algerian war of independence would have been avoided.

Now if the first Indochinese War has been averted, is the Algerian conflict possible to avoid? Would we still see Algeria as part of Metropolitan France?

 

[katchen]

It is possible. It is also likely to be a very different France by now than the France we are used to. In 1960, France's population was 46 million and Algeria's population was 11 million. If Algeria was fully part of Metropolitan France, the combined population would be 57 million of which about 25% of France would be Muslim.
By 2013, if nothing changed, Metropolitan France would have a population of 65 million (3 million Muslims) and Algeria a population of 37 million. A grand total of almost 100 million people of which only 3/5 are European Christian. And by then, immigration back and forth will have progressed so much that separation would be almost impossible. French identity would be inextricably linked with Islam even without a Muslim majority. And the combined nation would be the single largest nation in Europe with probably a great deal of France's industry located on the Algerian Coast since Algeria has major coal deposits on the coast and major iron, copper and uranium deposits in the Hoaggar Mountains as well as oil. Whether the EU would be together under the circumstances is unclear. Nor is it clear if Tunisia would be independent or whether it would have been absorbed into Algeria-France. Morocco woud likely be indepandent. Libya might still be part of Italy.And the border of French West African colonies that became independent might have been drawn further south too, with possibly Mauretania and northern Mali and Niger becoming part of Algeria-France because of it's low population, prospect of resources and need to build infrastructure across the Sahara to access the rest of the African nations.

 

[iori]

Byt 1946/7 the only way to avoid a war is to give Algeria independence within the next few years or provide it a great deal of autonomy with the promise of independence within a decade or two.

The AIW is'nt something that just happened, it was the result of a culmination of events that had their start in the late 20's and got worse from 1936 onwards, if you want to preserve French Algeria you need to change the way France treated it in the Interwar period by atleast starting to provide equal rights (legally speaking ALL Algerians were supposed to be, since Algeria was part of Metropolitan France) and provide some degree of autonomy.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Byt 1946/7 the only way to avoid a war is to give Algeria independence within the next few years or provide it a great deal of autonomy with the promise of independence within a decade or two.

The AIW is'nt something that just happened, it was the result of a culmination of events that had their start in the late 20's and got worse from 1936 onwards, if you want to preserve French Algeria you need to change the way France treated it in the Interwar period by atleast starting to provide equal rights (legally speaking ALL Algerians were supposed to be, since Algeria was part of Metropolitan France) and provide some degree of autonomy.

Okay, let's go with the second solution of greater amount of autonomy and independence within two decades, call it the Philippines solution. I am just trying to get the feel of a French government that would look at the precarious situation and decide to husband their supply of soldiers and treasure.

 

[katchen]

Or do the sort of thing that the Turks and the Greeks were doing to each other during the interwar period and simply deport (relocate) the Algerian Muslim population to League of Mandated Syria. Raw as it is, France being a Great Power, France can get away with it.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

I am looking at the impact in the post WW II environment, and this if for my TL.

 

[clifton]

Or do the sort of thing that the Turks and the Greeks were doing to each other during the interwar period and simply deport (relocate) the Algerian Muslim population to League of Mandated Syria. Raw as it is, France being a Great Power, France can get away with it.

That's is just insane. While with coastel areas it could work, but it won't work with the rest of Algeria. You will get a costly colonial war, that will blacken Franch reputation. Just cause France is a great power it doesn't means that it isn't vulnerable to the bad publicity.

 

[aktarian]

I think it's possible to offer Algeria greater degree of autonomy and combine that with military victory. If resources, national will and prestige aren't wasted in Vietnam they can be used in Algeria. It's safe to say French people cared more about Algeria than Vietnam so they would be willing to "stick it out" to ensure Algeria stays french.

Combine autonomy with some divide-and-rule, keep coastal areas with largest french population closely linked to metropolitan France and give rest autonomy.

 

[euromellows]

I personally think if Algeria has some sort of autonomy it will lead to a Rhodesian-type situation. The first hint the Colons get that Paris is considering negotiations with the FLN they will break-away. If they already have a local Government apparatus and an autonomous military force under their command it will be easy to achieve. In such a situation, like the Rhodesians, I don't see France shooting at their own. The break-away will not be suppressed.

Over the long term Algeria will be a state under siege, but they have the demographics to hold out and survive at least until the fall of Communism.

 

[Julius Vogel]

I personally think if Algeria has some sort of autonomy it will lead to a Rhodesian-type situation. The first hint the Colons get that Paris is considering negotiations with the FLN they will break-away. If they already have a local Government apparatus and an autonomous military force under their command it will be easy to achieve. In such a situation, like the Rhodesians, I don't see France shooting at their own. The break-away will not be suppressed.

Over the long term Algeria will be a state under siege, but they have the demographics to hold out and survive at least until the fall of Communism.

Who would support them though? Who would be their South Africa?

The neighbouring states are unlikely to be sympathetic and it is possible that a blockade could develop

 

[La Rouge Beret]

I think it's possible to offer Algeria greater degree of autonomy and combine that with military victory. If resources, national will and prestige aren't wasted in Vietnam they can be used in Algeria. It's safe to say French people cared more about Algeria than Vietnam so they would be willing to "stick it out" to ensure Algeria stays french.

Combine autonomy with some divide-and-rule, keep coastal areas with largest french population closely linked to metropolitan France and give rest autonomy.

Honestly that is my take as well with regard to the French in Algeria. Perhaps we could have a partition ala Northern Ireland in Algeria - which would be bloody interesting really.

 

[Archibald]

I was re-reading 'A Savage War of Peace: Algeria 1954 - 1962' and it argued that if the French had offered a greater degree of autonomy from 1945 / 1946 the Algerian war of independence would have been avoided.

Now if the first Indochinese War has been averted, is the Algerian conflict possible to avoid? Would we still see Algeria as part of Metropolitan France?

Avoid this and this and it should butterfly both wars...

 

[euromellows]

Who would support them though? Who would be their South Africa?

The neighbouring states are unlikely to be sympathetic and it is possible that a blockade could develop

There are quite a few candidates actually. South Africa is one, Portugal, Spain and Israel are others. If the FLN has the perception of being supplied by Moscow then even America is likely to continue trading with Algeria (particularly when the significant Oil Reserves are activated).

However after the fall of Communism the regime's days are numbered.

At least this is the tack I take in my own timeline.

 

[Julius Vogel]

I don't see that South Africa has any real capacity or will to help out in any meaningful way a pariah state a continent away.

The others, maybe. But what if there is a blockade like with UDI? The states on your list will have no will or means to avoid that unless their patrons are in favour.

 

[euromellows]

Well I'm not so sure a UDI would be all that unpopular in France. To use the Rhodesian analogy even in OTL the Conservatives were damn close to doing a deal with Smith - he was just too stubborn to shift his position. In Algeria the Colons demographic position is far better, and their potential oil wealth is too big to ignore. My feeling is that an initial UDI would be controversial, but over time might even be accepted in France - at least until the next electoral cycle brings the Conservatives into power. Remember that in OTL whenever there was controversy the Colons brought down the Government pre De Gaulle. I'm assuming here they no longer have Metropole representation but their own autonomous assemblies.

Any attempt to blockade is going to fail - after all, if they (France) is not prepared to remove by force the illegal government then their heart isn't really in it.

I imagine Francoist Spain and Salazar Portugal would be big trading partners. South African 'assistance' wouldn't be so decisive (given it is, as you say, over a continent away) but it would offer another important market to trade with.

 

[Dunois]

After the war it is too late to butterfly away the Algerian war of independence. The best scenario is one with an independent bicultural Algeria having close links with France and where the Pied Noirs stay and prosper.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Or do the sort of thing that the Turks and the Greeks were doing to each other during the interwar period and simply deport (relocate) the Algerian Muslim population to League of Mandated Syria. Raw as it is, France being a Great Power, France can get away with it.

Just because you think it's a great idea doesn't mean it is. As if the native Algerians couldn't have even MORE reason to hate the French.

 

[kung Zog]

Or do the sort of thing that the Turks and the Greeks were doing to each other during the interwar period and simply deport (relocate) the Algerian Muslim population to League of Mandated Syria. Raw as it is, France being a Great Power, France can get away with it.

the result: an extremely brutal civil war, widespread terror acts in metropolitan France and USA being overshadowed by France as the semifascist cold war state in the public mind. France as we know it would be completely shattered.