May 27th Uprising

On May 28th, 1990, there was a popular rumor that the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic would overthrow Lenin's statue in Yerevan and fly the Red-Blue-Orange Tricolor of the First Republic, in anniversery of the Independence Day of the First Armenian Republic from the Ottoman Empire. In response to this rumor, on May 27th, Soviet tanks entered Yerevan to protect the statue; several Armenian fedayis, members of the Hayots Azgayin Banak, or the Armenian National Army, a pseudo-political party, fought the Soviet troops, resulting in Russian and Armenian deaths. The day is a dark day in Armenian history, as the statue was protected, and Armenians were killed so near what would be the end of the USSR.

Now, instead of being defeated, what if the Armenians had been more successful? Heavy weapons depots were not used by the ANA, who felt that it might cause some sort of massacre. This close to the end of the USSR, however, it is highly unlikely that the Russians would actually engage in something like that. What if the Armenians had been able to throw back the Russians, or, more likely, at least hold them until the statue of Lenin would be brought down at midnight? Would there be no effects? Possible increased Russian aid to Azerbaijan? Or, perhaps, Armenia declaring independence, while Gorbachev is still in office?
Not aware of Tblisi, but I have heard of Lithuana, but that would still have no bearing on this; if they happened before, then they are before the POD, and if they happened after, then they could be butterflied out.

My thinking is that, if a Soviet state were to push the system, rather than slide while it is tottering, might it be the shock needed to have the Red Army rally around the coup? Perhaps if the Armenians fought the Russian army successfully (by this time the Red Army didn't think anyone within the borders could or would actually fight them and were sure of their strength); if they were to declare independence, might the US, wanting to ensure that the USSR would topple, recognize the small republic and send it aid?

Perhaps with the shame of being ousted from such a tiny country within their borders (as opposed to, say, Afghanistan), might convince soldiers that the reforms and Westernization aren't all they're cracked up to be and support the hard-liners?
I very much doubt the US would recognise independence - remember this is the time of Bush the elder, who even after Ukraine had declared sovereignty went to Kiev and told Rukh basically not to be so silly as to think they could ever be independent. He just didn't get it...

Grey Wolf