No Blitz, no area bombing

[Derek Jackson]

In OTL the Nazis accidentally bombed London in, I think, late August 1940.

Churchill ordered a raid on Berlin.

The Nazis then switched from attacking Fighter Comand to killing Civilians.

During the rest of the War Britain (and to a lesser extent the US) gave a high priority to terror bombing.


If the accidental bombing had not taken place the enemy (I am a Brit) would have concentrated on the potentially effective approach of knocking out Fighter Comand.

I do not think they would have managed it by Mid October. By that date weather would make an invasion impossible.

By the following year Britain was building more aircraft and training more pilots than Germany.


What effect would that have had on allied strategy?

 

[Peter Cowan]

No Blitz would have meant continuing attacks on Fighter Command's airfields. However, all that would have happened was that the airfields to the south of London would have been abandoned. RAF fields north of the Thames were outside of German fighter cover meaning unescorted bombers for Leigh-Mallory's Big Wings to intercept

There would have been damage to the RAF control systems but this was pretty much shot to hell before September 7th due to damage to the vital sector stations. Ironically, having no aircraft on them would have meant the Germans leaving them alone - German understanding of the control systems used by Fighter Command was very poor.

The RAF would retreat and air control over the extreme south east would have been lost.

Then, Sealion ?

The Blitz was a propaganda coup for the British. Smashing Sealion (most commentators accept that this would have been a German disaster) would have been manna from heaven.

 

[David S Poepoe]

I think your forgetting that the precedence has already been set by the German bombing of Rotterdam in May 1940. Area bombing would have been eventually adopted, it seems to be a natural progression in the concept of Total War.

 

[Melvin Loh]

I agree with David, the LUFTWAFFE had been the 1st to pioneer area bombing a la Rotterdam May 1940 and earlier too- remember the Spanish CW and Guernica etc ? A natural progression for RAF Bomber Command and the US 8th AF to have made during the course of WWII.

 

[zoomar]

I think everybody's right.

In the BoB it is quite possible that the accidental bombing of London and Churchill's response led to the campaign shift that cost the Luftwaffe any chance for air superiority over southern England. However, if Sealion was undertaken (a BIG if, I agree) the Germans would probably eventually turn to mass area bombing of civilian centers if British resistence was stiffer than expected.

This has little bearing on the later war, as both the RAF and USAAF were dominated by proponents of strategic bombing of industrial and population centers. Unless the Germans inexplicably became Italians and stopped resisting, Berlin and Frankfurt would be getting it everynight and everyday. The US would of course pretend they were not deliberately bombing civilians, but "Bomber" Harris would revel in it.

 

[bill_bruno]

Night bombing would have to be city-busting

During much of the war, many of the raids had to be at night because fighter cover wasn't available for longer-range raids. The dubious accuracy of night attacks means that those raids had to be area raids.