Margaret of Luxembourg does not die in 1341

[Jan Olbracht]

Margaret of Luxembourg, widowed Duchess of Bavaria, daughter of John of Luxembourg King of Bohemia, was planned to marry King of Poland Casimir III, also recently widowed, but she died in 1341 at age 28. Luxembourgs as replacement proposed Adelheid of Hesse to Casimir. Adelheid offered little political gains to Casimir compared to Margaret, who was member of powerful Luxembourg dynasty and in addition happened to be barren. Margaret disliked Casimir and was not very enthusiastic about that match, so it would not be happy marriage, although rather not as disastrous as marriage of Casimir and Adelheid IF they have son(s).
Assuming, that Margaret lives and marries Casimir (and has son with him born in early 1340s) what changes should we except? Casimir is getting closer to House of Luxembourg, but birth of heir is cooling his relations with Hungary-Angevins could not hope to get Polish throne if Casimir's son lives, so they have no reason to help Poles in Red Ruthenia other than stopping Lithuanians, although Casimir could still promise them, that they could get Red Ruthenia after his death (and, of course, Casimir's son could always predecease father), although just like with his succession treaties with Angevins, he could try to widthrew from these promises later.
What would Hungarians do and how would struggle over Halych-Volhynia end?
@krieger

 

[krieger]

Margaret of Luxembourg, widowed Duchess of Bavaria, daughter of John of Luxembourg King of Bohemia, was planned to marry King of Poland Casimir III, also recently widowed, but she died in 1341 at age 28. Luxembourgs as replacement proposed Adelheid of Hesse to Casimir. Adelheid offered little political gains to Casimir compared to Margaret, who was member of powerful Luxembourg dynasty and in addition happened to be barren. Margaret disliked Casimir and was not very enthusiastic about that match, so it would not be happy marriage, although rather not as disastrous as marriage of Casimir and Adelheid IF they have son(s).
Assuming, that Margaret lives and marries Casimir (and has son with him born in early 1340s) what changes should we except? Casimir is getting closer to House of Luxembourg, but birth of heir is cooling his relations with Hungary-Angevins could not hope to get Polish throne if Casimir's son lives, so they have no reason to help Poles in Red Ruthenia other than stopping Lithuanians, although Casimir could still promise them, that they could get Red Ruthenia after his death (and, of course, Casimir's son could always predecease father), although just like with his succession treaties with Angevins, he could try to widthrew from these promises later.
What would Hungarians do and how would struggle over Halych-Volhynia end?
@krieger

I think that Casimir would lean more towards Bohemia in his policies, and perhaps could even make a treaty promising Luxembourgs Polish throne in the case of his son not having a heir (but it's doubtful, because it would piss Angevins off). Louis I wouldn't want to risk being considered a traitor of Christendom by allying with Lithuanians, so if Casimir promised him Polish throne in case of Cas's son (probably named Vladislaus) not having an heir I think Hungarian suport would stay as it did OTL. Struggle over Halych-Volhynia will also end as IOTL. The changes will come further. Cas having a son means no killing of Baryczka (as Baryczka has no reason to criticize King) and there would be a question who would Cas's son marry. And will he sire any offspring? If said offspring is female, there will be a very…..interesting situation (and there would be opportunity for certain Lithuanian fellow to still show up).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Louis of Hungary IMHO would suggest his niece Elizabeth of Slavonia (born 1352) for young Vladislaus.

 

[krieger]

Louis of Hungary IMHO would suggest his niece Elizabeth of Slavonia (born 1352) for young Vladislaus.

It is possible, but she had some hereditary rights to the throne of Hungary, would Louis be willing to give them into Piast hands?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

It is possible, but she had some hereditary rights to the throne of Hungary, would Louis be willing to give them into Piast hands?

Elizabeth married IOTL after Louis' daughter was born, thus she was not first in line anymore, if Vladislaus was still unmarried in 1370 I think he would not be refused.

 

[krieger]

Elizabeth married IOTL after Louis' daughter was born, thus she was not first in line anymore, if Vladislaus was still unmarried in 1370 I think he would not be refused.

That's right, and a king of Poland is still better match than Philip of Taranto. But by making Margaret Casimir's wife we erase offspring of Hedwig of Sagan - so we need to find a new wife to Wilhelm, Count of Celje.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

That's right, and a king of Poland is still better match than Philip of Taranto. But by making Margaret Casimir's wife we erase offspring of Hedwig of Sagan - so we need to find a new wife to Wilhelm, Count of Celje.

Celje could find wife among Hungarian magnate families.
If Vladislaus II has daughter(s) only, who takes place of OTL Hedwig d'Anjou (including marriage with ruler of Lithuania) Poland would be better than IOTL anyway without period of Angevin rule, not being ruled by regents but by native king residing in Cracow.

 

[krieger]

Celje could find wife among Hungarian magnate families.
If Vladislaus II has daughter(s) only, who takes place of OTL Hedwig d'Anjou (including marriage with ruler of Lithuania) Poland would be better than IOTL anyway without period of Angevin rule, not being ruled by regents but by native king residing in Cracow.

Lack of rule of Louis I means that "restitutionary comitee" isn't enacted and a lot of estates is going to stay in King's hands. It also means that Koszyce privilege is never given.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Lack of rule of Louis I means that "restitutionary comitee" isn't enacted and a lot of estates is going to stay in King's hands. It also means that Koszyce privilege is never given.

And how do you see situation in Hungary after death of Louis (assuming butterflies are minimal)?

 

[krieger]

And how do you see situation in Hungary after death of Louis (assuming butterflies are minimal)?

The same as IOTL - Sigismund will be clashing with Charles of Durazzo.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

The same as IOTL - Sigismund will be clashing with Charles of Durazzo.

Is Hedwig d'Anjou still bethrothed to Wilhelm Habsburg? It could have quite interesting effects if Mary d'Anjou still dies childless (although assumption, that she would still fall from her horse is summit of determinism).

 

[krieger]

Is Hedwig d'Anjou still bethrothed to Wilhelm Habsburg? It could have quite interesting effects if Mary d'Anjou still dies childless (although assumption, that she would still fall from her horse is summit of determinism).

There is no reason, why she shouldn't be betrothed to Wilhelm Habsburg.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think an alliance Lokietek with Ryksa via a marriage of Agnes of Bohemia and Casimir III is also possible, this bolsters the legitimacy of Casimir III and Lokietek, this is better than a marriage with Bona or Marguerite of Luxembourg.