Mussolini dies in 1938

[VVD0D95]

Something I've been pondering lately. Mussolini, was the original fascist as it were, and as such saw himself as the superior partner in his relationship with Hitler until WW2 broke out and Italy needed German help in Africa and Greece. The war fucked over his support and ended up with him getting the hanger's treatment and a referendum on the monarchy.

But say Mussolini isn't around for the entirety of the war, say in 1938, Mussolini ends up choking to death on a drink-apparently he liked to have a few-and as such Il Duce is dead. What happens next? Who succeeds him as leader? Was the fascist regime in Italy stable enough to survive his passing?

Your thoughts as always are welcome

 

[Historymaster]

In 1938 Italo Balbo is the most like to suceed him; Italy would probably sit the war out and the regimes go on, in 1947 when Vittorio Emanuele II dies, Umberto II will probably negotiate for the end of totalitarism (Back to law Acerbo, only parties allowed PNF, Popular Party (with Cavazzoni not De Gasperi or Sturzo) and a National Democratic Block as a token antifascist party lead by Croce and Salandra) It is also possible that Umberto, on Maria Josè prompt circumvents the regime nominating known antifascists a Kingdom's Senator, thus giving them immunity. I see a belligerant diarchy leading in 1968 to the end of the regime and democratization; Italy would still be a monarchy thought.

 

[VVD0D95]

In 1938 Italo Balbo is the most like to suceed him; Italy would probably sit the war out and the regimes go on, in 1947 when Vittorio Emanuele II dies, Umberto II will probably negotiate for the end of totalitarism (Back to law Acerbo, only parties allowed PNF, Popular Party (with Cavazzoni not De Gasperi or Sturzo) and a National Democratic Block as a token antifascist party lead by Croce and Salandra) It is also possible that Umberto, on Maria Josè prompt circumvents the regime nominating known antifascists a Kingdom's Senator, thus giving them immunity. I see a belligerant diarchy leading in 1968 to the end of the regime and democratization; Italy would still be a monarchy thought.

Oh now that is interesting. I wonder ow the monarchy would be viewed in such a situation

 

[Historymaster]

As the force which kept the nation united and restored order at the right moment; Of course yoinger generations might become more disaffected with the institution, expecially after Vittorio Emanuele succeeds his father in 1983. I see him abdicate in 2014 to pass the crown to younger hand and fresher minds, a bit likeJuan Carlos.

 

[VVD0D95]

As the force which kept the nation united and restored order at the right moment; Of course yoinger generations might become more disaffected with the institution, expecially after Vittorio Emanuele succeeds his father in 1983. I see him abdicate in 2014 to pass the crown to younger hand and fresher minds, a bit likeJuan Carlos.

Interesting, assuming of course that Vittorio turns out like he did otl. Growing up heir apparent to an actual Kingdom instead of in exile could change his personality no?

 

[BeardedHoplite]

As someone mentioned earlier, Balbo probably succeeds Mussolini and rules with a lighter hand. Still putting the PNF first but not being quite as overt with it.

Italy definitely sits out the war unless Germany decides to invade for some reason. Probably some sort of token declaration by Italy at the end of the war.

Most interestingly, Fascism remains an ideology that can be built up, developed and exported. I can definitely see it gaining tracton in the former colonies of European powers.

 

[VVD0D95]

As someone mentioned earlier, Balbo probably succeeds Mussolini and rules with a lighter hand. Still putting the PNF first but not being quite as overt with it.

Italy definitely sits out the war unless Germany decides to invade for some reason. Probably some sort of token declaration by Italy at the end of the war.

Most interestingly, Fascism remains an ideology that can be built up, developed and exported. I can definitely see it gaining tracton in the former colonies of European powers.

That's both intriguing and terrifying

 

[ZeroFrame]

If Italy stays neutral that could benefit Germany. If there’s no major fighting in Africa due to Germany not having much of a feasibly way to get there as Italy would be cut off. Plus IIRC Germany didn’t want to focus on Africa but rather Russia and was dragged in by Italy.

Without a war in Africa and Italy more troops and Erwin Rommel gets sent to Russia. I’m not an expert on military history so I don’t know how the war would go in Russia but it could with Rommel and more men and equipment go much better for Germany. If they could take Moscow that would be a major blow to the Soviet’s as the cultural hub was taken along with it being an industrial hub, crippling morale and weakening the industrial capabilities of the Soviets.

 

[VVD0D95]

If Italy stays neutral that could benefit Germany. If there’s no major fighting in Africa due to Germany not having much of a feasibly way to get there as Italy would be cut off. Plus IIRC Germany didn’t want to focus on Africa but rather Russia and was dragged in by Italy.

Without a war in Africa and Italy more troops and Erwin Rommel gets sent to Russia. I’m not an expert on military history so I don’t know how the war would go in Russia but it could with Rommel and more men and equipment go much better for Germany. If they could take Moscow that would be a major blow to the Soviet’s as the cultural hub was taken along with it being an industrial hub, crippling morale and weakening the industrial capabilities of the Soviets.

Interesting, as long as they don't overextend they could keep a challenge going I think

 

[Captain Seafort]

If Italy stays neutral that could benefit Germany. If there’s no major fighting in Africa due to Germany not having much of a feasibly way to get there as Italy would be cut off. Plus IIRC Germany didn’t want to focus on Africa but rather Russia and was dragged in by Italy.

The German army commitments to the Mediterranean war wouldn't make much of a change to Barbarossa - fewer than ten divisions all told. The presence of a couple more Fliegerkorps might make more of a difference, but still won't be huge.

On the allied side, however, no Italy in the war means that the Mediterranean is still at least partially open to movement, the constant stream of war production and reinforcements to Egypt (and the enormous drain on shipping of having to take it round the cape) doesn't exist, the RN isn't suffering a constant drain of ships lost and damaged, and a substantial proportion of the historical Mediterranean Fleet can be sent elsewhere. Imagine Force Z reinforced with Ark Royal, Renown, an armoured carrier or two, QE and Valiant.

 

[Historymaster]

If Barbariossa starts on schedule they will be stopped by mud instead that by snow. I suppose Vittorio Might be different expecially because he probably will marry someone different.

 

[VVD0D95]

If Barbariossa starts on schedule they will be stopped by mud instead that by snow. I suppose Vittorio Might be different expecially because he probably will marry someone different.

Indeed abd growing up as crown Prince with the security that brings us likelt to shape him differently

 

[GeographyDude]

Most interestingly, Fascism remains an ideology that can be built up, developed and exported. I can definitely see it gaining tracton in the former colonies of European powers.

But haven’t the Nazis discredited Fascism for all time? Or at least 200 years, shall we say!

———————

As far as a token force against the Nazis late in the war . . .

Deliberate non-helping is often viewed as more cold blooded than being a bad guy and attacking us.

No, it’s not logical, but it’s there.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

But haven’t the Nazis discredited Fascism for all time? Or at least 200 years, shall we say!

Balbo, Franco and the guy in Lisbon who I can never remember the name of will be making loud noises that no the NAZI's were not Fascists but National Socialists and nothing whatso ever to do with them. They'll be saying loudly and as often as they can that they offer the true alternative to both Decedent Democracy and Evil Communism. It's a message that will have a lot of takers in South America and the Arab world.

 

[Stardude82]

Couple thoughts:
Does Balbo get installed in time to stick up for Austria? I'm guessing he'll just shrug because of German support of Italian commitments in Ethiopia as Mussolini did, but that's it and takes the opportunity to détente with the UK and France. (I assume Ethiopia goes the way of most other post war dependencies. In the end, I suppose not much changes as the fates of Angola and Ethiopia look surprisingly similar.)

No Regia Marina to hold down the RN in the Med means the Japanese get squashed much more quickly and U-boats get handled sooner. The Japanese NEED oil. Might they just go after Dutch and French dependencies to see if they can avoid bringing the British and Americans into the war? Might they just pick a fight with the US and not the Commonwealth? Things look a lot different in the Pacific when the 4th largest Navy is no longer in play.

 

[marktaha]

Balbo, Franco and the guy in Lisbon who I can never remember the name of will be making loud noises that no the NAZI's were not Fascists but National Socialists and nothing whatso ever to do with them. They'll be saying loudly and as often as they can that they offer the true alternative to both Decedent Democracy and Evil Communism. It's a message that will have a lot of takers in South America and the Arab world.

Salazar

 

[Stardude82]

Without a war in Africa and Italy more troops and Erwin Rommel gets sent to Russia. I’m not an expert on military history so I don’t know how the war would go in Russia but it could with Rommel and more men and equipment go much better for Germany. If they could take Moscow that would be a major blow to the Soviet’s as the cultural hub was taken along with it being an industrial hub, crippling morale and weakening the industrial capabilities of the Soviets.

On the other hand, the French situation in the Mediterranean is much more secure in 1940. They have to worry about defending their possession there less. With Marine nationale more active in the Atlantic and a bit more manpower to spare, the German invasion of Norway is much more of a gamble. Maybe a corps in the right place makes all the difference in the defense of France itself.

 

[Popcorn]

That's both intriguing and terrifying

Hardly. Fascism is just another big government dictatorship, something that most former colonies have been well acquainted with OTL.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Could Italy pick off a Vichy French colony or two in the Med without triggering a conflict with either Germany or the UK ? Bit like Japan did in French Indochina

 

[BeardedHoplite]

Could Italy pick off a Vichy French colony or two in the Med without triggering a conflict with either Germany or the UK ? Bit like Japan did in French Indochina

Possibly, but assuming Balbo is in the driver's seat you'd likely see restraint and fence sitting until the tide is definitely turned against Germany.

If a more Germanophilic Fascist like Farinacci or Pavolini take over, you might see Italy join the war and have it roughly play out as OTL. It's doubtful however as both men were fairly low on the totem pole, Farinacci especially so.