Napoleonic Succession (circa 1808-10) Question

Who would succeed Napoleon?

  • Joseph

    Votes: 38 69.1%
  • Louis (or the Beauharnais faction generally)

    Votes: 5 9.1%
  • Murat

    Votes: 2 3.6%
  • someone else

    Votes: 6 10.9%
  • depends on when (within said 17 months)

    Votes: 4 7.3%

  • Total voters
    55
Davout was France's best Marshal, and Eugene was baton-worthy in his own right, so in terms of generaling that combination would have an advantage.
I feel that its unlikely that Eugene would actually attempt to take the French throne considering how Napoleon specifically made Joseph his heir and then deliberately spread out his dynasty attempting to legitimize it as one of Europe's new Royal Houses. Eugene if anything would probably go for the Italian crown instead.
 
Wikipedia said:

Napoleon kept [Napoléon Louis Bonaparte] in his own court, and he even had him named the heir to the French throne prior to the birth of his own son.
Is this the best compromise? Louis will not object to his own son taking the throne. Joseph, who only had daughters (ineligible for the throne), may consent if Boy-Emperor Louis marries his eldest daughter to ensure the throne eventually passes to his direct descendants (Napoléon Louis Bonaparte did marry her IOTL). The Napoleon-sized elephant in the room is that Boy-Emperor Louis is only five years old. Who becomes the regent/power behind the throne is up in the air.
 
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a common myth. The actual reason for Eugène's refusal of the Swedish throne was because it needed him to change his religion. He probably wasn't a devout Catholic, but certainly "more devout" than someone like Murat, Fouché (both of whom had started in the clergy IIRC) and Bernadotte.
Well, quite possibly. Anyway, Bernadotte had a “perfect” excuse (as always 😜) for his conversion: he was from the country of Henry of Navarre so, while being a Catholic, he was somewhere deep inside a true Huguenote willing to play Henry’s trick in the opposite direction. 😂

Fouche was not exactly in the clergy: he was for a while teaching in a number of the religious colleges. Murat was studying in a religious seminary before enlisting into a cavalry regiment. None of them was a member of the clergy. Bernadotte, IIRC, was married to Desire Clary by a civic marriage and never pretended to be excessively religious.
 
Given Bernadotte's support to Joseph, would Davout support Eugene out of spite in a civil war scenario?

Davout was France's best Marshal, and Eugene was baton-worthy in his own right, so in terms of generaling that combination would have an advantage.
The issue is not that simple because general needs a loyal army. Option with Eugene means unconstitutional coup violating Napoleon’s explicit will. So the question is how many troops would support such a coup? We are talking 1806-10 so, until 1809 Lannes is still around and it is an open question who is the best marshal but the main problem for Davout & Eugene in that scenario is that, while being talented, Davout also was an obnoxious a—hole almost universally disliked in the army (add a strong disciplinarian to the reasons for dislike by his subordinates) and very unpopular among his colleagues. How many troops would follow him and how many marshals would join him in the case of anti-constitutional coup? Plus, he did not have any political connections.

Eugene’s military career as a high-level commander within this time frame only started: he was placed in charge of the Italian army only during the War of 5th Coalition (1809) with MacDonald and some other experienced generals as his advisors and performance was not overly impressive. If Napoleon wanted to make him a marshal he had plenty of opportunities. The same goes for the political connections in France.
 
Likely one of Joseph's daughters as a new wife for Fernando VII (instead of Lucien's as was originally proposed)?
Don't know... Charlotte, Lucien's daughter by Christine Boyer, was the only one (nearly) of-age, and she may have been a bit problematic as there seems to have been relatively few people she actually liked :p Joseph's eldest still had a ways to go before she was marriageable, and in any case I think he liked the idea of keeping them "in the family" (as uncomfortable as many of us are with first-cousin marriage these days, things were a bit different then...) - it at least could help to ensure that his bloodline remained "in the succession" in some form, even if he had no sons himself....
 
Given Bernadotte's support to Joseph, would Davout support Eugene out of spite in a civil war scenario?

Davout was France's best Marshal, and Eugene was baton-worthy in his own right, so in terms of generaling that combination would have an advantage.
Here's one thing to consider though... would Eugene even play along with a scheme to coup Nap's clearly designated successor? From everything I've read about him, I don't believe he would...
 
Here's one thing to consider though... would Eugene even play along with a scheme to coup Nap's clearly designated successor? From everything I've read about him, I don't believe he would...
Yeah that's the thing. He was loyal to Napoleon to the bitter end and then some. He essentially viewed Napoleon as a father figure and carried out Napoleon's whims very well in Italy. That's kind of why in my tl, after Napoleon's death at Leipzig, I had him fight on against the Austrian and Sardinian invasions and only surrendering when it was clear that there was no chance to salvage the Italian Kingdom.
 
Here's one thing to consider though... would Eugene even play along with a scheme to coup Nap's clearly designated successor? From everything I've read about him, I don't believe he would...
Would not make sense to risk what he was going to get legitimately and without any trouble (crown of Italy) to try to get something he was explicitly not entitled to against a strong military and civic opposition (why would the Senate and leading cabinet members support him?).
 
Yeah that's the thing. He was loyal to Napoleon to the bitter end and then some. He essentially viewed Napoleon as a father figure and carried out Napoleon's whims very well in Italy. That's kind of why in my tl, after Napoleon's death at Leipzig, I had him fight on against the Austrian and Sardinian invasions and only surrendering when it was clear that there was no chance to salvage the Italian Kingdom.
Yes, IIRC, when Napoleon was planning to leave an army in 1812, Eugene’s candidacy as his substitute was brought up but Napoleon rejected it because Murat was more senior both in the title and in military rank (*).

_______
(*) Temptation for a nasty remark regarding one of my “favorite” personages is too strong to resist (😜); candidacy of Davout AFAIK was not considered because after Krasny his reputation suffered a serious blow: Ney was openly accusing Davout in intentionally abandoning him to the Russians (in the scenario more obvious and considerably more dangerous than one about which Davout was bitching after Auerstadt). Of course, the mitigating circumstances could be brought up but not for a person who always had been intolerant to others. I wonder if Napoleon’s decision to keep Davout in 1813 in Hamburg (aka, pretty much useless) was a byproduct of this episode.
 
it at least could help to ensure that his bloodline remained "in the succession" in some form, even if he had no sons himself....
problem with that is that it turns the Bonapartes into Targaeryens that have very few links to their so-called allies. Napoléon was considering for Christine for Nando as early as 1808, and had Nappy not stripped his gears for the Spaniards, it would've ostensibly happened.
 
problem with that is that it turns the Bonapartes into Targaeryens that have very few links to their so-called allies. Napoléon was considering for Christine for Nando as early as 1808, and had Nappy not stripped his gears for the Spaniards, it would've ostensibly happened.
That could be true, but fortunately some of the subsequent Bonapartes were quite prolific, providing ample opportunities on down the line for strategic marriages - which in any case would turn out to be a rather overrated strategy as far as peacekeeping goes (Willy, Nicky and Georgie say hi :)) .
Heh... when I 1st read your post I thought "'Targaeryens'? Is that some Armenian royal lineage I'd never heard of?" Yes, I had to look it up :openedeyewink:
 
while this is true, the "most prolific" was Joseph's daughter who wed Lucien's son. Lucien's line is specifically included from the succession, so it'd be a waste of a marriage TTL, no?
Well, IOTL Charles Lucien didn't marry Zenaide until 1822, so there's a lot that could happen in the intervening decade or so... and while Nap did exclude Lucien and his lineage, he had also originally excluded Jerome and his lineage from the succession - at some point Nap himself had restored Jerome, while Lucien remained on his shit list. So, it's not impossible that with Nap out of the picture as per the OP, that Lucien and his line could be restored as well...
 
Thank you very much for the great amount of valuable information.

But where do you get the bit about Bernadotte being close to Joseph?
Well, it is “all over the place” and probably can be found in any Bernadotte’s biography. In one that I pointed to, for example. Joseph more than once acted as an intermediary between him and Napoleon. Their wives also had been very close (Desire kept pestering Louis XVIII with the requests to let Julie to return to France). Joseph’s estate at Point Breeze had “two splendid Etruscan vases of Porphyry 3 ft. high & 2 in diameter presented by the Queen of Sweden”. But he was a close friend not only to Joseph but to the rest of the family (was the best man at Caroline’s wedding, Joseph was a godfather of his son, Joseph François Oscar Bernadotte, and Napoleon presumably took credit for offering “Oscar” part) and, Napoleon considered him as such. To quote from wiki:

“while Napoleon embarked on his summer Italian Campaign, where he ultimately prevailed at the Battle of Marengo, he left Bernadotte not far from Paris with an army. In his farewell note to Bernadotte on his way to Italy, Napoleon wrote: "I am going to fling myself once more into the hazards of war. We do not know how it may turn out. If I fall, you will find yourself with 40,000 men at the gates of Paris. In your hands will be the fate of the Republic." As Bernadotte was brother-in-law to Joseph and close friends with his other brothers and sisters, Napoleon is thought to have been considering the welfare of his family in the possible event of his death on the battlefield, as well as the future of the country, by leaving his erstwhile rival in a position to seize the reins of government as, of his former rivals, only Bernadotte had the political and military skill and popularity to maintain the Republic.”
 
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I feel that its unlikely that Eugene would actually attempt to take the French throne considering how Napoleon specifically made Joseph his heir and then deliberately spread out his dynasty attempting to legitimize it as one of Europe's new Royal Houses. Eugene if anything would probably go for the Italian crown instead.
Joseph would be Napoleon’s heir in France while Eugene will receive the Kingdom of Italy as his own.
Bernadotte would support Joseph and most likely Lucien also will be restored to the succession here.
Is this the best compromise? Louis will not object to his own son taking the throne. Joseph, who only had daughters (ineligible for the throne), may consent if Boy-Emperor Louis marries his eldest daughter to ensure the throne eventually passes to his direct descendants (Napoléon Louis Bonaparte did marry her IOTL). The Napoleon-sized elephant in the room is that Boy-Emperor Louis is only five years old. Who becomes the regent/power behind the throne is up in the air.
That is the likeliest alternative to Joseph taking the crown himself, if he is NOT seen as popular enough OR if Josephine is too much popular and supported for making Joseph’s succession possible.
I can see Josephine becoming regent for her grandson (supported by Napoleon’s ministers and officers).
Likely one of Joseph's daughters as a new wife for Fernando VII (instead of Lucien's as was originally proposed)?
Don't know... Charlotte, Lucien's daughter by Christine Boyer, was the only one (nearly) of-age, and she may have been a bit problematic as there seems to have been relatively few people she actually liked :p Joseph's eldest still had a ways to go before she was marriageable, and in any case I think he liked the idea of keeping them "in the family" (as uncomfortable as many of us are with first-cousin marriage these days, things were a bit different then...) - it at least could help to ensure that his bloodline remained "in the succession" in some form, even if he had no sons himself....
problem with that is that it turns the Bonapartes into Targaeryens that have very few links to their so-called allies. Napoléon was considering for Christine for Nando as early as 1808, and had Nappy not stripped his gears for the Spaniards, it would've ostensibly happened.
Lucien was against his daughter marrying in Spain and the girl herself was against the match, so the match failed and Napoleon decided for a full takeover of Spain.
For marrying a daughter of Joseph to Fernando you would need an earlier POD with the survival of his eldest daughter (Julie Josephine, born in 1796 and died in OTL at around 1 year and half) AND then you most likely butterfly Napoleon’s takeover of Spain (so Joseph at Napoleon‘s ATL death would still be King of Naples AND father#in#law of the King of Spain)
 
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