General Mung Beans
Banned
What if John McCain had chosen Mitt Romney for VP? With Romney's economic experience could McCain have edged out a victory.
McCain/Romney 08
- Thread starter General Mung Beans
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The key problem there is that the two men actively dislike (perhaps hate) each other.
Changing that is hard, and would probably require earlier economic problems in order to see McCain choose Romney.
As for a victory… eh. It's unlikely, although possible (as most things are). Presidential candidate Romney, sure, but just as VP? It's hard to see McCain winning regardless of his Vice-President although a closer race—and perhaps victory—is probably within reach.
That said, his odds of winning Alaska collapse even as his odds of winning the industrial states go up. He would need to win Ohio and Michigan, certainly, if he was to have a chance. Romney, perhaps, could get him close (or all the way) in those states.
But what of the Southwest? Virginia? Indiana?
Given the perception most people had of the previous eight years I don't think any Republican could have gotten elected President in 2008.
I say people's perception because a lot of times people's perception of things turns out to have been different than how things really were. No I didn't agree with George W. Bush on everything, but I think George W. Bush was a very good President. George W. simply had the misfortune of being President at a time when because of things like 9/11 decisions had to be made and actions had to be taken that he knew would be or would become unpopular with The American People. He did them anyway because that's what had to be done in the best interests of The USA and of the world.
That he was willing to do what had to be done even though he knew it would be unpopular, putting the interests of the country ahead of self interest, to me that is a sign of a great President. I think history will be very kind to George W. Bush and his presidency.
But because Bush a Republican made the tough decisions and did what had to be done even though it was unpopular and people developed the perception of it they developed, I doubt that any Republican could have gotten elected President in 2008.
I say people's perception because a lot of times people's perception of things turns out to have been different than how things really were. No I didn't agree with George W. Bush on everything, but I think George W. Bush was a very good President. George W. simply had the misfortune of being President at a time when because of things like 9/11 decisions had to be made and actions had to be taken that he knew would be or would become unpopular with The American People. He did them anyway because that's what had to be done in the best interests of The USA and of the world.
That he was willing to do what had to be done even though he knew it would be unpopular, putting the interests of the country ahead of self interest, to me that is a sign of a great President. I think history will be very kind to George W. Bush and his presidency.
But because Bush a Republican made the tough decisions and did what had to be done even though it was unpopular and people developed the perception of it they developed, I doubt that any Republican could have gotten elected President in 2008.
Frankly, people over-estimate the influence of a VP candidate far too often. Bentsen was miles better than Quayle, but Dukakis still lost to Bush.
Romney's downsides would have far outweighed his economic experience.
- He is a Mormon. The Republican party consists mostly of Christians. Most people who are Christian but not Mormon do not believe that Mormons are Christians. Most Christians will only vote for a Christian. Ergo Romney would have had problems with Republican voters.
- He was formerly somewhat liberal. That combined with the myth that McCain was a centrist or a moderate would have depressed the base. Not only would the ticket have lost their votes, they would have lost all the votes they would have otherwise gone out and gotten (GOTV).
- McCain and Romney went after each other much more harshly than Clinton and Obama did. Their attacks on each other would have wound up in ads, ending with Obama or the DNC asking how could you trust these two guys to ever work together.
- Romney was worth $200 million. Add that to Cindy's fortune and you've got the $300 million ticket. The Republicans would have done even more poorly among the lower and middle classes.
- Romney would not have appealed nearly as much to the PUMA/HillaryIs44 crowd.
General Mung Beans
Banned
Why would his odds of winning Alaska collapse? Alaska is a fanatically Republican state. Also Romney would help in other regions since the economic crisis is universal essentialy.
1. Since when did you think Christians only vote for Christians? Only the fanatical nutwing of the GOP did so and any loss of them would be far outweighed by moderate votes.
2. Romney by the end of the primaries had become the candidate of choice for the conservative wing of the GOP.
3. McCain/Romney may have still lost but it would have been a very close loss far more so then in OTL.
Well, collapse from 100% to 60% or so—Obama was leading in the pre-Palin Alaska polls.
However given the post-election evidence on how unreliable Alaskan polls are, who knows now if that meant something.
Obama won 365 electoral votes, and 53% of the popular vote.
So, any 'McCain wins' scenario has to involve a 100-EV swing against Obama, and probably a 5% popular vote swing.
Now, explain to me how Mitt Romney -- a fantastically unlikeable man, with no appeal to independents or Democrats, whose political nous enabled him to spend tens of millions of dollars to come third in the primaries while trashing his reputation for moderate competence -- manages that. Explain how any Republican manages that.
Palin probably took 1% off the ticket, but considering the range of states McCain lost in -- he lost in Indiana -- you need a much bigger POD for Obama to lose.
So, any 'McCain wins' scenario has to involve a 100-EV swing against Obama, and probably a 5% popular vote swing.
Now, explain to me how Mitt Romney -- a fantastically unlikeable man, with no appeal to independents or Democrats, whose political nous enabled him to spend tens of millions of dollars to come third in the primaries while trashing his reputation for moderate competence -- manages that. Explain how any Republican manages that.
Palin probably took 1% off the ticket, but considering the range of states McCain lost in -- he lost in Indiana -- you need a much bigger POD for Obama to lose.
Palin was McCains only chance. Romney a southerner? He was goveneur in Massachutches and born in Michigan.
General Mung Beans
Banned
Romney had economic experience and most of the advantages of Palin but very few disadvantages so if this and few other factors combine McCain could squeeze out a victory.
I am not very good in that sort of area...No, he lacked the main advantage of Palin, which is that she's very charming, inspired the conservative base (to a far greater extent than Romney, the pick of the conservative establishment) and managed to temporarily throw the Obama campaign for a loop.
His disadvantages include a record of attacks on McCain during the campaign, his status as a multi-millionaire venture capitalist (precisely the wrong image to send during an economic crisis), continued debate over his record in Massachusetts (as per flip-flopping), and that the media clearly dislike him. (Always something to be kept in mind.) If he gets put on the ticket, he gets hit with a storm of 'you said this about McCain before, do you recant it?', 'you said this in Massachusetts, do you recant it?', and so forth, and he doesn't help the ticket in any particular state (except Michigan, where his coattails are dubious at best.)
General Mung Beans
Banned
His unique advantages would however include economic experience and not being looked at as stupid unlike Palin.
I wouldn't say that the latter is necceserily a 'unique' advantage...
It's always been that way. Show me any poll or study showing that Christians will vote for anyone they don't consider a Christian.
As I recall, they were still unhappy that he was formerly a liberal and while governor was a big government Republican ala Bush the Lesser.
Like I said, it would have been like 1980 or 1984.
No he wasn't.
You really don't understand US politics.
Ah, a good ole fashioned generalization. Gotta love 'em.
How 'bout you show me a poll proving your point, 'kay?
McCain was doomed from the get go.....even resurrecting Ronald Reagan and convincing him to be veep couldn't have brought Victory to McCain... he spent way too much time saying he was a maverick (when he wasn't) and that he deserved to be Prez because of his failed combat aerial mission made him a guest in the Hanoi Hilton....He just never set forth a cogent vision for the future.....