Wouldn't this be a lot easier to accomplish if you have Napoleon win decisively at Quatre Bras?
Napoleon wins Waterloo
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Hannoverians means those raised from Hannover not designated as KGL The KGL units will hold together but will have taken heavy lossers. Barng's garrisson at La Haye Sainte are either dead or prisoners.
Derek Pullem
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It's your story and I know you don't take any counter arguments so I'll leave you to this one
Napoleon could have won Waterloo. In this case I have nade two changes
1 On observing the Prussian arrival Lobau's corps was dispatched to block the defiles fightig a delayig action from positions around the Bois de Paris.
2 D'Erlon's attack better organised and properly supported by cavalry Uxbridge's charge now fails breaking against French squares which would have been formed much more efficientl had the corps advanced with a better deployment. Having repellled Uxbridge the corp secures the ridge, taking the strongpoints of La Haye Sainte, Smohain and Pappelotte as Napoleon planned. his sets up the situation for he Imperial Gaurd to attack in ful force, hoursd earlier with the support of the remainng French cavalry corps. Wellington's army will certainly put up a gallant resistence to all of this which is what happens in my scenario. Wellington falls bach to Mont St Jean ad tries to form a new line there which he would have done had he lost his orignal postion. However, by mid afternoon e would have been under intense pressure as in my scenario an Wellington's defence finally fell apart under the assault of the Imperial Guard.
Waterloo was a much closer run thing than is commonly thought. Aftyer the fall of La Haye Sainte in OTL Wellngton's centre faced a crisis of about an hour (circa 6pm) and could have broken had the French been able to send in their reserves, In OTL those reserves were not availabl having been squandered earlier by Ney or being required to face the Prussians. Im my TL the initial French attacks are better planned and implemented which gives Napoleon his best hance of a decisive victory over Wellington before the Prussians can intervene.
As for Quatre Bras that was badly botched by Ney on the 16th. The only time when Napoleon culd have won a battle here would have been on the 17th and only if Ney attacked in the morning as he should have done. In these circumtances Wellington would in any case be withdrawing under cover of a rearguard actionWellington might well have been able to pull off a retreat following the afternoon thunderstorm limiting Napoleon's victory Very likely Wateerloo would still be fought under these conditions.
If however the crossroads at Quatre Bras had been occupied on the 15th that could have butterflied away a stand at Waterloo altogether except perhaps as a rearguard action.
In this scenario the French have achieved the victory a Waterloo that Napoleon has exected. However, with the Prussians on his right he cannot advance on Brussels except on the 19th with some cavalry pursuing Wellington. The Duke has the 19th to break contact with most of he French army who will be engaged against Blucher. If Grouchy does his job a large part of Blucher's army could be destroyed. However this will gain a day for Wellingto to save himself and what remains of Britain's field army. Whether Blucher can save his army without beng badly mauled in the process remains to be seen. Howweve 20 June is likely to see the Armee du Nord marching on Brrussels with little to stop them.
Oh, I agree. My point was though, I think you give Napoleon a lot better chance of getting out of there with the maximum amount of his army in one piece as possible if he just crushes the Prussians and British at Qatre Bras and Ligny.
Probably. The best chance would be a decisive French victory at Ligny which would be possible only if the foul up over the staff work relating to the orders given to d'Erlon's corps.
In my Napoleonic vicory scenario the Armee du Nord will have suffered quite badly during the battles of the 18th and 19th/ Perhaps some 12000 casualties. On the other hand a large part of Wellington's army has been destroyed and the same is abou to happen to Blucher. apoleon wil take Brussel and will consider a further pursuit of Wellington. Destroyng Britain's field army could well bring down Lord Liverpool's government aand knock Britain out of he war. Which means Prussia, Russia and Austria lose their banker. In which case they may not be in a position to continue the war. Plus of course the destruction of the British and Prussian armies would be a tremendous blow to the coalition, possibly enough o get them to consider offering peace to Napoleon. Or of couse the coalition could split.
It is only 19 June and Napoleon still has to fight his battle with Blucher. Only when that battle has been fought can Napoleon take his next straegic decisions. He will want to take a few days to pursue Wellington with a view to destroying his army before the Royal Navy evacuates them. In the course of these operations Brussels will of corse be occupied. In maybe a weeek or ten days Napoleon will need to march to defend France's Eastern borders against he slow moving Russians and Austrians. Napoleon will want to use the few days he has to secure Belgium before his fight with Barcl;lay de Tolly and Scwarzenburg. Napoleon woulfd like to knock Britain out of th war if he can or destroy a large portion of their field army so it will not pose a threat to he French coast later on in the campaign.
19 June 1815 Wavre
Grouchy recieved Napoleo'ss order sent at 8pm 18 June order sent from the Emperor's headquarers in the village of Waterloo sortly after 1AM. Orders went out to Gerard's 4th Corps and Exeman's 2nd Cavalry Corward to march on Plancenoit via Lasne in order to assault Blucher's left flank and rear.
The French plan was however badly disrupted at around 4am when Thielmann did the unexpected and attackedthe Frnch left flank, taking Gerard's corps by surprise as it prepared to mach. Gerard, a highly cmpetent general swiftly responed , redeploying in a stinging counter attack that drove Stulpnagel's 12th Brigade, Kemphenn's 10th Brigade and the Reserve Calry ~brigade back in considerable dissarray.
By 10am when Thielmann recieved a message from Blucher regarding the outcome at Waterloo Thielmann's corps was in fretreat towards Louvain.
Grrouch ordered Vandamme's Corps to pursue Thiielmann while Grouch took command of Gerad and Exelman's cavalry to march on Lasne as per Napoleon's orders. Soon after 10pm the thunder of arillery fire could clearly be heard from the direction of Ohain and Plancenoit.
Thielmann had achieved one thing however. Grouchy's march did no get started until noon. The effect of tis delay on he main battle between Napoleon and Grouchy remained to be seen
Grouchy recieved Napoleo'ss order sent at 8pm 18 June order sent from the Emperor's headquarers in the village of Waterloo sortly after 1AM. Orders went out to Gerard's 4th Corps and Exeman's 2nd Cavalry Corward to march on Plancenoit via Lasne in order to assault Blucher's left flank and rear.
The French plan was however badly disrupted at around 4am when Thielmann did the unexpected and attackedthe Frnch left flank, taking Gerard's corps by surprise as it prepared to mach. Gerard, a highly cmpetent general swiftly responed , redeploying in a stinging counter attack that drove Stulpnagel's 12th Brigade, Kemphenn's 10th Brigade and the Reserve Calry ~brigade back in considerable dissarray.
By 10am when Thielmann recieved a message from Blucher regarding the outcome at Waterloo Thielmann's corps was in fretreat towards Louvain.
Grrouch ordered Vandamme's Corps to pursue Thiielmann while Grouch took command of Gerad and Exelman's cavalry to march on Lasne as per Napoleon's orders. Soon after 10pm the thunder of arillery fire could clearly be heard from the direction of Ohain and Plancenoit.
Thielmann had achieved one thing however. Grouchy's march did no get started until noon. The effect of tis delay on he main battle between Napoleon and Grouchy remained to be seen
19 June 1815 Brussels 9.30am
An exausted Duke of Wellington reached Brussels shortly after midnight and snatched a few hours of troubled sleep. By 6pm he was up and meeting with Uxbridge who had suffered a slight leg wound the previous day. Lord Hill and the rest of his staff.
The news was not good/ Picton was dead, killed by the Imperial Guard when they broke through the last line of defence at Mont St Jean. The Prince of Orange, no general to be sure but politically important was badly wounded and thought to be a prisoner of the French. The army itself had suffered at least 25000 dead or prisoners. Thousands more were wounded and huge convoys of he wounded were even bow clogging the roads to Antwerp. The Cavalry Corps under Uxbridge had suffered at least 40% casualtied. Ponsonby and Somerset were deador prisner Of the infantry the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Anglo Hanoverian Divisions had been badly knocked around but were still combat capablePicton's 5th Division had been shatered and effectivey destroyed by the Imerial Guard. The Brunswick Division was likewise badly battered,and demoralised by the death of heir Duke at Quatre Bras. 2nd and 3rd Netherlands Divisions, shatteered by d'Erlon's Corps or by he French Cavalry corps in the pursuit were effectively destroyed. Hundreds of survivors were reported to be deserting the colours in droves.
Hill reported that 1st Netherlands Division with the Hal Detatchment was demoralised with thousands of desertions. It was clear that the Neherlands contigent was finished as a fighting force.
Wellington knew that he army had been almost shattered at Waterloo although the British contingent and, to a lesser extent the Hannoverans were still capable of fighting. Brussels was of course was untenable.
The only "good" news was that, with Blucher on his right flank, Napoleon could not move immediately on Brussels. Wellington, always the hard headed general, knew there was nothing he could do for Blucher, made tghe decision to use the 19th to abandon Brussels and march on Antwerp where he could regroup or, if need be, evacuate his army thanks to the Royal Navy. The Duke had no wish to abandon Blucher but, given the strategic situation, there really was no other millitary option. The Prussian would have to save his own army if he could.
An exausted Duke of Wellington reached Brussels shortly after midnight and snatched a few hours of troubled sleep. By 6pm he was up and meeting with Uxbridge who had suffered a slight leg wound the previous day. Lord Hill and the rest of his staff.
The news was not good/ Picton was dead, killed by the Imperial Guard when they broke through the last line of defence at Mont St Jean. The Prince of Orange, no general to be sure but politically important was badly wounded and thought to be a prisoner of the French. The army itself had suffered at least 25000 dead or prisoners. Thousands more were wounded and huge convoys of he wounded were even bow clogging the roads to Antwerp. The Cavalry Corps under Uxbridge had suffered at least 40% casualtied. Ponsonby and Somerset were deador prisner Of the infantry the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Anglo Hanoverian Divisions had been badly knocked around but were still combat capablePicton's 5th Division had been shatered and effectivey destroyed by the Imerial Guard. The Brunswick Division was likewise badly battered,and demoralised by the death of heir Duke at Quatre Bras. 2nd and 3rd Netherlands Divisions, shatteered by d'Erlon's Corps or by he French Cavalry corps in the pursuit were effectively destroyed. Hundreds of survivors were reported to be deserting the colours in droves.
Hill reported that 1st Netherlands Division with the Hal Detatchment was demoralised with thousands of desertions. It was clear that the Neherlands contigent was finished as a fighting force.
Wellington knew that he army had been almost shattered at Waterloo although the British contingent and, to a lesser extent the Hannoverans were still capable of fighting. Brussels was of course was untenable.
The only "good" news was that, with Blucher on his right flank, Napoleon could not move immediately on Brussels. Wellington, always the hard headed general, knew there was nothing he could do for Blucher, made tghe decision to use the 19th to abandon Brussels and march on Antwerp where he could regroup or, if need be, evacuate his army thanks to the Royal Navy. The Duke had no wish to abandon Blucher but, given the strategic situation, there really was no other millitary option. The Prussian would have to save his own army if he could.
If Louis Berthier had not died but instead had live to join Napoleon for the campaign things might have gone a lot better for the Emperor. There would not have been the confusion that took place. Also Marshal Soult probably would have commanded the forces at Quartre De braz and might very well have taken the cross roads> Thus the campaign might have started with two smashing victories. Ney would have been given the task of finishing off the Prussians.
For Napoleon to win I think everything has to go extremely right and then a lot of luck needs to happen to him, but I don't necessarily think it's ASB.
IOTL the initial French attack was badly coordinated and in the wrong formation. I changed things, having Napoleon pay more attention to the battle with Wellingon after having sent Lobau off to block Blucher's army as far from the main battlefield as possible and to fight a rearguard action while Napoleon settles the battle with Wellington.
The French use the original plan of assaulting Wellington's centre and left but giving d'Erlon greater cavalry support. Havig taken the strogpoints of La Haye Sainte, Smohain and Papelotte and defeated Uxbridge's cavalry charge by being in an appropriate formation to form squre to repel the Britis cavalry and with the support of French Reserve Cavalry Corps the Armee du Nord makes correct use of combined arms to weaken Wellington's attempts at defence in early and mid afternoon culminating in the commitment of the Imperial Gaurd breaking Wellington's attempt to reform his line at Mont St Jean Farm and causing his army to collapse. In the meantime Lobau fights a brilliantly succeesful delaying action, gradually falling back to Planchenoitb which the French still hold as darkness falls.
Napoleon did not lose Waterloo IOTL due to bad luck. He lost due to Soult's poor staffwork and poor coordination particularly on Ney's part. Napoleon knew Soult was inexperienced as chief of staff and he knew Ney was rash. Knowing this he should have supervised both men far more closely than he did.
Though the reinforcements would have been welcome, the likelihood of Wellington's army being mauled sufficiently badly to need full replacement is extremely low. So much ink has been spilled praising the defensive strengths of the front of the position that little has remained to talk about how well the Foret de Soignes would have facilitated a retreat had Wellington been forced to make one. However, Jomini concluded:
"Would an army with its rear resting upon a forest, and with a good road behind the centre and each wing, have its retreat compromised, as Napoleon imagined, if it should lose the battle? ...the infantry and cavalry and a great part of the artillery could retire just as readily as across a plain. There is, indeed, no better cover for an orderly retreat than a forest- this statement being made upon the supposition that there are two good roads behind the line, that proper measures for retreat have been taken before the enemy has had an opportunity to press too closely, and, finally, that the enemy is not permitted by a flank movement to be before the retreating enemy at the outlet of the forest, as was the case at Hohenlinden. The retreat would be the more secure if, as at Waterloo, the forest formed a concave line behind the centre; for this re-entering would become a place of arms to receive the troops and give them time to pass off in succession on the main roads." (Jomini, The Art of War)
I'd imagine a defeat would also have caused Britain to declare war on France and call out the militia, something which wasn't done historically, thus freeing up regular troops in Britain for service in Belgium.
Anaxagoras
Banned
As far as personnel changes are concerned, Napoleon should not have left Davout in Paris. If we can imagine an army with Bertier still alive as chief-of-staff, with corps under Davout, Soult, and Ney, I would expect Napoleon to do much better.
Murat had offered his services to Napoleon, when he realized that the Allies were not going to honor the deal they had made with him in 1814 and after the fiasco that was the Battle of Toletino. The man might have been a buffoon and politically inept, but there was no man better to lead a cavalry charge. Having him as a cavalry commander at Waterloo would have done Napoleon a world of good.
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Depends on what happens to Blucher and then on how fast Napoleon moves on Brussels and beyond. here may be a situation where Wellington has to evacuate from Antwerp and is caught in the act by Napoleon. That might well resul in he effective destruction of Wellinton's army.
However, Napoleon cannot pursue Wellingto while Blucher is on his flank and rear. It will take one or two days to defeat Blucher as Wellington knows very well and the Duke will use that time to escape.
Davout was one of the few French Marshals who could be trusted to operate as an independent cmmander. Remember, while Napoleo is in Belgium someone has to coordinate the defence of France's Eastern border.
Berrthier was of couse not available for the Waterloo campaign, being dead, possibly assassinated although his fgall ccould have been an accident. This however is well before this timeline's POD which is midday on 18 June art Waterloo
As far as Waterloo is concerrned Ney was actually entrusted with the management of the battle agains Wellington and he made a hash of it as he had made a hash of previous batles,, The French cavalry charges were a part of this but this does no tell the wholee story. Given the same job as Ney, the coordinaion of the battle against Wellington Murat is unlikely to have done much better though he might not have been quite as reckless as Ney was.
However, o the morning of 18 June Napoleopm had the team he had. He picked them from a more limited pool than he had had in previous years. However, he knew the men and their shortcomings. Had Napoleon managed them more closely many of the mistakes might have been avoided and the outcome changed.
Saphroneth
Banned
That was my first thought.Based on the Napoleon loses at Wagram thread I confidently predict nothing will change whatsoever and WW1 will still begin in August 1914
Battle of Planchenoit 10am 19 June 1815
Shortly before 10am the French opened fire on Prussian positions between Ohain and Plancenoit. The latter had finally fallen to Bullow's corp late the previous evening after Lobau had withdrawn under heavy pressure from the Prussian assault.
Following a thirty minute bomardment d'Erlon,s corps mounted the first of a series of assaults against Ohain while Lobau mounted similar attacks against Plancenoit. As at Ligny, three days earlier bloody street fighting esued in both owns, drawing in Blucher's reserves. At noon Reille's corps, with strong cavalry support mounted a strong skirmisher onsluaght against Blucher's centre.
Soon after noon Napoleon recieved Grouchy's message explaiing events at Wavre notifying him of the engagemen at Wavre and warning the Emperor that Grouchy could not be expected to arrive in force until late afternoon if at all.
By this time Napoleon could tell that Blucher was under heavy pressure and that his reserves had been committed. Planchenoit had fallen to obau who was now pushing towards the Bois de Paris over the ground he had contested so fiercely the day before, Heavy fightng still continued in Ohain although the town had been taken and reaken twice
At 2.45pm the Armee du Nord mounted a general attack right along the line and the Imperial Guard moved up to assualt the Prussian Centre The Gaurd went in an hour later at 3.45 pm breaking Blucher's centre.
However, as at Ligny and unlike Wellington's army the day before the Prussia army held together under the French hammer blow and withdrew from the field in good orderin he directio of Louvain and Maastricht where Blucher planned to reconcentrate the Prussian army before mounting future offensive operations in co-operation with Russian and Austrian reinforcements.
The fall of Brussels was now inevitable within the next couple of days. However, although Napoleeon had won the first phase of the 1815 Campaign he had failed win thwe decisive strategic victory he had really been looking forthanks to a series of Fench staff errors, serious mistakes by several of his subordiates and hard fighting by the British and Prussian armies. Though Wellington and Blucher had been hit hard and badly beaten in the "five day campaign" as it would later be called both could muster significant forces capable of mounting a magor offensive if both generals continued to c0-operate.
Shortly before 10am the French opened fire on Prussian positions between Ohain and Plancenoit. The latter had finally fallen to Bullow's corp late the previous evening after Lobau had withdrawn under heavy pressure from the Prussian assault.
Following a thirty minute bomardment d'Erlon,s corps mounted the first of a series of assaults against Ohain while Lobau mounted similar attacks against Plancenoit. As at Ligny, three days earlier bloody street fighting esued in both owns, drawing in Blucher's reserves. At noon Reille's corps, with strong cavalry support mounted a strong skirmisher onsluaght against Blucher's centre.
Soon after noon Napoleon recieved Grouchy's message explaiing events at Wavre notifying him of the engagemen at Wavre and warning the Emperor that Grouchy could not be expected to arrive in force until late afternoon if at all.
By this time Napoleon could tell that Blucher was under heavy pressure and that his reserves had been committed. Planchenoit had fallen to obau who was now pushing towards the Bois de Paris over the ground he had contested so fiercely the day before, Heavy fightng still continued in Ohain although the town had been taken and reaken twice
At 2.45pm the Armee du Nord mounted a general attack right along the line and the Imperial Guard moved up to assualt the Prussian Centre The Gaurd went in an hour later at 3.45 pm breaking Blucher's centre.
However, as at Ligny and unlike Wellington's army the day before the Prussia army held together under the French hammer blow and withdrew from the field in good orderin he directio of Louvain and Maastricht where Blucher planned to reconcentrate the Prussian army before mounting future offensive operations in co-operation with Russian and Austrian reinforcements.
The fall of Brussels was now inevitable within the next couple of days. However, although Napoleeon had won the first phase of the 1815 Campaign he had failed win thwe decisive strategic victory he had really been looking forthanks to a series of Fench staff errors, serious mistakes by several of his subordiates and hard fighting by the British and Prussian armies. Though Wellington and Blucher had been hit hard and badly beaten in the "five day campaign" as it would later be called both could muster significant forces capable of mounting a magor offensive if both generals continued to c0-operate.
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