Napoleon wins Waterloo

Status
Not open for further replies.
20th June 1815

Following his victory at Planchenoit the previous day Napoleon issued new orders to Grouchy requiring him to continue the pursuit of Blucher's Brussans towards Louvain and Maastrich.

In the meantime the rest of the Armee du Nord advanced on Brussels which they occupied withut resistence by late afternoon. Intelligece reports from cavalry patrols and other sources indicated to Napoeon hat Wellington had retreated on Antwerp where the remnants of his army were now concentrating having gained two days march on the Armee du Nord thanks o Blucher's stand at Planchenoit and Grouchy's failure to disentangle himself in a timely manner from the battle of Wavre in which he had managed to become embroiled.

Napoleon had indeed won the first phase of the 1815 campaign but thanks to faulty French staffwork he had failed to win the decisive victory he had been aiming for. Brussels had fallen and both Wellington and Blucher had been badly mauled. Wellington in particular had suffered severely with a large portion of the Dutch Belgian contingent being destroyed or deserting. The British and other German contigents had also suffered severely. However, the French had suffered significant losses themselves during the five days of campaigning and were naring exhaustion.

Grouchy's pursuit of Blucher on the 20th was a slow and laclustre affair with no magor contacts and a few cavalry skirmishes. Napoleon needed to give his mai army, now conccentrating around Brussels before resuming operations. Napoleon was aware that the Russian and Austrian armies were closng on France's Eastern borders and needed to give careful consideration as to whether to continue operatiobns in Belgium in the hpe of winning a decisive victory against Wellington or Blucher or, alternatvely, whether he would now march to defend France's eastern Frontier.

Late in the evening a stormy meeting between Napoleon and his senior commanders including Soult, Ney, and the recentl promoted Marshal d'Erlon discussed the pros and cons of th strategic options now available to France.
 
I have a problem with the premise. Boney would never have sent the Imperial Guard in so early on in the battle. Never. It was his ace in the hole, his last reserve - especially after D'Erlon was stopped in his tracks by Picton's veterans.
 
I have a problem with the premise. Boney would never have sent the Imperial Guard in so early on in the battle. Never. It was his ace in the hole, his last reserve - especially after D'Erlon was stopped in his tracks by Picton's veterans.

I assumme you mean at Waterloo. there are reasons why the Guard was commmitted early this time

1 D'Erlon had penetrated the British position, had taken Smohain and Papelotte and repulsed the British cavalry counter attack.

2 Napoleon had committed Lobau against the Prussians and thereforead no other infantry reserves, Reille being tied up around Hougoumont. Lobau was dispaatched early and engaged the Prussians aoud the Bois de Paris with orders to make a fighting withdrawl from that position

3 There was an opportunity to win the battle quickly before the Prussians arrived but the only infantry to do it with were from the Imperial Guard.

Napoleon did commit the Guard earlier if he had to as at Eylau and a number of the 1814 battles. Given the circumstances as they were at midday.early afternoon thhis, and my other POD, a more sensible deployment of d'Erlon's corps was the only way for Napoleon to win a significant victory.

While Napoleon does win a significant success at Waterloo I do no believe it would have been a decisive victory. Although Wellington and Blucher were badly mauled in he fighting of 18th and 19th June their armies are in reasonable shape give the cirrcunstances,. Both suffered heavy losses and the eetherlands contingent, alwayss rather shaky due to inexperience if nothing else largely disintegrated on the battlefield or in the rereat afterwards. This includes he Dutch Belgan portion of the Hal contingent who were largely militia types and therefore with poor morale. Under thease circumstances it would be reasonable to assume large numbers of diversions.

Hence Napoleon, though he has won the first phase of the campaign and has rtaken Brussels has failed to win the reaally decisive victory he needed. He might still do so of course but the longer he is fighting in Belgium the more time the other Coalition armies have to close on France's eastern borders ansd begin the advance on Paris. Napoleon's time in Belgium is limited to perhaps a week or ten days after which the Armee du Nord must be forced mached to begin the defence of France. Alternatively Napoleon could wrap up the Belgian campaign now but if he does that Wellington and Blucher combined still have a significant combined fightng force which Napoleon does not need on his northern flank while fghting the much larger armies of Barclay de Tolly and Schwarzenburg. The Prussian Guard Corps can also be moved to reinforce Wellington and Blucher.

Hence, despite the victories at Waterloo and Planchenoit the Belgin Campaign may well be a straegic failure for France.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Judging by earlier threads, nothing actually changes and WW1 starts as normal on the same week as OTL.

(Yes, you're not going to live that down.)
 
Judging by earlier threads, nothing actually changes and WW1 starts as normal on the same week as OTL.

(Yes, you're not going to live that down.)

Heh Heh. What will change is the course of the 1815 campaign and the fact it will be much bloodier. If the final outcome is the same with the war ending in Napoleon's defeat in the late summer or early autumn of 1815 which is the most likely outcome at this point there is on reason forthe rest of the 19th Century to proceed as it did so WW1 can still break out in August 1914. A longer hundred days campaign ending n the same result, Napoleo's defeat and exile (possibly the venue might change) or his defeat and death are not going to change future events as we know them in any significant way.

If Napoleon somehow manages to pull off a victory in 1815 perhaps things could change somewhat.

The changes here are most likely to bwe short term ones with a longer and bloodier "Hundred Days" than IOTL. It is the development of the 1815 Campaign after a French win a Waterloo that we are looking at here.
 
21 June 1815

In Belgium Wellington remained at Antwerp with a cavalery screen deployed to watch for a French advance from Brussels where the Armee du Nord remained, resting and regrouping following the heavy fighting of the previous few days.

Blucher continued to retreat on Maastricht. Grouchy's corps occupied Louvain. The German Corps (German Federal Army) of 25000 men and the Prussian Reswerve Army including V Corps (Yorck), VI Corps (von Tauentzien) and the Prussian Guard Corps /(Duke of Mecklenburg) were ordered to deploy to the Maastricht area to reinforce Blucher.

The Royal Danish and Hanseatic corps under Price Frederick of Hessen Kassel (the Hanseatic troops came under the orders of Colonel Niel Cambell) were ordered to miove on Antwerp to reinforce Wellington. Once these reinforcements arrived Blucher and Wellingon hoped to be i posiion to launch a counter offensive during the last week of June, which, it was hoped would pin Napoleon down n Belgium while the Russian and Austrian armies thrust ovwer France's Eastern border. Despite the early setbacks the Allies were still very much in the war and fully expected to crush Napoleon in the coming weeks or months.
 
Heh Heh. What will change is the course of the 1815 campaign and the fact it will be much bloodier. If the final outcome is the same with the war ending in Napoleon's defeat in the late summer or early autumn of 1815 which is the most likely outcome at this point there is on reason forthe rest of the 19th Century to proceed as it did so WW1 can still break out in August 1914. A longer hundred days campaign ending n the same result, Napoleo's defeat and exile (possibly the venue might change) or his defeat and death are not going to change future events as we know them in any significant way.

In OTL, Britain and Prussia beat Napoleon, clearly and publically. In this TL, Napoleon will have beaten them while Austria and Russia save the Coalition's bacon (with Spanish support, I suppose). That's going to resonate at the Congress of Vienna, especially as there's already bickering aplenty.

I don't know WHAT it means, but options include:

A) Belgium could be seen as much more semi-French and in need of Dutch dominance. A Belgian revolution might see Britain actively opposing the revolution.
B) More reactionary monarchies being set up where needed.
C) A smaller Prussian Rhine province, especially if the Bavarians (somehow) prove useful to the Coalition (it's not that hard to shift the Rhineland-Pfalz border).
 
A victory, even if short-lived, by Napoleon at Waterloo would still have significant effects on pop music. Stonewall Jackson's "Waterloo" and Abba's song of the same name would both be impossible. The scene of whatever is Napoleon's final battle in this ATL might have a totally unmusical, unrhymable name...

"Ottignies - I was defeated, you won the war
Ottignies - Promise to love you for ever more
Ottignies - Couldn't escape if I wanted to
Ottignies - Knowing my fate is to be with you
Ottignies - Finally facing my Ottignies"

You may be right...
 

John Farson

Banned
"Ottignies - I was defeated, you won the war
Ottignies - Promise to love you for ever more
Ottignies - Couldn't escape if I wanted to
Ottignies - Knowing my fate is to be with you
Ottignies - Finally facing my Ottignies"

You may be right...

Almost makes you think that both sides deliberately decided to hold the decisive battle in Waterloo - with Napoleon throwing the fight - just so that future pop bands would have the opportunity to use a rhymable name for their English-language songs.:eek::p
 
I'm not at all sure that Spain was in any condition to join in the fighting.Not only had the country been torn up by the conflict but it was beginning to be clear that there was major trouble in the American colonies. This would require sending troops and resources there.
 
In OTL, Britain and Prussia beat Napoleon, clearly and publically. In this TL, Napoleon will have beaten them while Austria and Russia save the Coalition's bacon (with Spanish support, I suppose). That's going to resonate at the Congress of Vienna, especially as there's already bickering aplenty.

I don't know WHAT it means, but options include:

A) Belgium could be seen as much more semi-French and in need of Dutch dominance. A Belgian revolution might see Britain actively opposing the revolution.
B) More reactionary monarchies being set up where needed.
C) A smaller Prussian Rhine province, especially if the Bavarians (somehow) prove useful to the Coalition (it's not that hard to shift the Rhineland-Pfalz border).

Some interesting possible changes to the timeline. Maybe not a Belgian Revolution but Napoleon could start recruiting Belgians as he holds Brussels now.

The Bavarians may very well play an imortant role now that the 1815 campaign will become a longer and harder fought affair than OTL. The #Bavarianbcorps did fight a battle at LA Souffel on 28 June and there is no rweason why this battle should not still be fought as the Coal;lition forces start crossing the eastern borders.

As for more reactionary monarchies, at this point it mmight not be that different from OTL. The Congress System should still happen, just a few months later owing to the longer war.

Allied peace terms when they win, as they probably will eventually are likely to be rather harsher thanks to the longer and bloodier war. The Bourbons will be back in Paris at the likely end of this war but we are likely to have a harsher White Terror with more Bonapartists being executed.

Anyway, right now I am more interested in developing the military course of the campaign.

How d you guys see Napoleon's and the Coalition's military options at this point. Should Napoleon

1 Advance on Antwerp to destroy Wellington although this would mean a reasonably intact Prussian army on his flank and rear. An army that will ashortly be reinforced by another three corps.

2 Ignore Wellington/watch him with a covering force while Napoleon recombines the Armee du Nord in an attempt to destroy Blucher before he is reinforced. This will likely result in a battle somewhere around Maastricht. Afterwards Napoleon can either attack Wellington or march to the defence of the Easterm borders.

Napoleon knows he will have about another ten days in Belgium before he has to move to confront the invading Austian and Russian armies

3 Abandon the Belgian campaign leaving a force to hold Brussels. In this case Napoleon can arrive in Eastern France sooner but without inflicting a really decisive victory over Wellington and Blucher. They will regroup abd lanch an offensive into Northern France nce Napoleon retires from Belgium
 
Best to look at what Napoleon did against superior numbers in Italy to get a guide.

Attacking Wellington would be counter productive as all he would do is retire on Antwerp and Napoleon hasn't got time for a siege (even if he could enforce it) and can't afford the casualties from an assault

Perversely I think Napoleon needs to draw the Allied armies on to him and use internal lines and French fortresses to delay and defeat the Allies in turn

It's not going to work but if Napoleon has got another 1814 campaign in him the finale could be spectactular
 
Best to look at what Napoleon did against superior numbers in Italy to get a guide.

Attacking Wellington would be counter productive as all he would do is retire on Antwerp and Napoleon hasn't got time for a siege (even if he could enforce it) and can't afford the casualties from an assault

Perversely I think Napoleon needs to draw the Allied armies on to him and use internal lines and French fortresses to delay and defeat the Allies in turn

It's not going to work but if Napoleon has got another 1814 campaign in him the finale could be spectactular

Agree on the Antwerp option. There is also the likelihood that Wellington can be evacuated by the Royal Navy much as Moore's army was evacuated from Corrunna. Napoleon has lost his chance to destroy Wellington at least for now. Plus of course Blucher could fall on Napoleon's strategic flank/rear once the three additional Prussian corps arrive.

If Napoleon abandons the Belgian campaign immediatel the long term situation does indeed look bleak wit Napoleon being overwhlmed. He would be able to call on an additional 66000new conscrpts coming through the training depots and of course the various other French forces. Davout may well be brought forward to take some form of field command quite soon.

The Maastrict option may well have promise however. There is an opportunity to recmbine with Grouchy to attack Bluchers four corps before the reinforcements arrive
 
Apart from the Royal Navy option, Wellington can also retreat north. Antwerp to Rotterdam is fairly doable in terms of terrain, I'd think, but rather harder for an army opposed at every crossing (by Wellington leaving delaying skirmishers, if need be). From Rotterdam, Wellington then has the whole coast of Holland where he's constantly well-supplied and almost as able to retreat to the navy as he is in Antwerp.

At that point, if Napoleon follows a bit more he's at risk of being cut off from France by the Prussians or Austro-Russian gains, and if he doesn't Wellington is not as 'out of the fight' as retreating back to the fleet implies.
 
Austria and/or Russia have more of a say at the Conference, having been the ones to defeat Napoleon while the British and Prussians lost.

Even though I know the Conference was technically over, I can't help but be drawn to this. After all, if Waterloo neither gives Napoleon a second chance nor opens the door for greater Austrian and Russian influence, what the AH potential does the battle have?
 
Denmark would not join the war. They were Napoleon's ally during the last campaign and had no love for the anti-Napoleon Coalition . They had lost Norway to the Swedes. So I would expect that they would sit the war out.
I would also expect that the Belgians would be flocking to the French. Thus the Armee du Norte would be making good its loses.
 
Apart from the Royal Navy option, Wellington can also retreat north. Antwerp to Rotterdam is fairly doable in terms of terrain, I'd think, but rather harder for an army opposed at every crossing (by Wellington leaving delaying skirmishers, if need be). From Rotterdam, Wellington then has the whole coast of Holland where he's constantly well-supplied and almost as able to retreat to the navy as he is in Antwerp.

At that point, if Napoleon follows a bit more he's at risk of being cut off from France by the Prussians or Austro-Russian gains, and if he doesn't Wellington is not as 'out of the fight' as retreating back to the fleet implies.

Wellington would be badly outnumberedd so he might consider evacuation as the better optio.However, Napoleon knows that he will still have Blucher on his left and rear and that Blucher will shortly be reinforced by another three Prussian Corps includig the Prussian Guard within he next few days. Plus of course a combined Austriam and Russiam invasion of Eastern France due to start in late June/early July. A pursuit of Wellingtn without having first destroyed Blucher is too risky for Napoleon. Wellington can still muster 60 or 70000 men including the British, Hannoverians, Brunswickers (the Belgians and Nassaua contingent are essentally gone)
 
Denmark would not join the war. They were Napoleon's ally during the last campaign and had no love for the anti-Napoleon Coalition . They had lost Norway to the Swedes. So I would expect that they would sit the war out.
I would also expect that the Belgians would be flocking to the French. Thus the Armee du Norte would be making good its loses.

Denmarck did in fact commit a contingent to the Coalition during the Hundred Days. It never saw action and their morale might be shaky
 
Wellington would be badly outnumberedd so he might consider evacuation as the better optio.However, Napoleon knows that he will still have Blucher on his left and rear and that Blucher will shortly be reinforced by another three Prussian Corps includig the Prussian Guard within he next few days. Plus of course a combined Austriam and Russiam invasion of Eastern France due to start in late June/early July. A pursuit of Wellingtn without having first destroyed Blucher is too risky for Napoleon. Wellington can still muster 60 or 70000 men including the British, Hannoverians, Brunswickers (the Belgians and Nassaua contingent are essentally gone)

Napoleon has also fought three major battles and two minor ones (Quatre Bras and Wavre) within four days. How many effectives does he actually have?

His troops are going to be tired and probably hungry (foraging will be difficult).

He needs a breather but he needs to be in the right place to do it all again in a week - and that place is not the coast of Belgium.

Maastricht is better but Liege will be garrisoned and Napoleon needs to beat Blucher again in open battle.

Feint towards Maastricht and hope Marshal Vorwarts lives up to his name.
 
Even though I know the Conference was technically over, I can't help but be drawn to this. After all, if Waterloo neither gives Napoleon a second chance nor opens the door for greater Austrian and Russian influence, what the AH potential does the battle have?

Napoleon certainly will fight onand he still has sme hope of defeating the Allied invasion. Not much of course but the campaign will be a hard fought and bloody one. We are looking at the course of the alternative military history of the campaign that might have beed had Napoleopn won at Wateerloo.

The long term political consequences are not likely to change much unless Napoleon manages to pull off an unlikely victory. If the campaign ends in French defeats we might see

1 Harsher Allied peace terms. France may well lose territory Saxony might be punished more harshly for the mutiny of its' army earlier in 1815
2 Harsher Bourbon repression and a bl;oodier White Terror
 
Top
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top