Garrison
Donor
I would say some of these are non zero in the same way that my chance of beating Usain Bolt in a 100m sprint is non-zero.
Minimal PODs for Barbarossa to succeed taking Leningrad, Moscow and Rostov and holding the cities through winter
- Thread starter Gudestein
- Start date
True. Still, sprinters blow out their hamstrings on the regular. if Usain in lying on the track and crawling you probably have a 50/50 chance.I would say some of these are non zero in the same way that my chance of beating Usain Bolt in a 100m sprint is non-zero.
I can come up with a reasonable argument for each of them. Unlikely to be sure, even very unlikely, but not handwave either.
The hard part is doing it would making the Nazis "Notzis".
marathag
Banned
Already had the with Opel(80% GM owned) and Ford Cologne. After 1939, the Nazis took control. As you say, that's not a good way to make US business types happy
Yes, but you can’t get the British into Greece any earlier than they were, the troops just aren’t there. In early 1941 Wavell was pulling his hair out trying to cover so many fires in so many places. He had Libya, Italian East Africa and Syria to deal with, plus Greece and (briefly) Iraq. If the Nazis go into Greece in early March 1941 then there’s no real British presence in terms of infantry there yet and a German attack might get everything sent to Crete instead - which means tanks against Students men and the absolute slaughter of the Fallschirmjaegers. And in Barbarossa two extra divisions will mean more logistical issues.
I’m afraid that Barbarossa would always have failed due to the logistical pachyderm filling the room and - once again - it’s amazing they got as far as they did. Saying “Well they almost made it, why couldn’t they have gone the extra mile?” is like criticising a critically injured person for crawling across a carpet, leaving a trail of blood and then collapsing just before reaching the telephone.
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It’s been discussed ad nauseam but I’d say the best PODs for a Nazi victory in Eastern Europe (individually or in conjunction with each other) without a British treaty in 1940 are no involvement in North Africa freeing up vital resources for Barbarossa, focusing on Moscow and taking Stalingrad on the march in 1942 as a part of a Case Blue without Hitler’s incessant meddling halfway through.
As also discussed ad nauseam despite the above assuming the US and the UK are in the war the Reich still has to defeat the WAllies or get them to settle for a cold war due to the ocean of blood and treasure they’d have to expend with no Red Army to wound, capture and kill millions of German soldiers. I give it a 40% chance that the blood price proves to be too much especially if without a Soviet invasion Japan doesn’t surrender even after the atomic bombs and the WAllies are forced to blockade or physically invade the Home Islands. It would be far too much to ask of the American and British populations to wage two of the most intense wars consecutively for years on end into the late 1940s at minimum.
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It is an interesting list. I am not sure it’s the only components that can do something here, but I certainly agree with each one as being individually useful or essential to improve performance beyond OTL.
This post is actually very specifically centered around point 10, and while that point can go far, it’s not enough for victory if you break certain other of your 10 commandments😊.
As a single POD trying point 10 can be seen as a search for a better POD for an AANW like scenario.
That why Marita starts when the British have started to reinforce mainland Greece. I didn’t want to detail out exactly how this went, but you can imagine not everything running smoothly because of spring weather which results in the British throwing more into the furnace. Which delays battle axe and German involvement in Africa.
The analogy you made for Barbarossa is good, but the conclusion is wrong for a limited change.The wounded man DID make it to just before the edge of the carpet. If you give him a blood transfusion he might still collapse later, but he will make it to the edge of the carpet.
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Please confer the dying man collapsing on the carpet analogy debated elsewhere.
Marita did impact Barbarossa, the question is how much.
The prevailing logistics got the Germans to the gates of Moscow, Less attrition, less enemies remaining and more time remaining before the rains and the will get further.
If you have a POD centered around Germany/Greece, there is no reason to believe the Soviets will conduct their defense better than OTL. It’s irrelevant that they could have done better. You are free to make your own POD/TL where better German decisions are countered by still better Soviet decision making.
TDM
Kicked
I agree none of those are inherently impossible by themselves (although as you say some are verging on them being Notzi's)
The problem I think is that they kind of need all of them, or at least most of them, and doing each additional one makes doing a lot of them harder in and of themselves
So just taking one example of that, the production side of things
Developing lots of trucks, a heavy bomber and being able to put up a defensive line in occupied soviet territory that makes the Maginot look like it was made in kindergarten sandbox. Each one will make the other harder to do because there's only so much production and resources to go around. Plus some put a further direct strain on others, for instance that huge defense line in territory they seize on the first offensive. Not only will they need serious resources to actaully make it, but they will need serious resources to move those resources into place i.e more trucks.
Plus some things you can't make and you will now need more of. All those extra trucks (and heavy bombers) are going to need more fuel. Romanian oil fields are great but limited so you going to have go with the artificial fuel production which is a less efficient way and more resource intensive way of producing it, which is another addition onto that production burden above.
Rationalizing and doing a proper war economy will help but it's really just squeezing the sponge harder, if the sponge isn't big enough you can't get enough out no matter how hard you squeeze. And on top of that a lot of the necessary changes to the economy would require political moves that get kind of get into Notzi territory again
sorry not trying to poo-poo your post, I agree with it but trying to work off it.
EDIT: and as you said even with all this you give it a 1 in 10!
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TDM
Kicked
I would say some of these are non zero in the same way that my chance of beating Usain Bolt in a 100m sprint is non-zero.
True. Still, sprinters blow out their hamstrings on the regular. if Usain in lying on the track and crawling you probably have a 50/50 chance.
I can come up with a reasonable argument for each of them. Unlikely to be sure, even very unlikely, but not handwave either.
The hard part is doing it would making the Nazis "Notzis".
I think the problem is in this case Germany is racing not one Usain Bolt but several, and they need all of them to blow a hamstring to have a 50/50 chance of a win
Actually I agree. As I mentioned originally even with all of those things going 100% right and not making ANY errors the Reich only has a 10% chance of holding whatever they manage to capture.
It sort of illustrates just how idiotic Barbarossa was.
I have done a few of these Barbarossa scenarios myself. I think a lot of the thinking was that progress was looking so close in October 41, that if you could keep even an extra Panzer division in supply, and thrust it forward Moscow after the initial successes of Typhoon (kind of like the Kalinin thrust of the 1st panzer division, you could get close to the city and force the defenses back to the city itself, maybe even put the city under artillery fire, but that is about as good as it could possibly get. (a no Crete losses scenario could give enough transport planes to keep 1 division supplied for example)
If the Germans were closer to Moscow before Typhoon because of greater strength and success earlier, or it was a couple of weeks earlier because the Germans started a couple week earlier, the Soviets would have put more around Moscow or if some reason the Germans were closer to the city in November for phase 2, the Soviets would commit more of their reserves earlier which might hurt the December counter attack but would save the city.
So any plausible minor tweak that gets some greater German strength is certainly useful, might butterfly a Kiln bulge problem away later, or might strangle Leningrad a bit more so it falls to a Winter siege, perhaps setting up for a better 1942, but Moscow is just a bit too far to be a realistic objective.
The Germans could just do a grab of the economic objectives close at hand, Estonian shale oil, Galacian oil, Nikopol Magnesium, Krivy Rog Ore, 2/3s of the Ukrainian Grain, the Crimea for its strategic value, close out the offensive and defend, focus on the med in 1942, quit Africa in a timely manner if and when the going gets too tough. (they could save a lot of fuel just by not driving around the Caucasus in 1942, and repairing Estonian shale oil in 1942 instead of 1943 (the Konte oil boys sent to Estonia in 1942 with out the Caucasus).
If the Germans were closer to Moscow before Typhoon because of greater strength and success earlier, or it was a couple of weeks earlier because the Germans started a couple week earlier, the Soviets would have put more around Moscow or if some reason the Germans were closer to the city in November for phase 2, the Soviets would commit more of their reserves earlier which might hurt the December counter attack but would save the city.
So any plausible minor tweak that gets some greater German strength is certainly useful, might butterfly a Kiln bulge problem away later, or might strangle Leningrad a bit more so it falls to a Winter siege, perhaps setting up for a better 1942, but Moscow is just a bit too far to be a realistic objective.
The Germans could just do a grab of the economic objectives close at hand, Estonian shale oil, Galacian oil, Nikopol Magnesium, Krivy Rog Ore, 2/3s of the Ukrainian Grain, the Crimea for its strategic value, close out the offensive and defend, focus on the med in 1942, quit Africa in a timely manner if and when the going gets too tough. (they could save a lot of fuel just by not driving around the Caucasus in 1942, and repairing Estonian shale oil in 1942 instead of 1943 (the Konte oil boys sent to Estonia in 1942 with out the Caucasus).
I appreciate the point that the reserves assembled around Moscow for the december counterattacks would be thrown into the defense if the Germans were not slowed down before typhoon. However, its not just two weeks, two weeks means its before or after the rain. And where were the reserves for the counterattack in october?
Yes, lots of other ressources they could have tried to collect.
Yeah, OTL right the reserves were not around Moscow, (maybe still in their random central cities and places), temporary rail limitations trying to move industry out to the Urals, or just the Soviets still feeding armies into the more immediate from September problems along the Volkov or Donetz basins.
So you had this October temporary drama of Zhukov picking and choosing to defend the big road junctions in front of Moscow, while the Germans were hurt by supply issues and weather. By November Zhukov had reserves around Moscow, so its like a two week window where the Germans could take the city.
So the Germans have to somehow in October supply a big enough force to take a city of 4 million. Which is unsolvable.
The OTL shifts in direction kept the Soviets off balance (moving South when they did August / September), so really after the very first stage of Typhoon, once the weather gets bad by the middle of October, the Germans should probably shift back again to the Volkov and Donetz and Crimea, once Soviet reserves have been draw to Moscow. (and maybe take and hold at least 1 of the 3, Leningrad and Rostov).
TDM
Kicked
Thing is, if in some ATL were the Germans are steaming toward Moscow faster and earlier that OTL, it's pretty likely that the Soviets will adjust their reserve deployment from the OTL one as well (the mobilizations started almost immediately after the initial border fights). Not every red army mobilized reserve go through Moscow, but Moscow is a big transport hub for them
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thaddeus
Donor
Leningrad and Kiev seem reasonable (and consequential) targets for '41, Rostov? of course it would be an important juncture to have, but it almost seems their 1943 line at Taganrog or the planned Panther-Wotan Line at Melitopol would suffice?
it would seemingly be a moot point if the Dnieper River didn't turn back west, leaving Crimea isolated from the western bank position?
are we accounting for a speculative capture of Leningrad, if not "on the march" very early in the invasion? there would be major Soviet counterattacks? that might eclipse any attempt on Moscow, depending on the scale?
the "wild card" for 1941 might be an earlier capture of Kharkov, before the factories and equipment could be largely moved?
Yes, these are options that could be perceived with a late POD. There I agree you would be hard stressed to take one of the three.
My example requires a January’sh POD, but I believe could do the job by bigger Soviet losses and smaller German ones in shorter time. The other not insignificant difference is that the Leningrad-Moscow road and railroad is added to the axis of attack on Moscow. An approach that additionally is “just” 700 km.
Admittedly, in the POD I suggested I placed the extra resources just were Germans failed most miserably in OTL and got themselves surrounded on the drive towards Leningrad, so hindsight was used (though not necessarily needed). Adding the forces in the South seemed more speculative.
I’m not suggesting that focusing on Moscow would solve everything before winter. It was the center of gravity iotl already.
more something that allows an early Leningrad capture or that AGS does Kiev alone.
The early Leningrad capture is precisely what I suggest. I’m not sure the Soviets could counterattack. That would be on the Leningrad -Moscow road, the same axis the Germans would attack for Moscow.
TDM
Kicked
Right but as my first few responses to that there are inherent issues that just finding some more tanks or only doing two thrusts instead of three won't help with (and both bring their own problems as well as advantages)
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