Do you have a source for this in particular?IIRC the areas of B-L (plus Belarus and say Kuban, plus Finland getting the rest of Karelia plus Kola) were about 40% of Soviet industry and population as of 1940.
Yep, he was also against going to war in Poland, thinking they could have gotten Danzig with diplomacy, and also against war with the US. Apparently he lectured Hitler for hours about not going to war with the Soviets in January 1941 and thought he had convinced Hitler only to find out later Hitler decided to attack anyway.
Part of it sure, he was actually involved in the diplomacy and spoke english. Which makes his willingness to follow Hitler all the more inexplicable.I've read that Goering was more knowlegable of the overall international situation and politics than Hitler (not too hard, tbh...), because he had traveled and lived abroad. That might explain this?...
I'm going off memory in that statement, but I'll see what I can find.Do you have a source for this in particular?
The question is whether WW2 as we know it even happens. Does Japan still attack the US with the USSR out of the war? Does the rump USSR fall into civil war or does Stalin go on a purge rampage to deal with 'sabotage from within' and try to head off a coup? Does the US even get in the war or does Britain get knocked out with the USSR out of the war by 1942? Many things would change several years out so it is difficult to say that 'yes, for sure Stalin would get his revenge'.Would the Soviets re-engage the Reich, once it became clear that the WAllies are knocking on the proverbial door? Even if it's just to re-occupy the Ukraine, Belarus, and possibly the Baltics, I'd imagine that as the WAllies push into Western Europe, the Reich will strip (as much as they can) the Eastern frontier to defend Germany. Even if Stalin is removed from the picture, the Soviets will probably recognize that if the Reich is going down, it'd be much easier to reclaim the territories lost in a Reich-Soviet peace deal if they occupy them militarily first, rather than coming hat-in-hand to the negotiating table post-war.
The question is whether WW2 as we know it even happens. Does Japan still attack the US with the USSR out of the war? Does the rump USSR fall into civil war or does Stalin go on a purge rampage to deal with 'sabotage from within' and try to head off a coup? Does the US even get in the war or does Britain get knocked out with the USSR out of the war by 1942? Many things would change several years out so it is difficult to say that 'yes, for sure Stalin would get his revenge'.
At that point it is still more than likely given how advanced planning was, but the issue is that with the USSR now unoccupied in Europe, even with it being badly maimed, it is still a threat of sorts it wasn't while at war with Germany. There is also the concern that the new German leadership, not nearly as willing to fight the US as Hitler, will not be willing to support Japan having just won a war against the USSR unexpectedly. Goering did not want to DoW the US after the Japanese attack, but Hitler did anyway; with Goering as Führer, he would likely tell Japan no if they asked for his support, as he was not treaty bound to do so and Goering did not want further escalations because he understood better than Hitler what a threat the US was in 1941.Is it unreasonable to assume it even more likely than OTL that Japan gets in?
Southern Indochina has already been occupied, Japan has already been embargoed.
Soviet Union has suffered enormous defeats.
Soviet Union still has to prepare for a Germany that might go round 2 on them.
Germany is now free to focus on the med, submarines, enlarging the 1942 Blitz, things that would only help Japan.
Perhaps even transit rights for goods to/from Germany/Japan could be negotiated across the now neutral Soviet Union.
Would the Soviets re-engage the Reich, once it became clear that the WAllies are knocking on the proverbial door?
At that point it is still more than likely given how advanced planning was, but the issue is that with the USSR now unoccupied in Europe, even with it being badly maimed, it is still a threat of sorts it wasn't while at war with Germany. There is also the concern that the new German leadership, not nearly as willing to fight the US as Hitler, will not be willing to support Japan having just won a war against the USSR unexpectedly. Goering did not want to DoW the US after the Japanese attack, but Hitler did anyway; with Goering as Führer, he would likely tell Japan no if they asked for his support, as he was not treaty bound to do so and Goering did not want further escalations because he understood better than Hitler what a threat the US was in 1941.
Depends, there are few things that are total absolutes in alternate history...but it is more likely that not if Japan attacks. I'm not 100% sure if war would break out if there are American merchant ships being sunk in the Atlantic in the British zone (the declared war zone around britain), but if the Germans get into the US declared exclusion zone, yeah war is probably happening. So the question is whether Goering then restricts the Uboats and what that means. But if the US is out of the war they can ship whatever they want to the Brits...but due does that mean Britain is going to want to continue on if the German position on the continent is unassailable given that Stalin has been knocked out as a belligerent for probably a few years and invading without the US is not possible? At best without the US, but even with LL, the best they can hope for is a stalemate and to defend Egypt and perhaps take Libya at some point. What happens if in 1942 then Malta falls, the US still is out, and Rommel invades Egypt, while the Blitz picks up, the blockade is mooted by Soviet tribute deliveries of oil and metals, while extraction of food and labor from the East is enough for Nazi needs? How long do you keep fighting for no gain when negotiation is the only way out? Do they keep going in the hope that the US gets involved or just continue on to maintain the 'forever war' 1984 style?Even if Germany (either under Goering or a Hitler who for whatever reason decided to take what he could get with the Soviets) avoids declaring war on the US, it's basically an inevitability. By November (when this peace would be implemented) things were probably too far gone for Japan to avoid war with the US, and once the UK becomes involved it's simply a matter of the US shipping tons of war materiel to the British which will totally, we promise be used against the Japanese, not the Germans. All it takes is one gung ho U-Boat captain and the US is at war with Germany.
Depends, there are few things that are total absolutes in alternate history...but it is more likely that not if Japan attacks. I'm not 100% sure if war would break out if there are American merchant ships being sunk in the Atlantic in the British zone (the declared war zone around britain), but if the Germans get into the US declared exclusion zone, yeah war is probably happening. So the question is whether Goering then restricts the Uboats and what that means. But if the US is out of the war they can ship whatever they want to the Brits...but due does that mean Britain is going to want to continue on if the German position on the continent is unassailable given that Stalin has been knocked out as a belligerent for probably a few years and invading without the US is not possible? At best without the US, but even with LL, the best they can hope for is a stalemate and to defend Egypt and perhaps take Libya at some point. What happens if in 1942 then Malta falls, the US still is out, and Rommel invades Egypt, while the Blitz picks up, the blockade is mooted by Soviet tribute deliveries of oil and metals, while extraction of food and labor from the East is enough for Nazi needs? How long do you keep fighting for no gain when negotiation is the only way out? Do they keep going in the hope that the US gets involved or just continue on to maintain the 'forever war' 1984 style?
Depends, there are few things that are total absolutes in alternate history...but it is more likely that not if Japan attacks. I'm not 100% sure if war would break out if there are American merchant ships being sunk in the Atlantic in the British zone (the declared war zone around britain), but if the Germans get into the US declared exclusion zone, yeah war is probably happening. So the question is whether Goering then restricts the Uboats and what that means. But if the US is out of the war they can ship whatever they want to the Brits...but due does that mean Britain is going to want to continue on if the German position on the continent is unassailable given that Stalin has been knocked out as a belligerent for probably a few years and invading without the US is not possible? At best without the US, but even with LL, the best they can hope for is a stalemate and to defend Egypt and perhaps take Libya at some point. What happens if in 1942 then Malta falls, the US still is out, and Rommel invades Egypt, while the Blitz picks up, the blockade is mooted by Soviet tribute deliveries of oil and metals, while extraction of food and labor from the East is enough for Nazi needs? How long do you keep fighting for no gain when negotiation is the only way out? Do they keep going in the hope that the US gets involved or just continue on to maintain the 'forever war' 1984 style?
*EDIT* Even if the Reich manages to bring the Soviets to the table and get some kind of peace deal from the UK (which is very difficult, given that any British peace offer would have to include Germany giving up its gains in Western Europe, which is unacceptable to the Reich, and then you're back at square one), any peace would be far from permanent, but rather a chance for the UK to take a breath, further re-arm, and then re-enage the Reich (along with the Soviets, most likely) in the mid-to-late 1940's. There's pretty much zero chance the US and the UK would allow the Nazi's to maintain domination over Europe; it's just a question of when they chose to invade and dismantle the Reich, not if.
As part of a deal, if Germany can extract an intact Maikop that is worth a lot since obtaining an intact oil producing area by conquest isn't happening due to sabotage.
Things the Germans should want:
Nikopol magnesium mines
Maikop oil (I am assuming Grozny and Baku are unobtainable by negotiation)
Galacian oil of course.
Estonian oil shale. (especially if can't get Maikop)
A big chunk of grain producing areas of Ukraine.
I can see a deal where Germany gets Baltic states. Most of Ukraine to Germany (Donetz basin back to Soviets in exchange Maikop and Kuban), Smolensk back to Soviets. Crimea to Germany. Minsk could even go back to Soviets if necessary to get them to make peace.
Axis could occupy line from Odessa to Orsha to Narva. IF they had planned and eliminated large part of Soviet Black Sea fleet they could occupy Crimea and then the Soviet naval bases of Kuban region, ship oil and grain eliminating some of the logistical problems.
Germans doesn't need the oil of the Caucasus to survive, they did that IOTL for years despite being pushed back. The oil of the Caucasus is highly helpful to have though. They don't need to turn over any of the oil producing regions in the peace, though the Nazis can demand a fixed amount as reparations or whatever to avoid the war continuing. Without LL, which is not coming to the Soviets if they exit the war, then Stalin really has no choice but to make such deliveries if he agrees to the dealIt's too much of a zero sum game for there to be any peace deal. Either Germany gets the resources necessary to circumvent the British blockade, in which case the Soviet war effort is crippled and Germany re-invades later; or the USSR keeps hold over its vital strategic resources and Germany just blew its one shot at winning the war. Plus, Germany kind of violated a non aggression pact to invade so there is zero trust between parties.
Basically, Germany needs oil or their military grinds to a halt, and what incentive does Stalin have to hand over Grozny to Germany fully intact when the Wehrmacht can't even take Rostov?
Germans doesn't need the oil of the Caucasus to survive, they did that IOTL for years despite being pushed back.
They don't need to turn over any of the oil producing regions in the peace, though the Nazis can demand a fixed amount as reparations or whatever to avoid the war continuing. Without LL, which is not coming to the Soviets if they exit the war, then Stalin really has no choice but to make such deliveries if he agrees to the deal
The whole reason Germany launched Barbarossa in the first place was because they couldn't depend on Soviet oil shipments forever. If peace is signed, the Red Army finishes its modernisation unmolested and now Stalin can cut off the oil any time he chooses, with the military balance now making a conquest of the Caucasus impossible.