Malê Rising

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
You just came close to reading my mind about one of the possible outcomes for Alsace-Lorraine, right down to it being one of the prototypes for the weakening of the Westphalian system. If you want, you can PM me and I'll tell you what I have in mind (subject to intermediate events working out as planned); I've been looking to run the idea by someone.

I like your direction, but that particular way you're attempting to arrive there.... I don't get it.

A-L remains the biggest problem I have with the series. Why it would have been created by France, in the face of more than a century of centralization. Why it would have been granted to Prussia, in spite of a defeat so thorough South Germany is in the French orbit. Why it would have been brought up by either side, at a time when autonomy was regarded as feudal - something you granted your colonies or forced on Asiatic powers to weaken them. Why it would match the OTL region so closely, so divergent from both the linguistic and historic frontiers.

But it does exist, and given that, a mixed arrangement doesn't seem unreasonable given the apparent end to the war.
 
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A-L remains the biggest problem I have with the series. Why it would have been created by France, in the face of more than a century of centralization. Why it would have been granted to Prussia, in spite of a defeat so thorough South Germany is in the French orbit. Why it would have been brought up by either side, at a time when autonomy was regarded as feudal - something you granted your colonies or forced on Asiatic powers to weaken them. Why it would match the OTL region so closely, so divergent from both the linguistic and historic frontiers.

But it does exist, and given that, a mixed arrangement doesn't seem unreasonable given the apparent end to the war.

If I may make a feeble attempt to justify what's happened so far: The Franco-Prussian War was a draw, not a thorough French victory; in fact, it would have been a Prussian win (albeit a narrow one) if Bavaria hadn't jumped in. Given that Alsace was the dry tinder that touched the war off, the hosts of the peace talks put pressure on France to give Prussia something it could call a gain, and France was wary enough of further conflict to agree. The southern German states gravitated to France and Austria because it was either that or Prussia, and although more and more of their people supported pan-Germanism, their rulers weren't as keen.

Nor was Alsace-Lorraine "granted to Prussia" - it's an integral part of France, with French law, French police and French taxes. The German-speaking residents have a limited degree of cultural autonomy - German-language schools, the right to do business with the government in German, the right to hold German festivals without being bothered, an elected council with a small budget for holding cultural activities, etc. It's a sop really - less "autonomy" as we conceive it than a prototype of the European national minority protocol. I don't think such an arrangement would be that far out of line for the 1870s, given that there are precedents in the treatment of Poles after the Congress of Vienna and (in TTL) the Greek-Ottoman condominium duchies.

If that doesn't satisfy, then I guess I'll just have to fall back on "sometimes strange things happen." :p

Anyway, the next update will cover India, Central Asia and Korea; thanks to you and Daztur for your guidance on East Asian matters.
 
Nor was Alsace-Lorraine "granted to Prussia" - it's an integral part of France, with French law, French police and French taxes. The German-speaking residents have a limited degree of cultural autonomy - German-language schools, the right to do business with the government in German, the right to hold German festivals without being bothered, an elected council with a small budget for holding cultural activities, etc. It's a sop really - less "autonomy" as we conceive it than a prototype of the European national minority protocol. I don't think such an arrangement would be that far out of line for the 1870s, given that there are precedents in the treatment of Poles after the Congress of Vienna and (in TTL) the Greek-Ottoman condominium duchies.

If that doesn't satisfy, then I guess I'll just have to fall back on "sometimes strange things happen." :p

You have to keep in mind that there was no big pressure against minority languages in France before the third republic. French was the national language and the one of culture but the active suppression of minority languages began with the mandatory primary education.
What was interesting was that Catholics were opposed to German rule while protestants were pro-German.

I wonder if Breton is going to fare better : you could have OTL a minister saying in 1927 that Breton was a threat to the linguistic unity of France. As much as I like my country and the third republic, this policy was quite bad.

To comment on the whole TL, this is good, you know how to write (I particuraly liked the two French-African you wrote about). I got the feeling we could have a change of constitution in France before the end of the war : a Restauration, a Republic who knows? But I really like how you surprise us every time, so I hope for the best and I wait for the next update.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
I meant why the concession was granted to Prussia, not the land. Wasn't clear there. And I still don't get the borders, but I can let it go.
 
I'd totally forgotten about the earlier French concessions to Alsatian semi-autonomy.:eek:

It's kind of ambiguous. If France loses through total collapse, then I'd think Alsace moving into Germany would be a quite natural outcome. But I don't get the sense that France will disintegrate that abjectly.

Although their liberal Emperor has apparently irrevocably conceded power to the legislature, he's been notably absent from this war; no one is damning Napoleon, they're damning Leclerc. A possible outcome would be for the Emperor to hold a coup for the salvation of the Empire and take responsibility for ending the war while France still has the strength to defend itself. (Another would be for a die-hard reactionary bunch to hold the coup, then with the bankruptcy of their plans plain to all, for a liberal/radical coup to follow--that would send France down a path similar to Weimar Germany of course--which doesn't automatically doom them to a French edition of the Third Reich but does have such possibilities as hazards of course). An Imperial take-over can perhaps manage a peace with some grace, and any "stab in the back" mythology would have the house of Bonaparte to deal with.

Alsace's special status, set up as a concession of the last war, points both ways for the settlement of this one, assuming France is in some position to resist the worst and perhaps Britain is not too keen on seeing Germany glut itself overmuch. It's really the same question for Jonathan my last post on the subject was--what the heck do the Alsatians think about it?

The sort of quasi-autonomy indicated might have come across, in the past couple decades, as patronizing and hypocritical. But if managed with some sincerity and responsibility, it might be appreciated too. As I said it is my impression, perhaps erroneous, that in general Alsatians tended to regard themselves as French citizens who happened to speak German, and if the policies didn't backfire, their special status would tend to underscore that identity--both Germanic and yet, loyal French. If that happy outcome happened they won't want to leave France and join Germany, and even being carved off as a buffer state would rankle--they'd probably start plotting to rejoin France at the first opportunity, unless France got really ugly in the interim. It would be the same sort of mess as I imagined a punitive division of Belgium into a newly independent Flanders and a rump Walloon nation would make--the latter would have little reason not to want to join France, which would make it a counterproductive punishment of French attacks on Germany through Belgium and the pro-French government that connived in them.:rolleyes:

OTOH, maybe the Alsatians aren't happy--maybe they do feel patronized. Maybe the concession backfired not only in Alsace but in France at large, causing other French people to question their authentic identity as fellow citizens.

If so--Napoleon (I forget if it was III or IV who did this autonomy deal, probably III) may have conceded more than he meant to; now Alsace does have a special identity, one formally defined in French law, and if the Alsatians have any doubt about wanting to stay in France, they've been handed a framework for their own independent buffer state, or for being a land in Germany if that's what they want.

I realize, that still less than in the post-WWI environment of OTL, is there any guarantee any of the Powers that decide what will happen will concern themselves with what Alsatians want.:(

I'm just saying, the mood in that land puts spins and limits on what the Great Powers can make work, whatever they might mistakenly believe. Rip Alsace loose when they prefer France, and they'll look for ways to get back. Keep them French when they are fed up with French rule, and there will be trouble. Make them independent--even that can go wrong. Particularly as they would have to be neutralized, a prize suspended between two hungry rival powers, provoking both of them by its very existence...

But if an independent Alsace is what the Alsatians want, I daresay it can work despite adversity.

And of course, there is no just one Alsatian, there are many Alsatians, and each has a different opinion, and indeed the same person has moods that shift from one moment to the next; no matter what outcome is settled, someone will be disgruntled!:rolleyes: And others may repent of what they wished for when it comes true; still others who were dead against it at the time may come around belatedly.

Whether any Alsatians want to stay with France also depends on what becomes of France as a whole of course. I'd think, with a reasonably strong France surviving the war, quite a few, if not necessarily a majority, would regret leaving France and some might leave their homeland instead to live in their greater one, as OTL. But if France is a mess or hostile, probably not.
 
1896 is a full generation from 1863; in fact, it is as far from 1863 as 1863 was from 1830. Assuming that an uprising occurred in the early 1860s in TTL (which I think it would, because the underlying disputes over conscription and Russification would still exist), there has been enough time for a new generation to grow up.

There was a reason why OTL the generation of '90 didn't have it's uprising. The january uprising was a catastrophe and achieved nothing besides the bleeding of nobility. The elites noticed that they are not able to sustain such losses again. They had to be replenished.
Then they noticed that the lower strata of society didn't support the uprising - it wasn't a peasants' thing. They even aregarded the tzar as the liberator as Alexander II gave them land. Great urbanization just started in Polish Kingdom. The masses were to be educated so the romantic ethos was replace by positivism - so called "work at the foundations".
While the regimes of Russia and Prussia became increasingly opressive during '80 of XIX century the Austrians were more and more lenient and they allowed even to cultivate Polish culture in Galicia (though they were careful to instigate tensions with Ukrainians in eastern Galicia, not to allow Poles to grow too much).


I anticipate that the nucleus of the rebellion will be the Polish trade unions, somewhat like 1905 in OTL. I've already mentioned that the unions of the Russian Empire are being radicalized due to the wartime industrial policies and labor conscription. In Russian Poland, this radicalization has taken on a nationalist cast, and the urban socialists have co-opted much of the nationalist movement.


Maybe, though I don't know if the socialist movement was at that time developed enough. In 1905 in OTL there were whole two generations since last uprising. Besides at that time romantic tendencies started to resurface again.


I agree that Austrian rule was no worse than Prussian, and in fact it was probably better: the Habsburg Empire wasn't a nation-state and it never tried to turn the Poles into Germans or Russians.


In the second half of century, yes. In the first half it was worst of the tree.


However, the Polish nationalists in TTL aren't simply looking to trade Austrian rule for German; instead, they want to establish their own state. They understand that such a state will have to be a German client kingdom, but believe that even so, they will be more masters in their own house than they are under the current arrangement. There is also widespread anger over conscription, martial law and wartime taxation. In addition, Austrian rule in Galicia depended heavily on the support of the nobility, and the union-dominated uprising that is about to break out in TTL is as much against the magnates as it is against the imperial powers.


Probably. The question is how coordinated would be the uprising. The urban working class would have problems with finding a common ground with peasants.


I anticipate that the uprising in Galicia will be the reverse of the 1846 revolt - as in 1846, it will pit the peasantry and urban working class against the gentry, but this time the gentry will side with Austria and the peasants with the revolution.

I'm not sure. Magnates would probably side with the government as they have much to lose in revolution. But the lower and middle nobility would rather seek their role in the uprising. First they wouldn't want to be perceived as unpatriotic, second they would like to be on top in the resurrected Poland, third they were the educated elites who reserved Polish ethos, nobody else. Their dreams came true: the opressors fought each other, the peasants and the workers were mutining against them - better opportunity wouldn't come ever.
 
On Poland - while some German "Drang nach Osten" fanatics may dream about annexing Russian Poland, I think the idea of a client kingdom will prevail - after all, such a client kingdom was half-heartedly implemented even IOTL, when German and AH troops were actually occupying the area. Whether the client kingdom will also comprise Poznan and Galicia will mainly depend on how important any Polish support will be in regaining them.
Let me float an idea for a Central-Power-created Poland I had for an AH scenario that I probably won't use, but which would fit into your general post-Westphalian framework. The construction was a Poland consisting of three Grand Duchies (Poznan with a Hohenzollern Duke, Cracow / Galicia with a Habsburg Duke, and Warsaw with a Wettin Duke). Poznan and Cracow would be under mixed sovereignty - subjects could opt either for Polish nationality and law or for German (in Poznan) or AH (in Cracow) nationality and law to apply. Depending on their choices, they'd serve in the Polish / German /AH armies. In case of conflict, German law would prevail in Poznan and Austrian law in Cracow. The Duchies would have their own parliaments and governments, that could create rules and laws that would apply to all nationals in the Duchy. There would be a central Sejm, which would create laws applying to the Polish nationals and to everyone in the Duchy of Warsaw, and which would elect the King of Poland out of the three Dukes.
Now, ITTL, there needs to be no acommodation for the Austrians, and a special status with two sets of citizens and laws would only apply for Poznan (or the parts of it that would become part of the Polish Kingdom). Considering the divergent legal systems and traditions in the German, Austrian, and Russian parts of the reconstituted Poland, a division into three Grand Duchies still would make sense, and, depending on how decisive a putative BOG victory would be, a role for a line of the Habsburgs and perhaps the Romanovs as Grand Dukes of Poland might be the sugaring that makes the loss of the territory easier to swallow.
 
Talk about strange bedfellows. This seems like it will push the US closer to entering the war on its own side, since the French and British seem happy enough to combine to stop American ambitions.

Wow.

I dont doubt this will annoy the US, but the coup had no official backing, and if the us is smart, theyll disavow the actions of their citizens.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
I just had a thought, biking home from work:

Alsace-Lorraine is granted limited autonomy; a generation later France will (partially) lose it. The Ottoman Empire grants special status to Crete and Thessaly; then is forced to hand them off to Greece without a shot fired. A different special status is intended to keep the Bulgarians quiet; then the Bulgarians almost hand the whole of the Balkans (and with it, Stamboul) to the Austrians and Russians. Hungary is granted a separate crown; and cripples the Hapsburgs until their eventual demise. The British have given the Irish an inch (talking about local government); and guess what's about to happen on that island?

All this people power is nice and all, but wouldn't it be teaching world governments a very unpleasant lesson?
 
You have to keep in mind that there was no big pressure against minority languages in France before the third republic. French was the national language and the one of culture but the active suppression of minority languages began with the mandatory primary education. What was interesting was that Catholics were opposed to German rule while protestants were pro-German.

I wonder if Breton is going to fare better : you could have OTL a minister saying in 1927 that Breton was a threat to the linguistic unity of France. As much as I like my country and the third republic, this policy was quite bad.

One of the drawbacks to the faster French industrialization and political modernization in TTL has been a greater pressure for a uniform language and culture, especially after the rise of the nationalist right wing. That has been one of the problems faced by the Africans in France (albeit mitigated by their high rate of military service) and is also a problem for the Alsatians.

As you have guessed, though, France will go through some major constitutional changes in the near future, though, and the rights of national minorities will be one of the things affected. By 1927, Breton - and maybe Occitan? - might well be in a better position.

To comment on the whole TL, this is good, you know how to write (I particuraly liked the two French-African you wrote about). I got the feeling we could have a change of constitution in France before the end of the war : a Restauration, a Republic who knows? But I really like how you surprise us every time, so I hope for the best and I wait for the next update.

Thanks, hope I can keep doing so!

Alsace's special status, set up as a concession of the last war, points both ways for the settlement of this one, assuming France is in some position to resist the worst and perhaps Britain is not too keen on seeing Germany glut itself overmuch. It's really the same question for Jonathan my last post on the subject was--what the heck do the Alsatians think about it?

The Alsatians' opinion may, unfortunately, be the least important factor in deciding what happens to them after the war. In the event of a BOG victory, their fate will be influenced much more strongly by how much the Germans want to punish France, how strongly France can resist an attempt to inflict such punishment, and what attitude the North Germans' allies (especially Britain) will take toward the postwar settlement.

Actually, there will be one way the Alsatians might be able to make their opinions matter - if there's an invasion of Alsace at any point, the degree to which they resist will give the BOGs an idea of how hard it would be to impose any solution on them.

In any event, as you say, there are many shades of opinion among the Alsatians; a majority are probably satisfied with the current arrangement, but others do see it as patronizing, and the minority of separatists are certainly unhappy. We'll hear from some of them in due course.

There was a reason why OTL the generation of '90 didn't have it's uprising. The january uprising was a catastrophe and achieved nothing besides the bleeding of nobility. The elites noticed that they are not able to sustain such losses again. They had to be replenished.
Then they noticed that the lower strata of society didn't support the uprising - it wasn't a peasants' thing. They even aregarded the tzar as the liberator as Alexander II gave them land. Great urbanization just started in Polish Kingdom. The masses were to be educated so the romantic ethos was replace by positivism - so called "work at the foundations".

The situation is different in TTL, though - with Russia distracted by a worldwide war, and with the tide starting to turn in favor of the BOGs, many Polish nationalists will feel that the time is ripe. Also, because of the Russian loss in the War of the Balkan Alliance and the subsequent turn to the hard right, the Russification program in Poland has been more repressive than OTL.

In the meantime, the urbanization that you correctly mention has led to the growth of an urban working class and trade union movement, which has become as radical as the trade unions in Russia proper. This will be a modernist uprising rather than a romantic one (although the romanticism will not be completely absent), which is another reason for the magnates to be dubious about it.

Probably. The question is how coordinated would be the uprising. The urban working class would have problems with finding a common ground with peasants.

Granted. It may end up being several loosely coordinated uprisings rather than a single one; certainly, the organization and ideology of the uprising in Galicia will be different from the rebellion in Russian Poland.

I'm not sure. Magnates would probably side with the government as they have much to lose in revolution. But the lower and middle nobility would rather seek their role in the uprising. First they wouldn't want to be perceived as unpatriotic, second they would like to be on top in the resurrected Poland, third they were the educated elites who reserved Polish ethos, nobody else. Their dreams came true: the opressors fought each other, the peasants and the workers were mutining against them - better opportunity wouldn't come ever.

Fair enough, although in both Russian Poland and Galicia, there will be challenges to their right to lead; the urban trade unions won't have much use for them, and (as in 1846) many of the Galician peasants will fear that the gentry will be worse oppressors than the Habsburgs.

On Poland - while some German "Drang nach Osten" fanatics may dream about annexing Russian Poland, I think the idea of a client kingdom will prevail - after all, such a client kingdom was half-heartedly implemented even IOTL, when German and AH troops were actually occupying the area. Whether the client kingdom will also comprise Poznan and Galicia will mainly depend on how important any Polish support will be in regaining them.

That's pretty much what I had in mind. Your proposal for a Poland of three grand duchies is interesting, and something like that may well be proposed, but if the North Germans win big, they won't have to worry about appeasing Austrian or Russian sensibilities. I do think the Grand Duchy of Posen will be resurrected, though, and in time - by the 1930s, say - there may be a non-Westphalian union between that grand duchy (still part of Germany) and the Polish state. The kind of citizenship laws and divisions of sovereignty you propose might be very workable for such a union; I'll keep them in mind.

I dont doubt this will annoy the US, but the coup had no official backing, and if the us is smart, theyll disavow the actions of their citizens.

That's certainly what they'll do if they're smart, and the American government (which would have been heartily embarrassed if the coup had succeeded) will be inclined to be smart, but it's an election year, and there will be politicians who see mileage in waving the bloody shirt.

I just had a thought, biking home from work:

Alsace-Lorraine is granted limited autonomy; a generation later France will (partially) lose it. The Ottoman Empire grants special status to Crete and Thessaly; then is forced to hand them off to Greece without a shot fired. A different special status is intended to keep the Bulgarians quiet; then the Bulgarians almost hand the whole of the Balkans (and with it, Stamboul) to the Austrians and Russians. Hungary is granted a separate crown; and cripples the Hapsburgs until their eventual demise. The British have given the Irish an inch (talking about local government); and guess what's about to happen on that island?

All this people power is nice and all, but wouldn't it be teaching world governments a very unpleasant lesson?

Yup. There are counterexamples - Poland and Bavaria, for instance, where repression of people power led to rebellion - but many governments will indeed draw that lesson. There will be a postwar reaction, a long 1849 to the Great War's 1848, as governments try to take back the concessions they made during the war or at least prevent populism from advancing. It will start during the 1900s and really pick up steam during the 1910s. The reaction won't happen everywhere, and it won't succeed in all the places it does happen, but as I've mentioned before, 1915 to 1925 will be nasty in several parts of the world.

It will be that reaction, and the response to it, that shapes the post-Westphalian order far more than the war itself does. And this will be the time when Abacarism becomes definitively identified with anti-colonialism.

When's the next update, Jonathan?

See below; you have but to ask. (Note: this won't work all the time. :p)
 
Bengal, Siberia and Korea
January 1896

UnmQacS.jpg

The gang descended on the village just before dawn, as the men were leaving for the fields. The villagers were still shaking off sleep, and there was no thought of resistance, especially once the invaders showed their knives. With practiced skill, they isolated the ones they wanted, all strong men, between sixteen and thirty. Two or three grabbed each victim, and they hustled the struggling men to the small square that lay between the huts.

“You men have the honor of joining the Indian Army!” the leader shouted. “We’ll march you to Calcutta and you’ll take the oath. You’ll get fed and paid, a lot better than you pigs are living here, and you’ll do something for your country.”

There was protest from the men and wailing from the wives and mothers. There always was. The press-gang had learned not to care. The zamindar was paying them well to do this, and he was getting – who knew? Money? Titles? Land? No doubt the Raj would meet whatever price he wanted; the British needed soldiers badly, and with the Congress off fighting the rajas, recruitment had dried up. Rich men hiring poor men to join in return for the bounty, zamindars sending press-gangs out to their peasants – it was all happening, no matter how loudly the women complained.

The press-gangers had learned so well to ignore the protests, in fact, that it took them just a second too long to realize that the noise had changed, and that they hadn’t been the only ones waiting in ambush outside the village.

Knives flashed in the predawn light, and the leader was cut down before he could say a word. Then the enemies, whoever they were, closed in. It was a brutal fight at close quarters, but it lasted only seconds. The press-gangers were loyal to the zamindar and they liked the pay he gave them, but it wasn’t worth fighting to the death over. One of them, realizing they were outnumbered, turned and fled; the others, seeing him run, followed.

“Tell the zamindar his bullies aren’t welcome here!” the enemy captain called.

The villagers milled around, still stunned by the speed and ferocity with which things had happened. They’d heard of rival press-gangs fighting over recruits, and the women and old men ran to the newly-released prisoners in a futile gesture of protection.

But it wasn’t that. “Go on home,” the captain said. “We’ll sign you up if you’re willing – you can join our regiments and fight in Italy – but we won’t take you if you’re not.”

There were whispered conferences, but the women still clung to their men, not certain if it was a trick. And there was something else…

“The zamindar,” protested the village headman. “He’ll send more men here. He’ll want revenge for this.”

“He will,” the captain answered. “Which is why we brought you guns. And Ahmed here will stay with you and teach you how to use them. He got his arm shot off in the war, so they sent him home, but he still knows how to fight. He’ll make an army of you, and the zamindar’s thieves can go to hell.”

“Ahmed?” one of the villagers asked, looking at the scarred veteran who had stepped forward. “A Muslim?”

“A Congress man. And an Indian.”

*******

wwuojqB.jpg

Major John O’Malley shivered in his greatcoat. Winter on the steppes made January in Ireland seem like high summer; the cold was worse than anything he’d known in thirty years of soldiering, and he wondered how anything living could stand it. But the fur-clad Kazakhs clearly could; they were as hardy as their ponies, and they looked as unconcerned as if they were out for a morning’s promenade.

“We’re almost there,” he said in his painfully-learned Kazakh. “Careful of patrols.”

“Careful, always careful,” answered one of the nomad officers – Yerbol, his name was. “Do we always have to hide like mice?”

It was a joke, but O’Malley took it dead seriously. “You can go to Yusuf Celer if you want – he’s the one talking about training an army and building a state. But I’ll tell you something. It won’t work.”

“We can’t fight the Russians?” Now Yerbol was also serious, his honor insulted.

“You can fight them. But not army to army – not yet, not until we can get you more cannon and machine guns. You’re better soldiers than they are” – it seemed politic to say that, and it was true often enough – “but a man with a knife can’t fight a man with a gun. You can’t win by opposing strength with weakness – you have to oppose strength with strength, and you’re stronger on razzia than fighting in line.”

Just then, O’Malley saw a glint of metal in the distance. “Like here, and now.”

In a few minutes the eighty men had reached the railroad tracks and begun unloading the explosive charges from the sleigh. There were no Russians in sight, and Yerbol’s feigned pique had turned to very real glee; a couple of the men were singing an impromptu song about how the Russian locomotives would meet their doom, and how their coals would go to stoke the fires that awaited the Russian soldiers in hell.

The major didn’t join in the song; he looked out anxiously to where the sentries were riding, hoping that the enemy hadn’t anticipated them. But no ambush came, and the Kazakhs began riding in from the points where they’d set the charges. There was a sudden thunder, signaling an explosion half a mile to the east; then another the same distance to the west, two more slightly closer, and two more closer yet.

“Ride, ride!” Yerbol shouted as his men lit the closest fuse. The Kazakhs vaulted onto their ponies and rode south for their very lives as the explosions continued; it seemed only seconds later that the largest blast of all blew the water tower to kingdom come. The nomads were cheering and yelling, “Yerbol batyr ! O’Malley batyr!”

Batyr – hero. So they were heroes now, all for blowing up some tracks.

O’Malley looked back in the saddle; darkness hid the scene, and what little he could see was screened by dust, but he knew that a mile of the Trans-Siberian Railroad lay in ruins.

“They’ll have to guard every foot of track now!” Yerbol called.

“That, or move things across this part of Siberia by sled.” Either way, it would slow the Russians down, and buy time for the men in the grand tents to the south to build their republic.

“If they do, O’Malley batyr, we’ll be there.”

“We will. But there’s a supply train we need to catch first.”

*******

vDhcekW.jpg

There must be a reason they are here
, Seong Il Pae reflected. Surely there was a story behind the column of troops advancing up the road toward him: maybe the militarists had won out in the struggle to control the Japanese court, maybe Britain had finally made Tokyo an offer that was too good to refuse, maybe there had simply been one anti-Japanese riot too many. No doubt it was all the subject of learned discussion in Paris or New York, or in the chanceries of Seoul.

None of that mattered to him now, though. Why the Japanese were here mattered less than that they were here, and that he was here to face them.

Beside him, Ivan Teterin watched the column impassively – something else for which the reason mattered less than the fact. Teterin had been a military officer in the past, and a high-ranking one; Seong was sure of that. But he’d also been other things, and Seong wasn’t quite certain what they were. And now – now, he held no rank in the Korean army, but if he gave orders, the soldiers would follow them. Even Seong would follow them. He’d been to the Russian military academy, like most of the new generation of Korean officers, and he’d learned to respect the Russians’ voice of experience.

“Soon,” said Teterin quietly. Seong wasn’t sure if he was talking to himself or to the Korean officers, but he could see the same thing. The Japanese column was almost within rifle range, and they were unlimbering their field guns. The few pieces of mountain artillery the Koreans had managed to drag through the snowbound roads were firing already, but Seong’s force seemed pitifully small next to the enemy.

“Now, daeryeong,” Teterin said. That was Seong’s rank; it wasn’t one his father would have recognized, but the army had completely redone its system of rank and command in the past decade. Teterin spoke as one offering a respectful suggestion, but Seong recognized the words as the order they were, and called out orders to his own men.

Machine-gun and rifle fire burst from the Korean positions, and the first rank of the Japanese column went down as if scythed. But the Japanese kept coming. Koreans began falling, and the air was full of the noise of battle: the crack of bullets, shouted orders, screams of pain.

By now it was clear that Seong’s force wouldn’t be able to stop the Japanese; the enemy artillery was pounding his makeshift barricades to pieces, and the advancing column would soon be in a position to get around his flank and pour machine-gun fire into his troops. He hoped that was as obvious to the Japanese as it was to him, and it seemed to be; sensing victory within their grasp, the Japanese officers urged their men into a run.

And as they did, the Righteous Army descended from the hillsides.

One more thing not to wonder too much about, Seong thought as they charged. The peasants hated the Japanese, and they were loyal to the queen who’d given them the land she confiscated from the rebellious gentry. For that, they were willing to accept a great deal – even that the loyal gentry still had their land – and they were willing to fight. And as long as that was so, who was Seong to question the strange rites they held over Russian icons or their commanders’ claim of prophecy?

The peasants were poorly armed; they had no artillery or machine guns, and some lacked even rifles. The Japanese gunfire took a fearful toll. But there were so many of them – they outnumbered the Japanese column as the column did Seong’s regulars – and when they got to close quarters, they had no mercy. Slowly, the Japanese began pulling back; they retreated in good order and worked a slaughter on any peasants foolish enough to pursue them, but they retreated.

“And now we pull back,” Teterin said.

“We don’t stay here? We can do this to them again.”

“They’ll have more men when they come back, and they’ll have a cavalry screen. We’ll find another ambush point further north, and slow them down again.”

Slow them down. Seong hoped he could slow them down enough to let the main army and the Russian auxiliaries finish their defensive line, and that the troops on that line would be able to do more than that. If they couldn’t, then all his Russian training and all the Righteous Army’s fanaticism wouldn’t matter.

But that could wait for tomorrow. He’d survived today.
 
Ah Jonathan, sometimes I just stay silent after a post because you seem to have said it all so clearly and artistically. But I know it bothers authors to hear nothing, even when we say that's because they did good.

So although I think we've discussed this before--how on Earth do you always find such apt and gorgeous and striking pictures?

:cool::cool:

Unless it means sometimes updates are delayed days, weeks or longer because you are stuck looking for the right picture and not finding it yet...that would just be awful!

Except maybe it isn't; your updates come when they will (notably fast and they feel pretty regular too--I've never noted the intervals but they never seem to be coming in bursts nor do we suffer long droughts). And so far, just about every one I can think of has had the perfect picture paired to each section, and you usually do several sections.

If it isn't a proper update, in your view, without that ideal image to go with it, I guess it's entirely worth it we might have to wait a day or two longer to see the post--if they always come with the more than thousand words worth of each of those you find.

I just can't imagine how you do it.
 
For the Korean stuff, based on the PMs I traded with Jonathan Edelstein, where butterflies really hit Korea is during the *Imo Incident or TTL's equivalent: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imo_Incident

I believe that the Chinese were too busy to send help against the mutineers and the government gambled and decided to reach out for Russian help. Things proceeded for there as you can see.

My wild-ass guess about what's happening in the war is that the Japanese are landing in Busan unless they're willing to chance heavier resistance and land in Incheon. A lot of the resistance is probably coming out of Jeolla in the SW...
 

Tamandaré

Banned
Jonathan Eldestein, I must say, this is quite a excellent story you are making!

Huh, I am divided in my alleigances. On one side, I root for Grão-Pará to stay independent, for it is my land, and I can't bear the idea of Belém being ocuppation by the southern barbarians once again, like a Cabanagem 2.0. Talking about Grão-Pará, I like how you perceived properly how a war would be fought in the Amazon, rather than assuming it would be fought like in other parts of the world, with armies hilariously marching into Malária + Denge + Yellow Ferver country.

On the other hand, its Monarchist Brazil ruled by Ultramontane Empress Isabel that liberated the slaves and put the Coroneis in their place - In the grave.

And her friends are the awesomely cool French of this TL.

I feel torn! (I do have one sure thing - I hope the Argentineans lose, badly. Take that, Argentina!)

Some thoughts of mine on this tale:

1. If the Northern Germans win and get their dreamed unified Germany (Grobdeustchland with Austria included optional), its gonna be a hellish hollow victory: I can easily see Northern Germany ending up hollow and empty of young, working-age people, and full of devastation; South Germans searching for a job will have a excellent time.

Also, Considering they just had a slugging match with the French, the Russians AND the Austro-Hungarians, only reason they didn't break is Indian Manpower and the wonders of Trench Warfare. But India is far-away, and the more the war continues, the more the British get more and more risk from recruiting troops from India, and the more they will have to concede; I wonder how much until the Indians say "no more" and the British aquicesce.

2. Grão-Pará seems a veritable mess. I really can't predict a winner there. So when will someone smuggle Rubber Seeds to Malasya, or will someone never do it? As someone who lives in the shadow of the Belle Epoque, walking daily under giantic mango trees planted during that interesting time, in a city that still remembers it to this day, I would love to see the Rubber Boom continue someway, perhaps ending in a happier way than OTL.

3. With more foreigners going around Grão-Pará, will they start to find the immense mineral wealth that can be found in Pará and the country in general? Something like Carajás could drive another war. Also, what about traditional goods from the Amazon? Will we see a lot of returning veterans from the BOG and the FAR return to their countries singing praises about Açai, Cupuaçu, Guaraná, Pará Nuts ("Brazil Nuts", PLEASE PLEASE don't ever call them "Brazil Nuts", its Castanha-do-Pará not Castanha-do-Brasil, but Pará Nuts will work too), Bacuri, local fishes like Pirarucu, etc? That (trading local commodities not obtainable elsewhere) would be a lot more healthy to the local economies than rubber or minerals.

4. How are the Portuguese doing with the whole "Finally get our pathway through the middle of Africa" project? Its no pink map, but it works.

5. Which side China leans to?

6. Kurds, what was their status under the Ottomans here?
 
Good update.

I wonder what the world will be like after the Great War.

Will there be another one (it seems likely, IMO, given your description of the 20th Century as a "long" one)?
 
So although I think we've discussed this before--how on Earth do you always find such apt and gorgeous and striking pictures?

I agree with Shevek.....where do you find the pictures!?

I find nearly all of them with Google Images searches - a few keywords generally turns up something appropriate, or at least something usable. A few come from the art book I brought home from Nigeria last year, and a couple here and there from other sources.

Anyway, I'm glad to see that the pictures are appreciated. I try to make sure that every update is illustrated, both to add another dimension to the story and to make sure that someone who is paging through the archives can tell the updates from the comments at a glance.

I'm a bit worried about keeping it up through the present, given that the landscapes, especially in Africa, will be more and more different from the ones we know. How would I find a picture of Ilorin in TTL's twenty-first century? But lo and behold, Google Images does turn up some possibilities, so maybe I'll manage after all.

For the Korean stuff, based on the PMs I traded with Jonathan Edelstein, where butterflies really hit Korea is during the *Imo Incident or TTL's equivalent: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imo_Incident

I believe that the Chinese were too busy to send help against the mutineers and the government gambled and decided to reach out for Russian help. Things proceeded for there as you can see

This is correct. The executive summary is that, because Britain and France were incrementally more involved in Africa during the 1850s and 1860s than they were in OTL, they had marginally less resources to devote to China. This meant that they provided slightly less help in defeating the Taiping rebellion (which still happened; Hong Xiuquan's visions began either before the POD or soon after, and the underlying social issues would remain), leading to the rebellion lasting a year longer and the imperial government coming out in a weaker position. China was wracked with provincial rebellion and court factionalism throughout the 1870s and into the 1880s, and was in no position to intervene in Korean politics. This forced Queen Min into an alliance with Russia, and also forced her to overhaul the military and engage in very haphazard and incomplete land reform. The Righteous Army is basically the Donghaks, but in TTL they're pro-government and have taken on some Russian influences in addition to the Christian-shamanist syncretism of OTL.

And yes, the Japanese landing was at Busan.

Huh, I am divided in my alleigances.

I can understand. One thing is for certain, though: whoever wins will not be able to ignore the changes that have taken place in Grão Pará, because it's a very hard place to rule against the will of its people.

If the Northern Germans win and get their dreamed unified Germany (Grobdeustchland with Austria included optional), its gonna be a hellish hollow victory: I can easily see Northern Germany ending up hollow and empty of young, working-age people, and full of devastation; South Germans searching for a job will have a excellent time.

The Southern German states are in the war too; they aren't suffering as badly as the North German Confederation, but they'll also have big holes in the working-age cohort. They'll be able to fill only part of the demand for labor; the rest will be filled by more or less permanent changes in attitudes toward women working outside the home, and by immigration from the German colonial empire and from central and eastern Europe.

India is far-away, and the more the war continues, the more the British get more and more risk from recruiting troops from India, and the more they will have to concede; I wonder how much until the Indians say "no more" and the British aquicesce.

They're running into trouble already; as the previous update shows, the tensions between the Congress and the maharajahs (in which the Raj has been forced to reluctantly back the latter) have slowed recruitment, and the British are turning to more coercive methods of the type that were used in World War I in OTL. This is setting up even more conflict between the Congress, the Raj, the landowning class and the peasantry, which Britain will have to find some way to resolve if it wants India to continue being a net supplier of troops rather than a drain on them.

With more foreigners going around Grão-Pará, will they start to find the immense mineral wealth that can be found in Pará and the country in general? Something like Carajás could drive another war. Also, what about traditional goods from the Amazon? Will we see a lot of returning veterans from the BOG and the FAR return to their countries singing praises about Açai, Cupuaçu, Guaraná, Pará Nuts ("Brazil Nuts", PLEASE PLEASE don't ever call them "Brazil Nuts", its Castanha-do-Pará not Castanha-do-Brasil, but Pará Nuts will work too), Bacuri, local fishes like Pirarucu, etc?

This will very likely be the case; with European troops fighting in Grão Pará, there will be much more attention paid to the country's resources, and there will be many more people who have experienced what it has to offer. The rubber boom won't last forever - the weak government of Pará can't keep secrets well, and even now it is being driven mostly by wartime demand - but the country might be able to build a more diverse economic base after the war. A good deal will also depend on how well it will be able to invest the wealth that is flowing in now.

How are the Portuguese doing with the whole "Finally get our pathway through the middle of Africa" project? Its no pink map, but it works.

You'll find out fairly soon. Basically, they're well along in their conquest of the Yeke kingdom - there's little love lost between Msiri and his subject kings, so the Portuguese have been able to win some of the tributary kingdoms over to their side, and are subduing the rest with the help of several out-of-work Omani princes. They're still angry about Msiri getting weapons from the German governor of South Kivu, though, and while they don't want to risk open war against the BOGs, the situation in southern Africa is still tense and a wrong move could lead to trouble.

Which side China leans to?

China - which by this time has overcome many of its internal problems and is reforming under pressure of the Japanese war - is neutral but leans toward the FAR because the BOGs are courting Japan. If the Russians are smart, they'll agree to recognize China's nominal overlordship of Korea in exchange for help against the Japanese invasion, and at least some of the Russians in that theater are smart.

Kurds, what was their status under the Ottomans here?

More or less the same as any other minority - left alone as long as they pay their taxes and don't make trouble. Right now, they're actually playing an important role in smuggling arms through Persia to the Central Asian rebels.

I wonder what the world will be like after the Great War. Will there be another one (it seems likely, IMO, given your description of the 20th Century as a "long" one)

I described TTL's 20th century as "long" because, in social and political terms, it begins with the Great War. OTL's "long 19th century" ended in 1914; TTL's "long 20th" began in 1893, with the war sweeping away the norms of the Victorian age.

It's been established that there will be no war comparable to the Great War until at least 1958, although there will be many smaller conflicts. There might be another global war after 1958, although by then, there will be changes in the international system and collective security arrangements that make such a conflict less likely.
 
The Southern German states are in the war too; they aren't suffering as badly as the North German Confederation, but they'll also have big holes in the working-age cohort. They'll be able to fill only part of the demand for labor; the rest will be filled by more or less permanent changes in attitudes toward women working outside the home, and by immigration from the German colonial empire and from central and eastern Europe.

It seemed appropriate to the quotes and such we've seen that nobody emerges very happily from this war...on the other hand, I get the impression that the end results won't be quite as, well, _apocalyptic_ as OTL with its fall of four empires and the emergence of the USSR.

Bruce
 
It seemed appropriate to the quotes and such we've seen that nobody emerges very happily from this war...on the other hand, I get the impression that the end results won't be quite as, well, _apocalyptic_ as OTL with its fall of four empires and the emergence of the USSR.

Bruce

I don't know, it sounds like labor is going to throw a fit once the war ends. A lot of the last couple updates have focussed on Labor relations going more and more poorly ITTL. Especially Germany, although a communist germany would probably work out half decently.
 
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