What if aboriginal settlers reached New Zealand this early instead of the island only settled by Austronesians about 1300 AD. What would happen to the Megafauna that historically persisted until ablut 1500 AD ? Would human settlement have the same devasting effect this early ? What would happen to the hypothetical human settlers given that they isolate for this long on very far off in the Pacific ? Which ethnic group could be realistic in this scenario ? What would be the ecological and genetic consequences ? Could speciation of human settlers occur ?
No speciation of humans-not nearly enough time for something that major!
Megafauna-the great eagles are probably doomed, as are multiple moa species. However, IOTL Polynesian rats may have been a significant contributing factor to the destruction of native bird life in New Zealand. While Australia did have native rat species, none seems to have become as invasive as the Polynesian rat, so it is possible that ITTL some megafauna species, like the smaller alpine varieties of moa, could survive the initial human contact though later contact with Polynesian and Eurasian colonists could wipe those birds out.
The people of New Zealand ITTL would be hunter-gatherers, a small and widely-dispersed population living off of fishing/seafood and wild plants. The last time this question was brought up in a thread, fern roots were suggested as a potential staple food for the hunter gatherers in the interior. Their culture could look like that of the Aboriginal Tasmanians, their probable ancestors and closest human population. However, there's definitely environmental factors that lead to their culture differentiating-no native mammals, and much more rugged mountains and colder latitudes would create different pressures and incentives on their existence.
IMO, with the largest species of moa probably extinct and New Zealand existing on the fringe of Polynesian agriculture, we would not see Polynesians replacing the Aboriginal population wholesale, but the north shore of New Zealand's north island could see farming colonies of Polynesians develop and intermarrying with the aboriginal population, creating a hybrid culture.
